Olerud363.354

Love Don Mattingly. I think the reason some didn't like him is that they didn't think it was possible to build a team around hitting for average anymore. As an outsider seems like Mattingly envisioned a team hitting with his style.... which I was skeptical of working. Sort of chuckled at Mattingly, a guy who struck out 30 times in 700 PAs and hit .350 once giving hitting tips to Joey Loperfido. Like those hitting tips won't work if you don't have 99.9th percentile hand eye coordination. Seems like in the end Popkins was a great compliment to Mattingly and perhaps (just speculating as an outsider) can relate to Schneider, Barger, Loperfido, like the high k Buffalo Boys better. Mattingly's approach probably works for Clemente and Lukes (I mean works as in they get most out of their skills with the line drive contact approach, not that they are Mattingly).

George Brett was intimidating in 1985. Having his second best season 5 years after hitting .390. Don Mattingly and Ricky Henderson and were intimidating in 1985 too having all time great seasons. The Tigers were an intimidating team from 1984 to 1987. Late 80s early 90s As may have been the best of the bunch, but beating an intimidating team in one important game was nothing new. Going up 3-1 wasn't new. It was only when actually beating the As that the monkey was off the back. The moment it became possible to make the World Series was probably Maldonado's homerun in game 6 1992 ALCS to make it 6-0. Pre-Youtube a lot of moments get lost that weren't late in the game. That homerun was like Vlad's grand slam game 2 against the Yankees except bigger. Springer and Alomar completely different feelings at least from my perspective. They were the Blow Jays even still after Alomar hit the homerun. No one knew if they could close it this time and they lost the next day. After Springer homerun and Bassitt/Hoffman shut down innings series was over. Springer's moment was the closing moment, while Alomar's was a step, the most important step but a loss followed the next day and still needed Guzman, Carter, Maldonado (and an important Olerud double) to finish it 3 days later.

My recollection was that everybody on this board had master kick-ass 'corporate bro' skills and made 7 figures between some not real job, crypto trading, meme stock trading, betting parlays and so on. Like I thought the average poster on this board was basically David Portnoy. Maybe I misunderstood. I remember there was like a investment thread or something on the old board and one time I was proud of my 5 figure NVIDIA trade and I considered bragging about it (humble brag and subtle) but it just seemed embarrassingly miniscule compared to the money the bros on the investment thread were making.

Not sure how many still remember the 1980s and late 90s. Again I was alive but not old enough to really absorb things. But really there were a lot of amazing games in division races and 1985 ALCS that had the Jays on the verge of the World Series. First big game I really remember was Friday night vs Baltimore, game 160 - 1989. I remember scoring a wild pitch and Moseby winning it in extras. Who remembers this game: https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/TOR/TOR198709260.shtml. Unbelievable game and the Jays won 3 crazy 1 run games against Tigers in 87 before losing last 7. People need to remember that there was no wild card or ALDS, so games against division rival in last week of season were at that level. And incredibly in 1985 (Yankees), 1987 (Tigers), 1989 (Orioles) and 1990 (Red Sox) Jays had last weekend games for the division (in 1990 because of Strike they had to play an extra series after last weekend). Just putting this in context for the 'best homerun' discussion. As a fan in that generation pretty to used to dramatic late season stuff (at ALDS level) but not being able to get over the hump. Springer is arguably number 1 in terms of what it means to the franchise. Game 7. Got this generation to the World Series. Carter won a World Series, but that is after the franchise had already won one, so didn't really break new ground. Historic moment of course. To me as a fan since 1988 two biggest games are game 6 of 1992 ALCS, and game 7 2025 ALCS. Carter's homerun and Maldonado's in that game are under-rated. Maldonado's equivalent of Vlad's Grand Slam in terms of in game feeling (blew it open), but above in terms of round (got them to World Series).

