Olerud363.354

If healthy he will be missed. We will have to see. If it turns out his legs start affecting his hitting you could be right. If his legs are fine and plays 154 healthy games he could get Soto induced MVP votes (Soto's on base percentage gets him 140 rbis and he makes a run for the batting title).

One hill I'll die on, and said about Nimmala (and got a lot of push back on the old board) is that if a guy is a someone they should destroy the first league they are sent to. Like they should hit like prime Mike Trout if he was sent to Colorado for 6 weeks. If they don't it already puts a ceiling on them. I don't believe the scouts can tell 100% what they have (like Bo wasn't a first round guy) and high school and college stats can't quite capture it. However the first 6 weeks in the Appalachian league in Buff-Fudge no where tell you a lot.

He hasn't played yet but I assume this is intentional. Like until very recently these guys would show up in some short season league after getting drafted and beat the s*** out of it. Seems like something changed just recently, and these guys are kind of sent to the high performance center instead of games after getting drafted. At the same age Vlad and Bo and were about 2 years away. I think __IF__ he is going to be good he's 2 years away. There's a high chance he'll fail because most do. The great talents often show up fast and the beat the s*** out of every league they are in... if they don't show up fast it often means they aren't good. (always exceptions either way). Kevin Ahrens still hasn't made it.

Insane. There used to be TV. You changed the channel and watched a different channel and at this time a year you could watch NCAA. You could watch Sunday night baseball. You just changed the channel. There is still NCAA for now, but sadly many hotels and bars don't even have normal TV. Was travelling a week ago and hotel did not have normal TV to catch up on NCAA and neither did hotel bar. Insane zombies walking the place with no common ground. I think people underestimate the effect this is having on society in general. Humans no longer work right. My wife teaches and the kids are so messed up. Can't read. Can't have any common reference points. 20 years ago a kid would turn to channel 57 ESPN and watch Sunday night baseball, and they would have common reference point. 10 years ago maybe it become channel 1048 as the cable got weird. Now it doesn't exist and the kid scrolls mindlessly frying their brain. Old guys come in for Sunday night sports and go to the channel they used to watch and not there anymore and become grumpy and non-functional. Happening with all the sports and driving the young and old mentally ill... sad to see. downstream effect of this will be horrible.

Yeah. Jays got away with that last year until they didn't. Problem is not only Lukes, but that it ends up Schneider, then Straw when he comes in for defense ... so the 2 spot in a couple of World Series games was a mess.

went to make sure my mlb tv was set up so I don't have to fool around with the password tonight and miss the first inning and... Buffalo is playing apparently? Did not know they start in March too. Felt sorry for Eloy Jiminez, though I guess not too different than Chicago in March. 30 degrees and 5 people in the stands. Thought in passed years the minors waited a week or so at least until April.

Does this basically mean he already is rehabbing the injury, and will show up in late April or something? I guess you never know for sure. Hopefully nothing too serious.

I get he's not the greatest 2b men, but they have played Horwitz there. They played a one legged Bo Bichette there in the 7 most important games in a generation. So I think they wouldn't have a problem putting Schneider at 2b in an emergency, I think they'd put him there for a few weeks if it was the best choice according to their win-modelling. They might also send Lukes down, as cruel as it is, if it's the best choice, and if they are really cold... though they may not be that cold. Or maybe according to their win-modelling, being cold leads to less wins long term because it makes harder to attract good role players if you are mean to one.

He was the highest paid employee of a 10000 person company and has more knowledge of advanced statistical analysis then the rest the board combined. Not even joking. May be off on the '10000' but the company was at least a few hundred people. He was wrong once in a discussion about how many at bats you need for splits to be meaningful (it is way more than one would think even with advanced stats background) but such things happen even to the greats. Wrong once is hundreds of times better than second highest authority (second highest authority is Laika, wrong 893 times, right 10129 for a 'correct' rate of over 90%, second to Jim at 99.99 %).

