Key22

The Yankees are probably the favorites but What is the penalty for going over the luxury tax threshold - the Yankees CLAIM the don't want to go over but what is the penalty? Loss of draft picks? a 1:1 financial tax? If they really are serious about not going over the threshold then they may have to be careful. So might the Dodgers. MLBtraderumours says the Cubs will not be outbid for him. I don't see the Jays having much shot at it. There is no plus coming to Canada I don't think unless Toronto has some sort of special appeal that I don't know about. It's a nice City but so is Seattle or NY etc so I am not sure what the draw is. I was born in Toronto and weather wise I would take the west coast - BC or Seattle in a heartbeat over living in Toronto. New York may not be able to give him the most money (if under LT) but they can sell him on marketing where he can make a cash windfall selling himself via promotions of products that players in TO can't do. Like most free agents the Jays will probably have to offer 1-2 more years than ANY other team in baseball and will probably have to pay 2 million PER SEASON more than anyone else - so if the top bid is 6/90 the Jays would probably have to go 7/119 or 8/136 just to be considered. And AA and the Jays have the 5 year maximum BS thing. To be honest I doubt AA and the Jays put in a bid. But I really hope that the league lists all the teams the post a bid - IMO it should be disclosed to fans so we can see which teams are serious about winning. And at the end - all final contracts should be listed as well- hey we offered the most money but he chose Seattle cause he has a sister there or something - It can actually help the GM - if AA offers the most cash and doesn;t get him you can't really blame the guy. If it's all hush hush then Alex is ripped for being a cheap d-bag.

LOL - that's exactly the problem - in the 2011 off-season AA signed Cordero and traded for Santos - everyone complained that AA did nothing - although he tried to sign Free Agents none of them wanted to come here - even though AA offered more money in all likely-hood. Jay's stunk. 2012 off season he tried to sign Peavy but realized he was getting used. No way were free agents coming here. So makes a trade to the fans calling for his head for not "doing anything" Gave up a bunch pf pathetic no hopers for Happ and everyone in the Marlins deal - the big 5 something OPS for Hecchavarria is so hurting us now. He miscalculated on health - again 3/5 of the rotation goes down to injury (and being hit in the head) and the starting shortstop goes down - ugly. So now it's 2013 off season and half the people want him to sign free agents (who don't want to come here and use Toronto as leverage in negotiations with other teams). But they demand he does SOMETHING because we have to win in 2014. Oh but don;t sign anyone expensive but make sure you get an Ace - don't trade any of our top 30 prospects but land us Ace pitchers, a stud second baseman and the next Johny Bench behind the plate. But I repeat you can't trade any prospects. Trade Jansen for a a Cy Young winner with 6 controllable years! AA you're a bum. AA should just let it ride. The Free agents are not coming here - and the trade prices are far too high.

I don't think the trade would hurt our chances. We have Santos and Delabar who can close - Jansen is more expensive and redundant. So it's not a big step back. Saunders can play center with Gose - no hit on defense and a while a hit on offense Rasmus is a wild card. He's going to be expensive soon. The money saved would allow us to replace Beurhle with say Jiminez and Garza. That would be an upgrade to the rotation. We would solve the second base dilemma as one of those 2B will work out and the other will be the back-up infielder. Seattle doesn't need them since they have Cano and a more playoff ready back up in Izturas - he's been there. Teams value that. Walker doesn't have to be ready right away if the Jays replace Beuhrle. Now Seattle could just sign a starter who may be about as good for less money but with the trade they get as good a starter as the free agents plus a closer plus one of the best CF's in the game with pop. The rumour of Walker for Price to me is less valuable a return for the M's. They could get a true ace in Price though and that may be more attractive to them. But if they;re trying to win a WS - I'd have to think they'd want to upgrade in CF and in the pen and experience. Besides the Jays being in win now mode is kind of silly when they finished dead last with the same group of guys as they had last year.

