Candide

horrendous deal. if legit, thank God that didn't go through...

what a disgrace! this is why this team won't come close to sniffing the playoffs this season. You let a good ol' All-Star Canadian boy go for NOTHING and you spend all your time try to fill up the roster with hot headed Cubins! I'm telling you, if the Jays want to contend this year, they need to trade everything they can for Joey Votto, starting with the three cubins and that short black pitcher! sincerely, don cherry

they made a mistake and paid for it with their lives - what more do you want? stupid, yes. tragic, yes. avoidable, sadly yes. doesn't make the guy a scumbag though.

is it fair to assume that Bautista, in an injury riddled season at 36, will continue to drop off the face of the earth while a soon to be 40 year old Carlos Beltran somehow won't?

I guess my question is, is it worth it though? If the AL East going to become that much tougher next season - getting 89 wins against the Red Sox, Yankees, Indians, and Tigers will become more difficult next season than what we saw this. Even with Jose/EE re-signed and Dickey off the books, I think the Jays will need to spend more to upgrade via the FA class to replicate a WC appearance in 2017, but this is just my opinion. I'd be happy with this avenue if the Jays retain Jose/EE or replace them with fair value via FA AND add more talent to compete. Otherwise, if the Jays lose Bautista and EE, they'll get comp picks. I'm almost inclined to then take those picks and explore what else what I could get for Martin and Tulowitzki this winter while they still have some value. Both will become close to untradeable in Winter 2017 and beyond. Then after going this far, I'd also see what I could get for Donaldson, which would probably be a king's ransom. Fans will be pissed off losing Jose/EE anyway, so makes no difference if they get equal or better value for Martin, Tulowitzki, and Donaldson. Then keep the pitching intact until the trade deadline next year and look to deal guys like Cecil, Estrada, and Happ, especially if SRF is ready while keeping Liriano as a starter. Let guys like Stroman, Sanchez, Travis continue to develop mixed with a few veterans and have a good core of players in the mid-to-late 20s to compete in 2019 or 2020.

if you're referring to me, I'm familiar with the concept of WAR. I'm just throwing ideas around in terms of who could replace EE/Jose. Of course if you replace them with players, you recoup the WAR. My point is that you don't know who they might be replaced with. If EE/Jose and their 6 WAR leave because of their contractual demands and you fill them with 2 regular, positional players with the same cumulative WAR while saving $10 million, obviously you go for it. My point is that with the current market, I don't see this happening. You could say, sign Reddick, Morrales, and Gordon and a few utility bats to yield the same production in 2016. I don't see how that would be significantly cheaper what it might take to retain EE/Jose. When factoring in the fact that 1) there are other declining assets in Tulowitzki and Martin, any FA upgrades would likely have to be predicated on the fact there would have to be a net gain to EE/Jose's production this season; and 2) the organic improvement of Boston/New York next season with the budget to sign players (and possibly either outbid Toronto and/or drive up the asking price of the said players in Reddick, Morrales, Gordon, etc. to sign in Toronto), the $/WAR challenge for Shartkins becomes more challenging this offseason. Fundamentally, I see the issue as delay the inevitable tear-down by 1 or 2 seasons to re-up Jose/EE and contend or tear down this offseason. I'm fine with either option, but I'm not optimistic that the Jays should try to retool via replacing Jose/EE since I don't see how they will get a more economical return with this winter's crop of FAs. I see trading for Votto or any other positional player at fair exchange to be a bad option too seeing as how the Jays are just starting to replenish their system; justification of having the comp picks offset this loss may have some merit, but does result in delaying the rebuilding window further by a few years. The structural issue with this current squad starting 2017 onwards is that there are a bunch of mid-30s contributors and solid 21-25 year olds, but nothing in between. That's why I'm skeptical of how effective a retool would be given the roster's age dichotomy. p.s. let's not get too personal here with the accusations and assumptions. I'm enjoying the discussion and keen to read your opinions!

