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Olerud363.354

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Everything posted by Olerud363.354

  1. Olerud363.354
    Random chance you'd expect 20% of the time in a 5 game division to be ahead game 40. In 33 years they've been ahead once... by 1 game. Never had an mind blowing exciting start in the Wild Card era, and almost always dissapointing. Many over-before-it-began years, even when expect to contend. Amazing their attendance has been as good as it has been without any hot starts extending to mid Spring
  2. Olerud363.354
    game 40 2022 - 7 games back game 40 2023 - 6 games back game 40 2024 - 8 games back game 40 2025 - 3 games back (would slump to 8 shortly) game 37 2026 - 9.5 games back
  3. Olerud363.354
    game 40 2017 - 8 games back game 40 2018 - 6.5 games back game 40 2019 - 8 games back game 40 2020 - 5 games back game 40 2021 - 0.5 games back They slumped just after that with some bullpen blowups and got 6 back quickly.
  4. Olerud363.354
    game 40 2011 3 games back game 40 2012 5 games back game 40 2013 9.5 games back (2013 was the year they got Dickey, Reyes, Josh Johnson, Melky, Buerhle... out of it right away lol). game 40 2014 1.5 games back game 40 2015 4.5 games back game 40 2016 6 games back 2015/2016 the legendary ALCS years... still an average of 5 games back mid-May
  5. Olerud363.354
    game 40 2006 - 1 game back It didn't work out but I remember this. 20 years ago. Flower blooming and hope... there was hope! game 40 2007 - 9 games back game 40 2008 - 5.5 games back (Gibby gone soon) game 40 2009 - 3 games AHEAD (ha ha, that season went south real fast and they ended up 30 games back) game 40 2010 - 5 games back.
  6. Olerud363.354
    game 40 2000 - 4.5 games back game 40 2001 - 3.5 games back game 40 2002 - 13.5 games back game 40 2003 - 7.5 games back game 40 2004 - 6.5 games back game 40 2005 - 5.5 games back
  7. Olerud363.354
    Never had the opposite unless you are over 40. game 40 1994 - 7.5 games back game 40 1995 - 9.5 games back game 40 1996 - 6 games back game 40 1997 - 6.5 games back game 40 1998 - 10.5 games back game 40 1999 - 4.0 games back
  8. Olerud363.354
    Scouting report grades Okomato - 70 power - can hit 110 mph 25 degrees to all fields with good spin. Straw - 50 power - much improved after working out with Addison Barger Lenyn Sosa - 45 power - good launch angle but only average exit velocity Luis Arraez - 25 power - great contact rates but at cost of power Vladimir Guerrero Jr - 20 power - and no longer doing the other things well. .300+ average is a fluke.
  9. Olerud363.354
    Hard to see what there is to like about Sosa. Nothing really in the minor league, or major league stats, or the defense to like. Nothing on the Savant page to like except launch angle sweet spot, but it is cancelled out by so many other horrible things. Like worst in game plate discipline and only 50th percentile exit velocity. So he swing at bad pitches, gets in bad counts, then occasionally launches it at 90 mph at a nice angle? Walks - 0 Launched at nice angle at mediocre velocity - a few overall .238 .230 .300 or something (including white sox) on base percentage lower than average Rather lose with Davis Schneider. Or McCadoo. He can have Sosa's 40 man spot.
  10. Olerud363.354
    Sorry about the rant and I love this team, they gave so much joy last October (not November). Just this season, given expectations has been the least joyful in my memory. I mean, to cheer me up I went to check out the Dunedin hitter stats. Not cheerful stuff right now.
  11. Olerud363.354
    Really? He was in such a good place in October. How did we get back here?
  12. Olerud363.354
    JOJO Parker DONE! Bullard DONE! Sanchez DONE! These f***ers are doing it again, just like Bonilla and Nimalla. The Dunnedin collapse. Why can't someone actually hit as a teenager and be exciting. Blue Jays Message Board: "They are only 19. Doing great for their age" Vlad/Bo/Kirk hit .350 combined as teenagers. And they barefly function many months and years at the big league level. f*** ALL OF YOU. JO JO PARKER SUCKS!!!!!! Vlad Guererro Jr. Sucks!!!!
  13. Olerud363.354
    Vlad Guerero Jr. The average will fall. It is just a fluke. Not even Luis Aaerez. 500 million down the drain. Broken never fixed. Jayson Heyward with some better early years. 2026 .244 4 homers 67 rbis -4 WAR 2027 .154 0 homers 26 rbis -8 WAR 2028 .098 500 ground balls at 82 mph -14 WAR 2029 released signed by Red Sox. Wins 3 triple crowns when they fix his swing by just looking at 2019 New Hampshire, 2021 and 2025 playoff video.
  14. Olerud363.354
    Just incredible that this IS still happening. He is up right now. He will hit a ground ball. That's it. OF course he will. How did this happen again? How did he hit so well against postseason pitching? What was different. Why is this so hard to fix?
  15. Olerud363.354
    Off-day tomorrow but still Varland on track for like 80+ innings. Do we really need to use him here in a hopeless game?
  16. Olerud363.354
    https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/brumfja01.shtml Jacob Brumfield hit .257 .318 ..393 At first one would think much better then Lenyn. But no. Not really. Different time. OPS+ career 85. So about the same as Lenyn. Why are we still doing this in 2026? 1996 - no exit velocity data. no OPS+. Just starting to understand things, but figure play Jacob Brumfield (especially against righties) not good. 2026 - advanced world series participating oranization decides Lenyn Sosa good idea? Why not Davis Schneider 1. Some underlaying stat may save Davis can't hit fast pitch from right hander 2. But... we don't know for sure if that fancy data really gods truth. 3. Davis nice guy and really help the team to World Series last year 4. Good organization just say Davis nice guy, Davis take walks. Davis get all the playing time when injury, even if hitting .140. Better for long term organizational rep then Giving Lenyn so much playing time.
