Sign Marco Estrada to an extension

[Farm]

You can't sign and trade in baseball. Teams have to wait until like, mid-June to trade someone who accepts a QO.

 

Evaluating Estrada's true talent is very tricky. Under FIP theory he was a ~2 WAR pitcher this year, but if you believe in his ability to manipulate contact quality and live in the "donut hole" then he might be closer to a ~4 WAR starting pitcher (bWAR 3.6, RA9-WAR 4.5).

 

Estrada hasn't really underperformed his FIP by a large amount in his career. This is basically the only year that he's done it. But, if you look at his pitch mix, through 2013 he was a different pitcher who threw ~20% curveballs. He's cut that in half in 2014/2015 and now he's 60/30/10 in FB/CH/CU frequency. And in 2014 he did underperform his FIP by a little bit.

 

Figuring out exactly what type of contract Marco Estrada is worth is very tricky. Watching him pitch all year makes you think there's a lot going on that FIP ignores, but there isn't a large body of data to support any conclusions on that front.

 

Either way, he's easily worth a QO at this point even if he's just a league average SP.

 

Buehrle I expect to retire right now, after what happened with his shoulder this year and him getting left off the playoff roster. This playoff run might seem like a good way to end his career. We'll see.

 

I agree with you on Estrada. He's worth a QO even if he is just a FIP pitcher. But he isn't if he is a xFIP pitcher. But at the same time, I would be willing to bet that high spin rates combined with good command and/or good secondaries leads to below average HR/FB rates.

 

I'm not so sure about Buehrle. I get the sense that he isn't ready to retire quite yet, but wants back to Chicago. Honestly, there's nothing wrong with wanting to go back home or somewhere you are more comfortable with. If you look at his stats he really hasn't changed much this year, there's no reason to believe that he's finished in terms of pitching ability. Maybe he's tired though.

[KingKat]

Yeah, if he accepts then so what. Not the worst contract ever.

 

If he declines and it kills his market, then they can sign him to a reasonable 2/3 year deal.

 

If he declines and someone else grabs him - woot woot.

 

If someone grabs him, you still have to find those innings for 2016. I care more about that than a future draft pick. I mean at least you get something for him but it's the worst case IMO.

[Dr. Dinger]

Yeah, if he accepts then so what. Not the worst contract ever.

 

If he declines and it kills his market, then they can sign him to a reasonable 2/3 year deal.

 

If he declines and someone else grabs him - woot woot.

 

I actually feel like the most likely team to sign him other than the Jays is the Royals. Not just because of how he's pitched against them, but because they love that type of underrated pitcher and his tendencies would play well in their park.

[Laika]

I think I read that Buehrle had four cortisone shots this year just to make it through the season. There was also a lot of talk about Beurhle telling Stroman that he would hold the fort down until he came back, and the team seemed pretty emotionally invested in that whole thing coming to fruition with Buehrle running on fumes at the end of the season, his velocity barely hanging above 80mph, everyone hugging him after his last start like his career was over, and all that jazz.

 

Reading between the lines, I think his shoulder is a physical mess and it's a foregone conclusion that he'll retire. Could be wrong though.

[Laika]

If someone grabs him, you still have to find those innings for 2016. I care more about that than a future draft pick. I mean at least you get something for him but it's the worst case IMO.

 

plenty of fish in the sea

[KingKat]

plenty of fish in the sea

 

A bird in the hand.

[Dr. Dinger]

I think I read that Buehrle had four cortisone shots this year just to make it through the season. There was also a lot of talk about Beurhle telling Stroman that he would hold the fort down until he came back, and the team seemed pretty emotionally invested in that whole thing coming to fruition with Buehrle running on fumes at the end of the season, his velocity barely hanging above 80mph, everyone hugging him after his last start like his career was over, and all that jazz.

 

Reading between the lines, I think his shoulder is a physical mess and it's a foregone conclusion that he'll retire. Could be wrong though.

 

I wouldn't even extend a QO to Buehrle, he looked completely done down the stretch. Not to mention, we really need to free up his salary if we are going to make a run at Price or Greinke, which I think we will.

[Laika]

A bird in the hand.

 

He won't be in hand though.

 

Toronto's playoff run is going to do a lot for the team's ability to attract free agents. I think.

[Dr. Dinger]

He won't be in hand though.

 

Toronto's playoff run is going to do a lot for the team's ability to attract free agents. I think.

 

He is sort of in hand though, a QO is a significant deterrent for a lot of potential suitors. It's not nothing, at least.

 

Then again, can Estrada really be expected to hold up for 200 IP? That's not something we can really bank on over a 2-3 year deal.

[gruber92]

plenty of fish in the sea

 

Yeah, free agent SP crop is huge this winter. I'm leaning on not picking up Dickey's option either due to this, regardless if it's "a deal".

[Dr. Dinger]

Yeah, free agent SP crop is huge this winter. I'm leaning on not picking up Dickey's option either due to this, regardless if it's "a deal".

 

You could always pick up his option and trade him. Regardless of the bad taste in our mouths, he is an asset at $12M.

[Farm]

He is sort of in hand though, a QO is a significant deterrent for a lot of potential suitors. It's not nothing, at least.

