Olerud363.354
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Everything posted by Olerud363.354
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Buck Martinez 454 games for Toronto Blue Jays 4.5 fWAR Joe Carter 1039 games for Toronto Blue Jays 7.5 fWAR Buck Martinez best hitting season - 1983 .253 .337 .454 .352 wOBA+ Joe Carter best Blue Jays hittings season - 1992 .272 .330 .508 .363 wOBA+ Buck was actually an awesome platoon Catcher - Has pretty big splits so hard to say that he would have been effective full time. Better player than Joe Carter per game. Had almost as much fWAR in 82/83 as Carter did in 92/93 playing half as much. (Cherry picking a bit because Carter best season was 1991, but who would even think Martinez 82/83 is comparable to Carter 92/93)
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Same lineup that led the majors in runs last year. However they are relying on Judge to be Babe Ruth version of Judge again at age 34 and for Jazz and Grisham to replicate career best seasons.
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What I mean by 3 point line in basketball there is that chart where in 1990 or something shots were taken all of over the place, in 2020s it is threes and close range only. On one hand 2025 Jays are fun and showed trying to hit .280 with 10 homers might work (but did anyone one actually do it? Ernie and Lukes were more like .265 combined). On the other hand Luis Arraez has no job so it is really .280 with 10 homers and nice defense and baserunning might work.
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I can't remember where I saw it, but there was some analysis that this is like the 3 point line in basketball. The .240 guy with 20 homers walks more to, so it ends up being .280 .330 .400 vs .240 .320 .420 (with a lot more strikeouts and some more walks) and the latter is slightly better WAR and maybe easier to get so have selection pressure in that direction.
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They don't move the barr too much though. Was being a bit facetious with the Alex Gordon comment. In his prime Gordon was 5-6 WAR and (like Zobrist) it's not really possible to get a player like that. Or even who is that player? Prime Nimmo is closer than I thought but not quite there. Gordon's best 4 year run was 21 WAR and Nimmo's is 16 I think.
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Outside of 2019 I think this management group just always tries to make a team that could win 90 and see what happens. Didn't always work out. It sort of 'seems' like there was a rebuild after 2016 because 2017 and 2018 didn't work out, but I think going into those seasons (keeping Donaldson for example) they prepared like it might work out.
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Another way to go could be a Alex Gordon type, if you remember him. Since we missed out on Tucker an Alex Gordon type would be perfect, Gordon was kind of cheaper, younger version of Tucker with better defense but maybe not as much power. Not sure who the Alex Gordon is in modern baseball but that would be a cool player to have.
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Comrade Andrew Stoeten had actually had a pretty good take. Just said Bo had injuries, questions about how well he'd age, and may have not been receptive to a position change (before getting foreced into it with the injurty)... Stoeten also went scorched earth on Rosie whatserface. Saw a couple of people saying she's the worst person they ever met. lol. I guess she has a feud with the front office. Don't have a subscritption to Toronto Star so not sure what she said. She also didn't vote for John Schneider.
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Not entirely sure this is true though. I heard his comments on Bo, and they were pretty tame without many details, just sort of an 'all sides guy' 'both parties might be better moving on'. I watched a few episodes of his pod-cast, which I think is done together with a lady reporter from Toronto? Not entirely sure as I have consumed this on sort of facebook/twitter feeds so just get bits and peaces. Sometimes has interesting things to say but never to negative really. Could be wrong. Saw one funny episode where Whitt was talking about having ADD in the outfield and trying to get a glimpse of TVs on the concourse to see football games, and mentioned he was happy to have Varsho or Keimier catch everything. Like I said, haven't seen every episode or anything, just what I saw was pretty light hearted.
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Want to avoid an IKF type getting either a run of playing time in the regular season, or critical at bats in playoffs.
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There was an argument about this a while back, and while it at first appears that Schneider has a significant advantage over Clement against righties, when you adjust for sample size it is almost nothing. However if you really want to get into the weeds you could argue about the sample size adjustments. What about Barger at second base sometimes? Then you get a Lukes/Varsho/Satlander/Giminez/Barger all in against a tough righty, and find out if this is feasible in the case of playoff weirdness or long term injury to Giminez or Clement. As a 'casual' I totally get that Barger doesn't have great range, but World Series Bo on one knee didn't have great range either. It seems like in the playoffs they were willing to do non-perfect defense first part of games, so you wonder if Barger at second first half of a game is do-able.
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You want to avoid the next IKF in the playoffs. So build the team with a plan that still works if any combination of two players get injured.
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I wonder if Okamoto, Barger or even Suarez could play second, the same way Bo played second in the World Series. None of these guys have the greatest range, but Bo on one knee didn't have the greatest range either. In the playoffs if we assume that 'elite' players are going to have disproportionate success, then we should assume awful hitters will have disproportionate failure. So perhaps even more important than getting a guy like Bo, is avoiding guys like IKF and Straw. So can Barger or Okamoto handle second for 2/3 of a game the same way Bo did? And if so that is probably something you want to do occasionally in the regular season before trying it in ALCS game 5 or something.
