Official MiLB/Prospects Thread

[Jimcanuck]

Yah Viktor Robles defense was supposed to be otherworldly. He sucks.

[John_Havok]

It's nice to hear good things about Dasan Brown.

 

At a minimum, you are probably looking at a Jonathan Davis clone who makes the major leagues at 22 or 23 instead of 26 and stays with the org through his three option years, as the 5th or 6th OF on the depth chart.

 

The K rate is concerning and likely a kiss of death.

 

Defense is funny. Lots of players get scouted as exceptional defenders and then come up as average ones, and vice versa.

 

Im cheering for the kid based on this picture alone. If his agent can't get him a Crest or Colgate endorsement, he should be fired.

 

[Brownie19]

It's nice to hear good things about Dasan Brown.

 

At a minimum, you are probably looking at a Jonathan Davis clone who makes the major leagues at 22 or 23 instead of 26 and stays with the org through his three option years, as the 5th or 6th OF on the depth chart.

 

The K rate is concerning and likely a kiss of death.

 

Defense is funny. Lots of players get scouted as exceptional defenders and then come up as average ones, and vice versa.

 

He also has some Anthony Alford vibes - particularly when you start reading how he's going to need more time to develop.

[John_Havok]

He also has some Anthony Alford vibes - particularly when you start reading how he's going to need more time to develop.

 

I think Alford would have been fine if he gave up on football earlier. Guy only had like 100 PAs over his first 3 minor league seasons total.

 

He still hit half decent in the KBO last year.

[John_Havok]

Yah Viktor Robles defense was supposed to be otherworldly. He sucks.

 

What? His defense in OAA has been 100th percentile, 76th, 80th and 90th from 2019-2022.

 

Cumulatively over that time, he's 4th in runs prevented for all outfielders behind Bader, KK and Grisham.

 

That's not what I'd call "sucks"

Edited January 27, 2023 by John_Havok

[Jimcanuck]

What? His defense in OAA has been 100th percentile, 76th, 80th and 90th from 2019-2022.

 

Cumulatively over that time, he's 4th in runs prevented for all outfielders behind Bader, KK and Grisham.

 

That's not what I'd call "sucks"

 

Fine. I paid big time for that guy, he'll always suck IMO

[The Cats Ass]

Yah Viktor Robles defense was supposed to be otherworldly. He sucks.

 

He bulked up too much to try and become a power hitter. He used to be top tier.

[spats]

Where will Barriera be placed, Dunedin?

 

I hope so. I'll be able to watch him in April.

[John_Havok]

I hope so. I'll be able to watch him in April.

 

I hope you get to see him too, will need some reports from our scout on the ground

[Spanky__99]

I hope so. I'll be able to watch him in April.

 

You'll see him gearing up in Dunedin for April I'm sure, once it gets a bit warmer in Vancouver in May/June he'll likely head there.

[spats]

I hope you get to see him too, will need some reports from our scout on the ground

 

Lol. Will be my pleasure.

[jaysguy44]

 

Edited January 28, 2023 by Deadpool
Added embed.

[Stangstag]

 

 

God damn.

[Spanky__99]

Article on Toman, and the new complex that drew him to sign with the Jays...

 

https://www.si.com/mlb/bluejays/analysis/blue-jays-what-drew-prospect-tucker-toman-to-toronto

[Olerud363]

They are both very young and are unlikely to contribute in 2024 (Brown will be 22, Martinez will be 21 at the start of 2024). Very few players make it to the bigs this young. Many are still in college at this age.

 

Not sure that logic makes sense, because they already made it to high A at 19/20, no reason they won't be here in 2024. Trip from a-ball to the majors is often done in 2 years no matter what the players age. Biggio, Vlad, Bo, Kirk, Moreno, Travis Snider, Anthony Gose, Dalton Pompey, Devon Travis. All different ages (and caliber of prospects) but took about the same time from A ball to first at-bats in the majors.

 

Even Anthony Alford who came up in another thread was 2 years from A to majors (once he quit football) (then after arriving in 2017 got a hamate injury after his first hit).

 

I agree any number of road blocks can stop these players, and even if they make the majors they may (or probably will) not stick. However it would be pretty normal to see both these guys get some at bats in 2024.

[John_Havok]

Not sure that logic makes sense, because they already made it to high A at 19/20, no reason they won't be here in 2024. Trip from a-ball to the majors is often done in 2 years no matter what the players age. Biggio, Vlad, Bo, Kirk, Moreno, Travis Snider, Anthony Gose, Dalton Pompey, Devon Travis. All different ages (and caliber of prospects) but took about the same time from A ball to first at-bats in the majors.

