Key22

Nothing wrong with IKF but Texas ALSO gave out massive contracts to Seager, Semien, and picked up expensive starting pitchers and had people to trade. The Jays did the right thing by trying to land the best player in baseball. Amd they will be doing the right thing if they avoid long albatross contracts to Bellinger and Chapman. The reality is the Jays are a pitching and defense team. What they need is star power all around players who can hit and play defense. There are none available via free agency and the Jays do not have trade chips to get it done. Well unless they trade Tidemann but that would probably be a mistake. The Jays could do what AA is doing and trading for bad contracts and get a player they actually want.

I think the main problem with Shatkins is all the talk about a sustainable winner when you have a pedestrian team with a $230m payroll, and a bottom 5 farm. There is nothing in the minor that is going to transform the team on offense. That leaves dumpster diving or doing out huge money to iffy players like Chapman and Bellinger. Chapman is not a big bat. Bellinger is a huge risk. IKF replaced the gloves at third, and can sub an injury to Bo. He can't hit but then I'd rather pay 7million a year to IKF who can't hit than 180m to Chapman who can't hit. The Jays have to take it on the chin for 2024. Build a better farm, wait until next free agent class. Hope the pitching gets you through. Hope Vlad doesn't s*** the bed again. Hope Springer isn't cooked.

The problem with Bellinger is that he wants at least 7 years so signing him for the 2 years Bo and Vlad are here means you could be stuck with an albatross for 5+ years. And if 2023 is what Springer is then we are stuck with an albatross for 3 seasons already - do you really want two albatrosses - I remember when we stuck with Vernon Wells - eek. 2 of them at the same time? And our farm is apparently bottom five. It's a little tough to keep trying to defend Ross Atkins guys - we spend a lot more money than teams who went further in the playoffs and who have better farm systems. Bellinger and Chapman would be good gets on 3-year $60-$75m contracts but 5-8 years? They're bad contracts. The Jays did this and failed with Ryu and Springer's contract is looking bad - he can't catch up to 95mph anymore which is basically 95% of all back-end bullpens. Fortunately, we have a solid pitching staff and that carried us last year and hopefully will again. Realistically though this is a team that is only capable of WC aspiritions and then you cross your fingers and hope that they can score some runs. When I listened to Blair and Barker - the latter harped all year on the fact that when you put our best players up against better teams like the Phillies - no one in our line-up was striking the element of fear into the hearts of pitchers. All you have to do is pitch down and away to Vlad and he will either strikeout or ground out. He's a one-dimensional hitter. Barker noted that most of the lineup can't hit the elevated fastball. That said - I still think you can add a Rhys Hoskins, JD Martinez type on a 1-2 year deal to add some thump in the line-up and extend the quality somewhat. Maybe the Jays know something about Horwitz and Schneider - that these guys will make an impact. It would be nice for the Jays to get lucky once in a while and have someone come out of nowhere and turn out to be a stud. Manoah and Kirk were sort of those guys - but the league adjusted.

The problem is if you tie up that money - it's fewer dollars next year to get someone "great." Bellinger's hitting metrics were pretty terrible last year - his old school numbers look good but outside of the park he was in - it was said that he would have only hit 16 homers. $200m for a guy who will hit 16 homers. The Jays are stuck - there is nothing out there that will truly move the needle over last year - if they resign Chapman and sign Bellinger that replaces Chapman (with himself) and Belt (Bellinger). And you still have to replace KK, Hicks, Ryu, Merrifield. I don't see what we can do to improve over last year.

Well give the Yankees some time - they already traded for VASTLY better hitter than any Blue Jay. They can easily sign the best three pitchers on the free agent market to put their rotation above ours. The game is played on the field but the prize is the World Series, not a wild card - and we're a much worse team right now than we were when the season ended. We have a bottom 5 farm system and there are no free agents that are exactly thrilling or "put you over the top" types. I guess I can't see what the Jays could do here to dramatically make us a 95-100 win team.

The Dodgers have agreed to something like a $7billion TV deal - the $700m is just coming off that and Ohtani will probably generate that $700m or more in other revenue for the Dodgers. They have built arguably a super team. I suppose the fun part is that every other team will be a massive underdog so it takes the pressure off. I mean there is nothing the Jays can do at this point to really improve last year's club. Maybe a win or 3 here or there but The Jays current players simply have to be better. Unfortunately, Springer is no longer Springer and 2 WAR from Vlad isn't getting it done.

Must be fun being a Dodgers fan. I think the Jays should probably sit out Bellinger and Chapman - they aren't good enough to put the team over the top - use the money next off-season to get someone worth getting.

