Official MiLB/Prospects Thread

[Jonn]

Hyping up a 16 year old is always a dangerous game. But when you paid 4.1m for a kid out of the Dominican you better feel strong about his future.

[Terminator]

I think the thing I dislike about St Louis the most, is how they always seem to end up getting competitive balance picks, when they're clearly not a team hurting for money. It's like they have all the benefits of a large payroll team in that they can retain or sign any free agent they want (within limits) and then get handed a few extra picks even though they continue to do well in the standings.

 

Not hard to succeed when they have the best of both worlds.

 

They are one of my favorite franchises other than the Jays. Probably the 2nd best franchise of all time after the Yankees despite having a market similar in size to Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Tampa, etc. I don't know how much the competitive picks have helped, it sure hasn't helped those other franchises to this level.

 

They are a great example of "winning breeds winning." They have finished below .500 only once since the year 2000 (they won 79 games in 2007) and only 32 times since 1882.

 

They used to be the southern and western most franchise so they had a large original fanbase that they've been able to maintain with all the winning. Also, their affiliates are strategically placed (i.e. AAA is in Memphis and they've got a big following there) which gives them more population to draw fans from.

 

Add it all up and over time they've curated a large, hardcore fanbase that punches well above its market weight and allows them to continuously field competitive payrolls.

 

They've shown that constantly trying to field competitive teams can be an effective long term strategy and one that the Jays should also try to do as well IMO. It just cultivates a better longterm fanbase than the compete-rebuild-compete strategy does.

[InsideThePark]

Keith Law's latest rankings

 

47. Ricky Tiedemann, LHP, Toronto Blue Jays

Age: 20 | 6-4 | 220 pounds

Bats: Left | Throws: Left

Drafted: No. 91 in 2021

 

Last year’s ranking: Unranked

 

Tiedemann went undrafted out of high school in 2020, then went to junior college and ended up a third-round pick of the Jays in 2021. His velocity started to creep up as soon as instructional league. He topped out at 97-98 mph in 2022, although he tapered off over the course of the season and was sitting 93-94 when I saw him in September at Double-A Somerset, when the Jays had him on a strict three-inning limit to manage his workload. When fully healthy, he’s got power stuff, with big horizontal break to the slider that makes it a weapon against left- and right-handed batters, and an above-average changeup that he will need more as he gets to Triple A and the majors. He has a tough delivery to repeat, starting on the extreme first-base end of the rubber and never quite getting online, so locating to his glove side is a challenge. If he can develop his command and control — which might mean getting him more online to the plate — he has front-line starter potential. There’s also reliever risk here, although in that role he’d probably be an elite, 35-40 percent strikeout rate pitcher.

 

Law in peak mid-season form already. Tiedemann didn't pitch in September. You'd think a decent scout would be capable of looking at the date of his player notes.

[spats]

Will be interesting where Bonilla starts out at after extended ST. DSL probably, stateside would be something.

 

Hope to see him at the complex during extended ST. Watched Vladdy there a few years ago and he just stood out, so much more advanced than the others.

[Spanky__99]

Yeah I know a lot of people seem to hate St. Louis (I think because their fans are obnoxious?) - but man, are they a well run team. A team that a fan could really support and enjoy. Like I wish the Jays could develop into the org that the Cards are.

 

It's the fans, and *The Cardinal Way*. That teams admired from most on here I'd believe, in how you should model a franchise, they're a well oiled machine. As for that draft year, it's still early and plenty can change.

[Brownie19]

It's the fans, and *The Cardinal Way*. That teams admired from most on here I'd believe, in how you should model a franchise, they're a well oiled machine. As for that draft year, it's still early and plenty can change.

 

I saw multiple comments yesterday from Cards fans suggesting their FO is stuck in 2011 and will probably keep Walker in the minors for another 3 years. Thought that was interesting. I guess every franchise has their group of grumpy (likely ignorant and outdated) fans that are never happy - no matter how much success the team has.

