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David Samson on the Vlad deal

Usually, if it is the last year of a GM's deal - they hire someone new at the end of the season not the end of the calendar year to make decisions. Shapiro's contract ends 2025 and Atkins 2026. But it appears, given Shapiro's talk of the future, that he has probably signed an extension.

Blair, Barker and Morosi on the fan 590 (Sportnet) all feel that Shapiro has been extended given the Kirk signing and the way Shapiro talked about Vladdy (as he's never done that in the past) and that he talked about signing him ppossibly during free agency which implies that he (Shapiro) is going to be here in free agency. https://www.sportsnet.ca/590/blair-barker/david-samson-balances-the-jays-books-over-unders/

Blair and Barker - Barker doesn't think they should have extended Kirk when has another year under contract, is coming off two poor offensive years and hasn't caught more than 90 games. So here's one issue. The Jays are $50m apart on Vladdy over possibly a 14-year contract. That is an extra 3.5m a year to meet Vladdy's demand. The Kirk contract shouldn't be a hindrance since he is the only player on the books for 2030. The Kirk deal is a gamble but they always talk about risk - if Kirk goes back to his career offensive year and catches 110 games then he would likely get a $80m/5 year deal from someone. And they're signing him before he turns 32 - so it's pretty decent when you factor in the Canada factor. You should try and keep guys who want to stay here and that often means we have to overpay.

It was discussed on Blair and Barker that like with Soto - Rogers sat down to talk to the player and agent. It wasn't enough in either case.

He doesn't have enough of a supporting cast around him to win now. No farm system with elite players coming. The Jays already need another bat. I get that fans want him but he could be lousy as early as his 33 season. But hey it's not my money. If the Jays offered him $450m I can see that being way over their valuations. Somebody else can pay him - the Jays can make a run at someone else on a shorter deal like Kyle Tucker. Rogers apparently spoke directly to Vlad and tried to sign him so none of this is on Shapiro. The owner got involved and it wasn't enough money. So it goes.

I know I just dumped on Vlad but to be fair to him a little bit - he has not had anywhere near the protection in the line-up that Soto had. I mean the Jays had Vlad and a bunch of s***** hitters all around him. I mean Kirk, Varsho, no Bo for most of the year and he was atrocious when he did play and Springer. I mean eesh. Meanwhile, Soto had Judge the whole year. So Vlad had a monster year with no protection - so he does deserve some big credit for 2024. I am sure the Jays' offer to Vlad was a good one. Before Soto signed they offered him what would have been by far the largest offer to any first baseman in history. So I don't want to be too judgemental of Rogers here. There is no harm in waiting until free agency if the player isn't giving you a hometown discount. Judge ended up signing back with the Yankees. The reality is that the Jays have not been able to win with Vlad - so perhaps taking another route is better. Unfortunately, the farm is garbage so who knows where the talent is coming from. Maybe Wil Wagner will be the next Wade Boggs.

Perhaps we have to look at this more at a macro level. The Jays stunk last year with having a great year offensively from VLAD - one player does not make a winner. The fact that SOTO is grossly overpaid and will be an albatross contract in maybe 8 years (halfway through his contract) doesn't mean the Jays should follow. Soto is a bad defender and not a good runner - he is a one-dimensional player (bat) and so is Vlad. Vlad is so dumb he gets picked off second in a critical playoff game. For mega-dollar contracts I want a 5-tool player - give me someone who is a strong defender and terrific offensively - preferably a short stop or CFer. The Yankees just showed everyone what crappy defence can do in the playoffs. Now yes, they got to the WS but there is no great prize for second place. They played all year to be embarrassed on the world stage. The Jays already offered Vlad a contract that was above Freddie Freeman - you know - a better hitter and someone who has proven to do it in the clutch. Yes he's older blah blah - but I would rather have Freeman than Vlad in the ninth when you need a big hit.

Perhaps the Jays could trade a bad contract for a bad contract like Montgomery for Springer. The Dodgers have endless money and none of their pitchers are likely to throw 150 innings let alone 200 so while they have a bunch of studs they are not really innings eaters - so they kind of need 10 starters.

