Sign Marco Estrada to an extension

[glory]

I think someone will give him a three year deal. Whether he takes the risk of declining the QO is the question.

 

He definitely seems like a guy that Dave Stewart will overpay.

[GD]

You guys are underestimating the market. A lot of the big payroll teams are looking to buy pitching. Red Sox, Dodgers, Cubs. Estrada will get something like 4 years 60M or 5 years 65.

 

All of those teams are smart though

[Frenchsoup]

This upcoming off-season is going to be interestingly awesome.

[baubau]

All of those teams are smart though

 

I can see Arizona being dumb enough. Probably hear a blip from Stewart about wanting guys that can perform in the post season and say he'd take him over Price in the FA market. While I want to think they aren't dumb, Padres could surprise me.

[EMK19]

As I said in the other thread I think Navarro might become a factor here. He will obviously not back up/be a personal catcher for another year so I'm not sure how comfortable and effective Estrada would be with Martin even if he does come back. Has Martin caught Estrada this year at all as a starter? Would be interesting to see the numbers. If Estrada does end up going elsewhere, I can see that team also going after Navarro.

[Krylian]

This upcoming off-season is going to be interestingly awesome.

 

Will they go beyond 5 years?

 

I want an ace.

[saskjayfan]

You guys are underestimating the market. A lot of the big payroll teams are looking to buy pitching. Red Sox, Dodgers, Cubs. Estrada will get something like 4 years 60M or 5 years 65.

 

Porcello is getting 82.5 mil for 4 years....I'm sure Estrada's agent can get 4 years 60 out of someone, especially the way he's pitched this post season.

[Dr Negative]

I can see Arizona being dumb enough. Probably hear a blip from Stewart about wanting guys that can perform in the post season and say he'd take him over Price in the FA market. While I want to think they aren't dumb, Padres could surprise me.

 

Estrada would be really good in Petco though, might be a decent signing for them.

[jayswin11]

gotta offer him arbitration

[o2cui2i]

I find it interesting the way people look at our off season. We are FOR SURE losing 200+ innings of MB. Many think the jays should walk away from Dickey and many think we should pass on Estrada.

 

Do the jays really have the money to go out and buy 2 top end FA starters? Dickey has a 12M opt year with 1 million buyout. so cost is only 11 million for 230 innings from a 2+ WAR starter.

 

MB 18M comes off the books and the Ricky Romero contract is gone for next year. Is the team ready to put out 50M AAV for two starters and then Stroman, Osuna and Hutch?

[Yorkshire Blue Jay]

I find it interesting the way people look at our off season. We are FOR SURE losing 200+ innings of MB. Many think the jays should walk away from Dickey and many think we should pass on Estrada.

 

Do the jays really have the money to go out and buy 2 top end FA starters? Dickey has a 12M opt year with 1 million buyout. so cost is only 11 million for 230 innings from a 2+ WAR starter.

 

MB 18M comes off the books and the Ricky Romero contract is gone for next year. Is the team ready to put out 50M AAV for two starters and then Stroman, Osuna and Hutch?

 

With most of the pitching depth in the farm traded away in the deadline deals, I felt sure that he Jays would stabilise the rotation with a couple of free agents on multi-year deals thus allowing the farm to be restocked.

 

The impact Price has had on the club may lead them to acquire an ace (not necessarily Price) and a lower tier starter rather than 2 mid tier starters. Only time will tell I guess.

 

I think they will give Estrada a QO but he will leave and get more elsewhere through his post season showing so far.

[Caper]

Is there a draft pick attached to Estrada if he declines?

[GD]

Is there a draft pick attached to Estrada if he declines?

 

Yes. Don't think he declines, though.

[Grant77]

Is there a draft pick attached to Estrada if he declines?

 

Absolutely.

[baubau]

Yes. Don't think he declines, though.

 

Why do you say that?

[BTS]

Why do you say that?

 

1/17 is a lot of money. There isn't a recent precedent for a pitcher projected at like a 4.5 ERA getting a contract big enough to turn it down. Not that it can't happen, but there aren't a lot of truly stupid FO's left.

[admin]

Estrada's gonna get paid. There's a ton of GMs licking their chops watching him pitch. Hopefully Jays don't foolishly give him too much. Would love to see him here, but not for #2 starter money.

