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Olerud363.354

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Everything posted by Olerud363.354

  1. Olerud363.354
    Stroman Ponce Where is Ponce? Stroman was starting to get ready at this time in the process. If Jays get playoff odds to 20% the emergency playoff system needs to be activated. Ponce starts rehab games (he should already be getting ready to start rehab games just in case). Perry called up Keys called up Springer/Okamota/Vlad/Clemente - load managed. Tell them it's the playoffs already and they are going 2-on offday 3-on off-day 2-on 3 off days (like between series).... Smith given instructions to become a left handed jose bautista.
  2. Olerud363.354
    The assumption here is the Bieber and Woods Richardson are also injured, just not injured enough to go on the disabled list. Like therie arms have little tears (wear and tear) their ligaments are half attached (or not re-attached properly). They are injured. If Bieber and SWR are their 2025 version, or Waldron could be his 2024 version that would be good enough assuming other things go right. But yes, if these guys have barely attached arms or head (SWR 33-33 k/bb indicates a problem as does Bieber horrible k/bb) no chance... the chance is the chance that these guys are half functional. 13% or so.
  3. Olerud363.354
    3 lefties in a row. a) Lukes career .170 .270 .230 against lefties b) Springer sore shoulder and needs load management too. The Toronto Blue Jays high performance (a.k.a. low performance) team crunches everything. They know everything. Have faith. 78.4 projected wins, 13% chance at playoffs. It's time to give everything for the cause!
  4. Olerud363.354
    Perry will only be at 70 innings or so by September. If the goal for the year is 100, then 15 in September, 15 in the playoffs. Use him strategically.
  5. Olerud363.354
    I mean they sort of know. It's not completely random, but the magnitude of mistakes they make on both ends is sort of funny, both the 3 million dollar guy who can't hit in the FSL and the 100k guy who shows up hitting .350 there with 2-1 bb to k.
  6. Olerud363.354
    For hitters my impression has always been there is some very hard to measure hand eye coordination factors at play and no scout or amateur stats can totally detect it. Look at Gruber's favorite two player Kirk and Moreno. Very similar guys truth be told and when they showed up at 18 in some hick league in West Virginia or Tennessee or morning swamp league in Florida they put up video game numbers in 20 games. Then you get other guys who hit .155 with 2 walks and 30ks in those 20 games... and nobody knew before they showed up to face professional pitching. 3 weeks later they know. I exaggerate a bit, of course many players don't give you a performance extreme from which you can make a conclusion in 20 games, but you find out once enough data accumulates... but nobody every seemed to know before hand. I bet the scout who recommended paying the 3 million bonus, is like 'ah f***' real quick if the minor league numbers start coming in bad.
  7. Olerud363.354
    I look at career minor league ERA, walks, strike-outs and homeruns and innings pitched to get a feel for health and sample size. Hard press to find a lot of cases where this will fail you. Or maybe there are. Of course ERA can't be trusted over 60 innings but... Find me a guy who is pitching 100 innings a year in the minors. Good k/bb. Low homeruns given up. Consistent career age appropriate numbers. I totally get that when all you have is 60 innings in low A, you can't go by ERA (though hr rate and k/bb probably already tell you a lot). But what you want to see is the conventional numbers just look good over the years and stay nice as the y advance through age appropriate levels. So I think the issue maybe here is (Stanifer, Bloss and a few others) is that the simple numbers aren't staying nice in the upper minors.
  8. Olerud363.354
    Having already put up a 6 WAR season he also has a previously established high ceiling. I think his batted ball data and expected hitting data all really suck, like insane suck this year. However some guys are successful with low bat speed and relatively low exit velocity so he could be one adjustment away from improving or re-finding himself. Only 27. Would not expect him to repeat 2022, but could see a .260 .310 .400 season happen and he's probably a 5 WAR player with that.
  9. Olerud363.354
    It's unlikely though every coin flip goes your way. The offense is still not too great and every game is close and one random thing flips it. What if Nathan Lukes and Ernie Clement didn't hit 2 run homers at just the right time? What if Alex Bregman didn't ? What if Ernie hit the fly ball we needed Sunday in Philadelphia? Well what if Boston hit a fly ball with Duran on 3rd less than 2 out yesterday? I think the coins are flipping, not always in our favor though weighted a bit to us the last week. What we really need is the offense to get going and win like 8-3 or something one day.
  10. Olerud363.354
    Some of these will have to be part of the magical run. Vlad/Springer/Okamoto should be given 2 days off a week at this point. Not because the magical run is impossible, but because it is only possible if those 3 shake off their fatigue and lingering injuries and Sean Keys plays some kind of Kevin Maas (going a few years back there) role.
  11. Olerud363.354
    Does Colorado or Kansas City have anyone better to use playing time on then Toman. Does Toronto have anyone better to protect ?
  12. Olerud363.354
    On X they think they are cheating. They thought we were cheating too last year. And they thought the Rays were cheating too in early 2023. I think I remember posters claiming they knew the secret of the Rays early 2023, but being very cagey about it. It was weird. They like a 25-5 or something and the team hit insane, Then it calmed down and they didn't win the division nor a playoff game. And they (correctly) thought the Astros were cheating in 2017. And the Red Sox in 2018? I thought the Royals were cheating in 2014 and 2015. So many weird come backs and clutch hits at just the right time. Going way back Cito Gaston freely admitted he gave the guys signs and told them what pitch was coming. I remember on pregrame he flat out said Kelly Gruber couldn't without him (Cito) relaying the signs. Is it random or is it all cheating schemes phasing in and out as the opposition discovers and stops them?
