Olerud363.354

Jays hitting coach - line drive, hit for average, no k - Vlad Guerrero Jr. becomes like 2021 version of Ty France. Mariners hitting coach - hit ball far, hit ball high, k OK - Cal Raleigh becomes 1961 Roger Maris. Just kind of joking. No real dislike of Jays hitting philosophy. Just that offense is offense no matter how it's generated. Any type of offense can be shut down or appear awesome in a short series.

Can't remember if you were on the old board but Grant's 'Mariners are bad' thing has been going on for several years. It's pretty unbelievable and no idea where or why he hates the Mariners. When adjusted for park Mariners are second best offense behind Yankees. It's close enough that I wonder if they are just as good as Yankees when replacing Tellez and their former 3rd basemen with Naylor and Saurez. Grant is right that Mariners pitching isn't quite as good as the ERAs would have you believe, because the park is an extreme pitchers park. It's hilarious though that he uses the park factor when evaluating their pitchers but not their hitters. OMG! Mariners scored only 760 runs with .244 average and 240 homeruns. They are horrible. Adjusting for park factor, and weighting Naylor and Saurez in there Seattle's current collection of position players are probably a .255 hitting team with 800+ runs and 270 homers. A better offense then Toronto, but without the 'proffesional hitter/play the game right' vibe. Not that there is anything wrong with hitting .270 as a team and scoring 800 runs that way. Just that it is no better/no worse than scoring 800 runs the power way... and lady luck can strike either type of team down over a short series. Maybe Yankees should recruit Seattle's hitting coach instead of ours.

This is why baseball is the hardest sport to follow. So much luck. And the losses are often the same, just a game where unlucky things happen. Like last night in the first inning if Vlad's line drive is in the gap completely different game. Of he gets 3 degrees more launch angle on it. Or 3 degrees less. I remember the 2016 game 1. Which was literally the same game with a similar vibe to the first inning and the sixth. Edwin hit a 400 foot flyball off the wall and Donaldson couldn't score from first. That ball a bit higher different game. Lindor hit's his flyball a bit farther in the 6th. So much of this s*** is just the hard hit ball finding or not finding the glove. Or a couple of balls hit at slightly different launch angles decides it.

Crazy that the last 3 ALCS openers the Jays have been played in have been the exact same game. THE EXACT SAME GAME. The most inspirational team fans have seen in a generation gets a good matchup and the offense is dickless, lifeless, useless and drains all the energy and good vibes. October 16th 2015 -5-0 Royals. 3 hits. After bat flip game. Well maybe they were tired after inspirational bat flip. Well Seattle wasn't tired after 15 inning crazy game. Oct 14th 2016 - 2-0 Indians This after 4 days off to line everything up. Lindor homer in 6th. Oct 12th 2025 3-1 Mariners. Big Dumber #62. Big Dumper always kills the Jays. Game 1 of the ALCS is always the same. Maybe all of life and the Universe is just a lazy simulation designed to inflect maximum pain and just repeats the patterns. What will today bring?

I predicted Vlad would get released by the Blue Jays but win multiple triple crowns with the Red Sox. I think I predicted he'd he .350 54 140 or something for the Red Sox after getting released by the Blue Jays. At the time he had a 0.2 WAR in August of 2023 or something. There also seems to have been a time when he had a 60% ground ball rate after 100 PAs (in 2020 I think). I learned all this from the 'Send Vlad to Indy Ball' thread which I did not bump because such a monstrosity should remain hidden from this new and better version of the message board. I think I always believed in Vlad but not the Shatkins high (a.k.a. low) performance team. I apologize to Mark Shapiro, Ross Atkins, the Blue Jays high (not low) performance team and any other employees of Rogers Communications that I may have insulted. I believe the high (not low) performance team has been focused on getting the most out of Ernie Clement and Nate Lukes and their 3rd percentile exit velocities and have only recently moved on to getting the most out of Vlad and his 99th percentile exit velocities. Based on what they did with Ernie Vlad will be getting many triple crowns and even sextuple crowns (runs, rbis, hrs, avg, obp, and slg). Sorry to all I insulted, and also sorry to Vlad that I implied you would get released, but even when I said you would get released I also said you'd get a triple crown the next year for Boston.

Vlad might be ... a bit better through age 26? I think comparison with Cabrera is similar. And they all crush Ortiz through age 26 of course because he was a mediocre platoon player for the Twins. The 30 point drop in batting average between 1996 and 2025 makes stat-lines look so much different.

