Key22

With Soto, we just have to offer more than a competing team. How many teams can afford $33m for one year of SOTO and who also feels they have a chance to win? So for example - the Yankees are said to be in on Soto - so let's say hypothetically they're the only team in on him. Can we offer SD a package that beats the Yankees without giving up Tiedemann?

I watched Craig Ferguson interviewing Carey Mulligan about Hollywood and Los Angeles. Skip to 38:25 I say you never know with Ohtani. He's lived there so he may like it. However, he's lived there and he may be like "Been there done that." For people who can afford to travel the world and who have buckets of cash - LA would not rank high on my list. Canada certainly would. Of course, with Ohtani money, he could buy dozens of houses all around the world and fly in private jets or massive Yachts I'm not sure the city matters that much - he's playing in Toronto in the non-snowy months - the training facility and spring training is in Florida. Once the season ends he can hop on a jet to his home in Australia, Italy, Okinawa, New Zealand, etc. Who knows the guy might like snowball fights. I've travelled a fair bit and Canada, despite issues, is a tough place to beat. I'd much rather live in Canada than California. Although California does have beaches and more big-breasted blondes - that's tough to overcome.

I think the only real argument against going for Ohtani is roster construction due to the luxury tax punishments. Teams with real money don't worry about the draft too much because they tend to be good teams and select lower down the draft. Moreover, the draft is a crapshoot and rarely do teams get big stars lower down the list. So a big-budget team doesn't care about losing the 2nd and 5th-round pick for signing free agents. The Jays have one of the deepest-pocketed organizations in baseball. But they are run by suits - in the case of signing someone like Ohtani - it usually requires a Steve Cohen - A billionaire who is willing to way overspend because he wants what he wants. In order to land Ohtani - he has to turn down more money from the Mets or Dodgers I suspect to play in Toronto. That's possible IF he simply likes Canada more than the USA. I certainly do but then it's different when you're a hundred millionaire. Canada has nice safety nets for the middle class - but the uber-wealthy don't need social safety nets like free medical. He can live in a massive mansion in Hollywood with big-boobed models on the beaches of California. Plus he already knows California. So, my question is - how do you sell him on the Blue Jays? The Mets are willing to have a $ 350 million payroll -- the Dodgers too probably. The Jays? We know they have the money - technically they CAN run that payroll but I doubt the suits would allow it. They have their "process" and rational reasoned calculations. Cohen doesn't - the beancounters might tell him player X is worth $20m and no more but he is willing to spend $40m to get him. A board of directors style management won't do that. So that means Ohtani would have to take less to go to Toronto knowing the team won't likely continue spending to surround him with elite talent. Cohen can easily sign Ohtani AND Yamamoto AND Snell AND Bellinger AND trade for Trout AND sign HADER AND trade for SOTO. Wouldn't even be a blip on his bank balance. Sure the Mets stunk last year but you know as a player that the ownership is willing to spend idiotic money.

I suppose it would help to know what the real relationship between Manoah and the Jays really is. There is no guarantee that Manoh will ever return to form. Pete Alonso had a 3.2 WAR last year and provides power (46 homers) that the Jays could certainly use. Vladdy had a 2.0 WAR and seems as dumb as dogshit. You are giving up 2 years of Vlad for one year of Alonso. McNeil offers 2.4 WAR (already more value than Vladdy last year) and gives the Jays a Merrifield replacement. McNeill was a 5.1 WAR player in 2022 and is signed through 2026 with 2027 as an option. If you feel like he is more of the 2022 player then this trade isn't that bad. It all depends on what you think Manoah is - was it a one year fluke being bad or was the good season the fluke? Vladdy is more of a name - he wasn't good defensively last year and he is a double-play machine. Now, apparently he had family issues last year but if you do not plan to give him a long term contract and he isn't hitting or fielding all that well - then in return you are getting two proven bats who can help you win in 2024. The Jays are trading for 5.6 WAR and giving up 2.0 WAR Vlad and -1.1 WAR Manoha (combined 0.9 WAR). Is this what Vlad and Manoah are because if yes - I make this trade in a heartbeat. Is Vlad the projected next Hank Aaron and Manoah the next top 5 Cy Young candidate? They sure don't look like it to me.

