Rick Westhead: Jose Bautista seeks 5 years $150M

[HERPDERP]

"Even prior to getting a reaction from the Jays’ most important player, a club source had quietly suggested that the real number was even higher. But that may, in fact, perhaps be if the extension begins in 2017. Then the total dollar value would be $164 million for the next six seasons."

 

http://www.thestar.com/sports/bluejays/2016/02/23/bautista-blue-jays-battle-for-fans-griffin.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

[z3r0s]

Feels like you've been waiting forever for an excuse to use that descriptor.

 

There's also a store in Kingkat's town by that name

 

For the gamers out there, Geek Chic should only remind you of this going forward.

http://www.geekchichq.com/collections/game-room-tables/products/sultan-deposit

[G-Snarls]

For the gamers out there, Geek Chic should only remind you of this going forward.

http://www.geekchichq.com/collections/game-room-tables/products/sultan-deposit

 

OK, that table is pretty f'n spectatcular

[BigCecil]

From Fangraphs: Sorry Joey Bats you aren't worth 150 million (may have been posted before)

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/sorry-joey-bats-you-arent-worth-150-million/

 

Thought it was decent analysis of aging curve and comparables.

[BTS]

From Fangraphs: Sorry Joey Bats you aren't worth 150 million (may have been posted before)

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/sorry-joey-bats-you-arent-worth-150-million/

 

Thought it was decent analysis of aging curve and comparables.

 

From the comments section in the article:

 

 

For some comps I grabbed all players since 1950 with +/- 10% of JBs PA ages 32-34 AND +/- 1.0 fWAR of his fWAR/600PA rate AND +/- 10 points of wRC+… 15 comps.

 

Just to further identify some similar player types, dumped anyone with a BSR/600PA more than 10 runs from Bautista [getting rid of Henderson, Morgan and Giles].

 

Lets see how these guys did ages 36-40:

 

36: 1.9

37: 0.9

38: 0.8

39: 0.9

40: 0.4

 

Ouch.

 

And that just leaves out players who retired, rather than counting them as a zero or a negative. Would JB retire and forgo the remainder of his contract if he became ineffective, with $30M per year due to him to help out the team… or would he stick it out to the bitter end? I guess the above assumes the former.

 

Figure in 0 fWAR for the missing players [except for A-Rod’s suspension, age 38 and A-Rod’s 2016, age 40]:

 

36: 1.9

37: 0.9

38: 0.5

39: 0.4

40: 0.2

 

Or figure in -1 win?

36: 1.9

37: 0.8

38: 0.1

39: -0.1

40: -0.5

 

—

The comps don’t look so good.

 

Kind of drives home the idea that this is a potential landmine.

[saskjayfan]

these leaks are somewhat disturbing. For all we know Bautista threw out a ridiculous number just to see how long it would hit the media. There seems to be a lot more blue jays information available to the media under the new regime.

[glory]

I don't see any upside at all for paying Bautista $25-30M a year from 36 to 40. You'd be paying for his decline, and any goodwill the org would get for keeping one of their stars and having him retire as a Jay will be long forgotten when he's a 1 WAR DH in the final couple of years.

 

Bautista isn't going to defy age. Maybe he will age better than the norm, but he will age. He will decline. He will get more bumps and bruises. That's just what happens to athletes in their late-30's.

[BigCecil]

From the comments section in the article:

 

 

 

Kind of drives home the idea that this is a potential landmine.

 

Ya, that's the thing. Casuals clamouring to resign Jose will be the first to bail when he sucks from aging and we are lumbered with 25mm AAV ish per. Jose may age well for a player but let's not underestimate the risks.

[G-Snarls]

Jim Bowden tweeted and then removed: Jose Bautista should go public with "the number"

 

Lott responded:

 

[Governator]

I don't see any upside at all for paying Bautista $25-30M a year from 36 to 40. You'd be paying for his decline, and any goodwill the org would get for keeping one of their stars and having him retire as a Jay will be long forgotten when he's a 1 WAR DH in the final couple of years.

 

Bautista isn't going to defy age. Maybe he will age better than the norm, but he will age. He will decline. He will get more bumps and bruises. That's just what happens to athletes in their late-30's.

 

 

Do you really believe 2-3 years from now Bautista is a 1WAR player? I understand the natural decline of a player in his late 30s including the trends of all of the comparisons, it just seems far-reached that he would drop that low that fast. Also don't you think there is some added value to the organization by retaining one of the franchises biggest star's who brings in fans, sells merchandises, draws some TV viewership, etc.? I know we generally draw conclusions of value based on expected ROI, but I would think it's fair to say there is added value of certain players to organizations beyond wins above replacement. Don't get me wrong, he's obviously not worth $30M / yr but just throwing him to the side because of his age is a bit of a cliche reaction that most of us immediately jump to. His performance this year could be very telling really.

[KingKat]

Thought exercise... What kind of numbers would Bautista have to put up to provide 30 million dollars of value? There's no value on defense so we're looking at 30 million in offense alone, even a little more to make up for declining defense.

[G-Snarls]

Do you really believe 2-3 years from now Bautista is a 1WAR player? I understand the natural decline of a player in his late 30s including the trends of all of the comparisons, it just seems far-reached that he would drop that low that fast. Also don't you think there is some added value to the organization by retaining one of the franchises biggest star's who brings in fans, sells merchandises, draws some TV viewership, etc.? I know we generally draw conclusions of value based on expected ROI, but I would think it's fair to say there is added value of certain players to organizations beyond wins above replacement. Don't get me wrong, he's obviously not worth $30M / yr but just throwing him to the side because of his age is a bit of a cliche reaction that most of us immediately jump to. His performance this year could be very telling really.

