Olerud363.354
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Everything posted by Olerud363.354
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He had 1 fWAR in 50 games. I mean... c'mon. I didn't say "he is showing consistent year to year 3 WAR performance". This board needs to shape up. Just headed to the fate of the old board where no new posters will ever join because of the ridiculous negative vibe that goes on here. Proper way to respond to my comment "Dear Olerud363.354, while Martin did have 1 fWAR in 50 games, which would be 3 in 150 games, I do believe he will never reach that potential. He will be injured. He will regress. He will be forever a dissapointment. It is my hard held belief that the 3 WAR potential of Austin Martin will never be realized"
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Austin Martin and Spencer Horwitz are also both looking good enough to be 7th hitters on a playoff team (or a 2 hitter on Pirates/Twins). I mean we don't know yet how their careers go exactly, both are late bloomers, but showing 2-3 WAR potential. Martin especially was one of the reasons we hated Shatkins, for screwing up the 5th overall pick, but last year Martin kind of played well as a high on base speedy outfielder. If somewhow Berrios and Martin both have 3 WAR next year it will make Shatkins look even better.
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I guess on the other hand it is impossible to know what skills and situations will become important in a playoff series. This World Series, with Bo Bichette not able to run and 2 extra inning games with 3 runners thrown out on the bases (2 at home plate) in those games... is like the baserunning World Series. A different world series maybe there is a bunch of hard plays in the middle infield. Will say would be nice if you don't have to use multiple players for 1 substitution. Like Lukes/Schneider/Straw sequence where 2 players used over 1 out.
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Though arguably Little was needed. Any extra innings game you do need those pitchers. Problem is IKF is an average runner. Like honestly Cavan Biggio would have been better in that role. Or Joey Loperfido. Joey Loperfido has played 50 minor games at second base. And if you don't want to put Loperfido at second put Davis Schneider there. Like maybe a bad idea to put Loperfido at second in the World Series not being there for two years. What I mean is put Loperfido at second a few times in the regular season just in case.
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I went back to look at the exit velocities from the Monday June 9th game. The Jonatan Clase game. Turns out he had the second best exit velocity that game at 108... The 108 wasn't the homer. The homer was 106. I think those may have been his two hardest balls as a Jays though. Nothing super-special for "best EV" or "best distance"... but at a dramatic moment. Sprint speed and arm though rank high. Routes? Apparently not super-great. The 20 homer minor league season is promising. 56 total minor homeruns vs Straw 7. Like Clase has more of a chance for a big swing somewhere.
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What was his sprint speed? Kind of amazing though to do even that being thrown into AA at 30 without having played baseball in 12 years. I kind of feel like 1994 Jordan would have been a good fit for 5th outfielder. Maybe get him some reps at second. 1. Great sprint speed 2. Championship experience 3. Long reach If the 1994 Jordan was on third instead of IKF Jays win world series, good sprint speed, long wing span, athletic ability to do head first dive. =
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Fair enough. I wonder what you do with Clase though. I think I've heard some posters say he may be DFA'd. Seems like a waste of the skillset. Is his defense sub-par (despite elite speed) ?
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What do people think of Jonatan Clase vs Straw? Clase has elite sprint speed and decent power (as evidenced by a 20 homer minor league season and that one long clutch homerun I think against the Cardinals) decent walk rate. Straw is a noodle with the bat but decent walk rate (for a noodle), speed and a .250 hitter. Frustrating seeing Straw come up so much and so empty in the World Series, but that is low sample size and his skill set could have just as easily produced a walk or single that would turn a game. Clase would have been more a threat for some power that could turn a game (of course could just as easily gone 0 for 9). I guess we owe Straw money, but would you rather of Clase in that roster spot. Would it be possible to trade some combination of Straw, Satander, Berrios for another bad contract? If so which one?
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1 - I don't think anything changes from post to post. I've had the same style for 20 years of posting on the variations of this board. The point I was trying make was pretty simple but maybe it went over people's heads. I consider myself a casual fan because I don't look at advanced statistics much (though I appreciate they exist and other's knowledge of them)... I mean I go to fangraphs and look at WAR but everyone does that now. What I don't do much of is looking at pitch level data. So in a casual way I can go to baseball reference and look at Clase's ERA in 2024 (0.6 or something) and 2024 playoffs (10.0 or something) and say hmmmm.... as others have done too. What I am curious about is what the pitch level data indicates. Like he got caught for the pitch rigging thing not just because he was throwing balls but 'wasting' pitches at a crazy rate... so curious if there is anything in the pitch data from the 2024 playoffs, like middle/middle rate or something that would be suspicious.
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He did good in dominican or something (per ang). Get Stroman and him back together to make up.... lol... vaguely recall the first sign of trouble with Stroman was he apparently didn't get along anymore with Sanchez.
