Sanchez Performance To Date

[BTS]

This directed at BTS. In the 2014 season there were 32 AL Starters with enough innings to qualify for the ERA title that had a sub 4.50 ERA. Not sure what you expect out of a #5 starter but anything in the 4.50-5.00 range and giving 5-6 innings a start is what a serviceable 5th starter is. If that comes with a guy that has upside to do better that's how good ball clubs are built.

 

No. A lot of teams have replacement-level pitchers at the back of their rotation at various points in the year. That doesn't mean good teams embrace replacement-level production and run with it. That isn't how you win. The goal is to not be replacement-level anywhere. You don't just accept a terrible arm because 'eh, he's the 5th starter'.

[Olerud363]

His entire pedigree is based around scouting, something you've blasted many times on here.

 

It's not an interesting question. ZIPs uses historical comps based on things like you described earlier (rates/age/velo) and it's the projection system that hates him the most (4.97 true talent FIP).

 

But is that population really comparable to Sanchez?? How many 22 year olds are in the majors already and throw 98 with a 60% ground ball rate. I personally don't know.

 

Does zips work for outliers?? Is Sanchez an outlier??

 

And I've blasted super-scouts... those unique individuals who can see what other trained scouts cannot.

 

If lots of scouts in the industry like Aaron Sanchez... then there might be something to that. I don't know.

 

If "the Blue Jay's super scouts" like Aaron Sanchez while the rest of the industry does not... then I'd say that's bull s***.

[Nox]

But is that population really comparable to Sanchez?? How many 22 year olds are in the majors already and throw 98 with a 60% ground ball rate. I personally don't know.

 

Does zips work for outliers?? Is Sanchez an outlier??

 

And I've blasted super-scouts... those unique individuals who can see what other trained scouts cannot.

 

If lots of scouts in the industry like Aaron Sanchez... then there might be something to that. I don't know.

 

If "the Blue Jay's super scouts" like Aaron Sanchez while the rest of the industry does not... then I'd say that's bull s***.

 

Sanchez doesn't throw 98. He throws 94. Lots of guys throw 94. Also, we should keep in mind that his velocity has peaked and will start to slowly decline from now on. That's how that aging curve works.

 

We have no reason to think Aaron Sanchez is any sort of outlier.

 

GB rate, velo, movement....it's all just data that gets fed into a projection machine. And that projection machine is going to do a better job over the long run than our feeble minds.

[Laika]

Is Sanchez an outlier??

 

No.

 

Plenty of pitchers have existed at his age. Plenty of pitchers sit ~94. Plenty of pitchers get groundballs. Plenty of pitchers have s*** command.

 

Only Blue Jays fans who don't really watch other teams think that Sanchez is some f***ing unicorn talent.

[Orgfiller]

If anyone wants a lazy comp for Sanchez just look at Mike Foltynewicz. Young, throws fast and walks a lot of hitters. Only difference is that he gets strikeouts with greater frequency and is more flyball oriented.

[BTS]

If anyone wants a lazy comp for Sanchez just look at Mike Foltynewicz. Young, throws fast and walks a lot of hitters. Only difference is that he gets strikeouts with greater consistency and is more flyball oriented.

 

Or Jarred Cosart with no control.

[Orgfiller]

Or Jarred Cosart with no control.

 

Pretty much. But Jarred Cosart wouldn't be in the majors if he walked 6+ per 9.

[Olerud363]

Sanchez doesn't throw 98. He throws 94. Lots of guys throw 94. Also, we should keep in mind that his velocity has peaked and will start to slowly decline from now on. That's how that aging curve works.

 

We have no reason to think Aaron Sanchez is any sort of outlier.

 

GB rate, velo, movement....it's all just data that gets fed into a projection machine. And that projection machine is going to do a better job over the long run than our feeble minds.

 

Good point. Mentally I still think of him throwing 98... but that was out of the bullpen. My feeble mind sees Roy Halladay and Chris Carpenter. Tall, high school drafted pitchers, good scouting reports, horrible k/bb in minors and first year or two, then glory.

 

a) even in that scenario he doesn't help until a couple years down the road.

my feeble mind doesn't see all the other guys who fit the same profile but went nowhere...

[Spanky99]

Ok, we can lock you in with the thread. Should solve a lot of issues.

 

lol

[Orgfiller]

Ugh, here we go with the loosely applied Halladay comps because he was bad that one time for a few months.

[Olerud363]

No.

 

Plenty of pitchers have existed at his age. Plenty of pitchers sit ~94. Plenty of pitchers get groundballs. Plenty of pitchers have s*** command.

 

Only Blue Jays fans who don't really watch other teams think that Sanchez is some f***ing unicorn talent.

 

That's a vague answer. How many current starting pitchers are between the ages of 21 and 23, sit at 92-96, have a ground ball rate between 50-70 and were drafted in the 1st or 2nd round?? edit are also between 6'2" amd 6'6"??

[Olerud363]

Ugh, here we go with the loosely applied Halladay comps because he was bad that one time for a few months.

 

Halladay was bad until 2001. His minor league number are very comparable to Sanchez's. So are Carpenters.

[BlueJayWay]

Aaron Sanchez is intriguing to me and I wish to subscribe to his newsletter.