They could adjust some of this - the posting fee should count against the luxury tax divided by the contract terms - if the player signs a 10 year deal and the posting fee is $50m it should add $5m per year to the contract - if the player opts out in year 7 then the remain posting fee should go with the player to the next team. The big market teams will still do it but it does make them think a little bit and does add more tax to the lower revenue teams. Or if you sign one international player to an over $100m contract you can't sign another for the next 3 seasons. Or make the luxury tax punishments tougher - like if you spend beyond the top threshold - you lose ALL of your draft picks for the next two seasons. If you do it a second year in a row you lose all of your draft picks for the next ten seasons. And get a $25m fine paid to EACH team below the threshold and your team owner and GM gets a kick in the nuts.

I think a 10 year 30+ million a year contract for a 5'8 pitcher is a tough ask for Toronto. I think you can get multiple players for the money on a shorter term. Perhaps Stroman - a guy who can flash Ace stuff. Someone solid. I'm a bit surprised that there has been very little talk about Snell - he won the Cy Young - what's up there I wonder? He's a proven ace.

I think the Jays have enough internal options to fill 3rd base with competent defense - and while they may not hit much - neither does Chapman. If you're going to spend the coin - I would prefer them to spend it on Bellinger since he's a much better hitter and the much-needed lefty bat. The OF defence would remain strong. No matter who we put at third - it will be a defensive drop off. The team has a lot of holes on infield defense - Bichette is below average - first base is below average. Losing Chapman isn't helping - who plays third? Orelvis, Biggio, Schneider, Horwitz, Espinal? The latter would do a good job defensively I think. At some point we need our farm system to give us something - although our farm is bottom five apparently.

So the Jays would need to go 60/3 - maybe 55/3. If others offer 40m/2 maybe we can go 50/3? Sure the last year may suck but you can eat 10m/1 the last year. I think you also need Bellinger to strengthen this lineup. I like Jim Bowden's take - he would rather spread the money around overpaying one DH. He suggests the Jays target Hader for an elite back end, also sign Bellinger, and Hoskins and bring back Chapman. Put the pedal to the metal. At 9 minutes on "All I have seen is Shapiro spend money, that's all I've seen them do." He predicts $181m/7 but thinks this is too high - colleagues say it will be over $200m. His injury and he got Covid - say he is fully healthy and has sustainable mechanical adjustments. But trades don't work as Jays have a bottom 5 farm system. No one will give anything good for Manoah as he has almost no trade value - reclamation projects. Competing with Orioles, Reds and Dodgers farm systems. The Jays can't stack up to those clubs in trades

Winker is supposedly a clubhouse problem. Seattle's Ryan Divish was asked about Jesse Winker. "I don't think he puts in the time to be better defensively or have a better arm or any of the work that should be done and really is counter to what has made this team great." There was more as well. Here are some of the highlights from that conversation on the radio. Players are tired of Winker’s act. Tired of putting up with him. The team was frustrated with him. He wasn’t even with the team and didn’t go to Toronto or Houston. The Mariners likely told him to just go home. Haniger and Winker are opposites. Haniger puts in all the work, and Winker puts in none. Not to improve defense or his arm, and just isn’t strong enough. Expected to play just by showing up. If he didn’t get to play a DH, he would essentially pout, causing other players to have to play all 18 innings. The team puts in a ton of work to get ready, and he does nothing. Doesn’t follow through with what his responsibilities are. There are going to be hard conversations with him, or they are just going to move on. When you put up one of the worst defensive seasons in all of baseball, this isn’t something that can come out about you. All year, I had tried to defend him. https://sodomojo.com/2022/10/18/mariners-jesse-winker-reportedly-odds/ If the Jays are trying to win a World Series they need to get players that will help them do that - not reclamation injury-plagued dregs. Bellinger may not be perfect but he was an MVP and he had a very solid 2023. Former GM Jim Bowden on Ohtani and also describes what Bellinger gives you now.