Man he looks 38 LOL - I should not have assumed. I guess my argument though is in a year when you have protected picks - that is the year to sign multiple free agents because we'd surrender 2nd and Third slots but we'd still have our first 2 - besides AA has generally chosen fodder and saved the money for later rounds. The problem is we're in the AL East - if we were in other divisions I'd say sure three number 3 starters is probably fine. But as I have pointed out - in the NL the 5 teams that made the playoffs - all 5 were ERA leaders 1-5. In the AL - team ERA again shows most important. All teams were in the top 7 in ERA. KC was first but scored 100 less runs than the next closest playoff team and 200 fewer runs than Boston. Had they had a reasonable offense they would have made it in. The Jays need to have a top 5 ERA. The pen is fine - it was something like fourth. But Dickey and Beurhle while actually pretty good were surrounded by disasters. Adding one guy doesn't do it. And hoping on Morrow is not an option. Morrow, Romero, Happ, Hutchison, McGowan, Jenkins, Drabek, Rogers, Stroman, Nolin, as a collective group should be considered as the fifth starter option. One of them MIGHT MAYBE make it as the fifth starter or use them all in the role and get some production out of it. That leaves 1-2 slots in the rotation because I don't think you can expect that Beurhle or Dickey will be better than they were last season. It could happen with Dickey but you can;t really expect it like you can from say a Felix Hernandex or Lee. So you slot those guys in as 3-3 starters. Both solid number 3 starters. On a good team they would be the 3-4 starters. With the Jays they're 1-2 starters and in the AL East that's not good enough. I'm not sure any of the free agents are any better. But if you have four number 3 "floor" guys that's pretty good. Jiminez is kinda that "floor" guy - he did win a Cy Young not that long ago and does flash ace level stuff - so does Dickey so does Morrow in fact. I think two is the minimum and they should be as good or better than Dickey/Beurhle - the team ERA has to be better than the 4 teams ahead of us. With the Yankees, Tampa and Boston pitching staffs that is no easy task. Or we're going to have to score 100 runs more than those teams - and that's not happening.

Yeah the trade idea was meant in jest but you know Seattle is going for it and Rasmus/Beurle Jansen package for a Walker/Franklin/Ackley package could be somewhat enticing over JUST getting Price. Sure Price is better than Beuhrle but at Safeco on grass and a solid 200 innings and good clubhouss guy etc etc is a very very solid number 3 starter. Add in Rasmus who was what the second best ranked CF in the AL last year? Good defensively and solid power. Jansen was a terrific closer giving the M's and incredible back end of the rotation. Izturas would be a proven back up middle infield replacement for Cano and Happ would serve as fifth starter/sing man. That's a pretty impressive group of players. They would take on the high salary of Beurhle but that salary offsets the low salary of Rasmus. The Jays get a Stud starting pitcher who is not ready yet but soon, A capable cheaper CF in Saunders whose numbers may increase at Rogers, two good second baseman and a gamble on Montero as a DH/1B. But the Jays pocket the salaries - $19m for beurhle, 5 million for Happ, 4.5 million Jansen, Rasmus 2.7 million, 3 million on Izturas. Seattle gets the better players and seem to be in win now mode. With the $30 million in salaries saved the Jays can afford two starting pitchers. So Walker, 2 starting pitchers, Ackley, Franklin, Montero. Rasmus and Jansen has to be enticing to most clubs and Beurhle too given that his contract while high in AAV is short.

LOL - then the Jays are going to finish in last place. They have 2 starting pitchers that you can pretty much count on for 200 innings - and when I say count on these guys are what 38 and 39 years old - So "count on" here is a little optimistic. If AA is slotting in Morrow, Happ and Hutchison in an AL East rotation then they may as well blow it up and get prospects. None of these guys can be counted on for 100 innings let alone 190+ which is what is probably needed. I am not sure if the Jays would have to surrender their 11th pic (as it was the 10th last year) in signing free agents. If they do - that may make them lear on guys like Jiminez - but if the 11th pick is protected then I'm not sure what they're waiting for. They clearly have money.