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Anyone can have a moment though. Varsho, Giminez, Barger, Davis Schneider and Miguel Rojas and old Max Muncy from the other side all hit big post season homeruns. Varsho left on left against Snell in game 1 was as big as Bichette game 7. Barger hit .367 .441 .583 in post season and could have been World Series MVP. Not sure there is any magic beyond maximizing team WAR. And adding Bo would add to that obviously.
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They already replaced him with Okamoto though. Everyone else on the position player side is coming back. Eyeballing the average of projections Okamoto is 2.5, Bo 4.0. So they are down 1.5 WAR, not 4.0. Adding Bo back in and reallocating playing time would be worth a projected win or two since he won't be replacing a 0 WAR player. Obviously in real life this all depends on who gets injured. I guess if Clement or Giminez got injured or severely under-performed it would be nice to have more middle infield depth.
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I did not mean to imply that Gaussman pitched badly at all. I just meant to say it was amazing the Jays got as far as they did, given they went 0-4 in their 'ace' starts ALCS/WS (by starter) Gaussman 0-4 Yesevage 3-1 Bieber 3-0 Scherzer 1-2 Overall 7-7 You have to wonder really what was going on with Bieber that he couldn't pitch game 3 and 7 of the WS then took the qualifying offer. Gotta appreciate him giving us what he did under whatever circumstances he was facing (which we still don't quite know).
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They also had Little implode and Hoffman, despite mostly a good playoffs gave up the most homers of any relief pitcher in the regular season, I believe. They went from not rostering Scherzer and Bassitt in the ALDS to Bassitt being the set up man and Scherzer the game 7 starter. Their number 1 starter Gausman went 0-4 in his ALCS and World Series starts.
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So for CBT purposes the value of the contract is calculated the day it is signed? Not year to year. That is interesting and opens up another can of worms. And they assume 5% interest rate? I get what you are saying. Maybe I am assuming the board has way more financial literacy then they do. I remember an investment thread on the old board and everyone was making millions during Covid while mostly spending their time posting. They seemed really sharp about Crypto and stocks, while I shorted NVIDIA and am still trying to figure out how to close that. I've lent money to friends who had bad credit card debt, I've bought bonds, and certificates of deposit, I had to decide if I wanted to fund a sunroof on my new Rav4 for $7500 extra compared to the poverty class Rav4 and whether I'd pay for the sunroof today or over 6 years. So just that pay now/pay later/what are interest rates/ what is inflation/ where are they going? seems to be things regular adults should have experience with.
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When I say no one knows what the Dodgers owe for the Ohtani contract, my understanding is they are paying 70 million dollars a year from 2034 to 2043. Every year from 2024 to 2033 they have to buy an investment (like a 10 year bond) that matures in 10 years to a value of 70 million. Inflation doesn't matter. Interest rates do. But inflation does matter to the extent it effects bond interest rates. Interest rates on a 10 year investment will change year to year. I think in 2024 that investment was 46 million, it probably would have been a bit more in 25 and a bit more still in 2026. Maybe I am wrong about how this works... but my understanding is they have to buy an 10 year investment again in 27, 28, 29 until 33. If something weird happens with inflation and interest rates the amount of money they have to invest year to year. could change by quite a bit.
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To summarize. The Dodgers don't know what they owe for the Ohtani contract in "present day" dollars. And neither do you.
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I guess most people here except for Jim were born after 1980. Jim should remember the 70s I think. Most of you should remember the covid inflation. Not to be polictical but Donald J. Trump is looking for a new FED chair to lower interest rate to like below 0 or something. This could increase inflation and will mean Dodgers need to pay more into their fund. Don't any of you trade bonds? I guess that is a boring job except for 1970 to 1985 and 2020 to 2023. However the entire narative that the Dodgers owe 460 is only true if we are in stable inflation/interest rate period.
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Losing the way they did was probably worth 10-15 million compared to losing in LA in game 5 (2 extra home games). I also motivated Ed Rogers apparently. Other than winning losing the most longest, drawnout, painful way is best (as compared to losing a dud World Series). 2023 Diamondbacks didn't have half this excitement around them going into 2024.
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The 10 year rate is not a short term fluctuation. It's medium term. Since Ohtani's deferral is about 10 years the 10 year is probably the most important proxy. When he signed the contract 30, 10 and 2 year were all about 5% I think. Now 30 is still about 5%, 10 year 4%, and 2 year is 3.5%. 10 year still fluctuates a lot because the crisis that can effect it (bad recessions, pandemic, inflation) play out on a few years time frame.
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Partly true I guess. I don't think the Dodger's downside risk is 0. The present day value of the contract is not fixed. Not to get political but if Trump get's his way with the U.S. Federal reserve the present day of that contract, which was about 460 when it was signed, could be 600 million before long. Other teams probably are not comfortable playing the bond market. How does this work for CBT? I assume they have to redo it every year.
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10 year rate in the US is down from about 5% to 4% since Ohtani signed the contract. So contract is already probably gone from 460 million or so to over 500 million... Not that I actually know how they invest the money. Maybe they bought ultra funds 3x silver with it and have a few billion already.