 

Good post

 

His OBP skills should remain even if his power wanes I would think. He has an *incredible* eye for the strike zone and excellent plate discipline.

[KingKat]

Thought exercise... What kind of numbers would Bautista have to put up to provide 30 million dollars of value? There's no value on defense so we're looking at 30 million in offense alone, even a little more to make up for declining defense.

 

Or looking at it differently... Fangraphs has Bautista's 2015 as worth 35.6 millions. Steamer projects him to slightly decline in 2016 from 4.5 WAR to 3.7 War. My back of the napkin math has that at about 29 millions. The idea that we should be paying Jose about what he's worth now for 5 more seasons after next is ludicrous. It would really have to be closer to 20 million or at least 25. That way there's at least a fighting chance of getting SOME additional value at the front of the contract to make up for the bath you're likely to take at the end.

[HERPDERP]

So it actually wasn't an absurd idea that it actually was more..

 

Jon Heyman ✔ ‎@JonHeyman

Bautista reported ask of $150M, 5 yrs is indeed not exactly accurate, as Joey Bats said. At least years and total $ r MORE.

[HERPDERP]

[saskjayfan]

where did the numbers come from? Was it complete fabrication or did it come from the Blue Jays or the agent. The most likely source is the blue jays. They are already dealing with a PR nightmare with the Saunders deal, but at least in that situation it is plausible leaks were outside the organization. The people working for the Jays need shut their traps.

[Laika]

this is pretty funny at this point

[Sammy225]

If it is indeed more i think this is going to backfire on Bautista. Don't know why i just got a feeling

[Laika]

He's just trying to get Toronto to negotiate like a big boy team. The first number in a negotiation often anchors where things will go moving forward. Truthfully he might be willing to accept 4/100 right now if it was offered. We have no idea.

 

Hilarious how it is playing out though.

[Slade]

where did the numbers come from? Was it complete fabrication or did it come from the Blue Jays or the agent. The most likely source is the blue jays. They are already dealing with a PR nightmare with the Saunders deal, but at least in that situation it is plausible leaks were outside the organization. The people working for the Jays need shut their traps.

 

How was the Saunders deal a PR nightmare?

[metafour]

How was the Saunders deal a PR nightmare?

 

This LOL. 90% of the fanbase doesn't even know who Saunders is. or Bruce for that matter.

[Stangstag]

I really hope we don't re-sign Bautista

[Terminator]

Now Rosenthal is seconding it.

 

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 9m9 minutes ago

Hearing same as @jonheyman: Bautista asked #BlueJays for more than 5 yrs and more than $150M. But average annual value was below $30M per.

[BTS]

Now Rosenthal is seconding it.

 

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 9m9 minutes ago

Hearing same as @jonheyman: Bautista asked #BlueJays for more than 5 yrs and more than $150M. But average annual value was below $30M per.

 

That just seems silly, even for an initial proposal.

[Governator]

Now Rosenthal is seconding it.

 

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 9m9 minutes ago

Hearing same as @jonheyman: Bautista asked #BlueJays for more than 5 yrs and more than $150M. But average annual value was below $30M per.

 

 

Probably thinking, meh AA is gone might as well try for more than 5 years now.

[Terminator]

That just seems silly, even for an initial proposal.

 

Well it's even worse, Bautista said he wouldn't even allow them to counter or negotiate. Although that might have been posturing as I'm sure he would have allowed some wiggle room if they Jays got close to matching, right?

[Stangstag]

Signing Bautista to anything longer than 4 years would be a hug mistake.

[intrigid]

I don't see how a player can "not allow" a counter offer. What's stopping FO from saying "how about 5/110"? Does he just cover his ears and go lalalalala?

[Terminator]

I don't see how a player can "not allow" a counter offer. What's stopping FO from saying "how about 5/110"? Does he just cover his ears and go lalalalala?

 

It's called a take it or leave it offer.

[glory]

So on top of making this a story/distraction in February when all he had to do was keep quiet, he also is apparently asking for one of the biggest contracts in history from an AAV standpoint. He was also so vague about the details of the 'take it or leave it' contract, that he tried to make his employer look bad/cheap in the process to a fan base that is already largely against the ownership group. Now this s*** comes out, which might just be Rogers retaliating by making Bautista look like a delusional star valuing money over team/loyalty/whatever, but now Rosenthal is confirming it (I trust him more than any other reporter).

 

You know how this could have been avoided? Do what Ross Atkins did when he took to the media yesterday. Say nothing. Keep it in house. That would have upset one of the posters here (forgot his username) who wants all private matters to be discussed freely in public, but in reality, no one would have been talking about this if Bautista just said "I'm not going to talk about this so stop asking", or something along those lines.

 

On top of that, with his 10/5 rights, he can't be traded unless he approves, and the Jays don't benefit by trading him unless they get someone who can help their 2016 window, plus provide value beyond 2016. The only guy like that I can think of is Puig if the Dodgers were willing to sell low on account of his high douche bag credentials, but trading Bats for prospects would kill off a season that is there for the taking while not guaranteeing anything beyond 2016 either.

 

Oh well. Hope for the best in 2016, wish Bautista well on his future club in 2017, and move on.