Olerud363.354

Parker is hitting about the same as Vlad and Bo did on balls in play. He hits the ball hard, just like they did, but hits .240 because he strikes out a lot more than they did. It's hard to hit .300 .400 .500 and have bad underlying stats. It doesn't happen. Either you hit .300 .400 .500 because you hit the ball hard and take balls, or because you have elite hand eye and contact rates with mediocre exit V. Or somewhere in between. Kevin McGonigle sucks at hitting the ball hard, the information you need to know about is in his .300 .400 .500.

Paul Dejong was sort of like Biggio but more tools I guess. College guy, who was pretty intriguing but never put it together. I feel like good outcome for Nimmala and Parker are Dejong and Biggio but with an earlier start, more athleticism and a longer good stretch. Don't mean that as an insult. Jays 50 question. Who are the top 5 position players the Blue Jays have drafted or signed? Top 5 WAR for all teams they played for. Probably missing someone obvious. 1. Olerud 58 fWAR - 2. Jeff Kent? 50 fWAR - 2. Delgado 45 fWAR - 3 Fernandex 40ish fWAR ? 4 Wells/Barfield ??

We are not talking about a random stretch. We are talking about the first 6 weeks when that is all the data you have. Two different statistical problems 1. If a guy hits bad for 100 at bats, after having 500 good ones how do you project his next 500 at bats? Use the 600 you now have. 2. If a guy hits bad for 100 at bats how do you project his next 500 if you only have those bad 100? Use the bad 100 with high variance of course. Let's say there is a 10% chance a guy sucks randomly for a 100 at bat stretch. If you all you have is 100 bad at bats there is a 10% chance it was a fluke but a 90% chance it is real. If you have 1000 at bats, there is very likely a bad 100 in there.

Sell everyone not here for 2028 too. Including Rogers (here for 2028 but assume no 2027). Sell Straw. Sell the friendship. Sell the memories. Sell it all. It's sad and brutal but such is life.

They are 6th of 7th in a 7 team race with a 10% chance of making the playoffs according to playoff odds. You can do this on a napkin. If all was even 1/7 chance, but it's not even they are already in the hole with only 65 games to go. So knock a bit off the 1/7 and make 1/10. This is completely different then 2.5 games behind one team. Sell early. Get as much as you can. Get Davis Schneider on a team that appreciates him, get Ernie Clement on a team where he can have fun, get Hoffman a fresh start. Get Gausman some playoff starts. Get Springer another chance at a legacy moment. Get the Red Sox and Orioles some help and hope for a lock out for a reset, see you in 2028.

Always reminds me of Austin Martin. If a guy falls it is because the other teams scouting reports weren't good so adjust expectations accordingly.

I guess the formula assumes direction is random. 350 foot 95 mile per hour pulled fly balls, while valuable in real life, are not valuable in the formula because it is assumed it is not repeatable. Vlad's 106 mph 390 foot fly balls to center with bad spin, while worthless in real life are worth quite a bit, again because the formula assumes direction is random. For the most part the formula is right and it evens out, but I think there are real cases of directionally challenged or directionally talented individuals. It's not a huge effect but there are cases where guys out-perform or under-perform because of direction.

Discussing the rules about politics is not politics. I think we should use the all star break to have a 4 day discussion about how to police the board for politics with examples of what is appropriate and not.

The rule should be simple. 1. No one is allowed to start a right wing political discussion, and comments about the latest latest alt-right philosophies are not allowed. In general we do not want politics on this fine message board. 2. The only exception is If a long time board member starts a left-wing political discussion with off-hand comments about parades or boosters then politics has been opened, in that case politics will be considered fair-game and the alt-right posters are free to respond as much as they want. That would stop it, as the last thing the left leaning people want is a discussion to be started.