[The Iceman]

Law in peak mid-season form already. Tiedemann didn't pitch in September. You'd think a decent scout would be capable of looking at the date of his player notes.

 

August 26 Tiedemann pitched against Somerset. i think that is what Law was referencing when he said he watched him in Sept @ Somerset..

[The Iceman]

Law's top 10 outside of his top 100

 

Orelvis Martinez, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays

Age: 21 | 6-1 | 200 pounds

Bats: Right | Throws: Right

International signing in 2018

 

Last year’s ranking: 44

 

Martinez had just 27 games in High A prior to 2022, but the Blue Jays took a chance and promoted him to Double A to start the season. It was too aggressive given Martinez’s lack of plate discipline, and he struggled quite a bit at the level, with a .286 OBP and a 28.5 percent strikeout rate. He did hit 30 homers, however, and played above-average defense at third base with close to average defense at short, although I don’t think he’s going to stay at shortstop for the long term. He was the only 20-year-old to play regularly in the Eastern League last year and one of only three anywhere in Double A; the other two, Jordan Walker and Masyn Winn, are both on the top 100 list. I think it is way too early to give up on Martinez, but I also couldn’t rank him over guys who might have similar ceilings with less risk, or who just have a lot more probability.

[Deadpool]

August 26 Tiedemann pitched against Somerset. i think that is what Law was referencing when he said he watched him in Sept @ Somerset..

 

So, he made a careless mistake by not checking his facts. Yeah, sounds like Law.

[Jimcanuck]

I don't pay attention to Law

[The Iceman]

Keith law must be back at the keyboard.

Org rankings today

 

17. Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays depleted their system with trades and promotions, down to just the one top-100 guy (Ricky Tiedemann), but they still have a deep reserve of middle-infield prospects signed by their international scouting department, along with a couple of outfielders, who are mostly still unrealized potential and just need to get healthy or gain a full year of at-bats. Tiedemann is the pitching prize, but his teammates at Double-A New Hampshire later in the year, like Yosver Zulueta and Hayden Juenger, could be up sooner as bullpen pieces (even as potential long-term starters).

[John_Havok]

Keith law must be back at the keyboard.

Org rankings today

 

17. Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays depleted their system with trades and promotions, down to just the one top-100 guy (Ricky Tiedemann), but they still have a deep reserve of middle-infield prospects signed by their international scouting department, along with a couple of outfielders, who are mostly still unrealized potential and just need to get healthy or gain a full year of at-bats. Tiedemann is the pitching prize, but his teammates at Double-A New Hampshire later in the year, like Yosver Zulueta and Hayden Juenger, could be up sooner as bullpen pieces (even as potential long-term starters).

 

Not a bad take honestly. I dont see much of an arguement for the Jays being anywhere near the top 10, nor the bottom, so middle of the pack seems about right.

[Virgil_Hiltz]

Not a bad take honestly. I dont see much of an arguement for the Jays being anywhere near the top 10, nor the bottom, so middle of the pack seems about right.

 

Considering that these are basically rankings leftover from last yr. There will be a massive adjustment a few months into the MiLB seasons, will be interesting to see the rankings then.

[John_Havok]

Considering that these are basically rankings leftover from last yr. There will be a massive adjustment a few months into the MiLB seasons, will be interesting to see the rankings then.

 

For sure. Guys like Barger, Barreira, Toman, Zulueta could make their way into the top 100 with good showings and Tiedemann should hold strong or even get into the top 15-20. Should that happen, yeah the Farm could climb the rankings by the midpoint.

[The Iceman]

More from Keith law.

3. Brandon Barriera, LHP

Age: 19 | 6-2 | 180 pounds

Bats: Left | Throws: Left

Drafted: No. 23 in 2022

 

Barriera was the Jays’ first-round pick in 2022, a “now” pitcher, kind of the way Andrew Painter was in the 2021 draft, where the stuff is already there and we’re not waiting on physical projection. Barriera has been up to 98 mph with a plus changeup and a high spin-rate curveball, showing fringy or worse command, but also able to just overpower competition in high school. He’s 6-2 and 180-190ish pounds, not offering much room to fill out but also not needing any more velocity or stuff. If he stays healthy this year, he’ll almost certainly be on the top 100 a year from now.

