Key22

Ray and Matz were total s*** until they came here - so let's give Walker and crew some benefit of the doubt. Garcia has terrific stuff and some good peripherals - ugly numbers maybe but not as ugly as Ray or Matz at the time they came aboard. Our pen was already much improved when they acquired Richards and Cimber. Had these two guys been in our pen all year we would have won 93 games for sure. So with those two and Romero and Mayza and now Garcia - it's not a total trainwreck anymore. We have 5 good arms out of the pen. Merryweather, Hatch and Borucki, I'd include but they all seem made out of glass. Still, they make for respectable depth options when healthy. Given the free-agent market, it appears like everyone is paying 1 more year than projections. Ray is likely getting 7 years at $25m per - the Jays lost 7 WAR in Semien can they lose another 6.5 WAR in Ray? 91 wins - 13 wins. Where are the 13 wins coming from? And we need 14-15.

Ryan Howard a career 14 war but not the 70+ WAR of Scott Rolen? I believe Rolen is ranked as something like the 13th best 3rd baseman in the history of the game or something - was listening to one of those podcasts on Fan590. Howard was good for 7 seasons and terrible the rest of the time and was a poor defensive fielder.

Do you know roughly where that pick would be? It sucks to lose a 7.3 Win player. 91 wins with him and losing a 7 win player means what? Maybe sign the Seagar Brothers. That takes care of second and third and gives us the lefty bat. Or Apparently, Jose Berrios is the Brother-in-law of Javier Baez but I am not a fan of his kind of hitting profile - huge strikeouts and low OBP. Nor the long commitment for such a player.

The initial report was a 3 year deal but that has been taken down.

I see some fans opposed to signing Ray long term. I suspect he will get $150/6 as a floor. Not really sure why - the Jays gave $80/4 to a fat out of shape heavily injury-prone Ryu out to his age 36 year old season. Ray is a beast - not been injured - and 6 years would take him to his 36 year old season. 2 pitches - so what - he doesn't need no stinkn third pitch.

I'd rather the money we give to him partially go to Ray/Gausman. One elite arm is better than two mediocrities. We're not trying to make the playoffs we're trying to win when get there. Ideally, I'd like two of Ray/Gausman/Sherzer. Roll up the Brinks truck. Stripling when healthy is probably as good as Matz. I don't want to commit 3 years to a 5th starter.

Yeah but he doesn't have to pitch to 45 only to 36 - there are a LOT of pitchers who pitch very well to 36. There are pitchers right now like Sherzer, Verlander and even Happ was decent at 36. And he was an all-star previously so it's not like his year is a one-off. I suppose it will depend on what he actually gets but he's the best pitcher on the FA market. What if he's great for the next 5 years and he's great for the Yankees?

I would not be too worried to give him 5/125 - he was on mlb.com in an interview and noted his favourite pitcher was Randy Johnson a fastball/slider guy who was still effective at the age of 45! Ray is a beast. I'd rather have a 1a with 2 pitches than some mediocre bum with 6 pitches. Ray don't need no stinking 3rd pitch. He's 30 - 6/150 - this takes him to age 36. Plenty of fine pitchers at 36. Have walker teach him a circle change if he begins to slow down. 6.7 WAR pitchers are tough to find.

Regarding Stroman - if the players got along with the guy I have no problem bringing him back to Toronto. His online stuff probably causes the brass a headache but the man can pitch and if you can get him on a relative bargain (other teams may not go after him because of his "Strow-Show" hoopla) then he's worth a look. Not all free agents will play in Toronto and Stroman loved it here. And his big complaint that they don't spend money is over. If he's a clubhouse cancer that's a different story but if the teammates were good with him - then they should look seriously at him.

Let's assume that the Jays have $180 million to spend - which is probably closer to reality - with this in mind - what would you do? One of those fan 590 pundits claimed that Shapiro said they could get close to the salary tax - if that quote is true then $180m is still "light." I think they have more financial might than some folks on these forums think. I remember when the front office made a play for Cole with $300M offer - he went to the Yanks but I think the Jays are in that top-end market if they want to be. Correa and move Bo to second. $330/10 - the Jays can do that.

Marcus going with Boras means that he likely won't choose California just because he lives there. Ie; the hometown thing may not factor as much as getting paid well. If anything, that may give Toronto a better shot at signing him. However, San Francisco has a ton of payroll space too. And they're a winning team who will be looking to add. Still, not sure how we improve our WAR by losing Marcus and replacing him with a AAAA player in Biggio. Team needs to add wins to the 91. Losing 13-14 wins losing Macus and Robbie - we need to get those 13 back and probably add another 8 to account for a down year or injury. Biggio - meh.