They had already been up 3-1 on the Royals in 85. And ahead 3.5 games against the tigers. I watched the 85 games but wasn't really old enough to remember every detail so had to look it up. Jays had 10th and 9th inning comebacks in games 2 and 4. So already in franchise history they had been up 3-1 in a series due to dramatic late inning comeback wins. So Alomar homerun was great, but it didn't bring the franchise to a place it hadn't been before. In 92 the monkey wasn't off their back until the lead built in game 6. I remember Canady Maldonado and Carter hitting big homeruns. Monkey wasn't off the back until last out though. Springer's homerun was game 7 and did bring this generation of the franchise to a point it hadn't been before.

According the baseballreference IKF is elite defensively (not as good according to fangraphs). IKF career .260 .315 .360 or so, Schneider .217 .320 .410 or so with much higher k-rate. Plug all that in to the magic lineup computer plus strengths/weaknesses against certain pitch types and I can buy that the data says IKF. Honestly not agreeing with it, just my guess that the Jays data might support it.

What a disaster. I mean what if the automated ticket system went down for the game?

Gotta think he is instructed to let it all out for an inning or two. Would not surprise me to see them go to Spier when they reach Varsho. Though maybe they save Spier for that lane later. May be go Springer, Lukes, Vlad, Varsho, Kirk, Clement, Barger, IKF, Jiminez. Then hard to get the Spier a good lane, either has to face Vlad or Kirk and Clement,

Two of the good organizations of the 2020s having their best year of the 2020s. Not much to choose from between these teams. First game 7 in 40 years. Second game seven in Blue Jays franchise history. First in Mariners.

I always thought the game would have evolved by now such that the 'starting pitcher' role would have become gray. That there would be more guys used as Lauer was used this year. Jays had an opportunity to do that this year but kind of passed on it. Like after Bieber came up instead of just moving Lauer to the bullpen they could have done some piggy backing and had everyone gotten a little experience out of the bullpen. I guess there is a lot of resistance to this. Starters probably just hate getting out of their routine. To bad Berrios got injured. Would love to see how his stuff played out of the bullpen.

Problem: Jordan Romano broke. Munoz consistently awesome. Jays have no Munoz. Jays have no one with acceptable splits. If you look at splits Little was best of awful choices. Jordan Romano 2022 Split G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR SB CS BB SO SO/W BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+ vs RHB 61 139 123 11 22 3 0 2 3 0 11 35 3.18 .179 .268 .252 .520 31 4 4 0 0 2 0 .233 96 49 vs LHB 56 119 109 10 22 2 0 2 3 0 10 38 3.80 .202 .269 .275 .544 30 1 0 0 0 2 1 .290 105 58 Andre Munoz 2025 Split G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR SB CS BB SO SO/W BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+ vs RHB 61 135 116 10 21 3 0 1 2 1 13 43 3.31 .181 .276 .233 .509 27 1 3 0 2 1 0 .270 107 47 vs LHB 60 119 100 8 15 3 0 1 3 0 15 40 2.67 .150 .265 .210 .475 21 2 1 2 1 2 0 .233 92 34 Jeff Hoffman 2025 Split G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR SB CS BB SO SO/W BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+ vs RHB 69 142 127 22 26 4 0 7 6 2 13 41 3.15 .205 .284 .402 .685 51 1 1 1 0 0 0 .241 85 92 vs LHB 67 145 126 21 28 10 0 8 1 0 14 43 3.07 .222 .313 .492 .805 62 0 3 1 1 1 1 .263 115 118 Seranthony 2025 Split G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR SB CS BB SO SO/W BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+ vs RHB 61 145 121 12 16 3 0 1 14 2 22 51 2.32 .132 .269 .182 .451 22 5 1 0 1 0 0 .214 46 32 vs LHB 60 116 101 13 28 5 0 4 5 2 14 28 2.00 .277 .371 .446 .816 45 0 1 0 0 2 0 .348 166 1 Little 2025 Split G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR SB CS BB SO SO/W BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+ vs RHB 75 156 127 16 25 4 0 1 2 1 27 46 1.70 .197 .340 .252 .592 32 4 1 0 1 4 5 .296 98 73 vs LHB 72 139 118 12 23 5 2 1 0 3 18 45 2.50 .195 .304 .297 .601 35 1 1 1 1 0 2 .301 103 67

Take a look at Hoffman and Dominquez 2025 splits against lefties. Lefties slug .480 or so against them. There was no good choice here sadly. Statistically Little probably the choice even considering bad second half. Maybe Little wasn't the choice going deeper into advanced. However Laika and others I think claim Little's stuff+ is the best out of the choices.

