Brownie19

What is Max Fried going to get as a FA?

I think the reality is that guys who have power and don't strike out are just really good hitters and having really good hitters makes you a better ball club. It's not as simple as adding a bunch of high ISO, 30%+ K rate guys, nor can you just add a bunch of Ernie Clements. I can see it both ways. Those high K rate guys can be streaky and you just need them to get hot at right time and rip some homers. Instant offense with one swing of the bat can be huge. The downfall is the pitching is better in the playoffs, so that 30% K rate likely increases to 35-40% v. top pitching every night. If they don't get hot, they kill your chances of manufacturing runs and the swing and miss reduces the BABIP possibilities. On the flipside, if you have guys that put the ball in play, it gives you a chance for the BABIP god to shine down upon you. It also gives you the opportunity to manufacture some runs or score in errors and such. But again, that's harder to do v. top pitching every night and with this approach, you may still need to string together multiple hits to score runs (although perhaps the increased bases and resurgence of the SB will help counteract this?). I'm not sure there's one definitive answer...

Of interest: YEAR WS WINNER K% RANKING 2015 Kansas City 1st 2016 Chicago 15th 2017 Houston 1st 2018 Boston 3rd 2019 Washington 5th 2020 Los Angeles 3rd 2021 Atlanta 22nd 2022 Houston 2nd 2023 Texas 15th To be fair, he didn't say home runs weren't important or didn't matter. He said "In today's game, you have to be cognizant of strikeouts when you add power." Also says contact is "exceptionally important" in the playoffs, so "not as simple as plug in a power bat" unless they're versatile. I don't think there's any doubt that home runs play a bit role in the playoffs, but it's often about getting hot at the right time and hitting home runs at the right time. Maybe those big power, 30% K rate guys do give you a better shot of getting hot and going on a tear in the playoffs? Beats me, but I certainly wouldn't call that 'concrete evidence'.

That Detroit lineup is so gross. It's Green, Carpenter and a bunch of BUMS. The bottom 5 guys are all below (and in some cases WELL below) replacement level bats.

That is an interesting tidbit. This was all the rage back in like 2017-18. You certainly see this philosophy utilized in our FA signings and draft picks over the last 3+ years.

Sure is. I just watched a video where people bet the over for Mahomes to have 19.5 yards rushing v. Atlanta. He was at 30 yards rushing when they got the ball back with like 50 seconds to go. He kept trying to hold the ball and kill time (ATL had time outs to use)...he ended up losing 12 yards, kneeling 3 times. And even worse was the last kneel down could have been a traditional one, but he decided to step back and lose the final few yards to screw those who took the over. Hilarious stuff

Tough look for the Brewers having to start Frankie Montas in a must win game. Maybe MLB is forcing them to?

Ah - thanks. Wasn't able to watch.

I can't believe the O's let Bobby Witt beat them. I love it.

He DH'd...

I know they had to battle to get in, but that's like the Jays starting Bassitt in Game 1 of the WC series. Barf.

I mean - typically you're doing this so your franchise catcher is ready for a large load in the playoffs (pardon my pun). It's not like they want to get Brian McCann in the lineup and don't have other bats to DH. Seems odd, but maybe Burnes hates Adley.

Surprised Skubal was pulled after 6 innings / 88 pitches. If Vest coughed up the lead, fans would have lost their minds.

O's are DH'ing Rutschman? Is he hurt?

Yeah that's all fair and I get there are always some sacrificial lambs. At the end of the day, it's all just a big guess for us fans, which is why I'm typically defensive of fans suggesting supplemental coaches should lose their jobs. I hate that fans look at the results and say "see he sucks" so confidently - like changing the hitting coach will solve all the teams offensive problems, without acknowledging the same guy was the hitting coach during a very recent 3 year stretch were we were Top 3 in baseball. In the same breath - shouldn't we fire Pete Walker too? The Jays pitching, especially the bullpen, sucked balls this year. Gausman, Berrios, etc. all declined - quick - blame the pitching coach - fire him right? Why hasn't Pete fixed Berrios? Why did Manoah stuff decline? Why couldn't he fix Mayza (who was back throwing 95+ with the Yanks like 1 month after leaving the Jays)? Why isn't Green getting results, despite great Stuff+? Why can't we develop any arms? Why is every RP prospect in AAA walking 8 guys per 9?