  13. Olerud363.354
    We suck but we have a hitter that can hit .350 .450 .650 for months at a time. Or at 99.9999th percentile age and level adjusted. Did this in aa for 4 months in 2019. In MLB for 4 months in 2021. In MLB for 3 months in 2024 and in the MLB playoffs for a month in 2025. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. All we are asking for is 7 weeks of .350 .450 .650. Not 4 months. 7 weeks. Well maybe 11 weeks, but get the 7 weeks first. We also have like 2 former Cy Young winners I think. Biebs and Mad Max. They just need to return to prime form too.
  14. Olerud363.354
    Don't get me wrong. The relievers were fine over the last 5 days. Just that to pull a miracle off your going to need multiple 5 days stretches where they (including the no-names) are almost perfect.
  15. Olerud363.354
    The hypothetical magical run will need leverage relievers for 5 day stretches. And we already saw a first attempt at a magical run being thwarted (3-2 over last 5) because the leverage relievers were not perfect and tired. You never though what combination of misfits could help pull off a magical run. Last years late June to July 8th run that gave Jays the division lead had Chad Green, Jason Bruihl, Hoffman, Sandlin, Little, Rodriquez, Estrado (4 inning relieve appearance), Fisher, Ryan Burr, Fluharty all pitching (and pitching well) in close games.
  16. Olerud363.354
    Slightly to the right of center field over a 35 foot high Chick Filet sign. Interesting that Dasan Hill and Ty Southsiene have many similarities 1. Both drafted in 2024 and get million dollar + bonuses (Hill 1.9, Southsiene 1.0 million or so) 2. Both have .380 on base percentage, .325 slugging in their stat line (Hill's against). 3. Both have tremendous peak athleticism that they haven't fully taken advantage of (Hill throws 100 but doesn't know where it's going, Southsiene is very fast and has 420 foot to center power. I joke about the 3rd. Probably Myles Straw could do that too if he connected just right. Or maybe not??
  17. Olerud363.354
    I could understand the Hoffman trade better if they had managed to get payroll under the penalty point for the draft. Then it would be Hoffman + a guarantee of a top 10 pick if they don't play well rest of way. Seems though from what other posters are saying, that is not the case, and they at the mercy of lottery balls and if it doesn't go there way they could be picking 18th or something off a bad year.
  18. Olerud363.354
    The playoff odds are still dropping even though we are playing a little better. I think they went from like 8% to 6% and lower obviously after today. The playoff odds are just essentially the chance of a 1/15 semi-miracle where Jays go on an insane run, or the other teams weave a weird needle where they all stay a couple of games under .500. Every week neither of those things happen we are closer to the end. A bad week we are that end. Could be Over Thursday. We will see. I mean it is over, as in a once every 20 years thing would have to happen, but could over in a 1 in a million before long.
  19. Olerud363.354
    But the idea is to give Springer, Vlad and Okamoto days off. So you would play them 100% against lefties, and keys 100% against righties with one of them getting a day off. That would work out to the right amount of load management I think and give Keys a defined role (last time he sat a lot even against righties).
  20. Olerud363.354
    He has a .410 career minor league on base percentage. His minor league and major league stats are very comparable to Jose Bautista through the same age. There is only one Jose Bautista. So not saying he is going to start winning homerun titles. Not even saying he will be anything. Just that if you were looking for late 20s guys who could break out, this is the profile,
  21. Olerud363.354
    I love Davis Schneider but should he be sent down for Keys ? They don't appear to trust Schneider too much anymore and maybe justifiably so. Call up Keys and play Vlad/Springer/Okamoto/Keys 75% of the time. Okamoto looks gassed. Vlad looked great after 3 days off. Springer is an old man and injury prone. Keys if called up needs regular at bats. Maybe Vlad would be pissed at being a 75% player but I think you could justify at this point. The Barry Bonds Kawai Leonard load management system. Those two loved it, get Vlad and Springer to embrace it too.,
  22. Olerud363.354
    The second order effect of the offense on the bullpen is brutal. To win 3/4 coin flip games I think required Varland to pitch 3/4 including last nights 2 inning 30 pitch effort. It required Rogers to pitch twice including a 30 pitch effort. And everybody else had to chip in You can't have a sustained hot streak like this, first the games are coin flips and it won't always flip your way and it destroys the bullpen.
  23. Olerud363.354
    So they did not get under the payroll threshold to keep their draft pick? How does the 10 spot penalty work? Is it on their actual pick position or their place in the standings? If they finish 9th last and win the lottery does their 1 get sent back to 11? If they finish 5th last but get screwed in the lottery to 8th, does the 8th get sent back to 18?
  24. Olerud363.354
    Because I voted for DJT 3 times, and am hoping for a fourth opportunity**, my wife got me a blue sky account, hoping it would expose me to truths and fix this problem. It hasn't so far, but I do get some baseball analysis that is not available on X or JC. Blue Sky's lone baseball voice is excited about Batemen! ** not political, just explaining how I ended up on blue sky.
  25. Olerud363.354
    Scouting grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 20 | Run: 70 | Arm: 55 | Field: 65 | Overall: 40 Another 30,000 view. If these scouting grades were true seems kind of under-rated. Hit and Power are correlated I guess so the power could drag down the hit. But if you took this literally and he is say a 50 hitter with patience, a 70 runner and a 65 fielder... that is a starting center fielder. (not arguing slider-guys points really, 20 power might mean he'll hit like Myles Straw, even with good contact, but then not a 50 hitter, the power drags down the hit, semantics I guess). Saw he was measured at 30.2 sprint speed last night. Chandler is reportedly 29.5 or something. Those measurements can be off I guess. Doubt he's faster than Chandler.
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