Sanchez Performance To Date

[guylaroche5]

Who should the Jays be replacing Sanchez with?????

 

norris

[Nox]

So apparently -

 

Results = runs against

 

but

 

Results != things that lead to runs against

 

Ok.

[Frenchsoup]

norris

 

I'd probably go Liam Hendricks if we're doing our do diligence.

[43211234]

Might as well delete the forum and start again. There's no coming back from this thread.

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

I have long wondered do stats geeks enjoy the game of baseball or the numbers it produces for them?

[Caper]

He's not. That's how you're wrong.

 

He has been fine in his roll. Again, this where guys who watch a baseball game on an advanced stat line can get it so wrong. He wasn't hit well. But his defence has been great. And with a team that has no problem putting up runs, it's the perfect trade off.

[Candide]

not baiting at all - genuine interest to know more.

 

you guys seem high on Buehrle, but his career numbers suck too versus other 200+ game winners. how/why is he to be perceived different from Sanchez?

[fatcowxlive]

Sounds like you'd be pretty happy as a Phillies fan

Sub-replacement level play isn't acceptable just because a guy is young.

Sub-replacement level pitching should not be classified as "okay" regardless of how old the pitcher in question is. Aaron Sanchez has been garbage this year, and shouldn't even be in the rotation.

 

Guys my post literally said that he's exceeded my personal expectations, I didn't say "Man he's a great part of the rotation and he deserves to be here". My expectations are very low for Sanchez, I thought he was another 2012 Romero. I'm not saying he should be up in the Majors either lol

 

yep

 

Hard not to exceed expectations when your expectations are he won't be able to get out of the 1st inning lol

 

I didn't vote for A but he did exceed my expectations like you said lol

[BTS]

not baiting at all - genuine interest to know more.

 

you guys seem high on Buehrle, but his career numbers suck too versus other 200+ game winners. how/why is he to be perceived different from Sanchez?

 

Mark Buehrle has a 15-year track record of being a reliable above-average major league starter. Aaron Sanchez has sucked since turning pro.

[BTS]

Guys my post literally said that he's exceeded my personal expectations, I didn't say "Man he's a great part of the rotation and he deserves to be here". My expectations are very low for Sanchez, I thought he was another 2012 Romero. I'm not saying he should be up in the Majors either lol

 

 

 

I didn't vote for A but he did exceed my expectations like you said lol

 

Sanchez has been every bit as bad as 2012 Romero. The only difference is a bit of ERA luck over a small sample.

[gruber92]

I have long wondered do stats geeks enjoy the game of baseball or the numbers it produces for them?

 

BTS said he didn't watch one minute of the game Friday night but knows Sanchez pitched like s***.

 

What do you think?

[Atothe]

BTS said he didn't watch one minute of the game Friday night but knows Sanchez pitched like s***.

 

What do you think?

 

Forgive him, the rays have run out of luck in regards to their pitchers' health. He's lashing out

[Daniel Labude]

not baiting at all - genuine interest to know more.

 

you guys seem high on Buehrle, but his career numbers suck too versus other 200+ game winners. how/why is he to be perceived different from Sanchez?

 

Great post...I believe Sanchez is better than Buehrle, especially this year. Buehrle has hit a giant wall in his career.

[Boxcar]

Jesus Christ

[Laika]

mods, lock this thread

[L54]

Great bathroom read, thanks guys.

[Nox]

mods, lock this thread

 

It's actually really embarrassing.

[Jimcanuck]

Sanchez has been every bit as bad as 2012 Romero. The only difference is a bit of ERA luck over a small sample.

 

Not really, hitters were teeing up on 2012 Romero in addition to his wildness. Hitters aren't teeing up on Sanchez.

[Jimcanuck]

mods, lock this thread

 

i'm enjoying the thread... the majority opinion is with me.

 

if you don't like it, go elsewhere.

[Olerud363]

His xFIP is almost 5. You can argue that he has a talent for inducing weak contact. You might be right. Maybe you project something like a 0.3 difference between his ERA and DIPS (which is higher than you would ever project). His current true talent is still like 4.6 in that extremely generous case. You can't run a 4.6 ERA guy out there every 5th day.

