Olerud363.354

I think they'll give him every chance to work things out. He was their best reliever by fWAR. Probably make the team and get a month to work things out and if he doesn't he'll work on it in Buffalo.

2005 was amazing -- Burnette, B.J. Ryan, Glauss, Overbay maybe forgetting a couple. The 2006 team played great just messed up short stop and for some reason their offense was inefficient. They scored 800 runs with stats that should have led to 900 2012 - track team and ancient knuckle baller. Not the greatest really. 2014/2015 - Donaldson, Estrada, Russell Martin, Devon Travis, Justin Smoak, Michael Saunders -- pretty incredible group

I think there could be benefit (or a disadvantage) depending which way interest rates sway. They buy the bond every year so if interest rates go up, the price of the bond goes down and they have some extra present day money. If interest rates go down the opposite. If there was ever dramatic interest rate changes (which there will be) team could get a bit screwed on this. 10 year interest rates historically have been as high as 15% and as low as less than 1%. When Ohtani signed his contract they were about 4.5% and haven't changed much since then. I am curious what happens if the 10 year swings dramatically say there is a financial crisis and it goes to 0.5%. That would mean a 10 year bond that matures at 70 million could cost millions more, so practically speaking LA would have to pay more. Not sure if it would change luxury tax calculations too.

A Bichetteless/Tuckerless team had a pretty exciting run and made Rogers a tonne of money by first getting homefield advantage then playing almost every playoff homegame. Ohtani was unique but business case for anyone else is just wins and deep playoff runs, so any means that gets that will be a good business case.

My understanding is this is how it works LA buys a 50 million dollar bond that will mature at 70 million in 2035 and set it aside for Ohtani. If Ohtani for some reason needed the money right now I suspect he could get it (not 70 million but whatever the bond is worth today). Interesting thing is a team could get a bit screwed if interest rates go way down. If there is a crypto/AI crisis and they lower the rates to almost 0, LA then has to pay almost 70 million for the bond (that is my understanding anyway).

Am I missing something still? Deferrals aren't like some huge benefit to the team. They still have to buy a bond that basically matures when the money is due. Hit to the cap is the present day value of the bond. Actually not sure how you would even stop deferals. Because they aren't what people are thinking they are. If Kyle Tucker want to be paid in bonds that mature in 2038 that's up to him and the team. What people think the deferred money is (team doesn't pay until 10 years later) is already banned. Otherwise a team like Florida could sign huge contracts, go bankrupt, and never pay.

Seems though they adjust everything to compensate for that. I live in the U.S. and my stubhub auto-converts to American. The prices for Toronto games are just as expensive. Everything you buy at the stadium is pretty much adjusted for the dollar. Also suspicious of NY Mets numbers. No way they are that far behind Philadelphia. Biggest problem with Toronto isn't the dollar but the fall-off in interest in bad years. I have a lot of friends who are Mets fans so they are like my second team. Mets attendance and interest is much more resilient to strings of 70 win seasons (like 2009 to 2014) than Jays. If winning years Jays have to be top 3 in revenue with Yankees and Dodgers. Maybe 2024 numbers were crunched by losing, but it's ussually the 2nd and especially third losing season where Jays lose half their attendance.

There must be something else weird about that chart. I know it was 2024 but how are Toronto's revenues about the same as Baltimore? Is it because they don't get "TV Renenue" since Rogers owns the team? So that (and maybe other) of their profits are in Rogers books but not the Jays?

He was being compared to Pedro Martinez through 2015. Kind of dumb in retrospect but his 2014 was similar to Pedro's 1994 and his September 2015 and playoffs were great. The size, the swagger, the reports on how good his stuff was.... Not saying any serious scouts compared him to Pedro, but just heard some comments 'reminds me of another undersized fiesty pitcher' a few times. In 2014 he gave up only 7 homers in 130 innings, great walk rate. 2.84 FIP. 3.17 xFIP. In 2015 he had a lucky 1.64 ERA and was 4-0 down the stretch beating the Yankees in a couple of key games. Just that October 2015 he looked like something special. Then it turned out he was decent but not special and had some attitude problem or something.

