Key22

The Happ trade hurts more because the Jays have helped the Yankees and not helped themselves so aiding a division rival and getting zero return isn't the best of moves. But this may have been the best offer the Jays has at the time and he was a rental. Happ was pitching rather poorly at the time of the trade. Not Robbie Ray bad but bad nevertheless. I guess we'll see what we gave up for Ray.

I tend to agree - normally I would not try to go for it in this sort of year but with Ryu and Walker and Pearson and Shoemaker likely to make it back along with Giles and Bichette and the fact that the pen has pitched well - they do have a chance at this thing. In a short series anything can happen if you can trot out three starters and a solid pen. The offense scores runs. So if the Jays can add a premium starter and maybe veteran catcher or one big bat you never know. You know that "window of opportunity" thing - this is the window - it may not come again for another 2-3 years. It seems like most of these trades - the prospects usually don't turn out to be all that great. The Jays can't keep everyone.

He was fat in the minors and he hit. Frank Thomas was fat and he hit. Cliff Johnson (ex Blue Jay) was fat and he hit. Babe Ruth was the fattest of them all and he hit. Vlad is facing major league pitching - not a bunch of second rate scrubs who can't make it to the majors. He's facing guys with high 90s fastballs who can spot it and with some elite breaking balls. He can square up the mediocrities with a 91mph fastball right down the middle - but not 96mph with 10 inch movement followed up by guys who can throw wipe out sliders on the black. He's still young but the problem is magnified when he has no positional value - at least Bichette can play competent defense so when he goes into a hitting drought - he still has some value. With Vlad - he's a one tool player - bat. If he is not hitting at a minimum of an .900OPS - he's not really useful. He needs to be putting up Manny Ramirez/Ortiz/Thomas/Carlos Delgado kind of numbers to live up to the hype as the greatest minor league hitter to walk the earth. The hype led me to believe he would be better than Carlos Delgado. To be fair - if you look at Delgado in his age 21,22,23 seasons with the Jays the offensive numbers were crap. .509 OPS in his age 23 season (99Ab's). So not the time to panic - but they could move him to 8th in the order to take some pressure off of him. Have Hernandez bat 3rd or 4th.

Being liked as a pitcher or player in baseball is less important than talent - it's not like Hockey or basketball or soccer where there is more of a direct give and take and working together to get the job done. Baseball is individuals doing individual things for the most part. So Ty Cobb may be a total ass but he's a great player and your team will have a better chance to win if your team has Ty Cobb. These players today are often all spoiled brats - they make more money on draft day than most people on this board will earn in a 40 year working career. So they're millionaire's in their teens. Most of them are not too educated - getting scholarships based on their athletics not their brains. Oh they managed to scrape by with a C- woah what minds. People got on Rocky Henderson when he said "I'm the greatest of all time" - but I had no problem with that because - umm he WAS the greatest of all time (SB). So you can be a primadonna if you can back it up. The Jays were hoping that Grichuk might turn into the next Joey Bats. Hasn't happened but Stroman hasn't been the next Pedro Martinez which the hype machines have said was where he was headed. All those Stroman pitch analysis like best secondary stuff in the game etc etc. Stroman was a headache and he wasn't Pedro Martinez. Grichuk still has time to live up to his contract. I think all he needs to hit is 2.0 WAR to live up to his contract. He was a little above that in 2018. So there is a chance.

I always found playing first more difficult than playing 3rd. When I played third it is basically all reactionary. Get ball and fire it to first. First base - holding runners on - getting back into position - the second to first double play throwing around the runner. I hated first base - always seems much harder to me. And defensively - a left handed pull hitter can drill the ball between first and second the same as a right handed hitter can drill the ball between second and third - you are often closer to the hitter at first as well because you have to get to your bag. Bunts are also harder because you have to get to the ball and then spin around to throw the ball back the the second baseman covering first - but at third you are more or less running in the direction of first base or the plate so you can pick up the ball and throw. Anyway Vlad is a bat - if he can play a league average first base - I would be thrilled with that - IF he hits like Frank Thomas then all is forgiven. I would love to have 1B covered by a .320 40 home run ~1.000OPS hitter and average Defese for the next decade. Carlos Delgado 2.0. I mean Vlad has been around how long and can't speak English? So he's probably not the hardest working guy in the world. See ball hit ball really really hard.