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The guy was great his first 2 and a half years here. Never heard about any problems. Maybe as time went on, the team got worse he didn't get along with his team-mates. But does he have anything left? Numbers look terrible last year, and he seem to get more and more problems getting along with people as the years went by.
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And got caught for steroids... as did Clase actually.
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I made the mistake of looking at IKFs sprint speed (27 or so 47th percentile) then got thinking would the Jays have won with Cavan Biggio? Biggio has 80th percentile sprint speed (butterfly effect, I know, Biggio high fives some guy different than IKF would have and everything after that is different... but still)
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Might have to give away Nimmala in that type of trade. Kind of similar to Marisnick in a way. Real toolsy guy who hadn't quite hit really well yet. Wow that was a weird trade looking back on it. Yunel Escobar and Jose Reyes were about the same age and actually similar hitters, but Yunel coming off of a down season and non-woke eye black. Reyes was faster Yunel was a better defender and cheaper. I think the entire trade sucked from Blue Jays perspective in retrospect.
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Like the idea of using financial advantages in creative ways. Got to be some matches where team can take on good contract + bad contract that is equivalent to what you'd pay in free agency.
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Are any of these guys fast? The world series where we lose by an inch in game 7 at homeplate won't happen again, but close and extra inning games in playoffs likely will.
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Not like Scherzer and Bassitt are taking 1 year 10 million for friendship, or Bo taking the qualifying offer. He can still pitch OK but not at previous level and seems to need a lot of rest... some of that might be normal coming off of TJ but maybe something else too. Maybe didn't want to do physicals this year, heading for something like the Hoffman situation where he might not pass a couple of physicals and go like 3/60 (not pass physical), 2 36 (not pass physical) and have to settle for 2 - 30 or something (like Hoffman kept getting slightly worse contracts as he failed physicals). So just took the option, and be a once a week pitcher work with Jays staff to get healthy,
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I don't know anything about him other than stats scouting his numbers. First player I think of when looking at his numbers is Nick Swisher.
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Apparently Rosie D. of Toronto Star voted for Voight... why? Why do any of these people vote for 87 win negative run differential manager that benefited from a crazy Tigers slump?
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And losing to the Dodgers the way they did is better than losing 4-1 in a ho-hum World Series. Practically speaking the 2 extra games in Toronto and insane TV rating probably made 5 million over a 5 game boring World Series. Also made it appear as Toronto was about as good as LA...
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Kwan and Nathan Lukes were pretty close 2025 in fWAR per plate appearance. Kwan doesn't hit lefties too well, so despite the fact he is not platooned maybe he should be? Like Davis Schneider might be better against lefties. Kwan - a bit better hitter, a bit better defensively, 3 years younger Lukes - a bit cheaper, more of an unknown. Lukes/Schnedier - better than Kwan?
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ooohhh... sorry. Like the Ohtani thing Clase's 2024 ALCS numbers are a bit scary. Not saying I personally think he blew the ALCS, or that Ohtani is a degenerate gambler who sent his innocent translator to jail... just that many other people do think both of that now...
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Brendan Little's career homerun rate per 9 is twice that of Clase's. Outside of the 2024 playoffs the most homeruns Clase has give up in a season is 4. Brendan Little gave up 7 in 39 innings in 2024. 2 in the 2025 regular season. 2 in the playoffs. We can perhaps consider it was gambling related. However maybe the more likely explanation is that Little isn't as good as his 2025 homerun rate, and Little has bad control, became afraid of walks, so this made it more likely for him to have meatball misses. Plus Little so far has no associations with Gamblers. Clase has a many more innings of low homer baseball before the 2024 playoffs. Clase doesn't have control problems. Clase has an association with Gamblers. So basically given all that there is more reason to wonder about Clase's 3 homers in 7 innings in the 2024 playoffs than Little's 2 homers in 2025.
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Give me a break. If Little had Clase's regular season numbers and was already indicted for some minor gambling thing I would suspect him yes. Reasons not to suspect Brendan Little of crime: 1. Was already slumping leading up to playoffs. 2. Not indicted for minor gambling crime.
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Yes crime. Serious crime. 2022 he had a 0.00 ERA in the playoffs. 2024 he had a 0.65 ERA I think in regular season. 2024 he had like a 10.00 ERA in the playoffs. Minor crime - I will throw a low pitch so my friend can make 1000 on his Parlay then I will strike out the side. Major crime - I will blow the ALCS so the mafia can make 9.8 million. Casual Fan like Olerud363.354 - I look at the baseball reference (bad site compared to fangraphs) and see big ERA by Clase in 2024 playoffs but not 2022. I wonder if major crime occurred? Will ask the expert posters on Blue Jays Centre (formerly Blue Jays message board) what they think.