Yamamoto is a big fan of the limelight and being on a winner - he loves expensive watches and Rolls Royce - so he wants to be in the limelight - that is Only LA and New York. So I think the Jays are out. Phew - no need to get excited that we are in on him. Adam Jones discusses former teammate Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Yeah everyone is tradeable - it's just a matter of what you get in return. If you trade Romano and a Bassitt and get some sort of controllable big bat at 3B or LF AND you sign a Yamamoto and Hicks you don't lose in the rotation or arguably in pen and you fill a need. But free agents have to want to come here and secondly trade a big Rotation piece 200ip and a closer - the teams who want that are playoff teams so it's unlikely they are giving up a key part of their line-up. Moreover, those teams that are in it tend to have money so they can sign a FA pitcher or late-inning arm. The Fernandez/McGriff for Carter/Alomar actually favoured San Diego in terms of WAR and both players going to San Diego were more proven over the relative newbie Alomar and the one-dimensional hitting Carter. Although winning the World Series twice with Carter and Alomar being key contributors makes you quite okay with the trade. Plus that trade was easier because the Jays had Olerud at first base and Manual Lee at Short so at least defensively they were okay with him and in 1993 we got Fernandez back - 9 RBI in 6 games in the WS and a nice .423 OBP. I just don't see how you will get impact position players for 1 year of a closer like Romano. Interestingly, if the Jays were to mirror the 1992 Jays - they would arguably need to trade Bo Bichette (SS) and Vladdy (1B) - that would be today's Fernandez (SS) and McGriff (1B). If you are not planning to extend these two players (or you know Bo doesn't want to be a Jay), then you will get far more for them in the trade now with 2 seasons left and in a very weak free-agent hitters market. But the other team is going to have to give up two kinds of elite talents. Maybe there is a team out there as a trade partner but I don't see it. The Cubs have supposedly looked into Bo. Some teams might like him at third or second but I think Bo is a guy we should probably try to lock-up. The guy is a hitting machine.

I know folks are frustrated because the team went from no chance to some chance to favourites in the Ohtani sweepstakes (according to the press anyway). But when you have good pitching, you always have a chance and this team has a very strong 4 rotation and a very good bullpen. The Jays are in it even with a frustrating offense and even without Ohtani. The guy is a great player but you can't really blame him for taking the money and going to a team that has made the playoffs 11 straight years who have shown deep pockets and surround him with Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman. They trump Toronto at every turn and we should have all realized our chances were slim. The media screwed us over. Bo is an excellent player to build around. He's around a 5 WAR player so he's no slouch. There are few free-agent bats that help - I hope they're all in on signing another top-of-the-rotation pitcher because the reality is it's not just 2024 we need to look at. Yes we need bats but I don't want to overpay for mediocre bats when I can get an elite ace - worry about the offense next off season when there are better bats available. Sometimes you can't do everything in one offseason. Yamamoto should now be the number one priority - Then sign a JD Martinez for one year or even Teoscar to give us a big bat - sign some guys who are competent hitters and you never know - great pitching - score enough runs - and you put a decent product out on the field with a good chance to make the playoffs - then next offseason go after bigger bats. Tidemann may be ready to replace Kikuchi in 2025.

Cody Bellinger’s fiancée (model Chase Carter) posts Toronto photo after Blue Jays miss on Shohei Ohtani Plan B...ellinger? https://nypost.com/2023/12/11/sports/cody-bellingers-fiancee-posts-from-toronto-in-free-agency-twist/

And we can't be assured to have any starting pitching injuries for a third straight season or that Manoah will bounce back - he's a big fattie that only hits 94Mph and has no control of his secondary pitches - if that doesn't change he'll be known as a one-hit-wonder. Varsho was considered Elite defensively in CF so he covers KK. Left Field is less important so Varsho was a bit wasted in left. All they need is a competent LF and they will be fine. Third base is another matter - it's just tough to spend on Chapman where you really want big bats on the corner infield and his bat after the first month was pretty terrible. his ops was under .600 for the last 2 months as well as May and June. He was awful for 4 of his 6 months. Tough to give him $100m and 5 years and that may not be remotely enough.

Passan notes that Major League Baseball applies a discount to deferrals in luxury tax calculations to determine the present-day value of contracts. Given the fact that “most of” Ohtani’s contract is expected to be deferred, Passan suggests that Ohtani’s deal, for luxury tax purposes, is expected to settle in the range of $40MM to $50MM when all is said and done. While those numbers aren’t final and won’t figure to become exact until the contract is properly finalized and announced, that range substantially alters the impact Ohtani will have on LA’s luxury tax bill over his decade-long tenure with the club." "Ohtani’s luxury tax hit for the 2024 season were to shrink from the $70MM his on-paper AAV would suggest to a figure in the range of $45MM, that would put the club’s luxury tax payroll at roughly $219MM using the numbers supplied by RosterResource. For a Dodgers club that saw its luxury tax payroll land at $267MM last year after peaking at a whopping $293MM in 2022 (per Cot’s Baseball Contracts), that would leave the Dodgers with the ability to add upwards of $50MM before even matching their 2023 payroll for luxury tax purposes, and just under $75MM in room before their hit their all-time high." They will easily be able to give $300m to Yamamoto/and also sign both Bellinger and Snell if they want to. Indeed, without even breaking a sweat.