What if Frasso doesn't sign? Do the Jays lose #4 pick slot money? If that is so what would be the max money left for Martin? From what I read Frasso had an arm problem but was supposedly a round 1 lock. So maybe he tries his luck next year for 5 times the pay day. Also Remember - Blue Jays - Boras - Paxton.

I wonder if Frasso is throwing a wrench in the plans? Seems to be taking awhile.

My only concern about martin is the fact that he fell to 5th could mean that those 3 teams think Martin is overrated. If the Jays didn't pick him at 5 how far might he have fallen? I would think that a possible star position player holds more value than a possible stat pitcher. And when drafting pitchers it seems to be more risky than position players as your list notes. I understand a team valuing SS above other positions but Martin seems to have been regarded by some as the best overall talent in the draft who can play an up the middle position (a projected 5 tool player at SS, 2B or CF). 4 teams passed on that. Did we (Jay's brass) miss something here?

I get what you mean As a teacher in BC I am forced to be in the union whether I like it or not. And so are MLB players though from a player's perspective it's generally a good union when you look at salaries from 1985 through to 2020. Sure beats the teacher's union. It's interesting that union busting has become a popular stance but doesn't seem to apply to millionaire unions. If the top salary was capped at $1million a year. And all other sports were capped the same - and universities gave no free education to athletes - I wonder how many IF ANY of these players would still not play baseball? It's not like most of them are smart enough to become elite engineers or doctors so would they throw a ball for $1million or work at 7/11 for minimum wage? Something tells me they'd all be jumping for joy at throwing a ball for a yearly lotto win.

#2 slot is $7,789,900 This is a Boras client - he wants #2 slot at the very least I suspect so I would start with that number to be on the safe side. I think it would be best to figure he wants $8,000,000 and then figure how you sign the other 4 players with what is left. $9,716,500 pool -$8m $1,716,500 - 97,500 (#5) = $1,619,000/3 for the pitchers. Adjust the figures for the 5% but it's Boras and I am fairly sure Martin was passed over because he wanted more than Baltimore's slot. Best case I think would be $7,500,000 with a lot of sweet talking and premium porn stars sent to his new free apartment in the city of his choice. Hush Hush Wink Wink. It may also depend on what Torkelson gets.

The old school thinking was defense up the middle - offense on the corners. If Grichuk can be a positive defensive CF - then his mediocre numbers "play up" in center field. A potential 30 homer bat and a .750ish OPS is good in center field and as a number 8 hitter (the second cleanup bat). Of course all that would help if the right field bat to replace Grichuk was someone like Stanton and not Fisher. But that's why the Jays are a fourth place team not a first place team. Can't fix all the holes in one off season. Jays have to get lucky with some of their young players and have some of the pitchers take some unexpected leaps forward - Pearson comes in and dominates or Kay becomes a solid number 3 starter - need one of those Estrada surprises where a projected fringe guy becomes a solid number 2.

What is the point of trading an elite closer for "an average outfielder". Sure in terms of WAR it might make sense but elite closer = hard to get. Average OF. Sign a free agent ... they're a dime a dozen.

Just make sure you see the Korean Girls when they were 15 to 18 so you know what they looked like before the dozens of plastic surgeries they all have. Otherwise you'll winder why your kid looks like a troll.

Great pitchers call their own games. Catcher puts the fingers down and the pitcher nods yes to the one he wants to throw and where. Having a catcher that generally knows what the pitcher wants speeds up the process. It is generally better to have the pitcher choose where and what to throw because they have more confidence in what they're doing.