I think he's just trying to reiterate that Soto is significantly better than Vlad. If Vlad wants and will get Soto money, then we're either trading him or letting him walk and let's try to get Soto instead.

Yep - after coaching a Top 3 offense in MLB from 2020 to 2022, Guillermo clearly fell behind the times and was no longer suitable to be the hitting coach. He seemed to completely forget what he was doing.

Crazier things have happened, but I can't help but think the Braves have some of the worst odds of advancing this year. I think having the DBacks in the playoffs would have been better for baseball.

I think that's fair. I'd like to see the org address the future of Shapiro. There are some major decisions to be made. Would you like to see them fire them both right now and do you think that would impact Vlad's future? I happen to think that's a huge element to all of this. A new GM (and/or President) is likely to want to clean house to some extent. Not the best look if you're trying to extend your superstar player(s). Should we cut bait and start fresh - knowing that likely means we're dealing Vlad and Bo....or do you stand pat and let the lame duck President/GM make the decisions with Vlad/Bo? Fascinating times ahead for the Jays.

This is all about different perspectives. Ownership and/or Shapiro may have a totally different perspective of what success looks like than you do. You and I could have different perspectives. The FO inherited a 1 year contender in 2016 that we all knew would have several massive holes in it by 2017. They retooled and were back in the playoffs in 2020, had a great team (likely their best) that just missed out in 2021 and were in the playoffs in 2022 and 2023. Most know the playoffs are a crapshoot and s*** didn't work out. So in some views (perhaps including those who actually matter), results to date have been pretty good. 2024 was a disaster, but there is value in consistency and thus he's provided some leash to turn it around. I do suspect the leash is a lot shorter though... You don't have to squint too hard to see how Ownership and Shapiro "could" view Atkins as doing a pretty solid job. The only way you truly don't is if you believe success is measured in playoff wins. You can believe that if you'd like - but you should at least acknowledge that others don't....and those others might be the ones who own the team and/or are the President of Baseball Operations. Full disclosure - I'm kind of done with Atkins. I'd have no issue if they can him and try someone else. But I'm not ready to suggest the org is a joke with no accountability if they keep him.

That's true. I think it would be odd to have him calling other GM's to see who's available, but he may be there to ensure decisions "pass the smell test" and/or as a sounding board. I still think there are ways to impart real change that don't include firing Shapiro. Or at least I wouldn't be comfortable suggesting the ONLY way to see real change is to fire Shapiro.

He doesn't have to. He can just accept his $22.5M option and pitch however he feels like pitching. I'm just saying it's uncommon for an Owner to just say it was a mistake to sign a current player because he sucked. They also signed and paid Eduardo Rodriguez essentially the same amount this year and he was equally as s***** and is signed for 3 more years. Why does he get a free pass? Who wants to play for an Owner who will publicly call you out as a "mistake" if you have a down year?

https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/3088733/d-backs-owner-shoulders-blame-for-montgomery-signing-our-biggest-mistake Owner pushes GM to sign Jordan Montgomery and then goes on to suggest it was a horrible decision to invest that money in a guy who performed so poorly. This of course is a player who can exercise a $22.5M offer to stay in Arizona next year. He must feel so welcome within the org.

Astros leave Verlander off the WC playoff roster. Do we normally start a playoff thread(s) for this type of info?

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/five-things-i-liked-in-yesterdays-mets-braves-doubleheader/ I thought that was a nice little summary of some awesome things that happened during the Mets/Braves double header yesterday.