Who should have played short stop then? I don't think they would have been opposed to moving him for the right guy (Lindor). Interesting question is whether they would have been better switching Bo and Giminez starting from the beginning last season. I like the FG defensive rating, which tends to go from -20 (worse than a DH) to 20 (elite). Sometimes higher or lower but those are the usual extremes. So say Jiminez is 15 per 162 and Bo is -5 per 162. What happens if you switch them? I guess the expectation is that since there are more hard plays at short stop Jiminez will go up a bit and Bo closer to neutral, so maybe it ends up as 17 and -3 and you are 4 runs better.... Switching guys is a weird thing and those who follow analytics more than I maybe can give a better answer. But the idea is a guys defensive value doesn't change too much switching between infield positions (3b/ss/2b) or outfield (lf/cf/rf). Maybe a couple of runs because of more hard play opportunities at ss or cf. I think people confuse this with 'replacing' a bad defensive player with an awesome one. Like replaing Luis Aerez with Giminez could be 35 runs, or 32 year old Springer with Varsho 30 runs. Just switching guys around isn't nearly that much.

Awesome you got to see that. I was lucky enough to see Guerrero and Bichette in double a. Eastern league still gives the opportunity to see great prospects. Just have to drive a little further for some people. The NY Penn league was the awesome though, and closer drive for me to see several of the teams. Big loss. Any one who says independent ball is the same is wrong. Personally I never got to see St. Catherines. But how awesome would it be for several on this board to go to St. Catherines in June and see the Jays college picks... so anyone saying the new system isn't a loss, doesn't know what they missed. Of course I guess you can go see them in Buffalo when they get there. Certainly it's not like all minor league teams are in Florida now, just really they cut 15% of them. Still a loss. And seems like just a corporate decision, cut teams, more players in Florida and at the complex... And seems to me a lot of draft picks hardly play their first year. Like last year Jo Jo Parker didn't play. Not even injured as far as I know, probably just wanted him hitting off of machines and working on stuff.

In 1990 people at St. Catherines got to watch Carlos Delgado. Unbelievable. Any one here see him? Certainly Manfred is not responsible for St. Catherines losing their ny penn team, but the ongoing collapse of society is the reason for both St. Catherines losing their team, and no more NY Pen nleague. In a sane world minor league teams would be many. There'd be extras. You'd never eliminate them. They'd play within driving distance of the home team. In places like Buffalo, and London, and St. Catherines. A Jays fan could drive around seeing minor players and Doug Ford would come sometimes and cheer. Instead they play in Florida at 11:00 every team not near their home team, just in a swamp with Ron Desantis. If anyone likes that world I guess I am glad it brings you joy. I prefer the world of the late 80s and early 90s.

Baseball is still happening certainly. But watching independent league isn't the same as watching the high draft pick college stars. I remember watching Lind, Aaron HIll, Springer in the NY Penn league and it was awesome seeing players just drafted. Fun going to the local stadium and looking at who made it to the majors. Used to be one or two every single year, since 2020 there has only been one player from our town team make it. Independent ball isn't quite the same quality.

I assume he means he had a great 2021 and went 16-3 or something with a 2.30 ERA in 2022. Big contributor to the Jays first back to back 90 win seasons since the early 90s, and helped the Vlad/Bo/Kirk/Springer/Gausman version of the Jays establish themselves. Obviously not a contributor in 2025 (or 2023 or 2024)

Jake Casey hit a homer today. Great swing. Looks like his Dad or John Olerud. Just going by the stats he doesn't have that kind of talent college stats, college k/bb, and last year k/bb not that elite. Like those guys hit .440 in their best college year with a 40-10 bb/k or something. Olerud never even went to the minors Sean Casey hit like .350 in the minors and was in the majors already at Jake's age. Cool guy to follow and you never know... but probably more on a Cavan Biggio path, get some playing time in the majors and hit .250 .340 .400 in a good season.

They ended up eliminating short season leagues like the NY Penn leagues, that used to get the best college players that were drafted in June. t was great for these towns. Now they go to a complex league. I believe they often have two teams playing in the same complex. Like Dunedin, rookie at 10:00 am, low A in the evening. This is probably better for the organizations (work on players development in their Florida facilities) but horrible for growing the game. Used to be able to watch George Springer or Jose Altuve or Pete Alonso on a July evening. Now it is all in Florida with Ron Desantis and the old party people from the Villages not even caring, and the ordinary North Eastern people in towns not big enough for aa having lost out on good baseball.