Ryu seems like a pitcher not just a thrower. And having a junk pitcher with command and control makes up for not having elite stuff. The game is littered with 98mph fantastic stuff machines the fizzle out in 3 years. I don't think anyone should expect a first tier Ace out of Ryu but if he can be a solid starter that keeps the team in the game in the majority of starts...a Mark Beuhrle or Jimmy Key type then this is a terrific sign. All pitchers are injury risks. Soyou just hope his arm holds out. If he is a solid 3 maybe a 2 then you have a respectable rotation and next offseason maybe we can add. And we will have a rotation that might look appealing to a free agent especially if Pearson dominates.

Signing Edwin might bring the casuals back and a near .850 OPS 35 homer bat is what you want from the DH spot. $10m to $12m/2.

The reality is this team is 2 years away from beginning any sort of a run. 2020 is about finding out if Vlad is the next Frank Thomas or the Next Travis Snider. There are doubts about Bichette as his minor league numbers were weaker than Brett Lawrie - Lawrie also came out of the gates looking like and all-star that lasted about 5 minutes. Lourdes looks good but seems fragile and can't take a walk. Jansen was supposed to be a major bat and has frankly stunk in the box. They could all be great - but 2020 will be the year to find out. Shapiro also included Fisher as an example of someone they think can be really good but has yet to really show it. So yes lots of potential - now it needs to turn into actual on field results. So of course the Jays are only looking at 1 and 2 year commitments and stand in sort of players. Athletes want to win - the Jays are at least 2 and probably 4 years away from that and they're playing in the toughest division. So if you are a player who wants to win - you're not signing with the Jays if another team offers you 80% the contract the Jays are offering. People get mad at the front office but a 67 win team with a bunch of unproven young players a near league worst rotation and pen (the best of which you're likely trading) and you expect them to come here. Shapiro noted too he doesn't just want players who will sign here just for the money but that actually want to be here. Ryu is a pipe-dream. $80m/4 - I seriously doubt the Jays get anywhere near that. They'll probably offer $51m/3 at best. And that doesn't move the needle. We'd be a slightly better 4th place team. The only reason I say we should try and land a higher level pitcher is the "just in case' factor. If Jansen hits, Bichette is the nest short stop version of Altuve, Vlad becomes Trout at the plate, Biggio becomes a 6 war player - then all of a sudden the team is suddenly a great offensive team and has no pitching to support it. If you have a very respectable pitching staff - you can make some noise.

I have no problem with Keuchel - if the team figures that Nate Pearson is going to be an ace or number 2 starter and Manoah is going to be a top of the rotation starter along with him then Keuchel can slot in as the number 3 starter and can serve as a mentor to the young guys - perhaps like Mark Buehrle. I mean if he is healthy - he is a solid #3 and maybe you can offer $45m/3 - and you add performance bonuses for IP or something to get it to a possible $54m/3. He probably has to get more dollars and years than Roark given his stature in the game. Then maybe try Ryu at $72m/4 if you get outbid you get outbid - but the team would look a whole helluva lot better as 1. Ryu 2. Keuchel 3. Shoemaker 4. Roark 5. Pearson Long relievers and spot starters: Thornton, Waguespack, Borucki, SRF, Kay, Zeuch, Anderson Indeed, all of these guys can go 4 innings+ and in today's game that sort of 2 starters per start model might not be that bad. Roark goes 5 Borrucki goes 4. Some will be in the minors of course but still - a lot of decent #4 and #5 depth here. If the Jays hit - and play remotely competent defense then at least there is cause for optimism. If Pearson becomes a bonafide Gerrit Cole kind of Ace and Vlad becomes the Frank Thomas .330 50 home run bat he is supposed to be then things look better really fast.

