Olerud363.354

Juan Sanchez is a pretty good minor league hitter .296 .386 .485 even with his early season slump. I think career rates, including Dominican and morning Florida leagues are the best way to evaluate a guy, include the good and the bad. But are we thinking Sanchez is even better? Like .350 .450 .600 ?? Discounting his bad month would probably put him at legendary once in a generation level. If you guys are right then the outcome would be that he is knocking on the door in 2028. Like if you discount his slump he's Vlad level. Actually he could be here next July (Vlad was ready then but hurt his knee), Now if we include his slump, he's a good, but not legendary prospect. And there will be some ups and downs and he'll take a bit longer.

No. If intimidated by crocodile wrestling MAGAs in bikinis and unable to navigate Walmart and that in turn effects ability to hit baseball, that will rear it's head again. What happens after his first paternity suit? Or he goes 2 for 24 first week in the majors? Or he bets on his own game and thinks his bookie might rat him? Or he signs a 400 million dollar contract and slumps? Kind of think if he was weirded out by Florida to the extent it effected his hitting that will show again. Better long term indicator if the slump was just random.

I travel to a few ballparks and the best place to sit is just behind the visitors dugout. Visiting fans often go to the visiting side. I believe it is 3rd base in Tropicana. If you going to all that expense anyway, you probably are going to buy good tickets. However if you are slightly thrifty, or are brining a lot of family friends, you might be able to hack the pricing chart a bit in the low attendance stadiums. Went to Rockies games in Denver last year, and I got some nice seats on the 3rd base side, right where the price changed. If you followed the Jays over the years you probably know to expect pain there. Just prepare.

Yeah. You are probably right. The Scottish that are hanging out in Boston for a couple of weeks, going to Red Sox games and downing 8 $12.00 beers a night in between World Cup matches probably aren't the Scottish version of common people. But there are apparently a few thousand of them... lots of loaded people in the world I guess. Or maybe they are just common people, and maxing their Scottish credit cards to the limit.

I know the exit velocity stats aren't always right. but... Matt Shaw - 101 36 392 feet Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 101 35 332 feet What the living f***? I've always noticed that his fly balls never as go as far as others for same exit v and angle. That example is extreme and may not be entirally accurate but the trend holds. Even when he used to hit the ball 118 mph it never went as far as you thought it should. Guy needs to go for swing repair.

Comiskey has always been for the working people, but Wrigley wasn't always for the Bourgeois, back in the day it was for the unemployed bums. When Reagan was president 85% of the world was working and the other 15% hung out at Wrigley. It was a playground for unemployed drifters and undesirables who still thought it was the 60s. "The dumb 15% that come out to day baseball" lol

100% true. I like Fenway because it really is a place for the common people. Just look at the Scots that filled it last week. But Wrigley is like a place for Bourgeois to go and pretend they are common people. "Look at the Ivy deer. I wonder if squirrels live there? Should we get a beer? No not an IPA lets get one of the beers the simple people like, what do they call it? The Blue Ribbon or the Miller High Life".

Insane and just a reflection of our decaying society where we've lost all common sense and compassion for common people. They want a certain number of day games, but that can be easily achieved without making the first game of a series a day game. I think there is like a literal bylaw that Friday's must be day games. However that is for the liberal semi-elite. The 275k a year professors, the 600k a year currency traders who leave the jr trader in charge Friday afternoon. The Neal Page's of the world not the Del Griffith's. There is a reason why the White Sox are the team of the common people, and the cubs the team of the elites. Comissioner should step in and make the Friday day games illegal, just make every first game of a series a night game, and the other ones day and you have enough day. The yuppie scum can take Wednesday or Thursday afternoon off.

You might be right. Willie Canate there will never be another. Tucker Toman though man. If he did hit like this the rest of the year like with some of it in New Hampshire... do the Rockies have anything better to do?