 

Even Anthony Alford who came up in another thread was 2 years from A to majors (once he quit football) (then after arriving in 2017 got a hamate injury after his first hit).

 

I agree any number of road blocks can stop these players, and even if they make the majors they may (or probably will) not stick. However it would be pretty normal to see both these guys get some at bats in 2024.

 

"Trip from a-ball to the majors is often done in 2 years no matter what the players age" - this really doesn't happen all that often overall for MILB players. There's hundreds and thousands that never even sniff the majors.

 

Though I think maybe youre meaning, of the players who eventually make the majors, they often make the jump from Aball to the majors in 2 years. That would be more accurate.

[The Iceman]

Keith Law's latest rankings

 

47. Ricky Tiedemann, LHP, Toronto Blue Jays

Age: 20 | 6-4 | 220 pounds

Bats: Left | Throws: Left

Drafted: No. 91 in 2021

 

Last year’s ranking: Unranked

 

Tiedemann went undrafted out of high school in 2020, then went to junior college and ended up a third-round pick of the Jays in 2021. His velocity started to creep up as soon as instructional league. He topped out at 97-98 mph in 2022, although he tapered off over the course of the season and was sitting 93-94 when I saw him in September at Double-A Somerset, when the Jays had him on a strict three-inning limit to manage his workload. When fully healthy, he’s got power stuff, with big horizontal break to the slider that makes it a weapon against left- and right-handed batters, and an above-average changeup that he will need more as he gets to Triple A and the majors. He has a tough delivery to repeat, starting on the extreme first-base end of the rubber and never quite getting online, so locating to his glove side is a challenge. If he can develop his command and control — which might mean getting him more online to the plate — he has front-line starter potential. There’s also reliever risk here, although in that role he’d probably be an elite, 35-40 percent strikeout rate pitcher.

[The Iceman]

Ex-Jays Austin martin and SWR did not make the Law top 100.

I looked up Martin's draft year because I remember being surprised he was there for us.

 

Asa Lacy was a big LHP that was expected to go a little later and the Jays had some reported interest in. He was picked one pick before us.

He had 42 BB in 28 IP last season. OUCH.

 

Seems like bad teams stay bad with poor drafting like KC and Detroit.

[Laika]

Ex-Jays Austin martin and SWR did not make the Law top 100.

I looked up Martin's draft year because I remember being surprised he was there for us.

 

Asa Lacy was a big LHP that was expected to go a little later and the Jays had some reported interest in. He was picked one pick before us.

He had 42 BB in 28 IP last season. OUCH.

 

Seems like bad teams stay bad with poor drafting like KC and Detroit.

 

that draft is looking pretty bad at the top

 

the best player in the first round might end up being Jordan Walker (21st). Most of the top 7 picks have trended down. Mostly for performance, Meyer due to injury.

[Brownie19]

that draft is looking pretty bad at the top

 

the best player in the first round might end up being Jordan Walker (21st). Most of the top 7 picks have trended down. Mostly for performance, Meyer due to injury.

 

Yeah it hasn't been a good one at all. If memory serves correct, Lacy was always expected to go Top 4. It was Heston Kjerstad and Max Meyer who leep frogged over the consensus top 4 (Tork, Martin, Lacy and Hancock) to allow Martin to 'fall' to the Jays.

 

I was going to suggest that Robert Hassell looks legit, but after I see that upon arriving in Washington, he was told by their analytic department to start hitting right handed and that doesn't seem to be working out so well yet. I also remember using a bottle of Jergens to vigorously moisten some skin while watching Zac Veen videos. He still has a chance to be an impact player.

[Laika]

Yeah it hasn't been a good one at all. If memory serves correct, Lacy was always expected to go Top 4. It was Heston Kjerstad and Max Meyer who leep frogged over the consensus top 4 (Tork, Martin, Lacy and Hancock) to allow Martin to 'fall' to the Jays.

 

I was going to suggest that Robert Hassell looks legit, but after I see that upon arriving in Washington, he was told by their analytic department to start hitting right handed and that doesn't seem to be working out so well yet. I also remember using a bottle of Jergens to vigorously moisten some skin while watching Zac Veen videos. He still has a chance to be an impact player.