The reports that he is still undecided don't bode all that well for the Jays. I mean if he really wanted to be here he would be here. The fact that he is considering the North East would indicate to both NY clubs that he can be persuaded to enter the ring. With the Yanks adding Soto - adding both Yamamoto and Ohtani and Snell and Hader only makes sense, doesn't it? Cohen has near-limitless pockets too. If it is about not being in the heavy media spotlight - Toronto is the clear choice. The delay is worrying.

I think when we look at these guys it is in the context of a poor overall offensive showing especially with RISP. Also, where they hit in the line-up. If Varsho is our 9-hole hitter we would all be pretty damn happy with the guy. Elite (as in best in baseball CF defence) along with 15-25 homer pop - good bunting skills plays hard and isn't a bum on the bases. But they were batting him in the middle of the order so he looked bad. Chapman too was hitting in the top half of the order but is probably more suitable to the 7-8-hole. At the top of the order you expect more star offensive ability and last year you basically only got that from Bichette. Springer was not himself. Kirk was not himself, Vlad was not himself. 3 of your top hitters were poor and then more focus is put on the lower-tier hitters. But it's a bit hard to justify 100m/5 for Chapman or really any defence first player. A run saved is the same as a run earned but it's tougher to sell that to fans. Plus if the plan is that he is a 7 hole sort of bat then $20m+ a year is a lot. Plus, you'd rather elite d at SS and CF. The old-school team construction is that you build up the middle (C, SS, 2B, CF and Pitching). Add some power bats and your big hitters at the corners (3B/1B/LF/RF/DH) Ie; a great defensive SS/CF/C/2B is more valuable than a great defensive player on the corners. Thus, Chapman as great as he is defensively, you'd like to see more offense given his price tag. Inflation I guess. I'd probably only want Chapman on a 3-year deal - his defence is his primary attribute and that may begin to wane in the near future given his age. Although he certainly looks to be in great shape. Still, 5 years for someone who can't get around on a high fastball (like Springer) worries me because then you have to guys who won't be able to hit high-velocity relievers late in games. With the Jays right now - the only player in the order you feel confident in in a big situation is Bichette (and oddly maybe Jansen). Once Jansen decided to just swing to his strength (pull) and not try to be a spray hitter he seems to have greatly improved.

Mike Wilner on the Blue Jays meeting with Shohei Ohtani

They are prepared to spend $500m-$600m for a Pitching/DH - the appeal here is that you are landing an ace pitcher and an elite bat. As a fallback why would you not sign a $250m pitcher and a $250m bat?

I am big on trying to get the best available free agent regardless of positional need. The exception is if you have an absolute stud, say, at Shortstop then you won't sign a shortstop. But you can never have enough pitching - Manoah proved that. He was expected to be top 2 in our rotation and look what happened. I would far prefer Yamamoto to Bellinger. Sure we need offense but you have to look at more than just 2024 - you look beyond - maybe this year you can't add much offense so you strengthen the pitching and hope for Vladdy and Varsho and Kirk and Springer to improve and Jansen to stay healthy. Then next year you add a bat. I would not just let Yamamoto go just because in 2024 you need a bat. I also wouldn't mind if the Jays try to renegotiate a new contract with Kikuchi. If he likes Toronto maybe you can rewrite his 1-year deal to a new 3-year deal. It's a risk for the team but gives Kikuchi security. If he gets hurt in his walk year... you know the drill.

Well, if we don't land Ohtani - and we wind up the runner-up - we do let the baseball world know that we have a massive payroll and can sign anyone.

Assuming the Jays land Ohtani - ~$564m/12 = 47m per season. I read 500m and 600m so assuming something in the middle how does that impact payroll over the next few years? I know some people worry about draft picks but if you are a good team your first-round pick is near the bottom so you aren't likely drafting elite players. Didn't seem to impact LAD of NYY much over the many years of making the playoffs. The advantage I perceived from LAD is that they can add and add and add. Can the Jays? They land Ohtani - can they also add a year of Soto and also sign a top-of-the-rotation starter like Snell/Yamamoto? Can they also add a big bullpen arm - Hicks for example? The Angels proved that even with two MVP players in their line-up they couldn't win bugger all. The one thing the Jays have is pretty terrific pitching. Springer/Ohtani/Bichette/Soto/Vladdy/Jansen(Kirk)/Schneider(Biggio)(Horwitz)/Varsho To go along with Gausman Berrios Bassitt Kikuchi Tiedemann (Manoah) (add Snell/Yamamoto) Pen Romano Green Swanson Mayza Cabrera Garcia Richards (add Hicks) It's only money right? Rogers has plenty. I mean that sure looks good on paper