Olerud363.354

MLB in the modern times. It is just sign stealing figuring out what pitch is coming. That is it. That is all it is. If your teams system is working your team wins with joy and clutch hits and Colten Cowser becoming a hero. If your teams system is figured out and stopped there is no joy and Vladimir Guerrero Jr doesn't know what is coming so hits 5 homers on the season.

Number one thing that worries me is just the bizarre downturn in on base percentage and walks. I don't understand the game anymore. Orioles all of a sudden play Tampa and Jays, go 5-2 getting hits right when they need them. Basalo flapping his arms like Aaron Judge at second just before a big homer... Colten Cowser... f*** Colten Cowser. No one. Nothing. 1 homer. Power worse than Vlad. doomed. Orioles doomed. All is lost. Desperate. then mysteriously. May 24th - Colten Cowser - Out of nowhere walk off homer May 25th - Colten Cowser - Out of nowhere walk off homer again May 30th - Colten Cowser - key double at just the right time, like he knew, like they all new May 31st - Basalo flaps wings Colten Cowser 3 run homerun Basalo was just a decoy. The flapping was too over the top. Whatever they are really doing is more subtle. Orioles have a system. They turn it on and just the right time, like the Royals did in 2015. Don't risk getting caught, only use it in leverage... and to be honest another team in 2025 got a lot of hits at just the right time. That other team caught the attention of MLB and they figured it out and stopped, but no one knows how the Orioles are doing it. Expect a big run with Colten Cowser getting hits at just the right time until the MLB figures out what they are doing. Expect a big slump with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ending at .267 5 homers 52 rbis (155 games) unless the Jays get a new system.

I don't know if I buy that. The good prospects hit at every level. Does the adjustment get applied to everyone? Justin Gonzales, Red Sox 5ish prospect showed up 18 from the Dominican and was fine. However adjusted for cultural adjustments does this mean he actually deserves a .350 .450 .600 line. https://www.milb.com/player/justin-gonzales-821100 Cultural adjustment factor - it is very hard to come in from High School, Domincan, or College (if learning new swing) all minor prospects should be given 40% boost first year in professional ball. Doesn't help the Jays prospects though unless this is something unique to Jays organization. Justin Gonzales - .298 .380 .420 raw - .350 .450 .600 with cultural adjustment Juan Sanchez - .202 .299 .320 - .250 .360 .430 with cultural adjustment Still behind other teams prospects even with the CAF (Cultural adjustment factor).

Orioles hangout must be rocking. Imagine your generational hitter 21 year old Basallo takes a mighty swing, and looks like he f***ed his shoulder and season, maybe even career are over, and another horrible loss to the Blue Jays... But then a miracle. Win the game, turn around the season, and Basallo is just fine and is out stealing signs for another great Orioles victory the next morning. It is a harsh world and in many corners there is not joy, but at this moment there is joy in Orioles Hangout (I am not an Orioles fan and would never go there, and will always be here no matter how sad the vibes, but I do imagine that Disney World and Orioles Hangout are the two happiest places in the world right now)

Top 5 prospects and comparables 1. King - Randy Johnson 2. Perry - Garret Cole 3. Nimmalla - Miguel Tejada 4. Keys - Matt Olson 5. Jo Jo Parker - Cavan Biggio

Today's positive farm report Shane Bieber - rocked in low A Dunedin, but on the positive side... stuff looked great? Twitter says so kind of. I don't know. Jo Jo Parker - 0 for 4, 4 ks, such is life for a Cavan Biggio like player. Juan Sanchez - now over .200. actually positive considering he was .100 like a couple of weeks ago. Sean Keys - another homerun. 12 on the year. Max - 3 hitless or something ... this in Buffalo. Forearm felt great. King (last night) - 5 innings 8ks couple of walks - 32 innings 22 walks 47 ks Perry sort of rough outing for him. 4 innings 3 walks 4 ks.

Jays, Orioles, As, White Sox, Twins, Red Sox, Rangers, Astros. simple math is 2 spots 8 teams, 1 in 4 chance Jays get one. if you look at quality of teams boost it up a bit. 40% maybe. That is about what the projection systems say. After today's loss Jays are 42% or so to make playoffs. Not a coin flip. A little less. Life is tough. This season is tough. Not all the injured players will come back healthy, others will get injured. The bullpen has been overworked. It's a 40% chance. they make the playoffs. Could be worse. We all thought it would be better.