There will be quite a bit of pain on the road to being the first losing team to win the World Series. Like Terminator says watch some soccer then watch the As vs the Angels and the games of the other mediocre teams like your life depends on it, as it does. They all have to lose if playing a good (Yankees), bad (Angles) or NL team. If playing each other they have to split their series. No sweeps. The road ahead is tough and the mentally weak won't be able to handle it. Sucks that Mike Trout is on the DL. We need him tonight against the As.

Valenzuela is a mediocre minor league hitter in 8 seasons, 550 games. Even 100 major league games of good performance wouldn't indicate he'll be that good moving forward. It would be a risk counting on him to do this consistently as a full time player. Great backup. When Springer is gone maybe Kirk transitions to DH more. Be interesting to see a system where Kirk plays 60 games at catcher 90 at DH, and BV 100 at catcher. They didn't really commit to this with Kirk/Jansen though (signed Brandon Belt and Juston Turner to DH).

Sad that Grant and Spanky had to both leave apparently. This is why I say we all have to set a good example and be nice to even the ones we hate, just so things don't get out of control. I want to say Grant is younger than I thought. Like he may not even have been born when Junior Felix hit an inside the park homerun to propel the Blue Jays to the greatest comeback in baseball history. He would have been born obviously when Raimiel Tapia hit an inside the park grand slam to destroy the Red Sox. So many great moments. Some bad ones too, like when they came back against the Nationals last day of the season to eliminate the Blue Jays.

This is why I still say the slow start for the teenagers is a problem. He is going to have to be added to the 40 man next year I think, and is still 2 years away if he's destined to make it. So slow start for teenagers is a problem 1. It indicates they won't make it, which is sad when so much hope for these guys. 2. If they are destined to make it, it delays their arrival and there are potential 40 man problems. Like what if Tucker stays really hot and performs well for 6 weeks in New Hampshire perhaps boosted by their short little right field fence?

Jo Jo Parker another homer. Something like .240 .380 .420 this year and career right now. Tucker Toman hot a few homers the last week or two - .283 .409 ..486 this year, .240 .340 .355 career.

Given the bullpen situation it was a justifiable decision. After yesterday Yesivage is like .350 .450 .750 lifetime third time through the order. It won't remain that crazy but it seems like this is a pretty hard call. The 3rd time through the order effect is pretty big, and most of the time makes sense to take the guy out. Game 2 of World Series Gausman was cruising, then 3rd time through in the seventh 2 quick homers just like yesterday. Almost impossible to take a guy out after retiring 19 in a row though, even if the data said it was the right thing to do.

That's why I predicted the 78-84 Jays will beat the 108-54 Yankees in a playoff series.... It likely won't be that ridiculous because one of the mediocre teams will win 83 and that will be the one that gets the last wild card... probably. Just this season is setup for something silly like that to happen.

None of my post are annoying. You guys have all lost it. The phones have broken your minds, you can't read more than a couple of sentences. If you can't find humor in the combination of the current American league and the current Toronto Blue Jays then I don't know what to say. The irony is my posts have been both grounded in reality (guided by the fangraphs playoff odds) and also by far the most positive on the board. I have literally predicted multiple times the Blue Jays will win the World Series. If there ever was to be a team with a losing record, that also had a chance to win the World Series it's the 2026 Blue Jays. It probably won't happen of course, but just the fact that between a) a mediocre team in b) a mediocre league but c) with talent (Cease, Gausman, Varland, Hoffman, Guerrero) that could drive a deep playoff run, the chance is there. It probably won't happen because even though fangraphs predicts a bunch of teams with 80ish wins, the real distribution will be between 77 and 84 wins, and the 3 with winning records will make the playoffs, but still, fun to dream of a losing team making a deep playoff run.

