Can Ryan Goins stick?

[theblujay]

No f***ing kidding, nobody's questioning his defense. The question with Goins is if his bat can play decent enough to hit in the MLB. It's not looking good right now.

 

Well that's good to know, because about 15 pages of this thread is a debate about his defense.

[GD]

Well that's good to know, because about 15 pages of this thread is a debate about his defense.

 

There's a difference between denying what happened and projecting what will happen

 

Has Goins been excellent? Yes

 

Will Goins continue to be excellent? We don't know, and with the other information we have available, the risk most likely outweighs the reward

[kgm1]

I have 2 sections of Jerseys, one for minor league scrubs and one for good MLB Players. Kalfus and Goins won't be near each other

 

Better add Pillars name to that list or are you one who buys into that

[GD]

^you actually have that saved don't you

 

and you left off Rauch and Dotel and Eveland now that I think about it

[gruber92]

No f***ing kidding, nobody's questioning his defense. The question with Goins is if his bat can play decent enough to hit in the MLB. It's not looking good right now.

 

No you didn't..

[gruber92]

Didn't what? It's pretty apparent that he isn't a bad defensive player. His offense is what's his question mark.

 

It didn't seem apparent to you last week.

[Olerud363]

No f***ing kidding, nobody's questioning his defense. The question with Goins is if his bat can play decent enough to hit in the MLB. It's not looking good right now.

 

As I said about Sierra... minor league numbers just don't compute. Could surprise... I would say more of a chance for him to surprise then Sierra.

[flafson]

Please, give him time.

[Laika]

Bat might be even worse than expected.

Defense has looked very good.

 

+1 for the smart people who said that he could totally be a bench player if he could actually pick it, but that it would be egregiously stupid to give him a chance to start at 2B in 2014.

[DuckDuckGose]

It's still 60AB's. The people championing SSS and regression shouldn't act as if this is a definitive set of data because it confirms their hypotheses.

[Laika]

It's still 60AB's. The people championing SSS and regression shouldn't act as if this is a definitive set of data because it confirms their hypotheses.

 

That's a valid point if we have no idea what kind of player he is, but we do have a pretty good idea that he can't hit much at all. The burden of proof is completely on the people who think he can hit.

[DuckDuckGose]

Combined with his below average AAA bat, I think we have a good idea that his bat sucks. His defence has been stellar though. He's tied with Rasmus for 9 DRS as the best Blue Jay.

 

Sure we can say his bat is still highly likely to stink and that the stats are beginning to regress. Those are reasonable statements. It's still foolish to hold a 40 or 60AB sample as proof of anything only when it is convenient to your viewpoint. It's just funny that the people who were all over posters for a SSS used a the exact same sample (+20-35 ABs depending when you jumped on board) SSS the second it was convenient for them to.

[DuckDuckGose]

That's a valid point if we have no idea what kind of player he is, but we do have a pretty good idea that he can't hit much at all. The burden of proof is completely on the people who think he can hit.

 

The burden of proof is on the player and his ability to perform over a large sample. 60 ABs is 60 ABs regardless of past statistical precedent. I'm sure you can find a 60 AB stretch where Barry Bonds or Hank Aaron were pedestrian.

[DuckDuckGose]

The difference being that his results have regressed to his peripherals and projections over those 62 PAs. Of course none of that has stabilized yet, but it's (slowly) getting there!

 

Time to start a Ryan Goins regression to the mean thread?

[Laika]

The burden of proof is on the player and his ability to perform over a large sample. 60 ABs is 60 ABs regardless of past statistical precedent. I'm sure you can find a 60 AB stretch where Barry Bonds or Hank Aaron were pedestrian.

 

That's a funny, confounding way to frame a pretty simple question.

 

Straightforward question: Can Ryan Goins hit in the big leagues?

 

Logical stance: No. He wasn't even a league average hitter in AAA, at 25 years old!

Illogical stance: Yes. I believe in the Goins.

 

60 AB doesn't prove that Goins can't hit, but every day where Ryan Goins struggles to hit big league pitching is still an affirmation of the logical stance in some respect. We already know that he very probably can't hit at all. The burden of proof here is on the least likely scenario, the one I've called illogical.