[The Iceman]

4. Tucker Toman, 3B

Age: 19 | 6-1 | 190 pounds

Bats: Switch | Throws: Right

Drafted: No. 77 in 2022

 

Toman was the Jays’ third pick last year, one of four they had on day one, but he took home their second-highest bonus of the draft at $2 million. He’s a switch-hitter who projects to hit for average and to show above-average to plus power as he fills out, with some concerns about his whiffs against better competition as a high schooler. Scouts raved about his feel for the game, as he grew up around the sport with his father spending 13 years as a Division I head coach. Tucker played short and third in high school but third base is his ultimate position. If he makes enough contact, he projects as an above-average regular who has 20+ homers and league-average OBPs.

 

5. Sem Robberse, RHP

Age: 21 | 6-1 | 160 pounds

Bats: Right | Throws: Right

Drafted: International signing in 2019

 

Robberse, the best Dutch prospect currently in the minors, lost some weight going into 2022 and it cost him over a mile an hour on his fastball, something he has to reverse to be more than a fifth starter. He’s a command guy with a great delivery and good spin on two distinct breaking balls. If he threw 96 mph, he’d be a top-10 pitching prospect in the sport. He looks like he could put some weight back on and get himself to solid-average velo, at which point he’s probably a mid-rotation starter given his feel for pitching and present command. I’m betting he gets there.

 

6. Yosver Zulueta, RHP

Age: 25 | 6-1 | 190 pounds

Bats: Right| Throws: Right

Drafted: International signing in 2019

 

Zulueta sits 97-98 mph and has hit 100 many times, showing a full arsenal to start but scattering the ball to the point where he walked 18 men in 19 innings between Double A and Triple A last year. He missed 2019 due to Tommy John surgery, 2020 to the pandemic, and 2021 after he tore an ACL fielding a ball hit by the first batter he ever faced after signing with the Jays in 2018. Last year’s 55 2/3 innings across all four full-season levels marked a career high. He has a super-short arm action that I don’t think he can harness enough to get to even 45 control — which might be all he needs to be a starter, given the raw stuff. His slider and curve might both be plus, assuming he can get to them (rather than falling behind and finding himself forced to throw anything for a strike), giving him a definite path to the majors as a bullpen guy, maybe even this year.

[The Iceman]

7. Hayden Juenger, RHP

Age: 22 | 6-0 | 180 pounds

Bats: Right| Throws: Right

Drafted: No. 182 in 2021

 

Juenger was a little-used reliever at Missouri State, which is kind of hard to fathom given how good he’s been as a starter since the Jays took him in the sixth round in 2021. Did the Bears have three future MLB aces in their rotation or something? Anyway, Juenger works 92-97 mph with a 55 change and 50/55 slider, missing some bats with all three, but also making mistakes with all three in the upper half of the zone. He gave up 18 homers in 83 innings between Double A and Triple A, half on his fastball, which has velocity but not a ton of life. He could still be a back-end starter if he improves his command in what will be just his second year of starting, although he was less homer-prone working in relief to manage his innings later in the year, so that’s more of a possibility for him to help the major-league team in the near term. The Jays really should call him up this year. After all, he’s not getting any Juenger.

 

8. Gabriel Martinez, OF

Age: 20 | 6-0 | 170 pounds

Bats: Right | Throws: Right

Drafted: International signing in 2018

 

Martinez is a corner outfielder who already shows advanced command of the strike zone for a 19-year-old, hitting .293/.355/.477 between Low and High A last year, with just a 16.4 percent strikeout rate and 37 extra-base hits in 96 games. He projected to have power when younger but didn’t hit a pro home run that counted until this past year — his first one, in 2021, was disallowed because he passed a runner while rounding the bases — and ended up with 14 on the season. He’s adequate in either corner in the outfield, so there’s some pressure on the bat. Given what he’s already done at 19, with room to get even stronger, he has a high probability of becoming a regular or more given his age and experience level.

