Sign Marco Estrada to an extension

[Caper]

What are some recent FA comps to Estrada?

 

Off the top of my head:

- Jason Vargas pre-2014 (4/32)

- Chris Young pre-2015 (1/700K + bonuses)

- Aaron Harang pre-2015 (1/5)

- Kyle Kendrick pre-2015 (1/5.5)

 

Jason Hammel pre-2015 and Colon pre-2014 would have projected better than Estrada will and signed for 2/20. I think someone will probably go to something like 2/16 for him and he'll throw like 300 innings of ~4.3 ERA ball as a 5th starter.

 

 

 

I keep hearing he has one of the best change ups in baseball. Does having the best of something explain why he is beating expectations?

[93 Jays]

It's not one good season. Estrada has been a very decent pitcher dating back to 2012, with 2014 being the outlier. He has earned himself a $25M+ contract.

 

 

LOL, 19-18 with an ERA lingering around 4 with an average of 20 starts per season with an FIP averaging around 4.4 and this earns him 25 million? Come on, not even close. 1 year, he's worth 15 max and he won't get more than 16 or 17 I'm guessing and from his numbers, you'd have to be desperate as f*** to do that

[BTS]

I keep hearing he has one of the best change ups in baseball. Does having the best of something explain why he is beating expectations?

 

Yeah, that and being an extreme flyball guy point to someone who's probably going to have an ERA less than his DIPS. But not 1.8 better than his DIPS. Every projection system will probably have him with an ERA over 4, and like 2 tenths of a run less than his DIPS.

[Atothe]

What are some recent FA comps to Estrada?

 

Off the top of my head:

- Jason Vargas pre-2014 (4/32)

- Chris Young pre-2015 (1/700K + bonuses)

- Aaron Harang pre-2015 (1/5)

- Kyle Kendrick pre-2015 (1/5.5)

 

Jason Hammel pre-2015 and Colon pre-2014 would have projected better than Estrada will and signed for 2/20. I think someone will probably go to something like 2/16 for him and he'll throw like 300 innings of ~4.3 ERA ball as a 5th starter.

 

thats decent value

[BTS]

I keep hearing he has one of the best change ups in baseball. Does having the best of something explain why he is beating expectations?

 

Yeah, that and being an extreme flyball guy point to someone who's probably going to have an ERA less than his DIPS. But not 1.8 better than his DIPS. Every projection system will probably have him with an ERA over 4, and like 2 tenths of a run less than his DIPS.

[BTS]

thats decent value

 

Yeah, it would be. Would be an OK depth signing. I just really think extending a QO would be a huge mistake.

[Cyborg]

Yeah, it would be. Would be an OK depth signing. I just really think extending a QO would be a huge mistake.

You can't say it's a mistake without knowing the odds that he would accept it.

[BTS]

You can't say it's a mistake without knowing the odds that he would accept it.

 

Obviously it being offered and declined would be a good thing, but absent any inside information, I'm assuming he would accept.

[candymartinez]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/marco-estrada-al-contact-manager-of-the-year/

[fatcowxlive]

Yeah, it would be. Would be an OK depth signing. I just really think extending a QO would be a huge mistake.

 

QO??? To Estrada???

 

I was thinking that we might be able to lock him in on a 2+1 year deal with $8MM of salary per year for the first 2... I mean given his track record of Yuni/Bautista/EE extensions (and to a certain extent Dickey's contract as well) and with Donaldson due for a long term deal, I would think AA will be pinching for every last penny with Estrada

[Key22]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/marco-estrada-al-contact-manager-of-the-year/

 

"FIP really blows it on Estrada. His 4.40 FIP gives him absolutely no credit for his miniscule liner rate and all of those “donut-hole” fly balls. In his particular case, ERA much more actually portrays Estrada’s true talent."

[Krylian]

Estrada will get at least 3 years from someone, and likely more. We all know how valuable pitching is.

[Atothe]

Estrada will get at least 3 years from someone, and likely more. We all know how valuable pitching is.

 

And he should take it if he's a smart man, take the guaranteed deal

[rydermike]

I would go for a 2+1 deal ( 10 ,10 ,10 if option is team option or 8,9,10 if option is player option - make him give up some $ for the optout)

[gbill2004]

Get er done AA!

[Krylian]

Revere's swung and missed more times in this playoffs than the entire season.

 

............aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaand wrong thread.

[metafour]

Obviously it being offered and declined would be a good thing, but absent any inside information, I'm assuming he would accept.

 

Still think this? Someone will give him a ~3 year $30 million deal minimum. You have to QO him at this point, which is good because that means we're at least getting a pick for him if we don't resign him ourselves.

[Angrioter]

Marco QO please

[tazsub3]

Marco QO please

 

three year contract.where do i sign??

[Atothe]

Estrada gonna get paid. WOW

[Krylian]

Can Marco Estrada stick?

[glory]

Yeah, qualifying Estrada is a no brainer. He won't accept coming off the season and post season that he's had. Even if he does, it's a one year deal when the Jays have practically no SP depth. No lose situation.

[jays_fever]

Estrada put up a 3.13 ERA in the AL East and is having one heck of a post season. 5 years 70 MIL isnt out of the question and I'm not saying I agree with it, but GM's are always looking for a pitcher to help them right away

[John_Havok]

Estrada put up a 3.13 ERA in the AL East and is having one heck of a post season. 5 years 70 MIL isnt out of the question and I'm not saying I agree with it, but GM's are always looking for a pitcher to help them right away

 

If any GM gives Estrada 5/70 they're an idiot. His skillet is precisely one that never gets paid because he's walking the edge of a knife every time he pitches. Flyball pitchers that rely on weak contact as their only attribute are implosions waiting to happen.

[flafson]

Estrada put up a 3.13 ERA in the AL East and is having one heck of a post season. 5 years 70 MIL isnt out of the question and I'm not saying I agree with it, but GM's are always looking for a pitcher to help them right away

 

Nobody is giving a 32 year old starter 5 years and 70M who throws 89mph and had 1 good season.

A 2-3 year deal I can see, but 5? No way Jose.

[baubau]

Nobody is giving a 32 year old starter 5 years and 70M who throws 89mph and had 1 good season.

A 2-3 year deal I can see, but 5? No way Jose.

 

To say Estrada has 1 good season is unfair to him. He's had at least 3, where 2012 was his best (3.3 WAR).

[RealAccountant]

Nobody is giving a 32 year old starter 5 years and 70M who throws 89mph and had 1 good season.

A 2-3 year deal I can see, but 5? No way Jose.

 

I think the best is probably 3/36

 

There are a lot of good starters this offseason

[Jonn]

You guys are underestimating the market. A lot of the big payroll teams are looking to buy pitching. Red Sox, Dodgers, Cubs. Estrada will get something like 4 years 60M or 5 years 65.

[Atothe]

I think some dumb GM like Stewart will give Estrada 3-40

[closetjaysfan]

Estrada put up a 3.13 ERA in the AL East and is having one heck of a post season. 5 years 70 MIL isnt out of the question and I'm not saying I agree with it, but GM's are always looking for a pitcher to help them right away

 

With an 89 mph fastball at age 32 and will be lucky to survive in the league past 35. 3 for 40 is the most I see him getting and he is robbing an idiot GM with that deal.