I asked Chat to translate Vlad's stats to 90s levels. Looks like a decent approximation but haven't checked it over deeply. In wRC+ and fWAR he his close to Manny through age 26 and that seems wrong at first glance of stats, but adjusting stats to 90s levels makes Vlad look awesome. Got it — here’s Vlad Jr’s stats adjusted to 1990s levels (AVG + .015, OBP + .020, SLG × 1.10, HR × 1.20, RBI × 1.20). Year AVG HR RBI OBP SLG 2019 .287 18 83 .359 .476 2020 .277 11 42 .349 .508 2021 .326 58 138 .421 .661 2022 .289 38 114 .359 .528 2023 .279 31 113 .365 .489 2024 .338 36 124 .416 .598 2025 .307 28 101 .383 .535

I think you can say that the tool should lead to an outcome. Under narrow definition 'hit tool' leads to batting average (with power tool and plate discipline tool leading to other outcomes) we have enough data for Arraez and Vlad to say their in game 'hit tool' is 80 for Arraez 65/70 for Vlad. Vlad's power tool is around 65 too, and plate discipline tool about that too. Where an 80/80/80 would be mid 90s Frank Thomas. Arraez is like an 80/30/30 or something. Thing I am curious about is whether the limitation is inherent, like his hand eye coorrdination and body control is 98th percentile not 99.9. Or if the next 5 years will be incredible as he finally makes the small mechanical tweak that unlocks the beast. I think Manny Ramirez, Gary Sheffield, Big Papi, Cabrera actually all took it to the next level age 27-33. It's a bit hidden because of offense levels. Ramirez, Cabrera were maybe 145 wRC+ until age 26. Then like 165 age 27-33.

I am sure the Blue Jays high performance analytics team is having the same conversation as Big_Walleye started, but with better data and better professionalism. A bunch of them are talking the same things on their slack but way better data and communication skills.

But it is hard to get a .320 average with a 50% ground ball rate (also hard to do it with a 25% ground ball rate ie Daulton Varsho). Luis Arraez career launch angle is 12% and launch angle sweet spot percentage is 40%, Vlad's is 7.8% and 33%, Varshos is like 20% launch angle and 30%. If one defines 80 hit tool "in game" as a .320 average, top 3 in baseball, batting titles, best in a generation franchise, which I think is reasonable, then can't get there without a good launch angle sweet spot. 80 as a tool may be the hand eye coordination to potentially get there. Which is why Vlad so far I would say is 65 in game with 80 potential and still time to get there.

Just incredible watching him over those four games. At his best he can do what Bautista did but mix in opposite field singles on tough pitches. He mixed elite exit velocity, a good eye, and good launch angle and hit to all fields. Love that in game one he pulled a 365 fly ball which would have been a routine out if hit to center, Then also hit several opposite field singles. 80 hit tool in the ALDS.

Wasn't too long ago, maybe even 3 weeks ago that the narrative was that hitting for average and contact wouldn't work in the 2020s during the season because of the shift and wouldn't work in the playoffs because it's too hard to string 3 hits together. Last night no homers and strung together multiple hits with other contact (sac fly, the Chisholm error). Then several other multi-run rallies without homers in game 1, 2, and 3. That being said Jays hit for good power in the series too, and no one way is ever better than another for same amount of runs scored. Like if you consider an 800 run offense one built on a .265 average and contact, and another on 250 homers both will be as good in the playoffs. Just go back to 2021 Atlanta Braves. Same runs scored in regular season as 2025 Jays. Won world series with Adam Duvall and Joc Pederson and Darby Swanson (Freddie Freeman too) forming a .245 240 homer team.

The great Aaron Boone said recently don't root for other teams because you might be rooting for the wrong thing. So no idea really. Detroit seems an easier matchup, but who knows. Interestingly Seattle has a tick below average pitching I think and close to Yankees level offense if adjusting for park. They play in the best pitchers park in the AL which makes their hitters look much worse I just checked out J-Rod and Raleigh's lifetime home/road stats. Mind blowing. Your dealing with two first ballot hall of famers that are getting screwed by their park. First Julio Now check out Raleigh Or check out Luis Castillo 2025 home road... Castillo is actually Berrios but know one knows it...

Absolutely. For a few few years I mocked the high a.k.a. "low" performance team when everyone was underperforming. Now you have Clement, Barger, Lukes, Schneider and Straw at 10 fWAR basically for 3 positions. Heineman too. So the development of mostly older relatively unheralded guys has been incredible. Rejuvination of Springer incredible too. Lot's of good stories on the pitching side too.

