Olerud363.354

Seems like this guy was a 3 WAR guy a couple of years but degraded so bad sent to minors. Where does he play?

I mean lots of teams have historically scored 800 or so runs without huge power. 1985/87 Cardinals, 1988 Red Sox. 1993 Blue Jays. If fact the 2026 Blue Jays will hit about the same number of homers as the 1993 Blue Jays and score 250 less runs. But if a team could hit .270 with a .350 on base they'd score runs. The argument is that you can't hit .270 as a team anymore because of defense, and shifts, and velocity and spin and AI scouting. The counter-argument is that you have some outliers with low bad speed that indicate maybe you could.

Is he Bo Bichette though or Russ Adams? What I mean is there are some guys who don't project to have elite short stop defense, but could do the job, as Bichette did for many years, their defense scores sort of neutral and they can still be a 5 WAR player, and not totally piss the pitchers off. Then there are guys like Russ Adams who was throwing that s*** into the stands 5 times a week, and just wasn't playable. I get the feeling Parker is the former since the talk is move him to 3rd. I don't know for sure though.

Ernie Clement minor league stats - https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=clemen000ern In 2019 at age 23 he had a .331 slugging. Saying someone will be the next Ernie Clement is like saying they'll be the next Jose Bautista, but it is useful as to ceilings for these types of players. Developing power for these guys, if they do is probably something like the Ernie Clement path and with walks and speed that's a fun player. That's not the likely outcome of course, but this board acts like there's never been a guy who went from 0 power, to playable power in the history of baseball.

Not entirely sure, but good question. If they can get the payroll down to a certain level, they potentially gain 10 spots in draft, get a bigger draft and international pool. Gausman I believe can't get qualifying offer, Varsho might just take it, Bieber eligible for one too I think, and also might take it. So hard to see them getting picks for any of those guys. If picks and international money is what you want trading them best. If you potentially want Varsho and Bieber for a run next year and would pay them 20 million each keeping them might be best.

Pretty common for players of all stripes to lose batting average and gain power as they progress. What gaining power means for guys who have 0 homeruns in full seasons I'm not entirely sure. If you start at 0 homeruns and increase by 5x you are still at zero. If you increase doubles by 2x and homeruns by 5x + 5 you are getting somewhere. Both Bateman and Southisene have raised their slugging percentages 100 points from last year. Admittedly they were starting at .300 and .280 or so. lol. But at least trendiing in the right direction.

A lot of the rankings and write-ups were pre-reason, when he was coming off of a .307 slugging percentage season. His numbers this year, at aaa, translate to 36 doubles 4 triples 6 homers 40 sb 120 walks over a full season.

The team is lacking in on base percentage, and he got 2 guys with a combined .400 on base percentage. I totally get that might not transition to the majors where pitchers have better control. The bat speed thing is weird though and I think it puts a wrinkle in evaluating guys like this. Lowest bat speed is Kwan, Arraez, Simpson, and Wilson. All outliers. All freaks. Combined average of .290 or something in MLB. None of those guys walk much, but if you could combine the low bat speed high average skill with some walks it could play.

And that was written before this year... .310 .430 .420 at triple a this year, so indeed some gap power is starting to show a bit.

Batemen had a hamate bone injury and slugged .307 last year. This year he's slugging .420. Hitting .310 .430 .420 in aaa.

Bateman played with Cubs manager Craig Counsell's son Brady at Minnesota, where he developed into one of the best contact hitters, fastest runners and top defenders in the 2023 college crop. But his utter lack of power affected his Draft stock, even after he batted .500 during a two-week stint in the Cape Cod League, and he dropped to Chicago in the eighth round. He overcame surgery on his right hamate last February to hit .261/.376/.307 at Double-A, ranking third in walk rate (15 percent) and sixth in on-base percentage. A left-handed hitter, Bateman rarely strays from the strike zone, rarely hits balls with authority and rarely lifts them in the air. He lacks strength and understands his limitations, so he focuses on reaching base by drilling grounders through holes in the defense and working walks. His approach comes at the expense of any power, and he's a career .315 slugger with three homers in 233 pro games. Bateman's game is built around his plus-plus speed, which he uses to beat out hits, steal bases and chase down balls from gap to gap in center field. A two-way player until he had elbow surgery following his freshman year with the Gophers, he has solid arm strength and has notched 22 assists in 223 starts in center. He has drawn comparisons to Orioles 2023 first-rounder Enrique Bradfield Jr. and Myles Straw.

On MLB list they are 13 and 21. Like 7 career homeruns between them.