[DuckDuckGose]

That's a funny, confounding way to frame a pretty simple question.

 

Straightforward question: Can Ryan Goins hit in the big leagues?

 

Logical stance: No. He wasn't even a league average hitter in AAA, at 25 years old!

Illogical stance: Yes. I believe in the Goins.

 

60 AB doesn't prove that Goins can't hit, but every day where Ryan Goins struggles to hit big league pitching is still an affirmation of the logical stance in some respect. We already know that he very probably can't hit at all. The burden of proof here is on the least likely scenario, the one I've called illogical.

 

Or the most logical stance. Let him play the games as he's going to be given AB's anyways and digest the stats as the sample becomes meaningful.

[GD]

Or the most logical stance. Let him play the games as he's going to be given AB's anyways and digest the stats as the sample becomes meaningful.

 

But the sample won't become meaningful until it reaches the point where we probably can't afford to take the risk of increasing the sample further.

[JSFIP]

Idiots. Just idiots everywhere. Give goins a chance. Thread over. Give up.

[DuckDuckGose]

But the sample won't become meaningful until it reaches the point where we probably can't afford to take the risk of increasing the sample further.

 

Can't afford? He'll be in AAA next season and will get more AB's when injuries happen.

[havok24]

Idiots. Just idiots everywhere. Give goins a chance. Thread over. Give up.

 

Do you have anything of substance you want to contribute to this thread?

[GD]

Can't afford? He'll be in AAA next season and will get more AB's when injuries happen.

 

I'm speaking to the possibility those ABs come as our starting 2nd baseman.

[Laika]

Or the most logical stance. Let him play the games as he's going to be given AB's anyways and digest the stats as the sample becomes meaningful.

 

It takes ~500+ PA's for something like OPS to become somewhat stable. There's a massive opportunity cost to giving players like Ryan Goins a starting gig and 500 PA in a season to find out if they can hit. It's not a good practice, and it's not something that the Jays have to or should do.

[Ehh]

I'd rather have Goins than Isturzis

[DuckDuckGose]

I'm speaking to the possibility those ABs come as our starting 2nd baseman.

 

That isn't going to happen. Even if management does in fact make that decision to do so based on a one month sample, regardless of the results, would be moronic.

[John_Havok]

It takes ~500+ PA's for something like OPS to become somewhat stable. There's a massive opportunity cost to giving players like Ryan Goins a starting gig and 500 PA in a season to find out if they can hit. It's not a good practice, and it's not something that the Jays have to or should do.

 

It's different if the Jays were at ground zero of a rebuild like Houston. They can give 500+ PA to a 25 year old defense first guy to see if he'll amount to anything with the bat when they know they're only going to win 50ish games in a season. The Jays, who are supposedly in the middle of a contention push, cannot afford to give 500+ PAs on that kind of player.

[DuckDuckGose]

It takes ~500+ PA's for something like OPS to become somewhat stable. There's a massive opportunity cost to giving players like Ryan Goins a starting gig and 500 PA in a season to find out if they can hit. It's not a good practice, and it's not something that the Jays have to or should do.

 

I'm not suggesting anyone give Goins' 500 AB's in a starting gig. I'm quite confident he'll get that many between this season and the next two though.

[DuckDuckGose]

You can't just give every scrub in the organization time to show that their AAA results were a fluke. This would be disastrous.

 

That's a tad hyperbolic. Goins isn't a scrub, right now he's replacement level AAA depth. Perhaps he can improve his hitting and be a bench piece. Very little of that is based on a 60 AB MLB sample though.

[John_Havok]

That's a tad hyperbolic. Goins isn't a scrub, right now he's replacement level AAA depth. Perhaps he can improve his hitting and be a bench piece. Very little of that is based on a 60 AB MLB sample though.

 

Scrub = replacement level AAA depth.

[JSFIP]

Do you have anything of substance you want to contribute to this thread?

 

Yeah, find it

[DuckDuckGose]

I think that it's possible it could happen. Sadly, I wouldn't be surprised.

 

The Jays aren't going with the status quo for next season. If Goins is the starter it's because they've added payroll and/or talent elsewhere on the roster. It's obviously not ideal to go with Goins and there are several clearly superior options.