Official MiLB/Prospects Thread

[Captain_Obvious]

Let's flip the search around. AA and 20 years or younger, but sort by wRC+ ascending. Again, since 2010.

 

First thing I notice - none of the players who were below average by wRC+ had an ISO anywhere close to Orelvis'.

 

Anthony Rizzo had a .217 ISO and a 118 wRC+ in 2010 but nobody else below Rizzo even had a .180 wRC+. So Orelvis' power is incomparable to this pool of young prospects who struggled in AA.

 

Most of the names who had below average wRC+ on this list ended up as solid MLB players or are still too young to write off. But most of them are very differently kinds of players... slappy infielders. Guys like Nick Castellanos, Jonathan Schoop, and Jose Ramirez! are there.

 

Since 2010 there have been 71 players aged 20 or under get 250+ PA in AA in a single season. Orelvis' ranks:

 

BB% 34th

K% 67th

AVG 71st

BABIP 71st

wRC+ 55th

ISO 10th

FB% 3rd

LD% 58th

 

It's just so bizarre to see a BABIP that low from a player who can hit the ball so hard. The flyballs are to blame for some of it but I just think a good chunk was bad luck and he could've hit .230 or .240 with no change in skill and just some better ball luck.

 

The one strictly negative example I see is Hudson Potts, who at 24 is probably not going to figure it out. He was similar to Orelvis in a lot of ways, back in 2019. Again, the game power is not really comparable though (Orelvis was near .300 ISOs in prior seasons, Potts was just over .200 in his best MiLB years).

 

He led the league, or was one of the leaders in popping up. This is why his BABIP was terrible.

[Laika]

He led the league, or was one of the leaders in popping up. This is why his BABIP was terrible.

 

Yeah. That can be wonky data though on the MiLB side, I think.

 

Also, not sure how quickly IFFB stabilizes. FB and GB rates are mostly stable within a couple of months but LD% can take over a year (600+ MLB PA).

 

To get a sense of scale:

 

If you look at every AA hitter with 250+ PA since 2010, there are 3279 qualified seasons.

 

Orelvis is 3265th in BABIP among them.

He is 2405th in IFFB%

 

So... hard to blame the 99.6th percentile BABIP season on the 73.3rd percentile IFFB rate. I think.

 

His flyball rate of 51% is 3194th or 97.4th percentile

[John_Havok]

Yeah. That can be wonky data though on the MiLB side, I think.

 

Also, not sure how quickly IFFB stabilizes. FB and GB rates are mostly stable within a couple of months but LD% can take over a year (600+ MLB PA).

 

To get a sense of scale:

 

If you look at every AA hitter with 250+ PA since 2010, there are 3279 qualified seasons.

 

Orelvis is 3265th in BABIP among them.

He is 2405th in IFFB%

 

So... hard to blame the 99.6th percentile BABIP season on the 73.3rd percentile IFFB rate. I think.

 

His flyball rate of 51% is 3194th or 97.4th percentile

 

Honestly at this point Im just hoping that Barger, Orelvis and Tiedemann can be the next set of guys that can make an impact (not like Vlad/Bo impact, but at least solid to plus regulars) at the major league level. Having them come along just as Vlad and Bo are nearing the end of their team control would be massive.

[Terminator]

His power is insane. Watch the HR at the start of this video. It's like a Vlad laser.

 

 

Wow both of his homers in that clip are insane for a 20 year old. The first one was a laser to dead center that EASILY cleared the fence. The second one was a bomb that the camera couldn't even track.

[Jimcanuck]

Best comp for Orelvis I have seen is Maikel Franco. Gonna stick with that until I see some better results.

[John_Havok]

Best comp for Orelvis I have seen is Maikel Franco. Gonna stick with that until I see some better results.

 

Franco and Orelvis are two completely different hitters though. Franco was a supreme contact guy with above average power.

 

Orelvis has monster power and a lousy hit tool.

 

I guess the similarity is that both feel like they can hit anything that comes their way

[Terminator]

The thing is if he was in high A he would have dominated and everyone would have been on his nuts and kept him in their Top 100. Well the Jays pushed him and he understandably had some mixed results that came with being the youngest player in AA. He's getting dinged too much for playing in an advanced league.