 

Then again, can Estrada really be expected to hold up for 200 IP? That's not something we can really bank on over a 2-3 year deal.

 

What about a QO and then offer him a Volquez style deal. Or is that too scumbag?

[gruber92]

You could always pick up his option and trade him. Regardless of the bad taste in our mouths, he is an asset at $12M.

 

Why bother taking the chance of being stuck with him? I don't think AA will get much for a 40+ year old knuckle baller with all his personal peeves attached, even at $12mil.

[West Texas Forever]

You could always pick up his option and trade him. Regardless of the bad taste in our mouths, he is an asset at $12M.

 

I think his stock is at an all time low, you wouldn't get much for him, I'd rather they save the money and spend it elsewhere.

[Frenchsoup]

Disagree. Volquez just signed for two years, $16M + a $10M team option, coming off a very similar season.

 

No QO though, that will make a difference.

[BTS]

Dickey is a no-brainer at 12M I think. Probably 200 innings of ~4 ERA ball + the Dickey effect, and the team's only other starter is Stroman.

[Laika]

They'll need Dickey's innings, probably. He is a pretty annoying presence on the roster though. The upside just isn't apparent anymore and his talent seems to balance on the precipice of disaster. Then there's the ever present issues surrounding who is responsible for catching him.

[Frenchsoup]

Dickey is a no-brainer at 12M I think. Probably 200 innings of ~4 ERA ball + the Dickey effect, and the team's only other starter is Stroman.

 

The negatives are the wear and tear on Martin and the possibility of having to roster Thole. He's probably worth it but it's closer then it seems.

[KingKat]

Why bother taking the chance of being stuck with him? I don't think AA will get much for a 40+ year old knuckle baller with all his personal peeves attached, even at $12mil.

 

You wouldn't really have to. If someone wants him, they can trade for him and exercise the option themselves. If no one wants to trade for him before that then it's probably not worth it to exercise the option in case they do later on unless you're comfortable with Dickey at that salary in the first place.

[reedjohnsonfan]

Dickey is a no-brainer at 12M I think. Probably 200 innings of ~4 ERA ball + the Dickey effect, and the team's only other starter is Stroman.

 

That's funny, because after his start to the season everyone wanted him gone from his SSS of not striking anyone out. Guy is as close to 0 injury risk as anyone and a lock for 200 IP, worth every penny! Now the other 3 rotation spots, there's a question they have to answer. Samardzija, some back end guy like Colon for a 1 year deal and Osuna/Sanchez sounds ok.

[Cyborg]

With Dickey on the roster, you don't need to search for a backup C either, because you have Thole to catch his starts to give Martin rest.

[Dr. Dinger]

No QO though, that will make a difference.

 

 

That just gives the Jays more leverage. The Volquez deal is a good benchmark, and a bit added for inflation and good will.

[Frenchsoup]

That just gives the Jays more leverage. The Volquez deal is a good benchmark, and a bit added for inflation and good will.

 

Agreed

[Laika]

With Dickey on the roster, you don't need to search for a backup C either, because you have Thole to catch his starts to give Martin rest.

 

Yuck, Thole. f*** Thole. Get someone else who can actually contribute and handle the knuckleball, even if that means Martin has to catch Dickey like 1/2 the time.

[Frenchsoup]

With Dickey on the roster, you don't need to search for a backup C either, because you have Thole to catch his starts to give Martin rest.

 

I'd prefer a better backup. Especially with Martin getting older and his bad hammy's. I don't think you can project him to catch 120 games in a year anymore.

[Frenchsoup]

Yuck, Thole. f*** Thole. Get someone else who can actually contribute and handle the knuckleball, even if that means Martin has to catch Dickey like 1/2 the time.

 

Avila is interesting to me, especially coming from that massive park.

[Cyborg]

Yuck, Thole. f*** Thole. Get someone else who can actually contribute and handle the knuckleball, even if that means Martin has to catch Dickey like 1/2 the time.

The other options are pretty limited:

 

Catchers

Alex Avila (29)

Chris Iannetta (33)

Dioner Navarro (32)

Jordan Pacheco (30)

Brayan Pena (34)

A.J. Pierzynski (39)

Jarrod Saltalamacchia (31)

Geovany Soto (33)

Matt Wieters (30)

[KingKat]

Yuck, Thole. f*** Thole. Get someone else who can actually contribute and handle the knuckleball, even if that means Martin has to catch Dickey like 1/2 the time.

 

Thole is a perfectly acceptable backup catcher. Wasting a roster spot on him as a third catcher sucks but Thole himself only sucks about the same as your typical backup c.

[Frenchsoup]

Thole is a perfectly acceptable backup catcher. Wasting a roster spot on him as a third catcher sucks but Thole himself only sucks about the same as your typical backup c.

 

He's pretty bad defensively. If Martin goes down your royal screwing yourself on both sides of the ball.

[BTS]

The other options are pretty limited:

 

Catchers

Alex Avila (29)

Chris Iannetta (33)

Dioner Navarro (32)

Jordan Pacheco (30)

Brayan Pena (34)

A.J. Pierzynski (39)

Jarrod Saltalamacchia (31)

Geovany Soto (33)

Matt Wieters (30)

 

Chris Iannetta would be a pretty great backup.