AA claims to be trying to get 3 starting pitchers and possibly a 4th - well since starting pitching is the biggest key to success in baseball - we'll have to wait and see what he gets. If he signs Garza, Santana, Jiminez and Tanaka - then we may have a shot at this thing after all! Trade Lind to the Pirates for 2 prospects - send those prospects and Sanchez to Chicago for Smartypants and then trade Rasmus, Izturas, Beurhle, Happ, and Jansen to Seattle For Taijuan Walker, Franklin, Ackley, Saunders and Montero.

When AA took over and when he was considered a GOD of GM's he said at the very beginning that he would take high risk high ceiling guys. As he noted from the very beginning that is easy to sign major league players to fill holes - it's very hard to sign all-star caliber players. So the view is to draft guys who could possibly become Roger Clemens type arms who may but over 3 guys who will definitely turn out to be JA Happ. Sure you can sign 3 JA Happs or you can roll the dice on 3 guys like Clemens - maybe none of them work out but if one does - then it makes the entire draft for that year. And this is the truth of the Jays' situation - no good free agent will sign here - the FA can sign for the same money and play on a proven winner. Unless the Jays pull a Seattle Mariners and pay $70 million more than New York's offer to land Cano then we're not getting the cream of the free agent crop. the only hope to get star caliber winners with big WAR that everyone wants is to draft them and wait 5-7 years (too long) or draft them and trade them for the star players you can't hope to sign as free agents. I certainly get the AA is bad for trading some prospects but in the AL East you need a team full of studs to win. By the time any of the draft picks are ready EE and Bautista and Rasmus would likely be gone. Do we have any draft picks that can replace Bautista and EE and Rasmus and Reyes in 3 years? With Syndergaard and D'Arnaud were we going to be able to have a farm ready to give us 5 number 3 starters or better within 3 years? Probably going to need at least 1 ace? It's as much about timing as anything else - Keeping 4 great prospects is great but in 5 years even if all 4 work out as predicted/hoped you still only got 4 players. It doesn;t help if the great prospect comes up and merely replaces a guy like Beurhle - you need the prospect to come up at the same time that you got Beurle and he not only has to come up he has to give you 190+ innings of number 3 or better quality pitching because number 4 starter fodder can be found anywhere.

Roy Halladay the Knuckleballer

The Yankees broke the rule by publicly stating it. I am sure teams "get the word" to players about length and contract terms well before they hit free agency as they do with draft picks. The Yankees may get hit with tempering - so what? What's the fine? Rich teams could care less about fines. Maybe if you get caught for tampering and the fine is $1 million plus the loss of your first and second round pick for 2 years plus a reduction in luxury tax space by 50% it might learn them.

What is the success formula. The jays won two world series titles - But they signed Molitor and Jack Morris and Dave Stewart in the second year. The Yankees have made the playoffs all but twice in 19 years. Largely on the back of signing free agents. You can;t guarantee a WS ring but they did get themselves a better chance year in and year out than any other MLB club - by outspending everyone else. This includes their own home grown players who they resigned (that still counts as a free agent - they merely locked them up). The problem the Jays have is they can't get any free agents worth having and so they're forced to develop players or make trades (they had to trade to get Carter and Robbie too). As you noted there is not exact science in drafting - so it is completely unrealistic to think the Jays can draft an all star team. They have to blend free agency, drafting and develop along with trades. Good teams can do all three and have money to keep the best of them. The Yankess and Boston - the latter drafts as well or better than the Jays - they spend more money, they make trades that work. Free agents put teams over the top. The jays can't rely on the draft. It takes too long. The Yankees heavily win because they can afford to retain their best players and they can afford to overpay free agents. Usually that combination gets them in the playoffs - the draft? yes they got/get expensive higher end talent that fell to them because theprices were too high for the poor teams - so while they drafted at 30/31 they got better players who fell to them because KC and Houston (and probably Toronto) were too cheap. The Yankees can also afford to buy their way out of mistakes - sign a lemon free agent - no problem make a trade for some guy another team is salary dumping.