Before that there are a few things to try 1. Swing reconstruction. 2. DL him more. Hit by pitch 10 days off. Back wonky 10 days off. Hamstrings cramping 10 days off. Try 130 healthy games a year. 3. Load manage him. Treat him Barry Bonds style. 4. DH him way more if not all the time. 5. Completely new manager and coaching staff. 6. Get him off Ozempic(if he's on it) and back to keeping wait down by crazy fitness routine. 7. Pump more iron. 8. Legal prescriptions for amphetimines (ADD meds) probably 5-7 years to cycle through all this.

Varsho .296 .365 .519 minors, .229 .297 .423 majors Even the guys that suck hit for higher averages then you'd think in the minors. Nimmala is going to be awesome, because he hits the ball 110 mph, his .230 average will get way higher in double and triple a. He is going to be a +20 short stop. And he hits the ball 420 feet oppo regularly (I've seen him do it in the minors). That's the positive story. The risk is he should be smashing balls through minor league defenses and he isn't which could indicate a swing path or popup issue or something. Put the two together and 40 seems about right.

Hardy .271 .336 .402 minors, .256 .305 .408 majors Giminez .280 .354 .416 minors .251` .312 .378 majors Will Adames .270 .365 .415 minors .242 .318 .438 majors The trend for lots of guys is they lose about 20-30 points of batting average but slugging stays the same so that puts Nimalla at .215 .300 .430 or so, which could actually play if his defense is good. He is going to be the next Daulton Varsho I bet. I think he is a big pop-up guy like Varsho.

He'll be the next Andres Giminez but with a bit more pop but a bit less batting average and speed.

But Bichette hit .360 as a 19 year old across 2 levels and had a career minor league average of .320. There AA stats are pretty close actually, but Nimmala's is only 117 at bats and their career minor league battings average are 90 points apart. There is noise year to year and but career minor numbers are usually pretty reliable.

Both Rainer and Jo Jo Parker have a career on base percentage 50 points higher than Nimmala. He's under-rated only if you believe he's the 1 our 100 that is going to hit 20 points higher in the majors then the minors. It's been debated here a lot, and there are some arguments in his favor. There is also the chance he loses some average in the majors (like everyone) and hits .220. So the range of outcomes are cooked into the ranking and he's where he should be. Not like he's 150th. Not like the outcome where he hits .250 .350 .450 in the majors, while possible is so likely he should be top 10.

What to do.... I think it depends on today If they are 4.5 games back 5:00 pm today - trade everyone and aim for 2029 If they are 3.5 games back 5:00 pm today - hold steady. Springer, Gaussman goodbye tour, end of era tour. If they are 2.5 games back 5:00 pm today - become buyers. -

I think the compromise there is just to demand players that could help win in the next three years, and if the other team says no, so be it. Just establish that your selling them a playoff run this year for a playoff run in a future year, otherwise no deal. f*** this trading for a teams #14 prospect. No. You can take your top prospect off the table, everyone else is on the table, or else we just ride. The complication I suppose if the Jays want to get below a competitive tax threshold. I heard they could lose 10 spots in the draft or something? Unless top 6? Is that true. We all know the Jays are destined to finish 3rd last, but lose the lottery so pick 7th, then get dropped 10 spots to 17. ... sigh...

Playoff odds go from 56% to 7.5% in 3 weeks negative nancies have mental break down and punch window out, some stitches needed, positive pete's grudgingly admit playoff odds below 10 is a tough one. Playoff odds go from 7.5% to 7.8% in 3 days, negative nancies and positive petes all back on the bandwagon and feeling good. 7.8% is halfway to 15.6% is haflway to 31.2% is halfway to 62.4 % which is better then even odds.

When the 2023 Angels were in this situation did they give up? Hell no. When Donald J. Trump was impeached twice and convicted of felonies like 100 times did he give up? Hell no When Vlad started hitting like Josh Kasevitch's 30th percentile projection, when Bieber and Yesavage started walking 5 or so an inning some starts, when Ernie Clement lost his defense, when Barger lost his elbow, and when Gausman and Springer sold their houses and packed their luggage did Ross Atkins give up? I'd like to say hell no. Tell Gausman and Springer too bad you sold your house losers, but the Toronto Blue Jays do not give up. * DJT example not political just an example of not giving up and how sometimes it works out., though the 2023 Angles are a counter-example as to how sometimes not giving up doesn't work out.

that simply requires a few guys to return to career norms... Vlad obviously and you have a hall of fame bat right there. Springer/Kirk not hall of fame level but good enough if at career norms.... We have like 3 number 2 starters if they play at their talent level....