Sanchez Performance To Date

[Orgfiller]

doesn't SSS apply

It applies for BB/9 but obviously doesn't apply to ERA. Duh

[GD]

doesn't SSS apply

 

It's supported by like every other sample he has

 

edit: also BB/9 stabilizes quicker than your magical ERA does

[GD]

It applies for BB/9 but obviously doesn't apply to ERA. Duh

 

http://i.ytimg.com/vi/TumDxvw4gpM/hqdefault.jpg

[Jimcanuck]

It's supported by like every other sample he has

 

edit: also BB/9 stabilizes quicker than your magical ERA does

 

i've never referred to ERA

[Nafro]

i've never referred to ERA

 

Anybody who knows anything about advanced statistics...knows that Earned Run Average is the most important pitcher stat. It is the best example of how "effective" a pitcher is. Well right after pitcher wins.

 

I find myself starting to really look forward to Sanchez's next start. Just for the reaction it will create,either way, on these boards.

[Mikeleelop]

I'd probably go Liam Hendricks if we're doing our do diligence.

 

Based on his reliever stats ?

[BTS]

i've never referred to ERA

 

We all know that if his ERA was in the vicinity of his xFIP this thread wouldn't exist. And he'd be in AAA.

[Olerud363]

ok but that doesn't change that he's walking 7 guys per 9 innings without anything resembling strikeout potential

 

Absolutely. The only thing I claimed it here is that it is an interesting thread. In fact I learned how to use the fangraphs filters because of this thread... thanks for that, never tried them out before.

[GD]

Based on his reliever stats ?

 

Who on earth would stick someone in the rotation based off of a small sample of excellence out of the bullpen?

 

Oh, wait. Right.

[Deadpool]

I don't care about draft position and height but this is what fangraphs is for

 

Every active starter that averages at least 92 on the fastball, and has a GB% of at least 50:

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=0&type=c,216,8,13,-1,120,121,40,43,44,48,51,-1,6,118,119,122,-1,76,113,-1,59&season=2015&month=0&season1=2002&ind=0&team=0&rost=1&age=14,51&filter=27130&players=0&sort=19,d

 

There are like 25-30 ACTIVE guys like him and he's like the 4th worst.

 

I'm really sad that I lost my place in your sig... I'll have to come up with something good to top this!

[BTS]

who on earth would stick someone in the rotation based off of a small sample of excellence out of the bullpen?

 

Oh, wait. Right.

 

ice burn

[Jimcanuck]

We all know that if his ERA was in the vicinity of his xFIP this thread wouldn't exist. And he'd be in AAA.

 

Perhaps, we don't know how much rope he has. And he'd go to the BP, not AAA.

 

It's only 6 games, there's volatility in the stats. A few more games are needed to get a true barometer of his current value as a MLB starter.

[GD]

I'm really sad that I lost my place in your sig... I'll have to come up with something good to top this!

 

I don't think there is any topping this

[Orgfiller]

I don't think there is any topping this

 

Read mine bro. Even though "a ton of atom balls" is an excellent candidate.

[GD]

#LoveThisBoard

[King]

Mine is quite the statement too

 

Although not sure if it shows up when I post from my phone

[GD]

Mine is quite the statement too

 

Although not sure if it shows up when I post from my phone

 

it doesn't

 

the JPA one?

[Spanky99]

lulz

[Spanky99]

Sigs R Dumn!

[Nox]

Overfitting is choosing small ranges in the middle of the distribution..

 

That is not what overfitting data means.

 

You propose more independent variables than resulting data points (post filter). That's just silly.

[BTS]

I wish the dumnass who had my "Castro might be good some day, but isn't right now" post in his sig didn't get banned. I liked reading the forum and seeing a wise post quoted.

[Nox]

It's only 6 games, there's volatility in the stats.

 

Oh? You don't say.

 

You know what does the best job of interpreting the natural variance in the recorded outcomes? The tools that say Sanchez is as bad at pitching as you are at posting.