Trout. (sorry) Cano is the best second baseman in the game. But actually you're right I just peaked at his numbers and they're considerably lower than I thought (I'm an OPS guy). I thought they were higher like .980+ more like .880 - .930 and he isn't Roberto Alomar on defense. High home run rates but he's in a good line-up and has a short porch in right. Maybe I just want the Jays to do something that shows we can improve - Navarro isn't exactly - well anything.

I kind of understand what Rosenthal says but to be fair to the Mariners you have to start somewhere. Sure 2014 they may not have enough weapons as Rosenthal points out but if they sign Cano and with a decent rotation and a lights out ace - they may have enough credibility to attract free agents. If they have huge money pouring in they can buy a lot of pieces and have some trade chips to strengthen other parts. Cano should be very good for another 7 years - but plenty of players have been effective past forty at least at the plate. An average of 22.5 million for Cano for ten years is quite a good price. A lot worse players are raking in that kind of salary - Cano's the best player in the game. Seriously - Reyes Bautista Cano Encarnacion Rasmus Lawrie Lind Navarro Melky/Gose That would make me wet myself. The thing about the money talk is it's just money. The Yankees don't care if they pay more than they should pay or pay too much $ per War so long as they GET the WAR. Teams that won't overpay won't get the players and if you don't get the players you lose. Frankly if the Jays can't get the pitching I kind of wish they would walk in and offer Cano $250 million for 10 years. Or be creative and do a $130/5 year dealer (since the Jays won't go beyond 5) and then have a series of vesting options based on MVP standing and PA. If he's healthy and performs over the first 5 years a vesting option of 5 years kicks in at the same $130 million/5. A series of lesser vesting options can kick in. The contract would be $260million but with a little less risk to the team. But at $35million more it would still blow Seattle or NY out of the water. And if he does perform then he's worth the money and the vesting option. We need a second baseman. We need pitching more but sometimes you takes what is available when it's available. Cano is available - pitching really isn't. If we want a decent number 3 starter it's going to cost as Sanchez and/or Stroman. The free agent pitchers are iffy at best. Get Cano wait till next year - Romero's contract will be getting close to ending. 2014 off season maybe there is pitching - maybe the Jays have another pile of money to spend. One more year of farm system growth and trade chips.

It's actually kind of sad because I remember that first game he played here and it was hard not to get excited - 2 bombs (one to right field) four hits. Coming off a big 30+ homer season in the minors - it was an exciting game and there was a bit of hope that maybe he could be something in the Mike Piazza realm - a big power hitter with mediocre defense but young enough to learn defense to maybe become "average" which would have been ok. 148K to 15BB and .200 and poor defense is just so poor. If he could have been a 110k 50BB guy with a .230 average and 20 homers and just be "average" behind the plate he'd be fine.

I don't think it matters - the Jays won't spend more than $10 million a free agent this off-season. I hope I'm wrong but I get the sense they're not in on any "good" free agents - they'll talk the talk but the Jays need to have a rotation that can trump Boston, New York, Baltimore, Tampa. If the Jays do not have a rotation that is superior to their rotations we will not beat them - period with multiple exclamation points. If we signed 2 of the 3 of Tanaka, Santana and/or Jiminez we'd have a shot. Otherwise I see the 5th best rotation. And our offense is not better than at least 2 of those clubs so I'm not seeing anything too exciting this off-season.

Once again teams who were already better than us sign VASTLY better players at the same position. To gain ground the Jays will have to start the season with a better overall pitching staff who will put up a better team ERA than Boston or the Yankees. Time will tell but so far it doesn't look to good. Do a position by position analysis - mainly of the starting rotation. Eeesh - AA is going to need some serious pitching - and there isn't enough on the FA market I'm afraid.