Yeah. If we lost 3-1 last night with Beiber going 6 and Fluharty Nance pitching clean innings we'd be excited to see a fresh Varland opening and the board would have half the activity it does.

It was a big deal. Went from 98% chance of winning series (when up 6-1) to 65% in about an hour. Felt like this after game 2 against Kansas city in 2015 when Ryan Goins dropped a popup in a similar situation as last night. I think in that case Jays chances went from almost 50% of winning series (up 3-0 7th down 1-0 in series) to about 15% in 30 minutes. Fans are pretty good at sensing the big probability drops, even if not looking at the numbers, so no surprise a lot of people are feeling bad.

Also wonder about Schneider left field/IKF second, vs Straw left/Schneider second. You could argue the latter and the two errors don't happen. The first just because of the fact it was a pretty routine play, and if Schneider at second he doesn't do the same thing (maybe he misses something else...). Straw makes the catch in left.

Lauer was decent this year and has a track record of being decent in 2021 and 2022 as well. According to fangraphs Lauer has a lower expected ERA. According to the radar gun Lauer throws 90 and Schlittler 99. According to the Boston Red Sox Schlittler does 99 with pin point control and can do it for 8 innings. I don't really know how good Schlittler really is. Maybe Red Sox just suck. Maybe the pin point control was one night only.

I remember David Price went on short rest game 4 of LDS 2015. You had Dickey (risky as a bullpen day) work out, then (perhaps irrationally) Gibbons went to Price, then Stroman for game 5. In that case the HAD to win both. Yesivage would be on 4 days rest Friday. So options are 1. Gausman 3 days rest sometime tonight, Yesivage Friday on 4 days rest (if needed) 2. Neither today. Gausman 5 days rest Friday (if necessary). Yesivage avialble. 3. Neither today. Yesivage 4 days rest Friday (if necessary). Gausman available. 4. Both today 1 inning. Both available 4 innings Friday (if necessary). Guess part of it depends whether Varland and Lauer get rocked or not...

So then what happens Friday? If bad where does up 2-0 with 6-1 lead in game 3 rank among the great collapses in playoff history? Up 6-1 mid third of of game 3 jays had what 98% chance of winning the series? I guess their chances of winning series went from 98% to maybe 65% (if you give NY big edge tonight) in an hour? What is worse? A game where chances go from 50% to 0%? Or 3 innings where it goes from 98% to 65%? I think for some people the latter is worse. Something that is a sure thing disappears and if you are prone to getting bad vibes about momentum if feels like it is gone. 50% to 0% is just like the coin flip didn't work out this time....

Hoffman. Who cares if he is used or not. Gausman Yesivage is the bigger question. How do you make sure you use both for at least 5 innings each (if going good) over next 2 games? Both were less than 80 pitches last start. Do you go to Gausman today if Jays get lead? What about Yesivage? Any chance one or both could pitch an inning today and still 4 or 5 innings if needed Friday?

I get that the homerun was a bit of a freak hit by a freak on an inside fastball. However Fox pointed out Judge had a great swing on the pitch before. And Varland went inside but the pitch was the same height and Judge was looking for it. Maybe he did have signs relayed from second. Kirk doing something to give it away?

He pitched 200 innings in 2019 and 2022. His k-rate has gone down a lot since his CY. Just not the start you want from the deadline acquisition handed a 6-1 lead and a quiet crowd . Varland too. Not the relief appearance you want from the deadline acquisition handed a 6-3 lead. Hopefully today is better, but no way to sugar coat this, deadline acquisitions failed spectacularly.

The more playoff games the better for the franchise. Every playoff game is a lot of revenue, gives the franchise more cred. Making it to an ALCS is huge even if you lose. Making it to a World Series even bigger even if you lose. Like wouldn't it be great to have baseball this Sunday... how could you think it would be worse to have a game at Rogers Center to look forward to over Thanksgiving, even if a doomed and futile mission, then not having Thanksgiving games? When I was like a little kid in 85 I cried watching the ALCS on black and white TV. A little older in 89 and 91 almost burnt every blue jays shirt I had. In 2015 and 2016 as a grown middle aged man I rage posted on the board before this one. Even though I was emotionally damaged every time and still maybe not recovered from ALCS losses still would rather have made it to ALCS then lost to Baltimore in 89 or 16... or not had the bat flip. Would have been more damaged by earlier losses.

Is Bieber's stuff back? Is he 2022 Bieber? Seems like his k-rate was insane 2019-2020. Are those days gone forever? What is possible from a guy who has rested 10 days and may get 8 more off if he wins?