Sanchez Projection March 2016

[Jimcanuck]

Multiple people have talked about how Sanchez is improving, but that probably isn't true. The pitcher we saw last year was much the same guy that was drafted: big fastball with spotty command, and nothing else. That's not to say he can't improve, but he hasn't really done it yet, and most pitchers don't at 24 years old.

 

He's added a cutter, working on a change, and is repeating his delivery more consistently than before.

[burlingtonbandit]

Multiple people have talked about how Sanchez is improving, but that probably isn't true. The pitcher we saw last year was much the same guy that was drafted: big fastball with spotty command, and nothing else. That's not to say he can't improve, but he hasn't really done it yet, and most pitchers don't at 24 years old.

 

I think the changes with the new sports science dept. give him a better chance to improve though. Atkins has talked about at length how baseball has done a great job in evaluating talent but there is still a huge void at developing and getting better. I think that reflects this board in a way.

[BTS]

He's added a cutter, working on a change, and is repeating his delivery more consistently than before.

 

We don't know if the cutter and change are actually any good, and the 'repeating his delivery more consistently' is basically on the level of 'best shape of his life' in terms of spring training narratives. I basically think he's been capable of pitching in an MLB pen for like 4 years using just his fastball, and I'll believe he's improved when I see his other pitches being used effectively vs. MLB hitters.

[Angrioter]

Gausman >> Sanchez.

 

Os suxx

[GD]

Not sure I understand trying to hard?? trying at the same level I always have -- a little bit looney, a bit mean to Grant, horrible spelling, horrible grammar, willing to admit I am wrong, a little unhinged

 

I think you're perfect Olerud

[Dick_Pole]

He's added a cutter, working on a change, and is repeating his delivery more consistently than before.

 

So basically he's doing everything that every pitcher with a shot at an MLB job should be doing. Also, just because he's working on those pitches doesn't mean they will get hitters out or stay in the strike zone. One good spring start doesn't make a career.

 

That being said I hope this skinny f***er is like 18-6 with a 2.50 ERA and finishes second in the Cy Young voting to another one of the Jays' pitchers. It would be nice to be wrong but as a fan I'm not prepared to pencil him in with 33 starts at the #5 spot for 2016. If he's starting the season in the rotation he needs a very short leash.

[Jimcanuck]

One good spring start doesn't make a career.

 

Really?

[Dick_Pole]

Really?

 

No, I was lying.

[Daniel Labude]

Not really in the same way. It just feels that way because you were in the center of the biggest Hoffman debate.

 

That's probably true

[highhard2]

So basically he's doing everything that every pitcher with a shot at an MLB job should be doing. Also, just because he's working on those pitches doesn't mean they will get hitters out or stay in the strike zone. One good spring start doesn't make a career.

 

That being said I hope this skinny f***er is like 18-6 with a 2.50 ERA and finishes second in the Cy Young voting to another one of the Jays' pitchers. It would be nice to be wrong but as a fan I'm not prepared to pencil him in with 33 starts at the #5 spot for 2016. If he's starting the season in the rotation he needs a very short leash.

 

With as many as 8 viable starters they should all be on a short leash including the ones making 12-13M/year and Stroman too.

[Dick_Pole]

With as many as 8 viable starters they should all be on a short leash including the ones making 12-13M/year and Stroman too.

 

It's a good thing that baseball teams hire managers instead of having random reactionary fans make all the decisions because that would be a very bad idea. Under no circumstance should Stroman have a short leash even if he got s***** results for his first few games unless there's a noticeable decline in velocity, likely due to injury.

 

And neither Dickey, Happ nor Estrada should be managed with nearly as short of a leash as Sanchez. Those pitchers has demonstrated various degrees of success over multiple years in MLB. You generally know what you're getting with them. We still don't know about Sanchez. Although I admit it will be tempting to see Dickey kicked to the pen if he's as much of a gas can as he was in the first three months of last year pitching after the fourth inning.

[Grant77]

That's actually pretty close. Especially if you adjust for run scoring environment and remove League's post prime s***** years. The two have very similar skill sets.