  17. Olerud363.354
    Charles McAdoo vs Lenyn Sosa vs Davis Schneider vs Otto Lopez Why is Lenyn Sosa hitting cleanup? Did not watch most of the last 3 games. a) I saw Lenyn swing at very bad pitches early Sunday then left b) I read on Twitter later Jays almost won but Lenyn hit into devastating game ending double play (107 mph I guess?) c) Lenyn has 0 walks. Lenyn has career .272 on base percentage. At what point is the organization dumb for this? Like they have some exit velocity attack launch angle data that says he should hit cleanup? Many have come and gone including Otto Lopez and IKF. If it wasn't for IKF 1 no McAdoo. Why not play McAdoo ? He's 24 and good overall minor league numbers (better then Lenyn) Yes Lenyn get over 100 OPS+ once. like 101, but overall 83.
  18. Olerud363.354
    Most of the doom and gloom so-called crap is basically correlated with fangraphs odds. So I wouldn't call it crap. Just different ways of looking at the same data. A couple of points 1. Philosophy of probability and positivity - some may see 3% chance of winning division and despair in to hopelessness, others may cheerfully say 'there is still a chance!'. Not much can be done if both realize the chance is 3% just view 3% with different outlooks. 2. Not understanding the odds - maybe one group thinks it's 1 in a million to win a division and the other thinks it's 75% ... in that case you can try logic, links to fangraphs and other playoff prob systems to get both groups on the same page.
  19. Olerud363.354
    I haven't read the entire game thread so not sure exactly what happened. In terms of letting things go... I don't know. If you have a strong opinion human nature to keep bringing it up, obviously needs to be a balance. Bringing it up 50 times a day -- too much Bringing it up once every 2 days -- about right Bringing it up once a year -- too little probably. Also don't just bring it up when your opinion looks right, If Barger hits .300 .400 .600 for a month and Jays go 20-5 Barger skeptics should bring it up and say wow! proving me wrong, this is the best franchise in baseball. If Barger hits .180 .230 .280 for a month and Jays go 5-20 finding themselves 20 games back in June Barger enthusiasts should bring it up and say 'boy, the negative Nancies sure were right this time, this is the season from hell and we may not see another meaningful game for a decade!'
  20. Olerud363.354
    Actually good teams in 98, 2003, 2006, 2008, 2014 Supposed to be good 1995, 1997, 1999, 2000, 2007, 2013 In almost every case got behind early. This is Blue Jays baseball since 1993. Always working from behind. The 98 team worked themselves up to 3 games back of the wild card. As did the 2008 team. In both cases the hated Red Sox came out on top with a hot September. Just difficult working from 10 games back on Star Wars day. Already looking forward to next year. Just once wouln't it be fun if it was the Jays with a 10 game lead mid may? Or hell even 1 game behind mid May instead of 10.
  21. Olerud363.354
    Yes it is possible. History 2/26 = 7.6% Fangraphs = 3% Blue Jays Message Board = 75% (the way people talk). It's like because we rallied last year people are like... yeah yeah, just getting warmed up. Yankees will have their swoon. Jays are the team of no hope. They erase hope by May 1st most years falling 10 games behind. Even though no hope they come back very rarely. Young ones don't know the feeling of a team playing good all year,. 36% or so for making playoffs though. If we can rally for 84 wins we can sneak in to wild card 3 and head to Cleveland or Chicago South Side... or maybe Kansas City. However it will get worse before it will get better. Very sad sweep happening right now.
  22. Olerud363.354
    Since 1993 Yankees get big lead over jays in 94, 95, 96, 97, 98, 99, 00, 01, 02, 03, 04, 05, 06, 07. 09, 10, 11, 12, 15, 17, 18, 19, 21, 22, 24, 25 Jays come back 15, 25 Times Jays come back 2 Times Jays don't come back 24 Blue Jays message board. Jays will come back. Logic, History, Fangraphs, statistics, AI and probability - they won't. Maybe every 15 years they come back from this, they almost certainly won't this year.
  23. Olerud363.354
    Back in '85 145 rbizzzz. MVP. Deservedly. 145 RBIZZZ. Mattinlgy's hitting tips part 2: Ricky was distracting as f***. All over the bases. Being Ricky. But I just let my hand eye do the work and I won the MVP. 5.6% k %. You gotta make contact. I had 100 more rbizzzz then strike-outs. You guys are the opposite. Take this Davis Schneider kid, 45 rbiz 144 strike outs. Like literally the opposite compared to me in 1985. We gotta reverse that. We gotta your hand eye coordination working for you. Let's watch some video of me driving in Ricky. I'll show you how it's done.
  24. Olerud363.354
    Donnie baseball Tips - "back in 1985 I had henderson on 350 times in front me, on second base 120 times, so what I'd do is wait till the last microsecond and if was a breaking ball I'd line it over the short porch, if it was a fast ball I'd line it up the middle, try to get it into the gap. Key is to just wait to the last second then react. Let your hand eye coordination work for you. And don't get distracted by anything, I mean I had Ricky running all over the place and still squared it up all the time. Just got to let your hand eye coordination work for you. That's what I did." Leonys Sosa - Never thought of that Donnie, I'll let the ball get a bit deeper and let my hand eye work for me.
  25. Olerud363.354
    I guess he should have said "Got fooled skip, looked like a hanger. You probably remember that feeling from your cup of coffee in Syracuse. Or maybe you don't as they didn't sweep like that 2006 in the International League" Or maybe he did say that.
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