This is the second article I have read about the jays moving Bo Bichette https://www.sportskeeda.com/baseball/news-blue-jays-fans-slam-trade-rumors-linking-bo-bichette-cubs-makes-absolutely-sense?key4=skmlbfbpost&fbclid=IwAR1s_u1COoHx7gHulVzxNzEoQI9KskNZxLpdQFZZuojeKqmtCUVaJutqJK4 https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2023/11/22/bo-bichette-trade-rumors/ Assuming the Jays feel Bo isn't interested in resigning with the Jays - what would you want from the Cubs to pull the trigger? They suggest Christopher Morel & their third-ranked prospect OFer Owen Caissie and muuuuch more. Does this start the conversation?

Does anyone know if the posting fee counts against a team's payroll and the Balance tax? Yamamoto's posting fee could be around $40 million and was wondering how it would affect payroll like $4m a year for 10 years (assuming it's a 10-year deal)?

And then you see the job AA is doing in Atlanta locking up talent for lower than market value for half a decade and with a lower payroll.

This point may have already been made but if the Jays cared so much about matchups by the numbers then Gausman never should have started game one. As bad as pulling Berrios was - if going by matchups is Plan A, B, and C then at least stick to the plan - be consistent. It's not unlike the old days when an umpire would always call the outside pitch 2 inches off the plate to right-handed hitters - if he always calls it then hitters can adjust to it. If you call it 6 times and not the other 4 - that's when they have problems. And the other issue that probably has been mentioned is that if you do decide to take out Berrios why not bring in Cabrera or Mayza- guys with experience coming in with men on base. Guys who are experienced relievers over Kikuchi. I just think dumbass decisions hurt your chances to attract free agents because they look at those management decisions as not trusting the players. If it's between us and a team where the manager keeps the starter in for 7 innings even though he gave up 2-3 runs - that pitcher will choose that team over one run by Atkins/Schneider.

The problem with Ohtani for me is that if he gets hurt you lose, effectively two players. I would prefer to go get an ace pitcher and a big hitting DH. It probably costs less money. And it's less likely they both get hurt. I would probably rather Yamamoto and even a guy like JD Martinez - you'll probably get your 35ish home runs and doubles etc and if Yamamoto is as good as they say - you have your ace. Guys like JD can be replaced in and out of that DH spot so you don't need any long-term commitment - 1 year 12 million - Yamamoto is probably $250/10 but you would still have a lot of money left over to fill another spot like 3B - so in reality 3 players for one Ohtani. And Ohtani isn't pitching next year. So unless you can recoup the money somehow financially - I doubt we're in on him. You need a crazy rich owner to just go crazy and spend - suits from Rogers = fat chance.

I sort of look at free agency the way I look at the draft - sign the best player regardless of position. So to me, you push hard for Yamamoto if you think this guy could be a legit ace. Why? because we're losing Kikuchi next year - Manoah is no guarantee and possible injuries - Yes pitching is our strength but if Yamamoto is a generational talent (albeit big iff) then offence be damned - the Jays can be a playoff team with pitching and defence. Then next offseason there may be more bats. Indeed, if you can land another ace now next offseason you become very enticing to free agent hitters. Even now - Toronto has to be enticing to Ohtani - none of that crappy rotation problem in LAA - the Jays have a legit front 4 and a very solid bullpen. If you're a hitter you have to like your chances to win with your bat in the line-up. I don't know what the marketing of Ohtani would bring to the Jays - but it just seems to me that he would be "worth it" - the contract in terms of payroll might be huge but the gain from Jays memorabilia, tickets, TV coverage etc in Japan would seem to be big enough to counter that.

If you trade a pitcher for a bat you can backfill the pitcher via free agency. No bats on the free agent market but tons of pitchers. Manoah is attractive in the sense that he is cheap so teams who can't land a Blake Snell or Yamamoto because they cost too much might like Manoah or even Kikuchi at $10m for one year. Sign pitchers - trade for bats. Some teams also don't want a long pitching contract - If Snell is going to land a 5-6 year deal - maybe we sign him - trade Bassit with 2 years left for a couple of bats.