 

Let's just ignore the fact that League gives up twice as much hard contact and cherry pick numbers that look similar! I bow to your brilliance.

[Grant77]

Grant - I wrote fangraphs about this -- here is their reply

 

Dear Olerud363

 

Our projections are done using advanced machine learning techniques. We put a lot of work into it but it isn't really that good. In fact the smartest people just come up with their own projections. So if you are one of those smarter people we recommend coming up with your own projections. If you are not one of the smarter people... well we still don't recommend using our projections... ask one of the smarter people if you can look at theirs.

 

Love fangraphs and other projection people

 

One projection system isn't going to work for every single player. The point is to be aware of the flaws in the system for players with certain skill sets and adjust accordingly. There have been multiple articles on how Marco Estrada and Chris Young break FIP, for example. You don't have to be a genius, it's just a matter of taking the time to look at everything and make logical conclusions.

[Laika]

Trivia - which MLB pitcher leads baseball in hard hit % since 2010, minimum 200 IP? (leads as in has the lowest).

 

Hint - it's a reliever.

[Laika]

Let's just ignore the fact that League gives up twice as much hard contact and cherry pick numbers that look similar! I bow to your brilliance.

 

Quality of contact stats are dubious. There really isn't much (any?) added information in them. The stringers / video "scouts" at BIS are influenced by results... I think for pitchers something like hard hit % probably ends up being just a proxy for other batted ball profile stats, like GB%.

 

If a guy has a low BABIP and a high GB% like Sanchez does, the stringers are going to tick a lot of soft contact boxes. It doesn't mean he has some causal skill in contact manipulation. The sample size issues are intense too. There isn't really any sample size where you can look at a pitcher's hard/soft% and say, a ha! that's why he has a low BABIP!

 

There's a reason that guys with very high hard hit % can be super good (Tanaka and Corbin are among the leaders since 2010) and guys with low hard hit % can be super bad (the creme de la creme include Jamey Wright, Eric O'Flaherty, Javier Lopez, Jim Johnson, Randy Choate).

[BTS]

Let's just ignore the fact that League gives up twice as much hard contact and cherry pick numbers that look similar! I bow to your brilliance.

 

Grant, you're completely insufferable. I actually agree with you that Sanchez is probably a very good reliever over the next few years. The comparison to Brandon League was not a slight. League had a stretch of 5 years from 2008-2012 where he averaged over 60 IP per season with a 7/3 K/BB, a 58% GB rate, an 83 ERA-, and an 84 xFIP- while using primarily a GB inducing 95+ MPH fastball.

 

League was a good reliever. I think Sanchez will be a good reliever. I think Sanchez will do it similarly to the way League did it: ~7/3 K/BB, GB rate around 60%, big velo fastball as his best pitch. I don't believe that you actually don't see the similarities there. They're very similar pitchers. Maybe Sanchez has a better run. Maybe he doesn't.

[saskjayfan]

Nobody "breaks" FIP. FIP is a measure of how a pitcher performs on events that don't involve fielders. It is good at evaluating that in all real-world cases (the linearity makes it break down at extremes).

 

Pitchers can be skilled at extra-FIP things, of course. However, those skills tend to take much longer to be noticeable.

 

all contact is equal....amen brother...hitters with high babip are simply those who sell their soul to the devil...

[BTS]

all contact is equal....amen brother...hitters with high babip are simply those who sell their soul to the devil...

 

Did you respond to his post without reading it? It seems like you did.

[saskjayfan]

Did you respond to his post without reading it? It seems like you did.

 

I stopped reading after nobody breaks fip....so you would be correct. Time for another round.

[BTS]

Gas cans who pipe 90 mph junk break FIP all the time. Just look at the last 5 year leaderboard in ERA-FIP. But most of them are bounced out of the league so you don't get a chance to see just how far their ERAs can deviate from their FIP or how many of them can actually exist, I think.

 

The opposite is probably true more often than not - mediocre arms run into some poor BABIP and sequencing luck early in their careers and get buried before their ERA can regress to their DIPS. Like when Sean Nolin was exiled after one bad inning.