People aren't factoring that the other choices were also bad. Little was a bad choice. Munoz was the right choice. Romano (pre 2024) was the right choice. We don't have that. Best choice statistically was Fischer, but I assume there is some more advanced underlying data not good with him.

Not True. Dominquez splits are horrible against lefties. Hoffman is a homerun machine. Even if you accept that the second half version of Little is the real version, even if guys lay-off the curve and walk a lot, they still weren't hitting for power off him. Little's 'bad' second half splits were something like .200 .350 .350. This is not good. However Hoffman and Dominquez splits, 3 lefties in a row, were probably worse. Like lefties hit .270 .370 .440 And that's Little's bad split, his season split is much better.

Very sad. Big Mariner party in Toronto? I hope not but Krakens came in wearing Mariners Jersey's and had victory. Have they reserved party place for 1:00 in morning (after interviews and Big Papi send Jays to Cancoon). Second big happy Mariners party in Toronto in 4 years?? Mariners happy. Waving Fork thing. Laughing Dancing. Blue Jays sad. Seems tickets are cheapest I've seen for playoff game this year. Jays fan base traumatized? Too sad to see happy Mariners again?

Depends on what the more advanced information was saying. Based on season stats it was a justified decision. Based on a split going back N appearances it was a bad decision, especially if you choose N (21 or something) to go back to the Dodgers game where little gave up 3 runs in 0 innings. Season stats: I'll repeat myself. Correct choice is our own Munoz. Or 2023 Jordan Romano. Or a guy like Osuna who catches fire from A-ball. None of those available. Using season Stats Little may have been correct given other choices like failed medical homer-king Hoffman. N last appearances stats: Little was terrible using this metric, but need to know what the underlying 'stuff' metrics were saying about Hoffman, Little and Rodriquez. Like Hoffman was throwing 94 with bad control 3 weeks ago. Rodriquez has control problems too and bad against lefties. Need to know what the sort of 'last 10 appearances' more advanced stuff has to say about these guys, and I guess health status too.

After a couple of night sleep just convinced there was no good move there other than perhaps keeping Gausmann in a couple more batters. 1. Hoffman high homerun rate 2. Rodriquez bad against lefties and high walk rate. 3. Little best OPS against righties, low homerun rate, but very high walk rate and poor recent performance. There was no Munoz to go to is the problem. There was no prime Jordan Romano or Osuna to go to. If you rate relievers on a simple 1 (lights out) 2 (good) and 3 (shaky but sometimes gets it done) system, Jays have all 3s. Seattle has a 1 and two or three 2s. Brayden Fischer is the only guy with the numbers of a 2... but most people seem to think that is fake (at least they don't get mad when he doesn't pitch leverage).

Right move I guess was Gausman for 7... maybe. Sigh. Just all the options could have gone wrong and have gone wrong. Hoffman can and has given up 2 homers an inning. Gaussman can and has been shaky after 5. Varland can and has given up game changing 3 run homeruns twice in the playoffs. Real problem is that there are no shutdown relievers in the bullpen. Something like this was bound to happen and no one like Munoz or even Brash available to the Jays.