Hopefully, but neither Barger, nor Kirk have played in a rehab game yet and both keep getting pushed back. How do we know Barger won't end up needing Tommy John and Kirk another surgery if his first isn't healing. And Bieber just got roughed up in a-ball. I don't care if his stuff looked good or even measured good. Last year in his two rookie ball starts 4.1 innings 1 hit 1 walk 10 ks. Something seems off about the entire thing. He is facing the Jake Cook and Juan Sanchez's of the world, and as much as we love them they shouldn't get a hit off Bieber if he is right. We will see. I like to see things go smoothly and on schedule, when they don't you start wondering, life is cruel, life is harsh, it doesn't always work out.

Friends who are Philly fans don't seem to want him back... would Don Mattingly want a reunion?

He was 1-2 with an ERA of 40.50 in the 2024 NLDS. He had his moments but arguably lost them a playoff series. Actually pitched very well in the 2023 playoffs though.

Jake Cook 2/3 3 walks, up to .210 .360 .250 or something 15 walks 16ks or so. Not hitting like a guy with a new power swing, more like another Cavan Biggio. Along with Joe Joe Parker that is two Cavan's. Not an insult. Cavan was a fine player at times, disliked by some. These new Cavan's may be a bit faster, a bit stronger we will see. Will frustrate people when they put up .230 .350 .350 lines, but that will probably be worth a 120 OPS+ in 2029 MLB. Sanchez continues to make his numbers respectable too. Up to about .200 .300 .300. Sean Keys 3/4. .280 .407 .545 for the year. Is he the next Matt Olson? The guy we will talk about when bringing up guys who hit .220 for a year but still made it? Career average of .242 but plenty of time to increase it.

Was he talking about Vlad? I was very sad when in 1995 they dissed John Olerud just because he had single digit homeruns. I demand that the new John Olerud/Mark Grace type we have gets respect. I can't even figure out how Vlad's season so far is even possible. Apparently his chase rate is the worst it's been, but he hits .290 .390 .380 with 30 walks and 25 ks. His stats are the passive guy who is happy to go with the pitch. Professional hitter. Even Rance Mullinicks hit with more pop.

You absolutely can take minor league batting averages and cap future based on them. As long as you consider large samples, park factors, league factors, A guy hitting .230, in 1000 minor league at bats in leagues that hit .280 and entering a 1995-2010 offense level has no chance. A guy hitting .230, in 1000 minor league at bats in leagues that hit .230 and entering a 2026 offense level has a chance. The way to "win" this argument and "burn" me is to bring up the league offence factors in the 2026 American league and the minor league Arjun plays in, and point I am an old man just thinking 1996 numbers. That's the way you win the argument, not sample sizes of 70 at bats from George Springer.

To be clear, Tommy Pham does really pass the spirit of the test. Hit like s*** for like 1000 at bats, maybe more. But he rebounded quite well. He started to hit better every year, better at 22 then 21, better at 23. Tommy Pham worked hard. Hit better and better every year, so many years. Many years. So many years passed. But tommy never gave up. At age 22 he hit .like .290, and then again at age 25 I think. Some injuries but he kept working. Then Tommy had a miracle. By age 26 he was hitting .320 in the minors and finally got 2 plate appearances in the major leagues. Tommy never gave up. His slow start didn't stop him. At age 29 Tommy finally got like 2/3 of a major league season in. Will Arjun be like Tommy Pham? If so I guess we see him semi full time in the year 2035 along side 36 year old Vladdy. Looking forward to it.

Arjun - .230 average in 900 at bats, one stretch of 70 at bats hitting .300 Springer - .302 average in 1100 or so minor league at bats, one stretch of 70 at bats hitting .220 Ben Rice - .280 average in 900 or so minor league at bats, one stretch of 70 at bats hitting .197 Things Blue Jays Centre does not understand - sample size Here is the thing. As of yet no one has shown a player who hit below .250 in more than 500 at bats and succeeded in the majors. Tommy Pham is close. Hit .258 as a minor leaguer and only lost 2 points as a major leaguer .256