The Jays have $80million to spend - they should be able to sign both but I take Semien if you can land him - if Bo gets hurt you have a real frontline SS as a backup. Few may be no other teams have that. Pitching is riskier but if you win a Cy Young there is a reason and you want elite pitching in short playoff series - WAR is all well and good but you want the best in the big game - the Jays are now a winning club with WS aspirations - you need to go and get those big arms. But maybe you can just sign a 1 year deal for the likes of a Sherzer. Berrios mitigates losing Ray but if you are giving up Martin and SWR to win this year and next year then losing 6+ WAR in Ray - well you need to get those 6 wins back - 91 wins wasn't enough then 85 wins certainly won't be next year. And I don't think the goal should be to play a one-game playoff - the goal should be to take the division - the talent is here now to do that. $80m you sign both and Matz. You sign two shut-down arms for the pen - Maybe add another bat at third. Still under the $80m probably around $60m. I think Semien probably has to get a Springer contract.

I think if you can sign Semien to a similar contract as Springer you do it. Apparently, the Jays have 80 million so the money should be there for both Semien and Ray and Matz plus a couple bullpen arms - Grichuck will be off the books fairly soon and Ryu only has 2 years left. So they should still have money open up to then use for the young studs. The Jays have the money - do they have the will. Pretty sure Semien will be crushing at 37 so I don't see why a Springer contract can't be done here. I don't know that it is enough. A stud shortstop is worth more than an outfielder. Semien will be viewed as a SS. $150m/6. Top 3 MVP kind of player - I really want him back - Biggio is not a replacement.

This is the first time since 1993 where I feel like if we make the playoffs and wild card game that we have a legit shot at winning the WS - even against LA. We have a legit 1-2-3-4 rotation in a short series they can do a number on an opposing offence - and with our offence which has to be near the top in baseball and respectable enough defence, I can see why Tampa fans would not want to face us. Ray, Berrios, Manoah, Matz. Ryu in the pen. Unlike our prior run with Jose, Donaldson and EE - this offence seems more complete with guys who are willing to hit a single the opposite way where scoring runs is more important than trying to hit bombs every at-bat. If we don't make - it's been fun. Hope they keep Ray and Semien. They'll be next to impossible to replace. Cavan Biggio is not a replacement - Jays apparently have $80million available next year.

I suppose the issue I have is the results are there - 2 MVP calibre campaigns and very good defence is tough to ignore. I mean a 400 fit looping fly ball home run is just as much a home run as a 450 foot line drive home run. And it's better than the non-home run we would get from his replacement - Cavan Biggio. Let's say you could sign him for $23 million a year - if you go out an sign someone else to play second and that player is cheaper but worse at $14 million - why not just spend the extra 9million and get the MVP bat for another 2-3 years? But then I always look at stuff this way - buy X car but maybe spend on the next car up the model range for something that will make you happy for the 5 years you own it - sure the payments are a little higher but maybe your happiness index is two times more. Spend more to get more quality. Because the team is somewhat in "win now" mode for the next two years I am not so sure handing over the position to minor leaguers is great. Remember Pearson was supposed to step in and be a top of the rotation starter. Just as good a chance that he turns out to be the next Kyle Drabek. I remember the Phillies fans were on the Toronto forums saying there was no way they would trade the soon-to-be elite future hall of fame, Kyle Drabek, for Roy Halladay - lol. A team in win now mode knows pretty much what Semien is and doesn't know exactly what anyone on their AAA team will be. I am with you if the Jays decide to go for pitching instead. That's where I would go because I agree our offence probably can lose a bat. So of the two Ray is the priority - you can't easily replace your ace. And he's been our ace this year. If there is a one-game playoff it has to be Ray at this point and I would like my chances. Back the Fort Knox truck up to his door. Unless Berrios is Ray's replacement. So far that's not looking too good.

With the Jays trying to contend why would we not go after both Ray and Semien? What would it take to get them to resign. Ray $80m/4? Semien $110m/5?

My issue here is this - Ray has been the team's best starting pitcher and Semien is the second-best player. They're a 4th place AL East team WITH those two. If in the offseason you lose one or both then you need an equal calibre pair of players just to make this team, once again, a 4th place team. You need those two AND you have to add. Preferably a third baseman and two lights-out bullpen arms to support Romano. I like some of the middle inning options they have but you ideally want two more Romano types - guys who come in and can K the side. A new manager - Paul Molitor won manager of the year in 2017 and then was fired the following year. I don't know if he was actually a good manager but if he is - he would provide good optics if they fire Monty. Maybe he can be a player-manager - he could probably at least get a bloody bunt down even at 65.