It's just a repeated pattern of Cherry Picking with Grant that has gone back ... 15 years? 20 years? At this point I can't even remember when I started posting with this group. I guess this group goes back at least to 2007 because I remember some strange lady constantly posting about Aaron Hill and his stubby legs, and she hated him just like Grant hates the Mariners and Suarez. Edit: What I mean is the same group of posters have been posting on different iterations of message boards, going back to the team board in the 2000s,

Little Johnny watching game with Dad on Rogers Sportsnet Channel. Little Johnny loves the Blue Jays. He is only 11. He loves life. He thinks the world is a happy place. His Dad tells him about Kelly Gruber. Little Johnny is like "f*** off" dad about Kelly Gruber this is my time (he learned the bad word from John Schneider because Sportsnet censors not doing their job. Little Johnny watches Suarez hit grand slam. Little Johnny cries for 2 hours. Little Johnny sad the next day. Little Johnny tells his Dad "Suarez has driven me from the game. Is it weak of me to give up?". Dad "No son. Suarez has driven me from the game too." Neither watches Sunday night game 6 or any other game ever again. Eugenio Suarez drives those two and many more away from the game.

According to fangraphs he's had 7 seasons of 3.5 WAR or more and 33.1 lifetime WAR. 3 good seasons with Cincinnati, 2 with Seattle. 1 with Arizona. And one split. He's been a good player everywhere he's played. He will end being in terms of fWAR at a level with Jose Bautista and Jesse Barfield. He's had 49 homers twice and was probably a decent 3rd basemen in his prime, but maybe lost a bit now. This Seattle is bad thing is lunacy. Seattle is a good organization. Toronto and Seattle are both good organizations this decade. They win about 90 and this year are on good playoff runs. Seattle has kept Munoz healthy, Toronto broke Jordan Romano so Seattle probably gets to go to the World Series and will likely give the Dodgers some trouble.

Slam dunk choice was Jordan Romero to get redemption for 2022. Unfortunately Jays couldn't keep him healthy and Mariners have kept Munoz healthy to anchor their bullpen. That might just be luck. From 1985 to 1992 Jays kept Henke healthy and performing, Duane Ward from 1988 to 1993 despite pitching up to 120 innings as a reliever. Ward's arm fell off after that. In 2015 20 year old Osuna and 22 year old Sanchez were the top guys. Osuna from A-ball. Sanchez had a low homer rate as a reliever in 2014-2016. Shut-down back end of bullpen is missing compared to 92/93 and 2015 teams.

Just did a quick check of his stats on baseball-reference and looks like he was his usual self in September. Lots of walks no homers. He hadn't given up a homer since July -- https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=littlbr02&year=2025&t=p. I am wondering where all these stats that he had a 6.00 ERA or something last 20 games are coming from? Is it starting at the 3 run game in LA. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=littlbr02&t=p&year=2025 Guy gave up 2 homeruns all year in 78 appearances. Walked way too many. Unfortunately he gave up the third homerun last night. Thinking probably was just that he has lowest homer rate, so put him in to avoid a solo shot. 3rd pitch solo shot ofcourse. Hoffman gave up 15 homeruns all year so wouldn't have been thrilled with him their either. I guess Dominquez would have been the right decision. I put some of this on the front office and the high (a.k.a. low) performance team. Difference in the series may end up being that the Mariners have a great shut-down bullpen right now. Mariners have kept Munoz healthy since 2022 and developed a couple of other guys. Jays have not kept their guy (Romano) healthy and failed to develop other options. Hoffman may not be exactly healthy either based on his numbers and whispers of shoulder issues.

IKF in. Santander out. Presumably Santander has back issues. Other options Disable him for Loperfido Straw Schneider Disable him for Bo who may have made more progress since Saturday. Disable Santander for France Disable Santander for R.J. Schreck (on 40 man? if not put Santander on 60 day since he would be out for WS anyway). Disable Santander for Classe Catch Heineman and Kirk DH Who likes IKF better than any of the above? Are they keeping some options ready in case they have to disable Santander?

80 hit tool. Vladimir Guerrero Jr, Luis Arraez, Ernie Clement. 80 hit tool with 70 power and 65 plate discipline, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 80 hit tool with 80 defense - Ernie Clement.