 

9. Leo Jimenez, SS

Age: 22 | 5-11 | 215 pounds

Bats: Right | Throws: Right

Drafted: International signing in 2017

 

Jimenez’s first year in High A was a mixed bag, as the Panamanian shortstop went from 1 career home run to 6 in just a half-season, but was limited by injury to 69 games (which is NOT nice) and saw his plate discipline numbers both head in the wrong directions. He’s still a high-contact hitter and the power was the result of him putting on a good amount of muscle the previous offseason, but needs a consolidation year where he recaptures the selectivity that made him interesting before 2022 and the power he showed last year. He’s a fringy defender at short now, putting more pressure on the bat. He needs a full season of at-bats more than anything else right now.

[The Iceman]

10. Addison Barger, IF

Age: 23 | 6-0 | 175 pounds

Bats: Left | Throws: Right

Drafted: No. 176 in 2018

 

Barger started making harder contact in 2021 out of the pandemic, then held on to those gains and added a little more with moves up to High A and Double A last season. There’s real power here, 20-odd homers if he could play every day, but he looked far different against lefties with decent stuff and might be better off as the strong side of a platoon. He’s not a shortstop but he’s solid at third and I see no reason he couldn’t handle second. He could be a regular at either of those spots on a non-contender, whereas for a good club he’s a very good utility infielder who can handle short on a temporary basis and would also be a valuable pinch-hitter when he’s sitting against a lefty starter.

 

11. Dasan Brown, OF

Age: 21 | 6-0 | 185 pounds

Bats: Right | Throws: Right

Drafted: No. 88 in 2019

 

Brown’s an 80 runner and no worse than a 60 defender in center, with explosive bat speed and better contact quality last year in his age-20 season. There’s just too much swing and miss right now, especially for someone with his offensive profile; he struck out 28.3 percent of the time last year between Low and High A, although in his defense, he had all of 65 pro games under his belt before last year due to injury and the pandemic year. He’s also from greater Toronto, which is worth an extra 0.5 runs a game, I think. I’m not sure about the current exchange rate.

 

12. Josh Kasevich, SS

Age: 22 | 6-2 | 200 pounds

Bats: Right | Throws: Right

Drafted: No. 60 in 2022

 

Kasevich is a lot like Angels infielder David Fletcher, a capable middle infielder who never struck out in college, takes a few walks, and has too little power to play every day. Fletcher has already been worth 10.5 WAR in his career, even with a .274/.324/.360 line, because he’s an elite defender at second and a 45 defender at short, and he puts the ball in play enough to get by. I think that’s Kasevich’s most likely path to success as well; in his two years as a starter at Oregon, he struck out 7.6 percent of the time, and in his pro debut in Low A he struck out 7.4 percent of the time, but with no power anywhere. I like him, even with these limitations, perhaps because there’s something old-school about this style of player, and in a peculiar way he’s become undervalued.

[The Iceman]

13. Cade Doughty, 3B/2B

Age: 22 | 6-1 | 195 pounds

Bats: Right | Throws: Right

Drafted: No. 78 in 2022

 

Doughty was the Jays’ fourth pick of the 2022 draft, as they had two extra picks for losing Robbie Ray and Marcus Semien, using them on Doughty and Tucker Toman. Doughty crushes fastballs, hitting with a very wide stance that doesn’t give him a lot of time to adjust to offspeed stuff. He’s a 45 defender at third or second right now and might move to an outfield corner, where he has the power to profile but probably not the hit tool, at least not yet.