 

That sounds about right. However it is possible his peripherals will get better. 22 years old, throws hard, good ground ball rate.

 

It would of been interesting to word the poll slightly differently.

 

1. His peripherals will get better and his ERA will stay the same.

2. His peripherals will stay the same and his ERA will stay the same.

3. His peripherals will stay the same and his ERA will explode.

 

At least that show us if anyone actually believes 2.

[Laika]

i'm enjoying the thread... the majority opinion is with me.

 

if you don't like it, go elsewhere.

 

Ok, we can lock you in with the thread. Should solve a lot of issues.

[Captain Adama]

i'm enjoying the thread... the majority opinion is with me.

 

if you don't like it, go elsewhere.

 

False.

 

25 people agree with you.

 

31 people don't.

 

#howtoliewithstatistsics

[Olerud363]

Not really, hitters were teeing up on 2012 Romero in addition to his wildness. Hitters aren't teeing up on Sanchez.

 

Aaron Sanchez current homeruns/9 is worse than Romero 2012... hr/9 is a pretty good back of the napkin for "teeing up".

[Olerud363]

i'm enjoying the thread... the majority opinion is with me.

 

if you don't like it, go elsewhere.

 

Why this thread should be locked is beyond me. It is an interesting question.

 

It would be interesting to compile 20-40 pitchers similar to Sanchez. Divide them into two clusters using age, fast ball speed, and ground ball rate.

 

Do pitchers with Sanchez' profile (younger, throw harder, high ground ball rate) improve more than we'd expect from the stas??

[Laika]

Why this thread should be locked is beyond me. It is an interesting question.

 

It's really not though. People are just layering a bunch of ad hoc hypotheses on top of some small sample ERA luck.

[Olerud363]

It's really not though. People are just layering a bunch of ad hoc hypotheses on top of some small sample ERA luck.

 

Really?? If Sanchez was a 24 year old 10th round college draft pick, threw 91, had an average ground ball rate this thread wouldn't even exist. Everyone would be waiting for the bubble to burst.

 

The guys that believe in Sanchez see his age, pedigree, his fastball speed, and his ground ball rate... and assume that he will improve. So I'm curious if there is anything to that.

[Nox]

pedigree

 

His entire pedigree is based around scouting, something you've blasted many times on here.

 

It's not an interesting question. ZIPs uses historical comps based on things like you described earlier (rates/age/velo) and it's the projection system that hates him the most (4.97 true talent FIP).

[Macsattack]

That sounds about right. However it is possible his peripherals will get better. 22 years old, throws hard, good ground ball rate.

 

It would of been interesting to word the poll slightly differently.

 

1. His peripherals will get better and his ERA will stay the same.

2. His peripherals will stay the same and his ERA will stay the same.

3. His peripherals will stay the same and his ERA will explode.

 

At least that show us if anyone actually believes 2.

 

This directed at BTS. In the 2014 season there were 32 AL Starters with enough innings to qualify for the ERA title that had a sub 4.50 ERA. Not sure what you expect out of a #5 starter but anything in the 4.50-5.00 range and giving 5-6 innings a start is what a serviceable 5th starter is. If that comes with a guy that has upside to do better that's how good ball clubs are built.

[Nox]

This directed at BTS. In the 2014 season there were 32 AL Starters with enough innings to qualify for the ERA title that had a sub 4.50 ERA. Not sure what you expect out of a #5 starter but anything in the 4.50-5.00 range and giving 5-6 innings a start is what a serviceable 5th starter is. If that comes with a guy that has upside to do better that's how good ball clubs are built.

 

That's a really dumb way to look at it.

 

A good portion of the back of the rotation innings come from guys that don't qualify for the ERA title.

 

Aaron Sanchez has performed before replacement level and projects to perform at replacement level going forward. That's all that matters.

[Orgfiller]

He said 'dumb' guys. That means it's serious.