Why do you think Josh Reddick would come cheap? How cheap are we talking about here? He put up an offensive WAR of 3.5-4 in pitcher-friendly parks, is 29 years of age, and could possibly be overvalued in a market where there isn't much hitting to go around. He can't hit left handed pitching but his historical numbers weren't as atrocious as they were this season.

no, i mean more so with the fact that I think re-signing Jose/EE alone this team will likely win 83-85 games next season without upgrades in other areas (i.e. left field, utility, bullpen, possibly a #4-5 starter) because I think Happ over-performed and Tulo/Martin will likely decline. re-signing Jose/EE will yield collective diminishing returns starting as early as next season, but losing both will almost certainly guarantee a non-playoff finish, especially as the Red Sox and Yankees have young talent that is getting better - and they have flexibility in their budget. I'm not advocating re-signing Jose and/or EE per se, I'm simply acknowledging that not re-signing them will almost certainly guarantee missing the playoffs unless equal talent is acquired through trade (I don't see any FA options this offseason).

really? Jose/EE/Saunders had a collective WAR of about 8 this year. Jose had an injury-riddled year, offset by Saunders overachieving and EE likely to repeat his production next year, especially if he becomes the full-time 1B. Add a slightly better season from Stroman and Travis and deduct those gains from a declining Tulo and Martin, plus the likelihood that Happ overachieved this year, and I still think this team wins roughly 70 games next year without any upgrades and losing Jose/EE.

agreed. it's not about the player, it's about winning. as attached people are to EE/Jose, no one will care if this team is back in the playoffs next year. issue is that without those two guys, the Jays will probably win 75 games max next season. no FA signing or trades (without depleting the farm) will get this team back to the playoffs next season. most non hardcore fans will be outraged and it'll show in the attendance and TV ratings. i'm looking at my facebook feed with friends posting about the Jays. out of the 100 or so posters, i'd say that about 7 or 8 of them will actually follow this team if they finish 4th or 5th in the standings next season.

i read an ESPN simulation/article somewhere of how teams would perform if they kept their original players. one of the things that AA did well was he was able to get premium talent for below market-value. guys like Bautista, EE, Donaldson, Travis. the problem is that a lot of this was evened out by trades that didn't exactly work out (i.e. Marlins, Dickey, Price, etc.). And he did this with great farm players. I don't get the sense that Shartkins operate in this fashion and prefer to get undervalued assets through FA while developing home grown talent. This takes much longer to develop but is arguably more sustainable. I'd say that if EE/Jose are gone, they need to try to flip Martin, Tulo, and perhaps even Donaldson for as many assets as possible. Unless I'm missing something, there's no way a retool is possible. I just don't see how they're going to replace 60+ HRs, 150-200 RBIs, or 5-8 WAR on the FA market this summer. And any trades for Puig or Votto is counterproductive as that would cost a boatload of assets without much more than what Jose/EE could offer for the next couple of seasons.

I think there are two main things that I take away from this. Re-sign EE and Bautista, keeps the window open for 2 years possibly (but no guarantee as Boston and New York have very good young talent with extra cash to spend). After that, expected decline with a lot of unmovable salary. Let EE and Bautista walk, possibly Tulo, Donaldson, and Martin within the next 1-2 seasons. Recoup the comp picks and haul from trades to build a sustainable winning team by 2019 or 2020. Between 2017 and 2019, there will be massive outrage even if I'm inclined to believe that this is best mid-to-long term vision for the team. Will Shartkins and Rogers be able to withstand the fan outrage? I don't think Shartkins have a problem with it and could probably use Gibby as a scapegoat for a year to buy time; but if EE/Jose are gone this winter and this team wins 70 games next season, I except fan attendance to drop to the mid-tier of the AL pack by the all-star break. My facebook feed is going nuts for the Jays right now...like they were with the Raptors two years ago and last spring. Even without the aspect of seasonality, I think once the Leafs start better this year and perhaps even make the playoffs in 2017-2018, people will redirect their focus and energies there. I would even venture to say the buzz this winter will be around the Leafs even if the Raptors win the Atlantic division again, and people will hop on the Raptors bandwagon after the Leafs season is over - assuming that the Raptors make the 2nd round in the playoffs. No idea how much Rogers is valuing the attendance and ratings for the Jays these past couple of years. From a revenue and brand perspective, it's certainly not insignificant...