He was the third starter in the World Series. Pitched critical games 3 and 7 which were both losses. Did not go 5 innings in either one. On the other hand wasn't horrible. Left both games with the lead I believe. In an ideal world want a better closer, better third starter and better second hitter. Doesn't mean Max Scherzer, Jeff Hoffman or Nathan Lukes can't be part of a world series team, just that maybe really crazy to give them so high a percentage of the most critical innings and at bats in a generation.

If confused by my last post watch the documentary. Corrupt Quebec politicians saying they won't help fund stadium for millionaire baseball players when babies need medicine or something. But much more goes into Big O roof repairs. Anyone live in Montreal? Excited for 2028 and the new roof? God. Could have had a downtown stadium and the Rays for that 870 million.

Watched the 'Who killed the Montreal Expos' documentary and it was the stadium that killed them and ironically the stadium is still killing any chance of a team playing there even for a year. Like Rays could have played there this past season, but they were doing a 870 million roof renovation which will take four years. So Expos in 2000 or so tried to fund a 200 million baseball only beauty. And the politicians would have none of it because they couldn't justify helping fund this when baby's need medicine and such. That is fine. If that is your values. But it's complete ********. How much have they put into Olympic Statdium over the years? Like one roof patch of big O probably costed as much as downtown outdoor stadium. So Billlions with a B wasted on it over the years. It is insane. They wouldn't build a nice baseball only downtown thing, Pittsburgh style, but will continually waste money on the big O. 1. 200 million in 2000 for downtown Montreal Gem 2. Stop funding any maintenance to big O and probably over the years save 1 billion. 3. Use the difference to save the babies and get them medicine. 4. Have baseball and saved babies. But current strategy they presumably killed a lot of baby's because they used their medicine money fixing big O Just everything that is wrong with our society.... and don't get me wrong, if the people want to feed the baby's instead of downtown stadium... absolutely fine. BUt then don't fund any Big O maintenance if those are your values.

Absolutely. In reality every single thing would be different. However you are right, IKF was 5 for 15 in the ALCS with a hit just in front of Springers homer. Hypothetically if every other event was the same (which it wouldn't be but I digress) then replacing IKF with Biggio in that ALCS they probably lose. Replacing IKF with Biggio in the World Series they probably win. Going forward all you can do is try to maximize the run differential and fix some of the little things on the margins (the IKF role would ideally be a better baserunner).

IKF also made an error that led to an un-earned run in game 3 ALDS. He makes that play more than likely that whole game is different, with Bieber having a chill first, may not get in trouble a couple innings later in that game... the bullpen is more rested going into ALCS, win one of the games early in the series, bullpen and starters more rested going in to WS. Literally it all is IKFs fault. Jays win World Series in 6 without him, but maybe have less revenue (2 less home playoff games if win ALCS in 6 and WS in 6). IKF made a bit of a baserunning error in game 3 WS too. No one is perfect but does get me thinking what if it's Leo Giminez, or even Cavan Biggio in that spot. Every else stays the same Cavan Biggio is a foot further ahead in the 9th inning of game 7.... Obviously maybe Biggio, or Giminez or who-ever does something else dumb and everything bufferfly different

Exactly. Hoffman gave up an insane number of homers in 2025. His numbers for a closer were awful. The logic that 'his previous 10 innings were good so give him a break here' isn't quite right, especially since few of those innings were in leverage. Some reasons Jays lost game 7 were Hoffman, lack of reliable setup man, relatively weak hitter for a 2 hitter, weak hitting bench options who were subbed late in game, and 2 of their 3 best hitters were injured. Those are the reasons. Even with all that they were an inch a way from winning that game. No team perfect and it's game of wack-a-mole. You could address all this get 2 great relievers and hit Tucker second, and better hitters on the bench then lose a fluke early round series anyway....

The only time he came in a close game was game 7 ALCS, so likely any other reliever subs for Hoffman they still make the World Series. I mean certainly a different guy might have blown game 7 ALCS on the other a different closer might have saved both game 7s. I get that he was good in the playoffs. However only 2 save opportunities of which he converted 1. I don't think this is black and white. What do you consider? Hoffman's last appearance? Last 10? The entire year's worth of work? Can't do anything about the past, but what do you consider going forward? Guy gives up most homers for a reliever in baseball, gives up homer in most critical inning in 30 years. Do we consider the 15 homers in regular season? Or just last 10 games? When evaluating his role.