Anthony Santander is the same age as Pete Alonso (30) Tony Taters had a slightly higher WAR last year. Can folks explain why it would take so much more money to land Alonso? If the Jays offered Alonso the exact same deal opt out after 3 with a club option to buy out the opt out etc would he take it? If other teams saw the Santander deal why would the massively overpay Alonso now? Alonso's body shape looks far worse too FWIW so perhaps he overplayed his hand a bit. I mean, if the Jays could get Alonso, that would add the much-desired thump to the lineup, and if Bo bounces back to form, he is, in effect, another star you're adding to the lineup that we didn't have all last year. Again, $14 m AAV for Alonso seems like a good deal if it can be had. With defence up the middle and power on the corners, Varsho can make up for weaker defenders on the sides.

Yeah, we don't know what was going on behind the scenes and what Roki was looking at. Some broadcasters with knowledge of Japanese culture noted that it wasn't about the money itself but that the contract should be the highest offer on the International market. Who knows. Clearly there is some truth to it if the Dodgers are trading for more pool money. The Jays gambled here, and they lost. It's frustrating to continually be runners-up, but taking a breath for a second, the fact is we are continually second place in spite of the fact that we're last place in the AL East with no longer-term stars, an awful farm system with no star talent on the horizon, management not under long-term contracts, and not in a "movie star" climate. I think that says a helluva lot for Canada and Toronto. I just wish the Jays management accomplished what they said they were going to do when they took over the team and be like the Dodgers having high-quality talent coming through the farm and win year after year. I still think they should trade Vlad - get 4 high quality prospects to beef up the farm then sign Santander and Alonso to replace him. They would be a better team in 2025 doing that.

I think the Jays should ask high and see what can be done. Brandon Sproat, Jett Williams, Tong (Canadian) and Acuna. I doubt you can get Vientos because he's a bit of a fan favourite there and it is only 1 year of Vladdy. Still, maybe you can strengthen the return by adding something to go along with Vlad. Freeing up $28.5. which can be handed out to other free agents while strengthing your prospect depth for a player you're not going to sign anyway makes sense. Toronto fans are fickle - they show up if you win. The Jays probably have a better shot at winning by getting 2 premium prospects 2 good prospects signing one of Santander/Alonso/Bregman and another good bullpen arm than just keeping Vlad for one more year. I don't see why the Mets would have too much issue trading some prospects as they can spend and don't want to wait around 3 years to see if a prospect actually works out. I suspect this is the reason they have not been all in on Alonso because they know they're going all in for Vladdy next off-season.

July 2019. The first time I went to Roger's Center - Jays won 2-1 - Smoak was the hero that day.

Baltimore is a much better team and has far more talent than we do - it helped to finish last for like a decade to get top draft picks - and hit on those draft picks to their credit. They are well-managed. But if you take The Yankees, say and had they lost Soto for the entire year, and Cole for the entire year and their closer for the year and their set-up guy for big portions and their next best reliever had his kid get run over and miss big time and come back and stink - you get the idea. They don't make it to the WS. I am not that interested in the overall numbers in days lost to IL - Teams have 1-26 man rosters - if team 1 loses 3 of the top 5 guys on their team and team 2 loses the bottom 8 guys - team 1 is more affected than team 2. It's easy to replace your back-up catcher, 4th outfielder and 6th starter. Credit Baltimore - they lost key guys but they have a deep minor league system - when they call guys up they perform. The Jays were running guys like Bradley Zimmer in 2022 that I still can't get over - he was a walking strikeout. He struck out 45 times in 89 at bats. Strangely, it seemed like he struck out more. So yeah, all this kind of crap is on Ross and Shapiro for not developing and drafting or signing better international free agents. I mean it also doesn't help that the best ones get caught for PEDs (Martinez) or are glass (Tiedeman). I'd rather live in Toronto or Niagara Falls than Orange County - been there - meh. I mean the Jays and Toronto must have something the man likes because if it's about on-field production and winning Baltimore, Boston, New York Yankees, New York Mets, San Francisco, Atlanta, Arizona, Kansas City, Texas, and Detroit all seem to be above Toronto on the brighter future front (at least short term). Many of these offer a nicer climate and better farm systems and most have star players locked down for years. Toronto has no star locked up, no farm system, the same climate as NY. So it has to be intangibles like the people, the city. Endorsements seem odd to me - Tim Horton's Roki donuts? What's the angle there?