The other thing I've read, and guys on the board that have dabbled in college ball should know this, is that the stats don't tell too much until low a, because the breaking isn't good enough to fool guys. The scouts can't really tell if a guy can hit good breaking stuff. It's just an intrinsic hand eye thing. Swing can look great, bat speed can be elite, but maybe they have 95% percentile had eye and not 99%. It's like the real lesson in Money Ball. Billy Beane kept getting told he was elite, but after 3 at bats in a ball he realized his hand eye wasn't there and the scouts were full of s***. There are all kinds of shades of gray here, but right now no elite hitters in the Jays farm system. And you can tell this pretty quick with k/bb and even triple slash. I think even the most exciting prospects are Bradley Zimmer, Jake Marisnick, Paul Degjong, Cavan Biggio types, with the ceiling that they make it and have more good years then those guys, which actually would be OK players. So let's hope our Biggio's and Dejong's have 4-5 3 WAR years instead of 1.

This is where the board fails to understand statistics. A exciting prospect should have good age appropriate numbers for their level. Say .300 .400 .500 with decent k/bb ratio. A major league caliber player should be .250 .350 .450. I mean of course every situation is a bit different and there is random variation. If you take a sample of something and it is extreme, either you randomly took an extreme value, or the mean is different then you thought. If you take 150 samples and it is extreme there is a good chance the mean is different than you thought. If a guy hits .140 .190 .250 over 6 weeks with a 8 to 100 k/bb ratio you have a good idea the mean isn't .300 .400 .500. As in exciting prospect. If a guy hits .350 .450 .650 over 6 weeks you know he is probably good. If a guy hits .250 .350 .400 or so you don't know. It's the extremes that tell you information. Like .250 .350 .400 isn't really that good for an elite teen-age hitting prospect in a ball, but doesn't convey enough information to give up on him. Real bad stat lines do (there are exceptions of course). And the board loves find the exception that proves the rule. Like a bad stat-line give you 98% confidence the player is bad, but the board loves to find the 2 of 100 that were the exception. Sanchez isn't that bad. But not an exciting hitting prospect. Jays right now don't have an exciting hitting prospect and haven't since Moreno. They came up with one every year from 2017 to 2021.

Gaussman and Davis Schneider for Justin Gonzales?

Red Sox get a gift wrapped 9th win in a row. 14-2 I believe the last 16. Hilarious. They were already planning the fire sale and Chapman trade, but now will have to switch to a Gausman trade, who do we want? I think we should send Schneider their way to. He'll do good there and does not deserve to be stuck in Buffalo.

In other news Blaine Bullard starting to look good. .268 ..340 .423 .... 30-4 in steals. Is he the next Jake Marisnick ?

Sanchez has had another streak of 3 weeks where he hit .100 or something. Grand Slam last night I think but down to like .215 .285 .335 on the season even with the grand slam. Sadly he's probably not that good. Yes. He is only 18. So I of course there is lots of time. But 'not that good' as in like not Kirk/Moreno level. No one knows, not us, not the scouts, if a guy will tear through the system, fly up the BA charts, and arrive in Toronto at 21 providing lots of fun and dreaming on the way... based on College or dominican ball. You know after about 6 weeks of full season a-ball whether that will happen though.

He could get called up earlier then Yesivage. I would see him not as a full time starter like Yesivage, but as a 4 inning guy when needed, piggy back with Miles, deal with it when Yesivage walks 9 or Bieber giver up 5 homers but still tied 6-6. Main reason he won't get called up is they are just going to fall too far behind the Red Sox. I said IF they could stay within 1.5 of the Sox they MAY call him up. But could already be 2 behind today, and 8 or so behind by the time they even think about the call-up. No matter who you are in life the world kicks you in the nuts. Poor Grant.

? Even the most optimistic don't think a division is possible so have to get through ALWC first. Game 1 ALWC - 80-82 Blue Jays vs 83-79 White Sox at Comiskey - Cease obviously Game 2 ALWC - Yesevage I predict 2 game sweep - so no game 3 Game 1 ALDS - 80-82 Blue Jays vs 85-77 Rangers at Globe Life Tin Can - Miles/Perry piggy back if they are still functional.