Okay if the solution is that the Rays are better managed then pay their entire front office, on field coaching staff, manager and scouting staff - 5 times their current salary to walk in and and replace our lot. Pujols went something like 402nd overall. The draft and knowing which minor leaguers will turn out seems to be a total guess. Surely, with all the video, scouts, number crunchers and deep analysis they can figure out who is a can't miss and who is a future no hope hack. I mean Travis Snider was the 7th best prospect in the game - Jesus Montero was ranked 1 or 2. It amazes me they can be so so far off the mark. Last year they were saying Syndergaard was likely a future middle reliever - then 4th starter and now possible ace. Tampa has gotten pitching - it's that simple - pitching wins. The 5 NL teams that made the playoffs led the league in ERA - took up spots 1-5. In the AL it was 5 out of the top 7 with the best team ERA. If the Jays can have a top three team ERA with their offense it SHOULD be enough to make the playoffs - even if they have gaping holes at catcher and second base. PITCHING PITCHING PITCHING. Romero melting down and Morrow and Johnson injured for most of the year didn't help. Depth is all well and good but few teams have Cy Young caliber pitchers waiting in AAA for call-ups. The Jays should throw everything at the kitchen sink to get Tanaka and Jiminez - not because the latter is a stud or the former is going to be Yu Darvish - but they need 5 pitchers - they need to get a top 3-4 ERA - the Pen looks solid - they have depth with injured pitchers back. Basically they need a bunch of promising bodies to fit around Dickey and Beurhle. Guys who can toss 6-8 innings of 3-4 runs and just be decent consistently. Get a decent catcher who can actually catch and call games and we have a chance.

The Jays front office has always been in a difficult situation. Generally Toronto is a middle of the league team - typically getting the 15th overall pick. Generally elite talent is taken there - there are no Price's or Trouts to be found (generally). It's more or less hit or miss. When you finish dead last for 10 straight years like the Rays you get top 3 picks every single year for a decade. And since they were dead last every single year there was never a motivation to trade minor league talent because they were never in any sort of a run to the post-season. So they kept EVERY player and basically fielded teams of stand in dregs to hold the fort until the kids were ready. Toronto never had the prospects and they kept finishing third in the division - they had and still have good Major league pieces that other teams would covet - Halladay, Delgado, Encarnacion, Bautista etc. They field teams that make you think they're pretty close. And the Jays have money so they add pieces and hold onto pieces they probably should move. Tampa has no money - they tell their fans. Everyone knows - so when the impact player they have is close to free agency they trade the guy for 3-5 prospects usually getting 1-2 back that help the team. The cycle is refreshed with a new impact player under control for 3-6 years on the cheap. If the Jays can finish last for the next 10 years we could have 10 first overall picks and if we trade all the players on our team over the age of 27 we could probably get to the point where we would have BY FAR the best farm system in all of baseball within 3 years. We should be able to get 1 top 50 prospect each for Rasmus, Bautista, Encanacion, Reyes. So that would be 4 top 50 prospects plus 3 first overall picks for finishing last for the next three seasons - assuming we choose well that would be 7 of the top 50 prospects in the game added to our system where I am sure we could scrounge up 2-3 very good ones. SO say 10 really good prospects at elite or borderline elite level. Then it will take about 3-4 years to develop the players. So if we started now by dumping the entire team for prospects and deliberately throw games to finish dead last - hire Buck Martinez to manage. Make JPA the number 3 hitter. Let Romero be the ace and promise him 100 pitches per start no matter the score. Then sign 4 scrubs that the Astros release to slot in 2-5. Spend no more than $25 million payroll. Hoard the money for 2020. $125 million banked for 5 seasons is $625 million +$150M payroll for the 2019 and 2020 seasons the Jays would have $925million to spend on free agents (posting fees etc) - then in 2020 with the A-list farm system and nearly a billion for payroll the Jays could double the asking prices of all free agents at the time - bring in the best 5 free agents each year for two years - 10 players added to the 10 studs we developed and AA will look great. But you gotta wait 6 more years and we have to finish dead last. If a manager finishes with more than 50 wins he should be fired for competency.