Trying to be objective, which is tough being a Canadian, but I have been to San Francisco, San Diego, Los Angeles, and Seattle multiple times. Born in Toronto but lived in British Columbia most of my life. If I had to choose a city as a place to actually live - I would choose Toronto (or the outlying areas) out of the teams still in it (and it's not particularly close). Canada is IMO a better country than the US. granted it's probably not so much better for multi-millionaires where some of the Canadian "advantages" are more geared toward the middle class and poor but still. I've also been to Tokyo and Fukuoka and I get more of a vibe that Canada and Toronto would be a little more like home for him. It's hard to put into words - but clearly, Toronto isn't in the running for the on-field talent or playoff contention for 2025. To be fair though the Jays have made the playoffs 3 of the last 4 years and while last year was rough it's hard to lose your closer, your star SS, a setup guy, and your CY young finalist for the year and be expected to have that sort of depth waiting in the minors. Sure other teams have injuries but it really depends on WHO gets injured. It was going to be impossible for the Jays to make the playoffs with critical pieces of the team being hurt. If Swanson and Romano were there all year and pitched to their capabilities all year and Bo was 2023 Bo and Manoah bounced back (and was looking quite good before he got hurt) you have to think that the Jays make the playoffs. I think that the Jays appeal here is perhaps a bit underrated - they are probably still in third place among the finalists but man - I'd pick living in Toronto and Canada over LA or SD or America - in spite of the snow.

What about $500m/16 - that is $31.5m a year. If you can defer some of it to lower the overall hit. That would be a big enough number so he can Flex but perhaps the actual hit will be in the low $400m range where the Jays can absorb it. No one will really care about the last 3-4 years. That will be some other GM's problem.

I tried to donate a couch to a charity - I can't remember if it was Diabetes or Salvation Army - they came to my place to pick it up and turned it down because it was a floral print. Sure it's out of style - but the thing is really well built and in perfect condition with real wood not some MDF junk from IKEA. I had to deliver it to Value Village where they sold it within the week. So somebody didn't care that it had flowers on it - I mean just put a blanket over it or reupholster it. I understand why people trade in cars to dealers - they lose money - yes - but sometimes the hassle and time aren't worth it. I remember trying to sell my Kia SUV and people asked me if it was a 7-seater. It says right in the ad 5 seater. uggh. I sold it to a dealer. Kia offered me $9k. GM dealer gave me $11,500. I could have sold it for $13,000. But I was moving overseas and I tried to sell it for about a month with no takers so I took the $11,500. The manager also offered me a job when I returned to Canada. I have an appreciation for salespeople - they have to deal with this stuff all day every day - we deal with it now and then when we want to sell 1 or 2 things. eesh.

Exactly. You keep him until you can make an upgrade. While his WAR isn't great he does provide innings and would be a solid number 5 starter. The problem is that for the Jays he's pegged as their number 3. Gausman is no longer an ace and Berrios is a good number 4 on a great team borderline number 3 on a decent team but number 2 in Toronto. I am not sure why Atkins and Shapiro insist on going for it in 2025. I am trying to be optimistic that Vladdy will have an MVP calibre year, Bo will be the AL hits leader he was in previous years and the pitchers will all have career years. Trading Bassit and signing cheaper starters with similar numbers makes little sense because those teams that would acquire Bassit could just - umm - sign those free agents with similar numbers for less money themselves and they wouldn't have to give up prospects. The problem for the Jays is that it seems they are always unprepared for market inflation. Their valuations seem to be well behind the market. Sean Manea was mediocre in 2022 and 2023 is 32 years old and had a good 3.0 WAR in 2024. He got $75m for 3 years. That's the market Mr. Atkins. Any offer to Vlad has to start with at least a 4 (now probably a 5) - that's the market. So you either play in that market or you don't - but don't be in between - that'll kill you. In Between gets you average teams that can maybe scrape into the playoffs and get bounced quickly. The Jays have shown us exactly that. You go all in and sign Santander AND Alonso AND Hoffman AND Tanner Scott AND Bregman and you try to bludgeon your way through with middling starting pitching - or you should blow it up and trade everyone and start over acquiring a massive prospect haul. Signing only one from that group does nothing. And they don't have the money to do all that. You would think there would be many teams out there that would give you a pretty decent group of prospects for Vladdy Berrios and Gausman. Frees up a slew of cash as well. Retool for 2026 or 2027.