This season has been a disaster and gets worse and worse every day. Except according to fangraphs the playoff odds have been slowly increasing since bottoming out at about 30% they are now up to 45%. And the dream to become the first team with a non-winning record to win the world series remains in play. A lot would have to go right and a few few things wrong for this to happen. 1. Fangraphs projects only 3 teams in the AL to be above .500 and three playoff teams to have exactly 81 wins (non-winning record) 2. So in fact there is a chance one of those teams could make the playoffs with a losing record and it could be our Blue Jays. 3. It is still unlikely a losing team or a .500 team make the playoffs I would think, it just seems that while the projections have a bunch of near .500 teams, the reality is some of those teams will win 84 and some 74 and the playoff teams will be above .500. 4. We can still dream though and here are my playoff predictions WCS: Blue Jays 79-83 over Guardians 84-78 ALDS: Blue Jays 79-83 over Mariners 86-76 ALCS: Blue Jays 79-83 over Yankess 102-60 WS: Blue Jays 79-83 over Dodgers 112-50

For 70 games at least this has apparently reversed. Arraez is elite defensively this year according to fangraphs and savant, Ernie sub-par. Real? Not real? Fluke? Flaw in the d-stats systems? Arraez got some good tips from SF coaches? Ernie lost a step? Will it reverse the second half? I feel like a bit of all of the above. Hard to believe Arraez was really that bad defensively. Not the fastest guy but obviously elite hand eye coordination and you think that would translate somewhat on defense.

Maybe. Looks like he has never played anywhere except 3rd and 1st which could limit his playing time in Toronto the next couple of years. Though I guess DH will be open next year. I wonder if his range and speed are awful. You would think Jays would give him occasional reps at 2b and left field if it was at all feasible for him to play there. On the other hand would be nice on days like the last two to have a real bat to sub in for Vlad.

Like if you divide it into 3 things 1. Return to 2021 Vlad and a run like Manny Ramirez/Cabrera had age 27 to 33 2. Yandy Diaz 2020-2026 numbers 3. Fall apart completely Jayson Heyward style. It's like in my mind I can so see 3. happening I'd take 2 in a heart beat. The difference between 1 and 2 and 3 is like 6.5 WAR player, 3.5, 0 WAR player. But 3 would be so disastrous, franchise and soul crushing, it would be a relief if 2 happens. With 2 you at least have a functional franchise and Vlad becomes the highest WAR player in team history via most games played.

The 500 million is over 14 years and pretty even I think. If he is the 3.5 WAR version of Yandy Diaz then the contract will be OK. At least for the next few years. If he literally played like Yandy Diaz for 6 or 7 years he'd be on a hall of fame track still with the counting numbers, batting title contention. He'd like be at 40 WAR at 34 with a few more years to tack on. He'd set the team record in WAR and most counting stats and good enough to hit third on a contender. That's the thought experiment I have. If a hypothetical higher being told you could lock in 7 years of Yandy Diaz prime, no more, no less, would you take it? If you don't take it Vlad could be better and return to triple crown Vlad, or could fall apart completely Jayson Heyward style.

But he was awesome for a month in between .... That was with 5 off, 2 game days, 1 off, 2 on, 3 off, 2 on, 1 off, 3 on, 1 off, 2 on, 4 off, 2 on, 1 off, 3 on, 1 off, 2 on. 17 off 18 games and he was great again ... and you mention there is a rumor he has some injury, and he does, bad back. Maybe give him some load management moving forward.

If someone said I give you 100% chance that Vlad will be as good as 2020-2026 Yandy Diaz for the next 7 years you take it right? Like that would be 20 WAR, no absolutely awful seasons. Contending for batting titles. Popping 25 homers once or twice. And never being a monster but never disaster. Like right now he is low end Yandy Diaz, and moving to up to good Yandy Diaz would be awesome. Like if you had to give up a chance of Vlad returning to 2021 Vlad, for a guarantee he is Yandy Diaz, not just the bad version but some good too, you take it now. Don't you?

.243 .318 .390 career minor leaguer and was mostly awful before this year. .330 .360 .580 this year, so maybe something clicked. Sean Keys had his first buffalo homerun this year. Up to .246 .380 .465 career, .290 .416 .590 this year.