It's very depressing when our target at catcher who is coming off a year where he hit .198 and had a .567 OPS and is 33 years old and likely won't hit for a .700 OPS again is what is getting people excited. The 4th place Yankees get McCann - the fifth place Blue Jays get? May as well bring Zaun out of retirement.

All the War blather - the top 5 NL teams that made the playoffs had the top 5 team ERA. In the AL No team outside the top 7 in team ERA made the playoffs. KC was first but scored 100 few runs than the next closest team and 200 less than Boston. You could have a team of 10 war players at every position but if you're last in team ERA you're not making the playoffs. McCann of course joins a team that is better than Toronto. So whoever the Jays get to play catcher will not be as good. So they get better than us at catcher no matter what we do. Sure by year 4 they may suffer but by then they'll simply buy someone better. But catcher quality in wins is less important that having 5 quality starters and a first rate bullpen. We need to get the pitching and a solid catcher who makes the pitching better. But the Yankees are also looking for pitching and they have 10 times the money to spend than we do. We'll be lucky to get Scott Kazmir or Bartolo Colon.

Reyes is an all-star caliber shortstop and Beuhrle is a #3 based on numbers. Henderson Alvarez Adeiny Hechavarria Yunel Escobar Jake Marisnick Jeff Mathis Justin Nicolino Anthony DeSclafani What from this list is an all-star caliber player or a number 3 starter? All the pitchers are projected to be relievers. Marisnick is AAAA player. Hechavarria was an atrocious hitter last season and Mathis is an all glove no bat catcher and before he came to Toronto was ranked as the WORST hitting catcher in the HISTORY of Major League baseball. They could not wait to get rid of him in LA. The Jays got the best players in the trade. Now if anyone on the Marlins "get" list turns into something special then and only then do you call this a bad trade. Reyes got hurt but he was excellent before and pretty solid after the injury.

That is true - but even if the player and team come to an agreement - there is $80million lump sum cash payout that does not go to payroll. I'd love them to do it but it does make their "poor us and evil big spending American Verizon is going to kill us little guys" argument rather laughable.

Done! The Yankees are said to be willing to post at $75million+. So I'm not sure the good it will do. Can Rogers justify $80 million when they're complaining that American telephone companies are coming in. On the one hand crying poverty and on the other dropping $80million just to talk to the guy and then dole out another 80 million. With private owners in New York they can do whatever they want because it's their money. Corps have a tougher time if they dole out cash and then don;t give raises to their employees. And if they CAN in fact post and justify it then they should be able to outbid most teams.

On another board I noted that all the playoff teams last year had the top team pitching ERA with the exception of the Royals who led the AL but score 200 fewer runs than Boston and 100 fewer runs than the lowest AL team to make the playoffs. In the NL the teams in were all the league leaders in ERA. Toronto was 12th. You need a team that scores runs - don't care how but the team needs to score about 700 runs and have an ERA around 3.6 and they will likely get into the playoffs. Maybe a bit better given the AL East. The team on paper looks better this year going into spring training. 1. _____ 2. Dickey 3. Beurhle 4. _____ 5. _____ Depth looks far better with injured players back (One of these slots into the 5 spot): Happ, Morrow, Rogers, Hutchison, Jenkins, Redmond, Romero, Nolin, Drabek, McGowan, Stroman Then the Jays look for a top of the rotation started 1-3. And an solid healthy innings eating starter to be a number 3/4. Jiminez is the best FA starter because he has the biggest upside of the lot and has flashed brilliance at times. Garza is a chandelier. Santana and Tanaka will cost too much. Jiminez being brought in as the number 4 starter takes the expectation and pressure off him. Then you make a trade to get a starter at top - an ace isn't likely but a solid 200 innings 4 era number 2-3 would at least allow the offense to have a shot. I don;t think the team can rely on Morrow - also a chandelier and Romero is possibly done. Hutchison can't be relied on for a big number of innings.