[Jimcanuck]

The thing is if he was in high A he would have dominated and everyone would have been on his nuts and kept him in their Top 100. Well the Jays pushed him and he understandably had some mixed results that came with being the youngest player in AA. He's getting dinged too much for playing in an advanced league.

 

The jump to AA is the 2nd hardest, after the jump to MLB. Orelvis had nothing left to prove in A ball.

 

Guys that make the jump from A ball to AA and maintain or improve their outcome move up the list, guys that don't move down. Orelvis is still at the bottom of top 100 or just outside it, with big red flags attached.

[John_Havok]

The thing is if he was in high A he would have dominated and everyone would have been on his nuts and kept him in their Top 100. Well the Jays pushed him and he understandably had some mixed results that came with being the youngest player in AA. He's getting dinged too much for playing in an advanced league.

 

For sure.

 

Contrast Orelvis with Barger's numbers last year in AA...

 

20 year old Orelvis: BB% 8.1, K% 28.5, ISO .242, BABIP .217, .203/.286/.446 triple slash with a 96 wRC+ (492 PAs) LD rate 16%, FB rate 51%, IFFB rate 24%

22 year old Barger: BB% 9.1, K% 25.3, ISO .216, BABIP .390, .313/.384/.528 triple slash with a 147 wRC+ (198 PAs) LD rate 20%, FB rate 43.3%, IFFB rate 25.5%

 

As Laika pointed out earlier, IFFB rate doesnt stabilize very quickly and there's probably a grain of salt to be taken along with the numbers.

 

Barger is in the top 60, Orelvis outside the top 100. Overreaction on both in opposite ways perhaps?

[Terminator]

I'm going with Zips. Orelvis is the #5 prospect in baseball. Extend him.

[King]

The jump to AA is the 2nd hardest, after the jump to MLB. Orelvis had nothing left to prove in A ball.

 

Guys that make the jump from A ball to AA and maintain or improve their outcome move up the list, guys that don't move down. Orelvis is still at the bottom of top 100 or just outside it, with big red flags attached.

 

He had a 99 wRC+ in High A in the last half of 2021. Let's not pretend he had nothing left to prove at that level.

[Spanky__99]

He has to be one of the higher variance prospects in the minors right now. Outcomes could range from AAAA hitter to MLB's home run leader. As you said, there was no one his age struggling in AA who came close to having his ISO in recent years. A unicorn.

 

Will be interesting to see what happens!

 

Bang on by King, this year is huge for OM repeating AA, kid's a specimen.

[43211234]

Speaking of Orelvis I haven't heard a thing about him in Spring.

 

He's on the 40-man so I assume he's there...

[Spanky__99]

All that was lame... true *f***in* story, lol

[Dagagad]

Anyone work out who the 3 other top 200 guys are? There are 3 we know but i couldn’t find the others on any list.

[Spanky__99]

Anyone work out who the 3 other top 200 guys are? There are 3 we know but i couldn’t find the others on any list.

 

Zulu, Martinez and sorry got scared.

[Captain_Obvious]

Gabriel Martinez is one of Fangraph's six sleeper hitters in 2023.

 

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-identify-some-hitter-sleeper-candidates/

 

Gabriel Martinez, LF, Toronto Blue Jays

 

Relevant Stats: Martinez isn’t old enough to purchase alcohol in the United States yet (he’ll turn 21 this July). Despite his young age, he shredded A-ball and High-A last year, to the tune of an aggregate .299/.358/.485 line. He did so despite missing a month with injury, and in his first extended playing time as a professional to boot. Defensively, he’s corners-only in the outfield.

 

What I Like: Hitting. I like hitting, and Martinez does too. Working through two minor league levels at age 19 is impressive, and he did it not with some ludicrous BABIP but by controlling strikeouts and hitting for extra bases. Unlike many of the players on this list, he even hit some homers in a major league park (ish), since he played the majority of the season in Dunedin, the sometimes home of the 2021 Jays. Most players his age playing against advanced competition would be overmatched, which is easiest to see in their strikeout rate, but Martinez only struck out 16.4% of the time. Sure, the offensive bar to clear is higher as a corner outfielder, but he looked phenomenally good for his age and environment, which gives me hope that he can reach that bar.