Giminez is Bo's replacement at shortstop when Bo walks. Alonso could be Vlad's replacement. Signing Santander and Alonso would be pricey but not as pricey as Vlad and Bo - with money saved you can address other needs - not to mention whatever haul you can get for these two at the deadline. But then if you added Alonso and Santander to go with Bo and Vlad - you suddenly have a pretty good offensive quartet. With management on the hot seat - this might be the way to go. Salary is high for this year but you have built-in replacements for 2026 where you can absorb the loss of Vlad and Bo. It's about building a winner - you can do that without Vlad and Bo - spreading the money around.

This forum seems a bit behind. On my phone it seems to remember where I was months ago. If some quotes me and replies to me on other forums I get a message in alerts and if I click on it it takes me directly to the post that replied to me. On this site ... nothing. Don't know if anyone replied to me. Long mega threads seem kind if dumb. Every other forum have numerous subtopics the stay on one topic. This forum won't allow political talk, which makes sense to avoid arguments and name calling, but then everyone here seems to do that anyway. If you're going to call people ****ing cock gobblers then at least do it over politics or religion than some dumbass thing like whether you agree with pulling Swanson in the 7th or not pinch hitting for Varsho.

I am in the camp that you try to win the world series or you don't. Scraping in with a wild card when you know the Dodgers will blow you away in a WS to me is pointless. No one remembers the teams that lost. Unless you embarass yourself like the Yankees lol. The Jays, to be blunt, needed to sign Soto and Burnes and Bregman and Teo/Santander and a legit closer and 2 other arms and the Dodgers would still be better though we would have been a contender. I suppose building for the wild card and hope to get lucky and hot at the same time is one way to go. As for Atkins and Shapiro, they have built a near luxury tax paying team, a terrible farm system with zero impact players coming. Signed long bad contracts to Springer and Ryu and Morales where no other teams were going long. Springer is so bad at this point he should be released. It's pretty sad when you have to talk about a right fielders defense. Eesh. I could live with him if he were your 9 hole hitter but we already have a bunch of guys who would bat 9th on good teams like Varsho, Gimenez, Clement, and Kirk. I think it's time to be a good GM and President and blow it up. You should be able to get a pretty impressive haul for Berrios, Gausman, Vladdy, Bo, and Kirk. Then at the deadline trade the relievers amd maybe Bassit if he rebounds from last season. Houston and Baltimore were good because they finished last for years getting high draft picks and talent. It helps when you don't miss.

The question is does the Jays' brass have the stones to tell Jays' fans the following: Unfortunately, we tried to go all in acquiring several elite players. However, free agents made other choices as is their right. We have also made extension offers to our current star players and they have chosen to test the market. Therefore we are looking to retool for 2027. Then trade all players whose contracts end in 2025 or 2026. All under the management of your new president and GM Kim Ng.

TEO - Sign with a team that has a legit chance to win a world series or sign with the Jays. Bwahahaha. Easy choice for Teo.

Not sure why anyone thinks Atkins' job is on the line. He survived pulling Berrios and he survived last year. Rogers loves Shapiro and Shapiro and Atkins are clearly a package deal. Best buddies for like 20 years going back to Cleveland. They promised a great farm with continuous talent coming through and winning teams etc. Our starting pitching is predicted to be abysmal next year apparently with projected regression abound. Our pen is still lousy. There are too many holes. I am not sure why they are not rebuilding. The Astros have been able to make hard choices trading away top players or letting them go to free agency. Tampa is a master at it. Jays need to do the same. If you aren't going to pay the free agent prices then you need to draft and develop. If you suck at drafting and developing you need to hire people who are good at it. Maybe hire the guys away from Tampa triple their salaries and bring in dome talent.