Varland is kind of weird. His traditional numbers with the Jays are pretty average. In the last week of the season and the playoffs he had some huge moments. Starting with a 2 inning start against Boston when Jays had blow (tied) the division lead. Then striking out Stanton with the bases loaded, and another start against the Yankees in the ALDS clincher. Important game 6 and 7 innings in the ALDS. Also gave up some big homers (Judge, Jazz, Polanco, Rayleigh) all bit in potential losses (except Springer saved the last one). So it wasn't all roses. Just musing a bit on what he will become. If they keep using him in 'heart of the line-up' role inning 5-8 his numbers could look worse then he his. Like he was always facing the best hitters in the playoffs. So maybe the trade will look bad, but he will get big outs with a 3.66 ERA and 9 homers given up 4 by Judge.

Yesterday I mentioned there was more of a chance of Jesus appearing in 2026 then Santander or Eloy Jiminez. Strange that it happened but not the way I was speculating.

I would say more averigish, slightly below average but not truly awful. His chanse percentage is 33rd percentile, and walk rate 50th percentile. Seems slightly below average with average outcome (like he chases a bit more than average, but perhaps goes into deeps accounts so walks at an average rate). Ground ball percentage is 48%, to Teoscar 41%. BB % about 8% to Teoscar 6%. Biggest problem seems the ground balls. Maybe there is a tweak there.

So don't we still have Eloy Jiminez? Jiminez at this point is just as good as Tony. Both had good seasons once, both will have ended up playing 50 games over 2 years. Jiminez is two years younger. Admittedly Jiminez has only had 1 healthy season (and not this decade) with Satander 3. Jiminez has better minor league numbers and maybe more talent. The chance of either coming back is probably literally lower than Jesus Christ coming back this year. Not even kidding. On betting sites the chances of Jesus Christ coming back ends up being between 3 to 7%. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/02/08/odds-of-jesus-christ-appearing-in-2026-double-beating-return-on-bitcoin It's a very weird thing and I honestly haven't looked into it much, I would assume the payoff for Jesus Christ not coming back should be just below 1 year CD rates minus administrative costs then you could just make a bit of free money by accepting bets for it... but it is a bit higher than that. Not sure what the odds are on Jiminez or Satander coming back.

How different is this analysis if Lukes is the middle of the group? Like chase above 30% and Lukes is 31% couldn't he be compared to guys between 27 and 35 or something? Lukes also has a decade of minor league ball, and his line last year makes perfect sense when compared to his minor league numbers. .289 .352 .420 minor hitter, and .259 .328 .400 or so last year.

If he's doughy not a big deal. The problems occurred when he was flat out obese. The best he looked was honestly when he was 19. Never got back to that ... convinced he would have won the triple crown at 19 if they called him up in 2018. 2 years later during Covid he had gained like 80 pounds. Probably most of the time he is halfway between obese and fit which will be good enough hopefully.

He did. And that is why it is kind of a weird gray area. They weren't confident going game 3 and 7 with him in the World Series. And they weren't confident going with him on 4 days rest last Thursday of the regular season. So kind of wondering if the extra rest thing is going to be be long term... if so that is probably still a great outcome for 16 million. And maybe a 6 man rotation fits the roster (Yesivage stil young, Gaussman kind of getting old, Berrios not totally reliable)

Curious if anyone has any update on what is going on with Shane Bieber? Seemed like he never quite recovered from TJ and couldn't pitch on 4 days rest. Jays basically switched to the bullpen games last week of season to give him an extra day. Then World Series wasn't given 2 starts. Then accepts the option. Do you think a) Bieber will be able to handle a full workload 32 starts 180 innings, games 2 and 6 of World Series. b) Bieber will be healthy all year but have to be managed as kind of a once a week pitcher 115 innings, phantom dl mid season for rest and 1 start in in each playoff series. c) he is broken. Will pitch at Josh Johnson 2013 level.

I don't think anyone wanted him released, more just speculating whether he could get released if his arb salary got way above his value. His WAR was tracking Cody Bellingers who went from a very similar start as compared to Vlad to having no value, but a huge arbitration salary and got released. People also mentioned Jayson Heyward, even Vernon Wells who went from MVP candidate level to useless year to year. Interestingly both Vlad and Bellinger turned it around and are probably tracking to have similar careers in terms of total WAR. The arb system rewards a combination of counting stats and seniority. After Vlad 6 WAR 2021, he got 8 millioin, after his 1 WAR 2023 he got almost 20 million. People were just speculating what would happen if his arb salary was once again way more than his value... He had a great 2024 so we didn't arrive to that scenario.