Key22

You can't lose 3/5 of a Rotation and then blame the GM for not having enough depth. And indeed, 2 of the guys that everyone rips AA for were the 2/5 that have not been hurt MB and RA. But what you can't have are players that throw teammates and management under the bus because the team isn't spending $500million on payroll. I really don't want to be paying Shields $20m per for 5 years. He's a number 3 starter who is 33 years old and stunk in the playoffs which was the ole "what have you done for me lately shtick - maybe teams haven't signed him yet because they saw something in his medicals or something. It's not like anyone is leaping at the guy. Perhaps the Jays and AA are doing what Gillick did - stand pat - trust your farm system and built pitching from within. Key and Wells came up as relievers then became starters. With time to reflect - we may have more pitching options coming. Perhaps Russel Martin is more of a miracle worker than we realize. Clubhouse shift in mentality to adding some winners in Donaldson and Martin and getting rid of whiners Lind/Jansen and mopes (Gose). Pitching is coming - we seem to have bags of pitching - 2016/2017 we could have a pretty sick starting rotation while being an interesting team for 2015.

CY Young winner who had the most quality starts over three consecutive years at $10 million a season - to get that quality on the free agent market would be $20million and no free agents would sign in Toronto if offered $18m someplace else. At the time Syndergaard was felt by many to be a reliever and D'Arnaud's catching ability was in doubt. Good bat but if he had to move to left field his bat would be average to a bit above average." Jays were going for it and with the offense - probably felt Dickey only needed o be a number 3 innings eater - that's exactly what Dickey is. The problem isn't so much with the trade at the time - as a put you over the top pitcher it was fine - the error was doing all these moves with 80ish win team. When the Jays trade for Cone the team was already viewed as a favorite to win it. So you can overpay - the Jays in this era it was about trying to win with EE and Bausta because when those guys go there is ZERO in the farm system that can replace that offense. It's fine to hang onto prospects but management (may not be AA) often rushes the plan to fill the seats. Maple Leafs have been doing this for years. In a vacuum the trade looks bad - but the goal is to win a WS. If the Jays had won as they did with Cone then all is forgiven. When you lose these things get magnified. But if they lose this year - they can probably trade Bautista for 1 top 10 pitching prospect and they can trade EE for 1 top 10 pitching prospect and probably trade Beuhrle and Dickey for 1 top 100 prospect at the deadline. They can essentially get back a Syndergaard and D'Arnaud if they're 10 games out at the trade deadline. They can get these kinds of prospects back anytime they want.

Toronto named best city in the world to live - perhaps AA should send booklets about it to every player at all levels in every country around the world so someone might stop putting us on their no trade list https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/blogs/insight/toronto-montreal-take-top-spots-for-best-places-140812272.html Although Vancouver and Victoria IMO are better places to actually live. Weather, no snow, food, no snow, pot capital of the world, no snow, more laid back, no snow and no f***ing snow.

Don't worry guys - AA has his balls in the air.

Over three seasons Dickey led the league in quality starts percentage. AA's argument was that they need to win WHILE they have Bautista and EE on attractive contracts - if those guys were free agents at 30 years old they would like get at least $20million for 7 years (each). When they go - who exactly in our farm system at the time of the trade for Dickey was looking like a stud hitting replacement. Indeed, do we have one even now? Plus not every team looks at a guy the same way. If D'Arnaud doesn't work at catcher and they have to stick him in LF what will his value be? Syndergaard may be regrettable but Kyle Drabek was hyped to the hilt back in the day with fans saying there would be no way they would trade Drabek for Halladay even straight up. Their fans were on our boards scoffing at us for even mentioning Drabek - the stud can't miss lock to be a number 2 starter (as a floor) pitcher - blah blah blah. How did that work out? The fetish for prospects is what bad teams like Toronto have to cling to because there is no light on the MLB roster. But so what - we trade a stud prospect with middling hope to actually turn out and the very next year we have a draft and then replace that prospect with 10 more future studs. When the Jays traded him - some scouts were saying he'd be a reliever. We shall see - he has to at least be a number 3 and D'Arnaud has to be a major league bat. Dickey gives you 210 innings of solid number 3 starter material. No he's not an ace but the Jays didn't really feel they needed one - they figured their offense would be fine and a guy as consistent and solid as Dickey for $10million - to get his performance with a 30 year old you'd be looking at $22 million a year for more than 5 years. So you give up the talent to offset the payroll. It was an all in move - it didn't work. But it didn't work because Romero went from solid number 2 to jock strap holder, Morrow who looked to be turning the corner into an absolute stud turned into a pumpkin and Johnson (who was risky) could have been the ace and got hurt. If Johnson had pitched to his stud numbers, Romero returned to form, and Morrow had indeed turned the corner and didn't get hurt - that rotation would have been dominant and we probably make the playoffs. Is Syndergaard going to be a top of the rotation starter? Maybe - then again maybe he is the next Kyle Drabek.