 

Baltimore reached big for Kjerstad (he was more middle 1st in talent) and IIRC used the money for Coby Mayo. In hindsight that was smart because the top of the draft was evidently soft and Mayo is a top 100 or fringe top 100 prospect right now.

 

It basically ended up being a top 7 that draft. Meyer moved up because of talent/stuff popping, Nick Gonzales trended up because of production, and Veen was kind of always in the mix near the top.

 

2020 draft is the best illustration you can find of why the Cardinals are good. Teams were f***ing up on top picks while they picked Jordan Walker 21st and Tink Hence 63rd. Good f***ing lord. And Alec Burleson 70th. And Masyn Winn 54th. OMFG legendary draft for STL.

[Brownie19]

Yeah I know a lot of people seem to hate St. Louis (I think because their fans are obnoxious?) - but man, are they a well run team. A team that a fan could really support and enjoy. Like I wish the Jays could develop into the org that the Cards are.

[John_Havok]

Yeah I know a lot of people seem to hate St. Louis (I think because their fans are obnoxious?) - but man, are they a well run team. A team that a fan could really support and enjoy. Like I wish the Jays could develop into the org that the Cards are.

 

I think the thing I dislike about St Louis the most, is how they always seem to end up getting competitive balance picks, when they're clearly not a team hurting for money. It's like they have all the benefits of a large payroll team in that they can retain or sign any free agent they want (within limits) and then get handed a few extra picks even though they continue to do well in the standings.

 

Not hard to succeed when they have the best of both worlds.

[Olerud363]

"Trip from a-ball to the majors is often done in 2 years no matter what the players age" - this really doesn't happen all that often overall for MILB players. There's hundreds and thousands that never even sniff the majors.

 

Though I think maybe youre meaning, of the players who eventually make the majors, they often make the jump from Aball to the majors in 2 years. That would be more accurate.

 

Also players that reach the stage of G. Martinez and Brown (hitting decent in high A) have a really high chance of getting a cup of coffee within 2 years, even if they aren't destined to be regulars.

 

Lot's of the failures will never even make it to the hitting well in A+ stage, but if you make it to that stage you probably have like 95% chance of making AA in a 2 years, 70% chance of making AAA in 2 years and maybe around 50% of making the majors in 2 years. The chances of ever being a regular are probably way, way lower though.

 

Someone has probably done the research I'm just guessing at those numbers based on watching games on TV and looking at baseball reference 4 times a week.

[Brownie19]

I think the thing I dislike about St Louis the most, is how they always seem to end up getting competitive balance picks, when they're clearly not a team hurting for money. It's like they have all the benefits of a large payroll team in that they can retain or sign any free agent they want (within limits) and then get handed a few extra picks even though they continue to do well in the standings.

 

Not hard to succeed when they have the best of both worlds.

 

That is quite the unique technically that's created your hatred. If I interviewed 100 fans who hate the Cards - I doubt anyone else would state that reason! I love it John.

[Brownie19]

I did not create this gif, nor do I even fully understand what the person who did create the gif was getting it, but it seems both funny out of context and appropriate to post at this point

 

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2443[/ATTACH]

 

f*** where is Senior Chang when you need him?

[Laika]

That is quite the unique technically that's created your hatred. If I interviewed 100 fans who hate the Cards - I doubt anyone else would state that reason! I love it John.

 

I think this all the time. Competitive balance picks are BS.

[Deadpool]

f*** where is Senior Chang when you need him?

 

Couldn't get a decent enough version and apparently you can't just link a gif directly from Twitter so I deleted the whole thing

 

The tweet in question probably would have set of a political firestorm in here, and all I wanted was the gif which was from the Jan 6th riot with the words "St. Louis Cardinals 40 Man Roster" as an overlay for some reason...

[Ehjays]

https://www.thestar.com/sports/bluejays/opinion/2023/01/28/blue-jays-teenager-enmanuel-bonilla-is-a-cant-miss-prospect-now-that-he-has-a-cant-miss-bonus.html

 

Blue Jays teenager Enmanuel Bonilla is a can’t-miss prospect now that he has a can’t-miss bonus

 

There aren’t too many teenage ballplayers who have the “it” factor — the type of unmistakable talent that, even at a young age, seems destined for success in a sport that is notoriously difficult to predict.

 

The Blue Jays were certain Vladimir Guerrero Jr. had it when they signed him in 2015; they believed top prospect Orelvis Martinez did, too, in 2018. Seattle’s Julio Rodriguez and Tampa Bay’s Wander Franco were can’t-miss guys, hyped for years before breaking into the major leagues as stars.