[King]

it doesn't

 

the JPA one?

 

Yep

[GD]

unleash the Nox

[Olerud363]

That is not what overfitting data means.

 

You propose more independent variables than resulting data points (post filter). That's just silly.

 

If I proposed 12 independent variables and created a model, and made a prediction using only 10 data points for my training set that would be overfitting.

 

Proposing 5 different variables with ranges was silly, more cherry picking then overfitting, (I wasn't trying to make a prediction). I should of thought more carefully. Using tight ranges I could get as small a group as I wanted only using 1 variable (say fastball speed 90-90.01)

 

My hypothesis was that Sanchez was an outlier. I'm no longer convinced he's an "outlier" so to say. He near the edge of the 3D distribution of age, ground ball rate, and fastball speed. So are a lot of other guys. It's a hypershpere. RA Dickey and Mark Buerhle are on the edge somewhere.

 

I don't know if that is meaningful or not, Are predictions for guys on the edge of the cluster as accurate as for guys in the middle of the cluster??

 

I also realize the more variables I use the more guys there will be on the edge... 1D there will be only be 2 guys on the edges, in 2D space more, and so on, until, as you indicate, you can get everybody on the edges if you use enough variables.

[JaysFan75]

IMHO, barring injury, for the rest of the season Sanchez will do the following:

 

BB/9 < 5

HR/9 <1

BABIP < Average

WAR > 1

 

Overall, he has pitched poorly, but he has had flashes that lead me to believe he is close to figuring some things out. To date he has not cost the team in wins and losses, and until he does, I think you give him a chance to iron things out.

 

Edit: I voted "As expected, poor control, replacement level" regarding his performance to date.

[Olerud363]

IMHO, barring injury, for the rest of the season Sanchez will do the following:

 

BB/9 < 5

HR/9 <1

BABIP < Average

WAR > 1

 

Overall, he has pitched poorly, but he has had flashes that lead me to believe he is close to figuring some things out. To date he has not cost the team in wins and losses, and until he does, I think you give him a chance to iron things out.

 

Edit: I voted "As expected, poor control, replacement level" regarding his performance to date.

 

Jays are 3-3 in his starts... better pitcher with same run support and defense would be 4-2... Prime Pedro Martinez might be 5-1... Rickey Romero 2015 version might be 0-6.

 

I could go on and on but the WAR basically does that for me. His WAR is 0.0. That means you could find a bunch guys who given the same defense and run support would do about the same.

 

He could get better.

[JaysFan75]

Jays are 3-3 in his starts... better pitcher with same run support and defense would be 4-2... Prime Pedro Martinez might be 5-1... Rickey Romero 2015 version might be 0-6.

 

I could go on and on but the WAR basically does that for me. His WAR is 0.0. That means you could find a bunch guys who given the same defense and run support would do about the same.

 

He could get better.

 

He has given up less than 4 runs per 9. A replacement level guy won't give you that with the defense the jays have put up to date. WAR is based on predictive stats and not actual results in terms of wins and losses. If he continues to pitch as he has, he will most likely cost us in wins and losses, but he hasn't to date.

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

Stat Geeks and Thier numbers always negative, soooo sad !

 

Physco Killers in Training!

[Olerud363]

He has given up less than 4 runs per 9. A replacement level guy won't give you that with the defense the jays have put up to date. WAR is based on predictive stats and not actual results in terms of wins and losses. If he continues to pitch as he has, he will most likely cost us in wins and losses, but he hasn't to date.

 

There are only a finite number of states for 6 games. He is 3-3... he can't be 2.7-3.3, he cost us in a probabilistic sense.

 

If someone better than Sanchez was pitching those games there is a 50% chance we'd still be 3-3 in them, but a 30% chance we'd be 4-2, and maybe a 20% chance we'd be 2-4. I don't know what the numbers are exactly. There not exactly like that, of course... there is also a chance we'd be 0-6, 1-5... so on.

 

Say everything else is the same... a better guy might of won the April 27th Boston game.