I may be overreacting to Vladdy's downward numbers but his big year came playing in triple-A ballparks I believe. If we're talking about giving out the largest contract in Jays history I am more in favour of Soto than Vladdy - but you are correct - neither of them is exactly thrilling on defense. Personally, I am more a fan of doling out big money to someone who is excellent/elite on both sides of the baseball like a Mike Trout but such is not available. I am just more confident in Soto's bat than Vladdy's bat. Regarding Manoah, this was suggested by one of the guests on the Blair and Barker show on Sportsnet by someone like Ben Nicholson Smith or Jeff Passan that he was not happy about being sent down the second time - so perhaps we can take that with a grain of salt. I am no fan of trading low on him. However we don't really know what is going on behind the scenes - all we have are guesses. I think the Jays will be in tough if the MLB predictions on salary and teams are true 12 years to Bellinger? I think the problem with some statistics is almost all of them are geared over the long term. And the Jays have to play 81 games at Rogers center. I am not that interested on placement finishes like whether a team finishes 4th in all of baseball in X stat - what I want is - can you win the game when it counts? I don't care that you outscore Oakland 45-0 in a three-game series - can you beat a middling Minnesota Twins when the chips are down? You need to build a team for both making the playoffs and a team that can win in a short series. The Jays are not alone here - LA and Atlanta frustrate their fans even more trotting out the excuse that they had too much rest. Still, I think Barker does note some various issues regarding the eye test that when you face the Rangers or the Phillies they have hitters you actually fear - with Vladdy as he noted - he still absolutely crushes anything in the middle of the plate (crushes mistakes) - but curve balls down and away - he's an easy out for any pitcher who can actually execute. Is he smart enough to take those pitches and walk? This is a guy in the minors who walked more than he struck out - but that is not translating in the majors - Soto walked more than he struck out last year and the year before and the year before. I like the idea of Vladdy and Soto as a right-left mashing duo - Manny Ramirez was a s*** defender and Ortiz was basically a DH - a feared 1-2 punch f ever there was one. The Jays line-up is constructed to try and get multiple hits to get runs. I don't like that for the playoffs. As Barker notes it's too hard to string multiple hits off the best pitchers. You need those Shwarber types to go nuts. Even then it wasn't enough but with our pitching man.

Sorry maybe I wasn't clear - My suggestion of Manoah, Kikuchi, and Tiedemann to Padres for Soto (on the condition he signs - 13 years $450m), was based on the fact that various talking heads suggesting that Manoah wants out of Toronto - that Kikuchi is arguably a sell high candidate on the last year of his deal and thus the trade is largely Tidemann for Soto. And on the condition that we can extend Soto. The reason for this suggestion is that the free agent market is terrible for hitters but is very deep on the pitching front. The idea is to also make a big splash and sign Yoshinobu Yamamoto who arguably becomes the ace of the staff if reports on him are accurate - so we upgrade on Kikuchi and he would be a long-term sign. Tiudemann may be very good but he may be another Pearson. With a team looking to win a WS the next two years with the Bo and Vlad window do you want to dick around with the Maybe that is Tiedemann. I think San Diego will look to trade Soto - I think it's going to require a stiff price. If you can hold back Tiedemann and pay some sort of lesser price - that would be ideal. San Diego isn't likely going to throw in the towel - they may want MLB ready players or roster players in return. I consider Soto to be more of a generational talent than a Vladdy - I am not a big fan of paying for one-dimensional players - Vladdy is basically now a marginal defensive 1b - a good but not perhaps great hitter. I don't think we can rely on him being one of those 40 homer .900+ OPS bats. Maybe he is and just needs protection. The Jays apparently have 40-50 million to spend - but I think when building a winner - everything needs to be on the table - if you can sign a Yamamoto, trade for Soto - pick up someone like Montgomery and JD Martinez - maybe you have to move Vladdy and his projected $20m to make financial room. I am not big on moving Vladdy - but IF you are going to do it - I think you can get away with it based on his baserunning blunder - the fanbase isn't as high on him so you can move him without too much pushback. Timing and Optics. Moving him frees up money where now you have 60-70 million to spend - then making these other moves doesn't seem so impossible. As Barker of Blair and Barker noted the Jays hitters were easy to pitch to and one dimensional and all struggled with the elevated fastball - Springer, Chapman, Varsho basically can't hit 95+. They feel like the Jays need to bring in 5 bats. That's impossible. The alternative is to bring in high quality and possibly strengthen your strength -pitching. I mean JD Martinez on a 1-year deal, One major lefty bat Ohtani/Soto trade/Bellinger (iffY), and even - gulp - Lourdes Gurriel Jr - with Yamamoto and some sort of Montgomery number 3 starter and pick up Green's contract and add one more bullpen arm (Hicks) would be a pretty great offseason. But that sure looks unlikely to me and it sort of needs to be what happens. This team has a lot of holes and I am not a fan of "we hope that Kirk, Vlad, Varsho, Springer all rebound next year" Nothing suggested to me that they can rebound at the plate.