 

The Jays feel they unearthed another potential gem with the signing of Enmanuel Bonilla, a 16-year-old power-hitting outfielder from the Dominican Republic who recently agreed to a $4.1-million (U.S.) contract.

 

“The one thing I feel pretty confident in is that Bonilla is a top-tier talent in this class,” says Andrew Tinnish, the Jays vice president of international scouting and baseball operations. “Obviously, time will tell. There are first overall picks in the draft that never made it to the big leagues. But I feel like we’ve got one of the better players.”

 

The critics seem to agree. Bonilla was ranked the No. 4 prospect in this year’s class of international free agents by Baseball America, while MLB Pipeline had him seventh. The scouting reports suggest he possesses elite bat speed with an ability to adjust on off-speed offerings. The Dominican was generally considered the top slugger available.

 

The upside was enough to convince the Jays to hand out a record-breaking deal. The $4.1-million signing, representing nearly 78 per cent of the bonus pool, was the highest the organization has paid under the current system, surpassing $3.9 million for Guerrero and $3.5 million for Martinez.

 

Tinnish knows a thing or two about identifying talent. He drafted Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez and Noah Syndergaard when he was the director of amateur scouting and his international success stories include Alejandro Kirk, Gabriel Moreno and up-and-comers Yosver Zulueta and Sem Robberse. He first saw Bonilla play in January 2020, just a few months before the pandemic delayed the upcoming season and hampered in-person scouting. A few agencies and international academies organized a tournament at the Texas Rangers’ old spring training complex in Arizona.

 

Bonilla was only 14 at the time, but word was already out in the scouting community. Tinnish had received positive reports from others in the organization and what he saw over the next 48 hours stuck with him for more than two years.

 

“At the end of the day, it was the really explosive bat speed,” Tinnish says. “He made hard, consistent contact, which sounds simple, but the ingredients for being a good hitter is making a good decision on whether or not you’re going to swing at a pitch. And if you do swing a pitch, do as much damage as you can. At this stage of evaluating, he checked those boxes more comfortably than any other guy we were scouting.”

 

Bonilla reportedly handles velocity well and can drive the ball to all fields, but the Jays believe he is more than just a hitter. Tinnish raved about Bonilla’s explosive first step and his ability to run a 60-yard dash in 6.65 seconds, faster than the 6.7-6.9 it generally takes to be an average big-league runner.

 

Because of his muscular body type, reports around the time of his signing suggested Bonilla was destined to become a corner outfielder. While that might eventually happen, the Jays intend to give him a chance to develop in centre field. After all, a lot of scouts figured Rodriguez would outgrow centre and now he is the Mariners’ franchise player at that very spot.

 

“I think what will dictate whether or not he plays centre will be two things,” Tinnish says. “It’ll be how he develops physically, and it will come down to the work that he puts in to stay there. But when you put a package together of who’s got a shot to play centre, he’s got that. He’s not as lean and wiry as some other guys maybe at that age that you think, ‘Oh, this guy is going to be a centre-fielder’ but I think sometimes that gets held against guys.”

 

Bonilla received the bulk of the Jays $5,284,000 bonus pool for international free agents, but he wasn’t the only player the organization signed. The Jays also finalized agreements with at least 14 others and while Tinnish likes them all, he singled out David Guzman, a five-foot-seven Venezuelan outfielder who “absolutely rakes, just flat-out hits.”

 

Guzman is more of a long shot for a starlike trajectory but Bonilla isn’t a sure thing, either. When scouting high-school-aged players who still have a lot of maturing left to do, anything can happen.

 

This is about taking a calculated risk. The stakes for Bonilla just happen to be higher than normal.

 

“There are no guarantees, right?” Tinnish says. “When we signed Vlad, there was no guarantee he was going to play in the big leagues, just like there’s no guarantee with Orelvis. But based on history, based on your evaluation process, weighing the opinions of the people who have seen Bonilla and seen other players historically and the class, you come to a point where you’re like, ‘OK, this player — this skill set, these evaluations that we’re reading — fits that demographic.”

 

The Jays won’t know for sure what type of player Bonilla is destined to become for at least a few years. But you can’t hit a home run without being aggressive and this is one signing where Tinnish and the Jays decided to swing for the fences. Based on some of their previous success stories, that seems like a pretty wise move.

[Jimcanuck]

Will be interesting where Bonilla starts out at after extended ST. DSL probably, stateside would be something.