 

14. Adam Macko, LHP

Age: 22 | 6-0 | 170 pounds

Bats: Left | Throws: Left

Drafted: No. 219 in 2019

 

Macko came back to Toronto in the deal that sent Teoscar Hernández to Seattle, and he has one of the most interesting back stories in the minors: He was born in Slovakia and began playing baseball there, then moved to Ireland for a few years and continued playing, finally going to high school in Alberta, leading the Mariners to draft him in the seventh round in 2019. Macko is 92-95 mph in relief with an above-average slider, and iffy control, and he’s had trouble staying healthy as a starter, including a bout of shoulder soreness that ended his 2021 season. I think he has a future in relief and might prefer to see him move there now to avoid further stints on the IL.

 

15. Dahian Santos, RHP

Age: 20 | 5-11 | 160 pounds

Bats: Right | Throws: Right

Drafted: International signing in 2019

 

Santos is a 5-11 right-hander who changed his breaking ball grip last year and used it to strike out a ton of guys. Maybe more pitchers should do that. But really, he struck out 39.3 percent of batters he faced — while working as a starter — in Low A, then made four starts in High A and struck out 34 percent. Granted, his ERA at the second stop was over 10, but let’s not split hairs here. He’s mostly a two-pitch guy who has a changeup but didn’t use it much until the very end of the year, and lefties tagged him for a .370 OBP last year. If he uses the changeup more and it turns out it’s enough to neutralize lefties, even partly relative to what he does against righties, he’s a fourth starter.

[The Iceman]

16. Adrian Pinto, SS

Age: 20 | 5-6 | 156 pounds

Bats: Right | Throws: Right

Drafted: International signing in 2019

 

Acquired last winter in the trade that sent Randal Grichuk to Colorado for reasons I can’t quite understand, Pinto might end up the most valuable part of the trade. He’s a fun-sized infielder, listed at 5-6, who runs plus and has sneaky pop for his size, makes good swing decisions, and has a very tiny strike zone. He’s stretched at short but could probably be above average at second base. He only played 47 games last year and now has just 418 total PA in his career, more than half of them in the DSL in 2021, so he needs reps — and we need to see him more. I’m interested, and not just because he’s my height.

 

17. Manuel Beltre, SS/2B

Age: 19 | 5-9 | 195 pounds

Bats: Right | Throws: Right

Drafted: International signing in 2021

 

Beltre continued to improve his defense to the point where he looks like he’ll stay at shortstop and play at least above-average defense. His bat didn’t take the big jump last year as he hit just .234/.351/.310 in his U.S. debut in the FCL. He still has a pretty right-handed swing that produces hard contact, and at some point that should translate into not just in-game power but higher BABIPs as well. He’ll turn 19 in June, so he’s the equivalent of a high school senior right now but will still probably go to Low A. The everyday or better upside is still here, but I suppose I’ll have to learn some patience, if I ever have the time.

 

18. Alex de Jesus, 3B

Age: 21 | 6-2 | 170 pounds

Bats: Right | Throws: Right

Drafted: International signing in 2018

 

De Jesus was in the midst of a great season for a 20-year-old when he found himself traded from the Dodgers to Toronto along with Mitch White for prospects Nick Frasso and Moises Brito. For whatever reason, he didn’t hit at all after the trade, albeit in a small sample. He has a fantastic swing from the right side, with good hand acceleration and a simple, direct path to the ball, with power that started to emerge in 2021 and came on further last year. He runs deep counts with high walk and strikeout totals, punching out too often (29.3 percent), but does enough at the plate that it could all work if he cuts that percentage just a little bit, down to one in four or so. The Dodgers had mostly moved him to third base, but the Jays put him back at shortstop more than they played him at the hot corner; he’s way more likely to end up at third, or even second. If he puts the ball in play more, he has the other skills to be a regular. That’s a big if, though, even for a kid who’ll turn 21 in March.

[The Iceman]

19. Otto Lopez, UT

Age: 24 | 5-10 | 185 pounds

Bats: Right | Throws: Right

Drafted: International signing in 2016

 

Lopez is a perfect utility man; he can play short and center on a temporary basis, and obviously most of the other positions as well, and he puts the ball in play a lot. He lacks the power or even the impact to be a regular, but that positional versatility combined with a high contact rate makes him a perfect fifth infielder/fourth outfielder, someone who might end up playing 100+ games a year but never be a regular.