I think the trade tends to look worse because of Arizona making it to the World Series but they're not really a good team. If they got bounced in the first round - it would not have been so in our face. Moreover, as the talking heads have noted - Varsho looks worse because they ran him out there as a cleanup hitter and in left field. But if we look at him more objectively - he was the second-best defensive CF in the game (to KK) - his offence looks better if you view him as a 7 to 9 hitting elite defensive CF. Indeed, if this team had better hitters and you have him in the bottom third now he looks a lot better - 20 home run 8-9 hole hitter with some speed and great bunting ability - the guy is good - he's just magnified because of what we gave up. But let's ask a serious question - we had three catchers with only room for 2 - would Arizona have taken Kirk? I am not so sure. And Kirk was hugely popular here as that cute little guy that casual Toronto fans tend to like regardless of talent. The offensive free-agent market is terrible so why not look at trading Kikuchi, Romano and even Berrios to get some bats? Pick up the option on Green. The first two are on attractive contracts. Trade for the bats and then make a big push for a guy like Yoshinobu Yamamoto and then maybe Jordan Montgomery (although a bit of a fatty) and Jordan Hicks. I don't think we have many prospects to move but given how are "future aces" have turned out in recent years - I would probably put Tiedemann on the table - Remember Pearson was a future can't-miss hall of fame ace - meh - give me a player who can help now. Manoah, Kikuchi, and Tiedemann to Padres for Soto (on the condition he signs - 13 years $450m). If you want to win you need good players. I look at our line-up and other than Bo Bichette it looks pretty damn bad - you need some thumpers. Someone you actually feel is a difficult out - Your top 5 hitters should cause the opposing pitcher cause for worry - the only one we had last year was Bo. No one was worried about Springer, Vlad, Belt or the chorus of mediocrities cycled in the 4-5 spot. If you trade Vlad and his $20 million you can pick up two JD Martinez sort of bats - arguably this team needs 4-5 bats. They're going to have to make some tough calls.

Varsho had a 3.9 WAR this year - he is ranked as the second-best defensive CF in all of baseball. The problem isn't Varsho. Ideally, if you could create a very good offensive team - you would have Varsho batting 9th and playing all-star defense in CF and you would take a 3.9 WAR player all day as your 9-hole hitter. But because most of the guys you expected to hit were garbage you had the guy in the 5-6 hole and he didn't perform. Gabriel Moreno had a 4.3 WAR and Lourdes was 3.0 WAR and Teoscar was 2.1 = 9.4 VS Varsho 3.9, Swanson 1.4 = 5.3 But to be fair - the Jays reduced payroll and cleared space on the roster for Belt (2.0) and KK (3.9) who were acquired to replace Teo and Loudes = 5.9+ the 5.3 = 11.2 Trades aren't done in a vacuum so I look at it more big picture - The Jays probably misread what Varsho would be - as they did with Grichuck. So if the organization is all about process then they need to have a process wherein they figure out why they are misreading talent. They have a lot of money coming off the books - the free agent market is generally weak but if the team is really going to improve the lineup in a big way they should probably target Cody Bellinger as a left-handed hitting threat and add a guy like JD Martinez as a DH power bat. This team badly needs at least 2 thumpers and I hate to say it but if you can find any takers on Springer (eating a bunch of salary) the Jays should look at it before he becomes a Vernon Wells albatross (if it already isn't too late).

I fully agree with you on what we need but I think the massive problem is the free agent market doesn't have any all-star calibre impact bats available - and that's what the Jays need - big time offensive players (other than Ohtani and Bellinger). I'd love to have both of them as they sure would solve that dreaded left-handed hitter problem But realistically, I doubt we get either one. Are there any other studs in free agency who would really transform this team's run production? If you try to make a trade for a big bat that trade conversation will start with Ricky Tiedemann. Do we trust Ross Atkins (Moreno and Gurriel for Varsho - OOOPS) and "let's sign Grichuk for 5 years" to find the offence? We got lucky with almost no injuries all year to our starting staff - and I don't think anyone should count Manoah, White or Francis in rotation conversation in 2024. With Ryu gone and Kikuchi not pitching all that well in the latter 1/2 of the season - it's tough to not look at the rotation. And are the Jays really that confident in Romano? Romano/Hader/Hicks/Green/Mayza/Garcia - Maybe we just try and build from the best available talent - this year has few bats so we strengthen the pitching then next year with the pitching in place then we get the bats?