[THANOS]

I'd love to have Estrada back but would we be able to resign Navarro to make it worth it?

[jays_fever]

1/17 is a lot of money. There isn't a recent precedent for a pitcher projected at like a 4.5 ERA getting a contract big enough to turn it down. Not that it can't happen, but there aren't a lot of truly stupid FO's left.

 

Ervin Santana got 4 years, 60 mil and contracts will just continue to go up.

[BTS]

I'm curious as to what everyone thinks of Hector Santiago. If he were a Blue Jay, would you offer him 17M? If not, what makes Estrada the much better investment?

[BTS]

Ervin Santana got 4 years, 60 mil and contracts will just continue to go up.

 

Santana was actually good though.

[L54]

Do we know for sure what the QO will be worth this year?

 

It will be interesting to see what happens with Marco, and if conformation bias clouds AA's decision making on whether or not to qualify him. Buck and Pat have talked a lot about how AA has been trying to get him for a few years.

 

Personally I wouldn't offer him one, but it's close. I'm glad I'm not one having to make that decision.

[GD]

Why do you say that?

 

Scenario A: $17m guaranteed, opportunity for additional ~$30m following the season with no draft pick being tied to signing you

Scenario B: $0 guaranteed, draft pick tied to signing you, likely $25m at most guaranteed over 3 years and that's probably it for you

[BTS]

Do we know for sure what the QO will be worth this year?

 

It will be interesting to see what happens with Marco, and if conformation bias clouds AA's decision making on whether or not to qualify him. Buck and Pat have talked a lot about how AA has been trying to get him for a few years.

 

Personally I wouldn't offer him one, but it's close. I'm glad I'm not one having to make that decision.

 

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/25333950/qualifying-offer-set-at-158-million-which-f_2

 

$15.8M

 

My bad earlier saying 17.

[jays_fever]

Santana was actually good though.

 

Estrada's had a pretty good 2012, 2013, 2015. You get paid as a free agent for what you've done, not what you project to contribute going forward. He just blanked baseball's wonder team on national TV. There aren't 30 Friedman's.

[baubau]

1/17 is a lot of money. There isn't a recent precedent for a pitcher projected at like a 4.5 ERA getting a contract big enough to turn it down. Not that it can't happen, but there aren't a lot of truly stupid FO's left.

 

I am a gambling man BTS. A gambling man. I am betting on the idiots to give Estrada a offer he cannot refuse. If the Jays do not qualify him I wouldn't be upset, I can understand they are more risk averse than I am. I just see this as a situation where Estrada probably is at the peak of his career in terms of hype and will want to bank/go out and see what he can bank on. Will likely be his final MLB contract.

 

With that also being said, I am going to continue to hope that AA/MS can trade Goins for Anderson from the D-backs. A pitcher with a effective change-up goes pretty well against the division.

[Stangstag]

I'm telling you guys, Estrada will get at least a 4/40 deal.

[BTS]

I am a gambling man BTS. A gambling man. I am betting on the idiots to give Estrada a offer he cannot refuse. If the Jays do not qualify him I wouldn't be upset, I can understand they are more risk averse than I am. I just see this as a situation where Estrada probably is at the peak of his career in terms of hype and will want to bank/go out and see what he can bank on. Will likely be his final MLB contract.

 

With that also being said, I am going to continue to hope that AA/MS can trade Goins for Anderson from the D-backs. A pitcher with a effective change-up goes pretty well against the division.

 

There's just so much risk there. You'd almost have to know 100% beforehand that he'd decline. If the team has ~30M to spend on two starters and ties half of it up on a guy that every projection system will have with an ERA close to 4.5 would be disastrous.

[GD]

I am a gambling man BTS. A gambling man. I am betting on the idiots to give Estrada a offer he cannot refuse. If the Jays do not qualify him I wouldn't be upset, I can understand they are more risk averse than I am. I just see this as a situation where Estrada probably is at the peak of his career in terms of hype and will want to bank/go out and see what he can bank on. Will likely be his final MLB contract.

 

With that also being said, I am going to continue to hope that AA/MS can trade Goins for Anderson from the D-backs. A pitcher with a effective change-up goes pretty well against the division.

 

No, you would be betting on Estrada to be betting on the idiots to give him an offer he can't refuse.

[GD]

Estrada is projected for a 4.48 ERA an 4.93 FIP.