[L54]

Why do people think draft position has anything to do with projections?

[Boxcar]

i'm enjoying the thread... the majority opinion is with me.

 

if you don't like it, go elsewhere.

 

Lol the majority argument. The "majority" make awful decisions regularly.

[GD]

That's a vague answer. How many current starting pitchers are between the ages of 21 and 23, sit at 92-96, have a ground ball rate between 50-70 and were drafted in the 1st or 2nd round?? edit are also between 6'2" amd 6'6"??

 

I don't care about draft position and height but this is what fangraphs is for

 

Every active starter that averages at least 92 on the fastball, and has a GB% of at least 50:

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=0&type=c,216,8,13,-1,120,121,40,43,44,48,51,-1,6,118,119,122,-1,76,113,-1,59&season=2015&month=0&season1=2002&ind=0&team=0&rost=1&age=14,51&filter=27130&players=0&sort=19,d

 

There are like 25-30 ACTIVE guys like him and he's like the 4th worst.

[Laika]

That's a vague answer. How many current starting pitchers are between the ages of 21 and 23, sit at 92-96, have a ground ball rate between 50-70 and were drafted in the 1st or 2nd round?? edit are also between 6'2" amd 6'6"??

 

Give me five criteria and I could probably make any pitcher in baseball unique...

[Nox]

Give me five criteria and I could probably make any pitcher in baseball unique...

 

"I don't often fit my data but when I do I overfit the s*** out of it."

[Boxcar]

"I don't often fit my data but when I do I overfit the s*** out of it."

 

You know, in a way I do love these threads because it brings out Nox. Also, though infuriating, these topics are entertaining.

[Macsattack]

That's a really dumb way to look at it.

 

A good portion of the back of the rotation innings come from guys that don't qualify for the ERA title.

 

Aaron Sanchez has performed before replacement level and projects to perform at replacement level going forward. That's all that matters.

 

Thanks I hadn't been insulted yet today. Now that we're moving on from that it takes 27 starts of 6 innings to qualify for the ERA title which isn't that big of task. That's about 40% of starters in the League that fit the 162 innings and 4.50 or less ERA. That's without carving up the list for things like Home park impact on ERA for the guys pitching in the AL west. The top teams win in a couple of ways 1. Having top shelf talent at the front end of the rotation that are well over .500 W/L records and 2. having the back end of the rotation give you innings and be competitive. The jays bigger problem is on the front end of the rotation.

[Boxcar]

The jays bigger problem is on the front end of the rotation.

 

This logic is just painful to read.

[Macsattack]

This logic is just painful to read.

 

Elaborate how you see a Baseball team be a winner

[Boxcar]

Elaborate how you see a Baseball team be a winner

 

The problem with the Jays is that the pitching is s*****, the defense is mostly s*****, the bench is s***** and there's no depth. It's not a case of improving the "front end" of the rotation. It's a case of improving anywhere you can. Currently, Sanchez occupies a spot because the FO is extremely stubborn and seems to refuse to recognize his shortcomings.

[Macsattack]

This logic is just painful to read.

Because I always looked at having some top of the rotation talent is a little bit important in the playoffs

[Olerud363]

I don't care about draft position and height but this is what fangraphs is for

 

Every active starter that averages at least 92 on the fastball, and has a GB% of at least 50:

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=0&type=c,216,8,13,-1,120,121,40,43,44,48,51,-1,6,118,119,122,-1,76,113,-1,59&season=2015&month=0&season1=2002&ind=0&team=0&rost=1&age=14,51&filter=27130&players=0&sort=19,d

 

There are like 25-30 ACTIVE guys like him and he's like the 4th worst.

 

You also need to filter age... 21-23 that eliminates some guys

 

If you fiddle with the settings you can easily get a group that is Aaron Sanchez and Felix Hernandez. Players who averaged 94 on the fastball and had a 55% or higher ground ball rate between 21 and 23??

 

There's a bit of ******** there. Hernandez pitched like 600 innings and Sanchez 50.

 

If you raise the bar a bit (94 mph, 55% gbr) you have hardly anyone. Raise it a bit more (95 mph, 60% gbr) you have no one.

 

It seems to me Sanchez is on to the far end of distribution.

[GD]

"I don't often fit my data but when I do I overfit the s*** out of it."

 

bump for Olerud

[Olerud363]

"I don't often fit my data but when I do I overfit the s*** out of it."

 

If I was looking for pitchers with fastballs between 89 and 91, age 27-28, groundball rate 40-43, drafted between the 5th and 7th round, between 6'1 and 6'3, your point would be valid.

[Olerud363]

bump for Olerud

 

Ground ball rate > .55, age < 24, fb speed >92, your down to 11 in 15 seasons of data.

 

Overfitting is choosing small ranges in the middle of the distribution. All I am saying is Sanchez is near the edge of the distribution if we use age, fastball speed, and ground ball rate.

[GD]

ok but that doesn't change that he's walking 7 guys per 9 innings without anything resembling strikeout potential

[Jimcanuck]

ok but that doesn't change that he's walking 7 guys per 9 innings without anything resembling strikeout potential

 

doesn't SSS apply