I don't think John Schneider is the reason they pulled Berrios - so Schneider is more of a puppet for the front office. How many managers does Atkins get to blame - he is the guy who hired Montoya and Schneider after all - so if anyone gets fired, it has to be Atkins. The problem with firing Schneider, is who do you hire? Do you hire a front office yes man or do you hire someone like Buck Showalter who would make his own decision and keep Berrios in and go against the suits/upper management? All the ex-managers available were all fired at some point so who is good? Mattingly was canned, Showalter was canned, Nevin was canned. If you fire Atkins - same issue. And the free agent hitter class seems really weak to me. Maybe you look internally and then double up on your strength - maybe you put Orelvis Martinez in at third to replace Chapman, because you won't likely take an offensive hit there - maybe you use the $55 million coming off the books to sign Blake Snell and Josh Hader? Retain Hicks and Green. Make a trade or three for some bats?

Blair and Barker - on The Jay's loss. Interesting comments on the manager and his "authority" vs say a Dusty Baker who can override what the suits are saying/commanding. https://www.sportsnet.ca/590/blue-jays-this-week/an-agonizing-shutout-loss-ends-the-2023-blue-jays-season/

Thanks to Belt for breaking up Cole's perfect game.

Even Elite closers blow it from time to time - see Mariano Rivera's 4 blown saves in the playoffs. No one better than Mariano. And Romano isn't Rivera. Tampa is a better team than us - you don't want to be in too many 1-2 run games with them because they'll find ways to come up clutch.

Smarties in the UK were better because each colour had an actual flavour. Orange tasted like orange chocolate etc. The Canadian version are just different colours. The new UK ones are also just colours. Canada is the only country with coffee crisp. So I always have it when in Canada.

Atlanta has AA as GM. He pulled the strings to get the right replacements to win the WS. Atkins has less than 24 hours to fix the offense and also replace the league leader in hits all with a crappy farm system. We do have solid pitching and pitching can keep you in games but losing Bichette for any length is crippling as he is the only good consistent hitter on this team. We are making bums look like Cy Young.

It's hard to get excited about the draft when our pick is in the bottom 1/3 - we don't have a second-rounder and our farm looks pretty bad - and other AL East teams hit more in getting high-quality players. Austin Martin was the big hype prospect "can't believe he fell to the Jays" - "Can't-miss hitter" "best bat in the draft class" hype hype hype. Nate Pearson "100Mph best arm in the draft" - "can't miss ace of a future rotation" "Best prospect in baseball" - Vlad Jr. - A bit unfair as he did finish 2nd in MVP but that was a while ago now and now he's a league-average player. "Can't-miss Hall of Farmer with the chance to be the greatest hitter in the history of major league baseball" to mediocrity in 3 years. Whoever scouted Carlos Delgado/Roy Halladay/Dave Steib/David Wells/Jimmy Key/Jeff Kent/ Tony Fernandez/Fred McGriff/Michael Young (shoot the guy who traded him for the drug dealing pitcher) - rehire this scouting team - pay them the $14 million you're paying Vladdy. Or you know just hire the Tampa Bay Rays scouting and player development department - their coaching staff from Cash on down - pay them 10 times their current salary - now THAT would be money well spent.

Basically, the Jays can simply use Manoah's start as a BP day with an opener as they have done in the past. With Berrios and Kikuchi and Bassit and Gauseman - even with Manoah the rotation still has a strong 4. Trying to be positive about it. The Jays had White and Tiedemann and Thornton for depth but both they are all hurt. I think you'd have to give Francis a shot at this point - it's hard to be any worse. Check the waiver wire. At this point, if you can find anyone who can throw 5-6 innings of 4-run ball you'd probably take it.

I think the issue is that the Jays are not able to beat any of the teams in our division (good teams) and there is little to no help in the minors coming. The problem is do you really trust Atkins to make a really good trade? If the Jays are in last place at the end of June then they should probably be in sell mode