 

20. Rainer Nuñez, 1B

Age: 22 | 6-3 | 180 pounds

Bats: Right | Throws: Right

Drafted: International signing in 2016

 

Nuñez was signed as a shortstop but he’s gotten so big that he’s either going to play first base, where he needs work, or end up a DH, but he puts the ball in play consistently and can crush a mistake. If he had better plate discipline, he’d be somewhere in the top 10 for the Jays because there’d be more margin for error around the bat. As is, he has to hit for a fairly high average and get to enough mistakes to keep his slug up enough to give him value as a bat-only first baseman. The contact skill is there, so there’s hope.

 

Others of note

First baseman Spencer Horwitz had a huge half-season in Double A at 24 to start 2022, moved up to Triple A, and fell a good bit back to earth. He does have a very good eye at the plate and gets the bat on the ball, but it’s 45 power and he doesn’t hit lefties. Platoon first basemen without power are hard-pressed to find a path to playing time, for good reason … Right-hander C.J. Van Eyk missed the year due to Tommy John surgery but should be back for spring training; he has mid-rotation stuff but in his pro debut in 2021 showed 45 control and 40 command … Right-hander Irv Carter was the Jays’ fifth-rounder in 2021 and struggled in his pro debut last year, but he did sit 93 with a solid-average changeup, and there’s still projection here to the body and delivery.

 

2023 impact

I think Zulueta or Juenger could come up at any point as relievers if the team needs relief help, while Tiedemann probably won’t come up until they have a place for him to start.

 

The fallen

Adam Kloffenstein was their third-round pick in 2018, earning a first-round bonus (and the second-highest of any player taken after the first round), but his stuff has backed up significantly since high school, as he was 90-91 mph in Double A with below-average secondaries and posted a 6+ ERA.

 

Sleeper

Gabriel Martinez looks poised for a big breakout at this point. If he keeps up what he did for High-A Vancouver in the last month of the season, he’ll be in the top 50 next winter.

[Deadpool]

Seems like Law is a real outlier on Barger... Also, I don't remember so many puns from him in the past.

[The_DH]

Law's top 10 outside of his top 100

 

Orelvis Martinez, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays

Age: 21 | 6-1 | 200 pounds

Bats: Right | Throws: Right

International signing in 2018

 

Last year’s ranking: 44

 

Martinez had just 27 games in High A prior to 2022, but the Blue Jays took a chance and promoted him to Double A to start the season. It was too aggressive given Martinez’s lack of plate discipline, and he struggled quite a bit at the level, with a .286 OBP and a 28.5 percent strikeout rate. He did hit 30 homers, however, and played above-average defense at third base with close to average defense at short, although I don’t think he’s going to stay at shortstop for the long term. He was the only 20-year-old to play regularly in the Eastern League last year and one of only three anywhere in Double A; the other two, Jordan Walker and Masyn Winn, are both on the top 100 list. I think it is way too early to give up on Martinez, but I also couldn’t rank him over guys who might have similar ceilings with less risk, or who just have a lot more probability.

 

Thanks for collecting all this, Iceman. When I was younger I used to pay for those crappy magazines that maybe gave you 5 prospects. This is awesome.

[Jimcanuck]

Thanks for collecting all this, Iceman. When I was younger I used to pay for those crappy magazines that maybe gave you 5 prospects. This is awesome.

 

I still have my Street and Smith's from the 1970s. Apparently worth something now.

[The_DH]

I still have my Street and Smith's from the 1970s. Apparently worth something now.

 

Wonder how many of the players in that one have kids in the league now. Guerrero, Biggio, Bichette, etc etc. But yeah, I remember spending the $5-10 on those "magazines". I forget which one it was, but one was definitely better than the rest.