[Grant77]

Trivia - which MLB pitcher leads baseball in hard hit % since 2010, minimum 200 IP? (leads as in has the lowest).

 

Hint - it's a reliever.

 

Most likely a high K guy like Chapman or Robertson if I had to guess.

[Grant77]

Grant, you're completely insufferable. I actually agree with you that Sanchez is probably a very good reliever over the next few years. The comparison to Brandon League was not a slight. League had a stretch of 5 years from 2008-2012 where he averaged over 60 IP per season with a 7/3 K/BB, a 58% GB rate, an 83 ERA-, and an 84 xFIP- while using primarily a GB inducing 95+ MPH fastball.

 

League was a good reliever. I think Sanchez will be a good reliever. I think Sanchez will do it similarly to the way League did it: ~7/3 K/BB, GB rate around 60%, big velo fastball as his best pitch. I don't believe that you actually don't see the similarities there. They're very similar pitchers. Maybe Sanchez has a better run. Maybe he doesn't.

 

I see one pitch that is very similar and some other things, but I don't think it means that Sanchez can't be a good starter. For one thing, he can maintain a ~94 mph fastball as a starter. I can't say for sure, but I presume League couldn't do that or we would have tried him as a starter.

[Frenchsoup]

I might guess Kimbrel

[BTS]

lol I think that is an extreme example.

 

Has anyone written anything on Nolasco's 1500 IP of 4.54 ERA and 3.81 FIP?

 

To me he's one of those guys with no command in the zone but refuses to walk people so he ends up piping a ton of junk.

 

Yeah who knows. It's probably a bunch of stuff. DRS has him at -20 runs over his career, and he's had some big LOB% issues with terrible numbers with runners on base. Maybe pitching from the stretch hurts him more than it hurts an average pitcher.

[Cyborg]

Trivia - which MLB pitcher leads baseball in hard hit % since 2010, minimum 200 IP? (leads as in has the lowest).

 

Hint - it's a reliever.

Long Live the LOOGY.

[Cyborg]

Ricky Romero is 3rd if you set it to 500 IP lol.

[Cyborg]

In fact, with min 500 IP, #1, #3, and #4 were/are Blue Jays. #2 and #5 being Dallas Keuchel and Clayton Kershaw.

[Laika]

Most likely a high K guy like Chapman or Robertson if I had to guess.

 

Randy Choate!!!

[Olerud363]

One projection system isn't going to work for every single player. The point is to be aware of the flaws in the system for players with certain skill sets and adjust accordingly. There have been multiple articles on how Marco Estrada and Chris Young break FIP, for example. You don't have to be a genius, it's just a matter of taking the time to look at everything and make logical conclusions.

 

I acknowledge these systems aren't perfect. I'm not so sure people (or even you) understand why they are not perfect. When something isn't perfect you use Hypothesis testing to test why it is not perfect.

 

1. I am Grant. The machine is broken. Here is my hypothesis: Chris Young and Marco Estrado break the machine

2. Plug new information (perhaps %change ups) about Chris Young and Marco Estrado into the machine

3. Test if the machine is now better

a) Machine better. Hypothesis is right

Machine not better. Hypothesis is wrong.

[Olerud363]

Watching Sanchez reminds me of Chris Carpenter's early years. Carpenter struggled with control then, only found command several years later with the Cardinals, was never a high K rate guy, known for inducing weak contact.

 

Carpenter had a two seam fastball, 12-6 curve, cutter early, added 4 seam and change later for a 5 pitch mix.

 

Sanchez doesn't quite have Carpenter's height (~2" difference) and has a couple MPH more on the fastball.

 

Hi JimCanuck

 

Months ago I was on the other side of this argument. I too was thinking Carpenter and Halladay were good comparables for Sanchez. However I think as Blue Jays fans we are influenced too much by Blue Jays past successes.

 

The argument on the other side is that if you just pick the top comparables for Sanchez through age 23, most have not had great success. Carpenter is kind of similar, but probably not top-10 similar and we just pick him because we know him.