simple question - no hard salary cap in baseball. assume that Rogers forks over the dough to keep EE and Jose to 4 year deals. What is this current roster's contending window? I'm going to go with 2-4 years. EE/Jose/Tulo/Martin age by a year, but Donaldson is still in his peak. Travis, Sanchez, Osuna, and Stroman get one more year under their belt. Replenish the bullpen and find a few utility bats to replace Saunders. Free up a bit of cash from Dickey and retool. Boston and New York will become tougher opponents next season, Tampa is still several years away from being a threat, and Baltimore likely will repeat performance next season (possibly slight regression). Still good enough to challenge for a WC, which as we've seen this season, is enough as post-season is a completely different ballgame. Thoughts? or should the Jays blow it up and try to free themselves of potential albatross deals come 2018 or 2019 (i.e. Martin, Tulo, EE, Bautista)

I agree 100%. my friend's analogy was, would you rather be a fan of the Arizona Diamondbacks from 1998 - 2006 or the LA Dodgers from 2008 - 2016. My point was that, if you're asking me at the starting point of those two 8-year windows, I'd pick the LA Dodgers 10 times out of 10 because there's the perennial promise of winning the World Series because there's the possibility of multiple championships (Cardinals, Red Sox, Giants, etc.). Nobody in their right mind would choose the Diamondbacks - it's only if you're looking at things in hindsight (as in, the Dodgers don't win this year) would you obviously pick the Diamondbacks, but that's not the scope of the question.

yup. for commodities such as baseball gear in the UK, they'll always adjust the prices upwards so it's still difficult to capitalize on the FX rates. i'm a lefty and wanted a right-handed Rawlings outfield glove. saw it for something like $80 in amazon.com, but the cheapest price via amazon.co.uk was something like £120. so it doesn't pay out either way. everything else though, it's really favorable for foreigners in the UK. taking a 5 day trip with my gf to Paris next week and 2 week christmas break around europe. booked 4 and 5 stars for everything way back in Jan 2016 when it was about 1.4 EUR to 1. been eating instant noodles every day now that it's 1.13 to 1. meanwhile, prices within London continue to rise.

they're synonymous, post June 23rd, 2016.

passed by really quickly but didn't go in. looks decent - good layout from what it seems. didn't bother though just because anything baseball related in the UK seems to be overpriced and would rather just get friends to mule stuff over when they pass through london

that was exactly my point. my buddy (Jays fan) went with #2. I told him he either sucks at basic probability or is just saying that but couldn't actually endure the torture of 1,134 meaningless games. If we were Cubs fans though? Would probably go with #1 and then follow the Blackhawks and Bulls.

yes, much, much better choice than Maple Leaf

here's a random hypothetical that I had with a friend yesterday. would you guys rather have the Jays, over the course of the next 8 seasons: 1) win the division/wild card annually but have only a 25% chance of winning the World Series in any given season 2) win the world series once within the 8 seasons, but play sub .500 ball for the remaining 7 seasons?

I'm in London - near Farringdon. The Maple Leaf on Maiden Lane should have it - unless there's some EPL game on tonight. I remember having to beg them to change the screens to show Raptors-Nets game 7 instead of some football match once. Not sure if I'll watch at home tonight or go there

i miss Tim Johnson too. i felt like if he were the Jays manager last year, they would have won the world series. don't see what the big deal is about that one white lie about Vietnam. i tell my friends and coworkers inspirational stories from my days in Nam, and they all seem to draw helpful life lessons from it.

the hotness of a guy is not just about looks, but good sense of humor, confidence, and personality as well. so Munenori Kawasaki above the waist. Ben Revere below the waist.

he would have made a beautiful woman, like Amelie Mauresmo

i'd offer Shark $133M over 7 just to show the fans that Shark + Happ for $31M/season = moar wins than having just Price.