[Jimcanuck]

Wonder how many of the players in that one have kids in the league now. Guerrero, Biggio, Bichette, etc etc. But yeah, I remember spending the $5-10 on those "magazines". I forget which one it was, but one was definitely better than the rest.

 

Street and Smith was the top dog

[The_DH]

Street and Smith was the top dog

 

Yes it was a good one but I always liked Bill Mazeroski's.

[Virgil_Hiltz]

I still have my Street and Smith's from the 1970s. Apparently worth something now.

 

all time best!

I remember having a general sports magazine in the early 70's where they list the superstars who were making over 100gs a yr! There really was only about 15 to 20 athletes who qualified.

[The_DH]

19. Otto Lopez, UT

Age: 24 | 5-10 | 185 pounds

Bats: Right | Throws: Right

Drafted: International signing in 2016

 

Lopez is a perfect utility man; he can play short and center on a temporary basis, and obviously most of the other positions as well, and he puts the ball in play a lot. He lacks the power or even the impact to be a regular, but that positional versatility combined with a high contact rate makes him a perfect fifth infielder/fourth outfielder, someone who might end up playing 100+ games a year but never be a regular.

 

20. Rainer Nuñez, 1B

Age: 22 | 6-3 | 180 pounds

Bats: Right | Throws: Right

Drafted: International signing in 2016

 

Nuñez was signed as a shortstop but he’s gotten so big that he’s either going to play first base, where he needs work, or end up a DH, but he puts the ball in play consistently and can crush a mistake. If he had better plate discipline, he’d be somewhere in the top 10 for the Jays because there’d be more margin for error around the bat. As is, he has to hit for a fairly high average and get to enough mistakes to keep his slug up enough to give him value as a bat-only first baseman. The contact skill is there, so there’s hope.

 

Others of note

First baseman Spencer Horwitz had a huge half-season in Double A at 24 to start 2022, moved up to Triple A, and fell a good bit back to earth. He does have a very good eye at the plate and gets the bat on the ball, but it’s 45 power and he doesn’t hit lefties. Platoon first basemen without power are hard-pressed to find a path to playing time, for good reason … Right-hander C.J. Van Eyk missed the year due to Tommy John surgery but should be back for spring training; he has mid-rotation stuff but in his pro debut in 2021 showed 45 control and 40 command … Right-hander Irv Carter was the Jays’ fifth-rounder in 2021 and struggled in his pro debut last year, but he did sit 93 with a solid-average changeup, and there’s still projection here to the body and delivery.

 

2023 impact

I think Zulueta or Juenger could come up at any point as relievers if the team needs relief help, while Tiedemann probably won’t come up until they have a place for him to start.

 

The fallen

Adam Kloffenstein was their third-round pick in 2018, earning a first-round bonus (and the second-highest of any player taken after the first round), but his stuff has backed up significantly since high school, as he was 90-91 mph in Double A with below-average secondaries and posted a 6+ ERA.

 

Sleeper

Gabriel Martinez looks poised for a big breakout at this point. If he keeps up what he did for High-A Vancouver in the last month of the season, he’ll be in the top 50 next winter.

 

when I read analyses like these, I wonder why Horwitz was put on the 40. I don't see his value. I'd like to think another Don Mattingly but that's too blue sky thinking.

[wamco]

Interview with Keith law-

 

BB: There have been a lot of articles in the Toronto press about the new facility in Dunedin and the usefulness of the hitting and pitching labs there. They have even suggested that some players have asked to be drafted by the Jays or signed with the Jays because of the facility. How unique is the Jays facility?

 

KL: I can't speak to that at all, sorry. I haven't done any real research into the specifics of teams' facilities. I don't want to speak out of turn.

 

 

BB: When I look at player development I see three aspects, the draft, player development and luck. With luck I include injuries and when a low round pick turns into a player with major league value. I have several questions about this. First, the Jays drafting doesn't seem to have a theme, or a philosophy, behind it. In 2021 it was almost all pitchers. In 2022 mostly hitters and hitters with a bat first profile, generally non athletic. How would you grade the Jays drafting generally?