After reading MLBtraderumours and the discussion Ryu's next contract - the Jays are apparently in on him but up against the Dodgers and Twins, Cardinals. They make the case that the market is higher than predicted and their initial $54m/3 won't get it done. He was second in CY Young Voting and first in E.RA and doesn't walk people and gets tons of groundballs. Apparently the Jays have offered more money to Porcello and he went with a team that has a better chance to win. Ryu may be the same - at a certain point you get rich enough and what you want is world series ring. I know they say money talks but for a team like the Jays I can't see the guy coming here if the money is close. I think the floor of his deal would be $60m/3 and that might be what a contender gives him. With what was given to pitchers so far - I Could see the Jays having to pony up $88m/4 or $100m/5. Are we comfortable with that? Indeed, this still may be low - I mean the agents for Ryu could very well make the case their client is a better pitcher than Wheeler. So they could argue the AAV should be higher at $25 million per so $100m/4. Yes Wheeler is higher upside etc but Ryu has the statistical results and stats talk. The contract would run until he turns 37 - plenty of pitchers are still good at 37 - but will Ryu be good?

A solid innings eating if unspectacular starting pitcher. If he just does what he has done he's a fine placeholder. The Jays will not be making anything even remotely close to a playoff run for two years but they need some pitchers to hold the team together and win enough to create a bit of a winning atmosphere for the young guys. You really don't want to be down 5-0 by the 3rd inning every game. The Jays can't afford or won't afford Ace pitchers so signing 2 guys like Roark and having depth and pick up some relievers - might get you to 80 wins or so.

It seems they have had a lot of money come off the books in CC Sebathia and Didi. Does anyone have a link to their payroll?

Well them the Yankees. It actually doesn't impact the Blue Jays too much since they were already 36 wins better than us. It does give them a pitcher who can actually shut down opposition in the playoffs. That's what they needed really - they are already a playoff team - but they needed a true ace - perhaps the best pitcher in the AL. For the Jays or other horrible teams to be able to sign Cole - they would have probably needed to come up with an 10 year $360million offer as a minimum. The good news is that the Yankees didn't also land Strasburg. If I am the Yankees though I would sign Bumgarner and Ryu. That would make for a very solid rotation with plenty of playoff experience. The great thing about the Yankees is that the money or worrying about $ per war is second to trying to win the world series. They are quite fine overpaying and in a 7 game series they have a much better chance to win that series with Cole than with Happ. Upgrading 4th starters with an Ace improves your chances. To be fair we upgraded Clay Buckholtz with Chase Anderson - so that is something

Yes perhaps negative but it's reality. There is this thing called talent. Teams with it tend to win games. The goal is to win the division or at least make the playoffs. If the teams already ahead of you already have much better players than you, and they sign much better players than you sign. Well tell me gow we are supposed to compete. I get that 2020 is a write off but 2021 we are supposed to compete. Help me see it.

The Team that wears the Big Boy pants. Meanwhile the Blue Jays are deciding if they can afford a 2/$8m deal with some fringe nobody by the name of Lindbolm/Lindbalm/Lickdonkeyballs. It doesn't matter - the Jays are a 67 win team. - They would need to sign Cole, Strasburg, Rendon - the two best free agent relievers, retain Giles, and get a competent CF. The Jays will do none of these things because they can't do all of these things. 36 wins behind the Yankees - that is a lot of ground to make up. Beyond Nate Pearson - is there another projected top of the rotation arm in our system who will make the show in the next 3 years? The team with 103 probably signs Cole - the 4th place 67 win Jays will land some butt fungus of a pitcher we will regret signing after we see his first start. And after we get no hit 11-0 by Cole. Let's all get excited by signing Tanner Roark and trading for Chase Anderson - a guy who can't even make it as a full time rotation piece he was so mediocre. On the plus side - My expectations are so low with the Blue Jays for the next 5 years of no higher than 3rd place and no shot at a playoff that I can now sit and enjoy just watching baseball. None of the stress of playoff baseball for me. Does the ole ticker some good.

Do the statistics also account for quality of batters/teams faced? Back in the ole days you could pretty much look at WHIP and say hey the guy is probably pretty good if his WHIP is around 1 to 1.2. Pretty crappy if it is 1.4