Now do the at bats Ben rice - hit like s*** for 66 at bats - minor league average regressed to .281 over 836 at bats George Springer - Hit .179 in like 20 at bats, then .316 next year in 433 at bats then the .219 later in the year in only 79 at bats. His average was like .300 almost for that time period and over his minor league career was .301 in 1139 at bats. Arjun has hit -- .233 over 900 at bats in the minor leagues. Blue Jays message board (a.k.a. Jays centre) - Davis Schneider's good split against right handers is meaningless because we have to regress it to 1500 league average at bats or something. Also Blue Jays Message Board - Arjun Nimmala's 900 at bats of .230 average is meaningless because George Springer hit .220 in 70 AA at bats at the end of a year he hit .300 overall. Crazy day at Jays Centre, a little more crazy than usual.

Kirk comes back. Jays need right handed hitting outfielder. Restore George Springer to part time twice a week right handed hitting outfielder and split catching between Kirk and BV evenly. Kirk gets 2 games a week at DH. Or something like this over 100 remaining games Kirk 50 catch, 35 DH 15 OFF BV 50 catch, 10 DH/1B 40 OFF Springer 60 DH 30 outfield 10 OFF Gets BV in there 60% of time, and Kirk DHing a lot makes him hit better keeps him fresh?

So if Arjun Nimmala played in the Pacific League of 2005 or the California league of 1996 or the Penn State League of 2014, just some better place in some better time, he wouldn't hit .230 with 13 homers, he'd hit .280 with 20 homers.

Of course someone has survived hitting .230 in the god-forsaken small s***** cities of America and gone on to hit .250 in MLB. Someone has and I do believe Arjun Nimmala will be the second to do that. Actually what he probably has going for him, what is probably messing me up, but not fooling the smarter people is this. In 1996 the American League averages was .279 or something, maybe some other year it was higher. In 2026 the American League average is .238. It was always known that in the really god-forsaken places, like the cess-pool that is Florida and in the heavy air and pot clouds on the Pacific coast that the level of offense, the average hitting line, was even lower then whatever it happened to be in the American League. I'm too lazy to look up but open to the possibility that the average hitter in these leagues Arjun is part of hits as Lenyn Sosa does in the American League, and Arjun is good compared to them.

Comparables as a 20 year old and outcome at baseball maturity (26-28) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - Comparable at 20 - Combination of his Father and Frank Thomas but better. Outcome at maturity - Eric Hosmer Arjun Nimmala - Comparable at 20 - Tommy Pham - outcome at maturity ??? Don't know yet.

Vlad/Bo/Kirk/Moreno era - prospects hit the s*** of the s***** towns across America and these guys do a combined .330 .400 .550 in the minors. Blue Jays message board (justifiably) excited. Arjun/Bonilla/Sanchez/Parker era - hit a combined .220 .300 .390. Blue Jays Central (formerly known as Blue Jays Message Board) just as excited because advanced stats good and young guys take a while to learn.

Obviously he is much improved now that he is a .300 hitter in double a. I agree if he kept that up for a few months you can move him up. Not to be a jerk about all this. But no blue jays prospect has hit in an exciting way, like a good prospect should hit since Gabriel Moreno when he .380 at aa before they broke his hand. They all hit .230 now or less.. but there are some complicated reasons we should still have hope... hope its true.

What star has ever hit .230 as a minor leaguer? Daulton Varsho hit .290 .360 .500 as a minor leaguer with a great k rate and look how that translated. Orelvis had a bad year at 20 but overall same as Arjun + more power. There is no player that his like Arjun has so far that has ever become a star. All three have high infield fly ball rates, low ground ball rates which makes them hit for a low average. Arjun will overcome this? Maybe.... it will be historic. First minor league .230 hitter to become a star.

They just did it with Yesavage. And it was a big risk. If he got hammered against the Royals or the Rays in September there is no playoff run and Yesavage comes into 2026 as the rookie they stupidly gave a Chris Bassett start to. I'm not advocating him as a swingman for a couple of months. What I am advocating is one or 2 four innings swingman appearances at a point of time where he is the best option using the following criteria - age 22.5 or older - approaching timepoint he needs to be 40 manned - stuff rated very high by fancy metrics and scouts - mentally strong - ability to show up for 3 weeks, give 3 semi-start like appearances 12 good innings, better then a 29 year old who played in Wichita last year would