Guy that hits the ball 440 feet off Ohtani doesn't seem like he would have 12th percentile bat speed. Squares it up a lot, but how do you hit it 440 feet with 12th percentile bat speed? https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/bo-bichette-666182?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb Maybe the bat speed thing is biased somehow. I guess must have different speed of swing as his Ohtani homer was 79 mph compared to a reported average of 69.

Bo Bichette apparently has 12th percentile bat speed, 1 percentile range, 21 percentile speed and 36 percentile arm, 12th percentile chase yet must do something else well. I bet Jose Ramirez had awful statcast first couple of years to. Maybe Holiday will do what Bichette or Ramirez do.

I'll admit I'm nitpicking, and you are right Haladay's tools are pretty lame.... but twice as good by WAR is less meaningful 2-1 then it is 8-4. In the limit of that framework some guy with 0.2 WAR is infiinitely better than someone with 0 WAR. Need to use "wins above nothing" for the ratio to be meaningful. For some reason Witt's age 22 season he had a .314 xwOBA and Holliday a .312 xwOBA about the same. Their expected hitting, defense was similar. Witt's advantage was all baserunning. I do see Halladay's tools are blue... so not sure how their xwOBAs (2022 and 2025) ended up so close.

Jackson Holliday's age 21 season is pretty similar to Bobby Witt Jrs age 22 season. Witt was better, but just a bit. A lot of development left here.

The Orioles delusional optimists (like myself) probably deserve some ribbing... (never a fanboy just thought they collected so many young players they couldn't fail). However c'mon https://www.thebanner.com/sports/orioles-mlb/orioles-colton-cowser-broken-ribs-injuries-N7F4QE72M5GHHHTYSOPJYX5DIQ/ Guy was injured, just like Bichette in 2024. This whole... 'never realized that so and so was -1 WAR and completely sucks at the age of 25 lol. Orioles done' is stupid. A lot of guys were injured, maybe some randomly under-performed. Regression to the mean is a thing, even with a team you dislike.

On the topic of Orioles one fascinating thing is how similar Kirk and Rutschman's lifetime stats are to each other. Even their "good" and "bad" seasons are kind of similar. Both are like 15 fWAR lifetime. Kirk fatter still, shorter and a year younger. There was like a moment when Rutchman looked fit, healthy, performing, able to DH when not catching, and Kirk looked like a .250 hitting obese noodle struggling to play 100 games a year. That was like 12 months ago. Now they look they same career-stats wise but with a Kirk at a high point.

This is just as dumb, or actually dumber then anointing Elias a genius in the midst of a 102 win season. Elias collected a lot of talent, the talent under-performed. Guys like Henderson, Rutchman still have elite projections. Then they have tonne's of guys projected for like 2 WAR in 100 games and out of that collection some will over-perform so would not surprise me if they are right back in the middle of things next year. We will see... The one thing I predicted would happen that has not, and is running out of time to happen, is for the Orioles to get back to 3 million a year attendance. That was one of the reasons, remembering what the 90s were like, I thought the Orioles were in great shape for a long run of success. Get the attendance up, get the revenue up, re-invest, keep the wins up, keep the attendance up, re-invest. Jays have a good shot at that now. Critical year for both franchises to become a Red Sox/Phillies/Mets like organization with multi-generation (a generation being a group of players) that can be successful for a couple decades.

A big if, but if they were all healthy that is a good rotation. Just stats-scouting that they were all pretty good at times last couple of years but make between 4 and 20 starts. Critical year for them. One of the reasons I thought Orioles would have an extended run ;is that in the 90s they were similar to the Jays, in that they got a new ballpark, had some success and generated a tonne of money, then were a big payroll team and free-agent spender for a few years. Part of the extended success model would have been for them to build revenue, which last year destroyed that momentum. Instead the Jays had a magical year with insane revenue.

Anything can happen, especially if Grayson goes to the bullpen but I guess the medicals aren't clean on Rodriguez. This idea of medicals isn't black and white. Medicals aren't clean on Grayson, Hoffman and likely Bieber. Their value is down but it's all just very gray. Maybe using a closer without clean medicals will burn you, or maybe it won't. Maybe Bieber loves his friends, or maybe his arm hurts. Probably the medicals say Grayson is in for a rough road but isn't completely worthless, and the Angels will take the risk while the Orioles want to contend next year and get more certainty.