This was always a growing season so I am not too concerned by the results - teams slump, players slump but experienced good teams find a way to beat mediocre teams. We had a great pen at the beginning of the year but the injuries were tremendous and it proved too hard to overcome. A totally healthy Yates and Merriweather and Borucki and Hatch would have gone a long way this year. As for firing the manager. Well who are you going to hire? Take all the NAME managers like a Buck Showalter - just to point out that every single manager that is known to you that is not currently working was FIRED and in 99% of cases the fans hated him for mismanaging the pen or putting a bunt down that failed. We recently played LAA and Eaton cost them games against us - he has such an awful arm that everyone was running on him - that's the hand their manager was dealt. Why play such a bum was my thought - he's done. Well, that's what the manager had. They released him since but... And the manager that everyone laughed at when they hired him for being an old geezer out of touch with modern baseball - Tony La Russa - um he's winning! 72-53 first in the division with a 10 game lead. So his lack of metrics isn't hurting them. Hell Cito won two world series here and he was considered a bum. Here's a thought - a fringey player should be able to get a f***ing bunt down. You are an MLB pitcher - get the hitter out. You are an all-star second baseman - throw the f***ing ball chest high to the first baseman! The manager can't play the game for the players and when management gives you Dolis and Chatwood for the 7th-8th then you are stuck with them.

I think you still have to go for the WC if you have the chance. Obviously, you don't go all-in for a WC but the opportunities don't come around all the time. If you win that WC game then you never know - offensively we have enough to win - Ryu/Ray is a respectable 1-2 punch in the playoffs. It cost a nothing prospect so why not - it's not like we gave up Groshans.

Blame it on the park I say. I look at Tampa and Boston and I wonder why we can't beat them - we seem to have a ton of talent but they seem better at execution and winning. Management? I don't mean just the manager but perhaps through the system, we're weaker at doing the little things. Or our pitching just sucks. But Tampa keeps finding it over and over and it's not like they have first overall picks anymore as the excuse. Ray is our best pitcher - losing him to free agency would be tough for next year. Can the Jays put together a real rotation and pen in the offseason? They're going to have to pay a ton of money to get it.

So close to a Home-Run cycle. Never been done. A-Rod had the best shot at it. He had the slam, the three-run, and the two-run, bomb by the 4th inning. Couldn't get the solo. Vladdy needed a three-run. Still - a long career ahead hopefully and plenty of time. Let's start tomorrow.

This Springer contract is looking ugly so far. Uglier when he turns 34. Over/under on 400 games played in 6 years?

It depends how the Jays view Groshans and Manoah - if they believe Monoah is a future Ace or #2 and Groshans will be a future all-star then no. Simply target shorter-term all-star caliber starting pitchers who are on no hope teams. No rush - let's see what we have in Matz and Ray and Kay and Thornton and even Stripling and Roark. Maybe we get lucky here and 2 of that bunch surprise. Maybe they unlock the talent in Matz and get Ray back to his all-star form. Maybe Roark goes back to being a very solid inning eating number 4 that keeps the team in the game. Then at the all-star break, you pick up a number 2 or an ace on the last year of his contract and the other team isn't likely getting the world for him. I quite like the Jays financial situation - 2021 is a "see what we have year" but we're nowhere near as good as the Dodgers - even with Castillo. So let's build this for one more year. Something like $50m come off the books at the end of the year right? Semien ($18m), Roark $12m, Ray $8m, Yates, Phelps. $50m next off-season to spend. A placeholder hired gun ace for the playoffs is a much cheaper get than a 3 service years ace. The Jays should be looking to try and offload those 40 man bubble guys - trading guys you pretty much know what you're trading like Sean Reid-Fowly types. They may wind up decent major league pitchers but not the next Roger Clemens. Manoah was their number 1 draft pick because big hulking 97mph strikeout guy - possible ace upside. Lastly, is Manoah and Groshans better than what Tampa got for Snell?

The second tier pitchers are likely waiting on Bauer. So who do we like. I figure the four remain targets are Paxton Odirizzi Walker And Rosenthal. Which, if any, should the Jays target. Paxton has high upside high injury problems. Walker was pretty solid for us - results if not peripherals - and Odirizzi they always seem interested in and never get. Rosenthal for the pen would be another lock-down type and would certainly make our pen look like a powerhouse (on paper). The interesting thing is you might be able to get 3 out of the 4 for less money than one Bauer. And on fewer years. Or should we be looking at trades instead. With this current pitching we aren't going anywhere so waiting to see what happens.

Sign Bauer, Paxton, and Walker. Pearson becomes Verlander Problem solved. Legit WS contender. It's only money. Increase the Internet bill $2 a month.