In 2024 he had 10 saves and pitched 23 incredible innings in the 9th. Life time 4.7 ERA in 9th, 3.5 in 8th, 4.7 or so in 7th (hypothetically a few of the 7th innings could be as a starter, but I doubt he reached the 7th much as a starter). Career wise he is all over the place good and bad. His first crack as a reliever I think he had a 9ish ERA. The stats perhaps tell a story of a guy who has a true talent 3.5 ERA as a reliever and like anything in life it goes up and down and randomly. Or maybe a guy who has elite talent but loses it occasionally, but not entirely correlated with which inning he is pitching. The Baltimore Orioles medical reports tell the story of a guy with a sketchy shoulder, that maybe hurts randomly sometimes. Not sure which explanation is best, but there are explanations that fit better than 'inning pitched'. At times (23 innings in 2024) when going his best has been awesome in the 9th. Jeff Hoffman 2024 by inning, screenshot from basereference.com

The same logic here has to be used as when Bieber took his option. IE If it looks too good to be true there is more to the story. The guys stats look awesome with a great k/bb ratio. He is only 21 years old. However he only now has been moved to A+ ball. Often a guy who can catch and control the strike zone is really valuable. Stats-scouting he does look Joe-Maurish lite and looks way better then Valenzuela at the same age. You don't get a player that good for Tommy Nance though, so the scouting reports on defense, bat speed and such must not be great.

Yeah. Wokeism is like being very progressive, perhaps to the extreme, and 'calling out' is like 'you moron that is dumb'.

This is me from 10 years ago, a bit like Shrek and maybe even more so now... There are no politics on the board so please do not comment on my politic leanings. That is private or for different message boards. If he is healthy, and he pitches a couple of more good games in New Hampshire, and a couple of good games in Buffalo and the Blue Jays are 1.5 games back of the red hot Red Sox (basically tied with Twins, Mariners, As, Astros, Orioles chasing WC3) do you bring him up earlier than Yesavage so he can piggy back with Miles for the epic 8 way wild card race instead of Corbin? Or do you save him for last 2 weeks of season so he is a complete surprise the last week and the Wild Card Series if it happens?

Yeah... it's an interesting topic but it does not disadvantage or advantage disproportionately any market based on size. Instead of 50 million dollars for player X, they are spending 50 million dollars to buy a bond for player x. The team outputs the exact same amount of money that year, and all teams can do this. They do perhaps provide an advantage based on tax rate, it's a way for players to avoid paying California or Canadian taxes, In 10 years, when their "bond" matures they can collect the money in Texas.

That is a good comparable from the positive side. Started young, had one great season in his 20s, but awful seasons at age 26 and 30. Vlad walks more, but otherwise a good or bad Adrian Beltre season could be Vlad. Was a very good hitter in his 30s and even late 30s.

Closest I can think of is Kevin Mitchell. 47 homer guy with great power. Traded to Seattle. Hits like 9 homers and is useless. Goes to Cincinnatyi, hits like Albert Pujols for 3 years (albeit injured half the time) Mark Mcgwire. Hit .202 with .380 slugging at age 27 then hit .290 .450 .700 or some insane thing for 5 years. Mark Mcgwire yes. That is it. mark Mcqwire did it. Vlad can too. Vlad is arguably in a lower state (absolutely no power) then Mitchell and Mcgwire so will be tough to get back.

What players have deteriorated like this at age 27 and then came back for a few years? Can honestly not think of anyone. Name a player who was awesome at 21 and 25 then hit like this at age 27? He's on pace for 7 homers. This happens to some at 27, it happened to Willie Upshaw. It happened to Don Mattingly, it happened to Jayson Heyward. They became .260 hitters with .360 slugging in what should have been prime. Has anyone ever come back from this? Seriously. Mattingly got back up to .280 with 7 homers or something, but that is not coming back (he had a bad back too).