 

KL: I think they're more geared towards best player available than to a specific category of players. Last year's draft ('22) was a terrible college crop, with almost no college pitching up top, so they made a pretty clear adjustment around that. I'm not sure they'd normally go for a HS arm in the first round, but given who was on the board at that point, you could easily argue Barriera was the BPA. Anyway, I think they're drafting quite well over the last three or four years, especially if you consider their ability to convert some high picks into help for the major-league roster via trades.

 

 

BB: What do you think of the 2022 draft approach, drafting good bat to ball guys.

 

KL: I don't think that was their draft approach last year, though. Toman isn't necessarily that, and I don't think that's Doughty's defining characteristic. It is definitely true of Kasevich, though.

 

 

BB: In regard to player development, some teams have earned a reputation for their development (Dodgers, Guardians and Rays for example). When you think of the Jays and player development what comes to mind?

 

KL: No single thing comes to mind here. They're around the middle of the pack in development. They've had enough successes and failures on both sides of the ball that I wouldn't say that they're especially good or bad at developing any category of player. They do have a big group of position-player prospects from high A to the DSL who came into the org through international free agency who present them with a big player development opportunity, but also a challenge. These are talented kids who have a lot of work ahead of them to become the players we think they can become. I hope the struggles of Orelvis Martinez this year lead the Jays to reconsider pushing some of those kids.

 

 

BB: Minor league strikeout rate is often used as a statistical scouting method for pitchers. You have ranked two pitchers in your Jays top 10 that have a lower strikeout rate in Sem Robberse and Hayden Juenger. Is this where pitchability and the ability to pitch to (weak) contact is an offset to the lower strikeout numbers?

 

KL" Yeah, 'statistical scouting' isn't really a thing. You can and should look at strikeout rates for pitchers, but it's a supplement to scouting, not a replacement for it. Both those guys have reasons why they're in my top 10 with those lower rates. Robberse has everything you want in a mid-rotation type except for power - he lost velocity last year versus 2021, and that meant he missed fewer bats. If he returns to his 2021 velocity levels, on all his pitches, his strikeout rate will almost certainly go up, and with his command and feel for pitching that will make him that potential mid-rotation guy. Or maybe he even gains a little more velocity than that. I like guys who miss bats, but I'm willing to project on some pitchers to improve in that area, or to boost guys who show other ways to get around higher contact rates (e.g., weak contact/groundball tendencies).

 

 

BB: A number of the Jays international signings had poor 2022's. I am thinking of Luis Meza, Manual Beltre, Estivan Machado and others. They are all still young and you have Beltre in your top 20. At what age, or stage, do you start to give up on a young prospect?

 

KL: I don't have a hard and fast rule on this, but I like to see progress of some sort - adjustments on the field, improvements in the stat line, even progress in Trackman data. If a kid doesn't have a better year at the plate but he's hitting the ball harder, that's still progress. When players stop making progress, that's when I start to give up. And I agree that their IFA group as a whole didn't do as well last year as I'd hoped.

 

 

BB: You still have hope for Orelvis, despite his free swinging ways. Are there major league players you can think of who have gone from a swing for the fences approach and had a successful major league career?

 

KL: Sure, tons. Whatever you might think of Joey Gallo now, he's generated almost 15 WAR before turning 29. If Orelvis is only a .290 OBP guy with this power and good defense at third, he'd be a starter on at least a handful of teams. I don't think he's that player right now, but that's within reach - and he's only 21 this year. Start him at AA again with some real help on swing decisions and see if he makes any adjustments.

 

 

BB: Are there new technologies that help a player develop more selectivity at the plate? I would think that there are visual training systems that simulate at-bats that should help a player and grade his swing decisions.

 

KL: Yes, I wrote about some of that in my piece on Austin Riley back in August of 2021. There are simulators that help hitters work on pitch recognition and tracking.