 

Warning Signs: He’s another guy whose raw power numbers fall short of what you’d expect based on his production, and he’s on the clock to boot. He was Rule 5 eligible this past offseason, but I think it’s reasonable that no one took a chance on him; he’s just too raw to put on your major league roster without worrying about his long-term development. That does make 2023 a key season, though; he’ll be trying Double-A for the first time while also auditioning for a 40-man spot. That’s a lot of pressure, and might lead the Jays to push him too aggressively, though I think his skills are up to the challenge.

[L54]

Right handed Michael Brantley

[Terminator]

[Daniel Labude]

[Krylian]

 

Love it. I'm surprised he didn't pull out his cock and use it as a bat.

[Krylian]

 

.... And the names are?????

[Daniel Labude]

.... And the names are?????

 

No idea, I don't have baseball America

[Terminator]

Tiedeman just mowed them down. He's ready.

[Krylian]

Tiedeman just mowed them down. He's ready.

 

Sign him to a 15 year deal?

[Laika]

honestly why even have Tiedemann pitch in the minors

 

he can probably throw like 130 innings this year

 

just put him on a plan to throw 100 as a SP then finish out the year in the pen

[Spanky__99]

.... And the names are?????

 

Meh...

 

Beyond the Top 30, these are 10 prospects to watch in Toronto's farm system.

 

Troy Watson, RHP. Watson missed most of the last two seasons following Tommy John surgery in 2021. He returned late in 2022 and flashed impressive stuff out of the bullpen, where he sat 95-97 mph and mixed in a pair of breaking balls with spin rates in the 2,600-2,800 rpm range.

 

Johan Simon, LHP. Simon has been up to 96 mph with ride and cut and he pairs his fastball with a tight, mid-80s slider and a rarely used changeup.

 

Vinny Capra, 3B. Capra was outrighted off the 40-man roster, but re-signed with the Blue Jays on a minor league deal. Over the last two seasons he has hit .310/.392/.497, primarily in Double-A and Triple-A.

 

Lazaro Estrada, RHP. The owner of the best curveball in the Blue Jays system, Estrada gets his curveball up to 3,400 rpm with heavy, two-plane break.

 

Jackson Rees, RHP. Armed with a tight mid-80s gyro slider and a sinker in the mid 90s, Rees went undrafted out of Hawaii-Manoa and signed with the Blue Jays following the 2018 draft. He missed most of 2021 and 2022 after having Tommy John surgery.

 

Adrian Hernandez, RHP. A changeup-first righthander with a true plus pitch in his cambio, Hernandez lacks an average second pitch but has had some success in the high minors at a young age.

 

Davis Schneider, 2B/3B. Projection models love Schneider due to his combination of average or better contact, approach and power. Schneider hit .253/.366/.457 with 22 doubles and 16 home runs across three levels in 2022.

 

Irv Carter, RHP. A 2021 fifth-round pick, Carter possesses rotation upside but struggled to miss bats in 2022 and allowed 29 earned runs over 47.2 innings.

 

Luis Meza, C. Meza signed for $2.25 million at the beginning of the 2022 signing period and drew high praise for his hitting ability. He underperformed in his debut and hit .229/.267/.292 over 101 plate appearances.

 

Ryan Jennings, RHP. Drafted in the fourth round out of Louisiana-Lafayette, Jennings throws a two-seam fastball up to 97 mph and mixes in a high-spin, power slider in the mid-to-upper 80s.

[John_Havok]

honestly why even have Tiedemann pitch in the minors

 

he can probably throw like 130 innings this year

 

just put him on a plan to throw 100 as a SP then finish out the year in the pen

 

I was thinking about this the other day, I think the Jays will likely start him in the minors and bring him up at some point where he could get 10+ starts down the stretch. He could be the next Jose Fernandez - hopefully without the poor judgement on drinking and boating

[Brownie19]

Lazaro Estrada, RHP. The owner of the best curveball in the Blue Jays system, Estrada gets his curveball up to 3,400 rpm with heavy, two-plane break.

 

[Orgfiller]

Troy Watson, RHP. Watson missed most of the last two seasons following Tommy John surgery in 2021. He returned late in 2022 and flashed impressive stuff out of the bullpen, where he sat 95-97 mph and mixed in a pair of breaking balls with spin rates in the 2,600-2,800 rpm range.

 

We just saw him pitch in the game against Detroit. 96 with a good breaking ball for the strike out. Granted, Detroit isn't exactly throwing their best out there either.