The Jays do the same dumb thing the Leafs do every single year. They refuse a full 5-7 year rebuild plan going young and building from within (though the new GM always says they will). Nor will they spend the money required to be a buy it all type of team. When they did lead the league in spending they won two World Series titles. I was excited when AA took over and was to do a "copy Tamp Bay but also spend." Tampa's problem is they finally get good players and have to trade them as soon as they cost anything. Many fans are fans of the team and the players and while the turnover helps them win games - it doesn't help fan/player attachments which does draw people to the seats. You have to win if you're going to dump your fan favorites. I grow weary of the middle ground. But at least we have some good players who are fun to watch.

And what did they win?

The Jays are not going to get Shield so the whole topic is silly. AA's policy of not commenting means that every agent in baseball can "leak" that the Jays are talking to their clients and can use the Jays to prop up interest and salaries. Sports journalists when they need to meet a deadline can also just plug in a "Blue Jays are interested in XYZ" because there is no one around to refute it. The Jays can't sign free agents - 20 years of losing, Toronto, higher taxes, Toronto, turf, Toronto, a directionless team, Toronto, perception that payroll won't be enough to compete with at least 2 other teams in the division. The Jays are not going to win with a farm based organization - for all the hoopla Tampa gets they never won. A couple of good years riding an exceptionally good pitching staff - big deal. The Jays can have a hole at 2b - so long as the defense is solid which it will be with Goins/Kawasaki. The team is probably a bit better than people think. Years ago they used to do a positional analysis of teams. So maybe it's time to stack up the Jays Rotation, Bullpen, line-up and bench against the other AL East teams and see how we line-up at 1B, DH, SS, 2B, 3B, C etc. IMO the Jays should be trying to trade Reyes if at all possible - his contract while bad is probably better than Vernon Wells.

I question the notion we're going to be an elite offensive team. We have 6 proven hitters on the team(counting Navarro). Saunders I might give you for a 7th but he hasn't proven it. Three possible black holes is two too many for a team trying to compete. Second Base isn't even the problem. This pitching staff is going to get lit up like Clark Griswold's house at Christmas. Edit - Okay so I just read the Vancouver Sun and got grouchy http://blogs.vancouversun.com/2015/01/13/toronto-blue-jays-need-to-convince-their-fan-base-that-they-are-serious-about-contending/

"Mr. Blast From the Past" expert prediction analyst. The Jays just signed Jack Morris and wow what a great boost to the staff. He's going to be the first Jays' pitcher to win 20 - book it and they will ride him to a world series victory. Fergie Olver wet himself hearing news of the signing "How FAP about FAP FAP those FAP Blue FAAAAAAAAP Jays?!

You can look at the numbers but WHIP is generally the one that tells you right away how many people are getting on base against the guy. There is a very good correlation between ow WHIP and the best pitchers in the game. You can then look at k/BB ratio and HR/9 and yes even ERA. The Guy with the 1.1 WHIP or below and the sub 3 ERA every year you can bet is in the running for CY Young. The guy with the 1.5 WHIP and the ERA of 4+ isn't. As much as ERA and WHIP get blasted the combination of those two is usually a pretty sound indicator of quality. See Mariano Rivera's WHIP compared to every other closer as an example. Sanchez in MLB level gave up few walks - 2.5/9 and few hits 3.8/9 and few home runs 0.3/9 and a 1.09 ERA. So he didn't give up runs, he didn't give up hits, of the few hits he allowed he didn't get clubbed for home runs. As for minor league stats look at other pitchers at age 21-23 and see their walk rates. Randy Johnson, Roy Halladay Clayton Kershaw. Heck Nolan Ryan from the age of 21-31 walked 5 to 6.9 per 9 innings EVERY year. He led the league in walks 8 (EIGHT) times. He only mustered a career 2.04 K-BB ratio. Only 3 seasons did he manage a slightly better than 3-1 K/BB ratio. He was worth a career 83 WAR. I want Sanchez and his 99MPH big movement fastball in he rotation until he proves he can't do it. His relief debut should earn him the "his job to lose" title.

A walk rate of 5 per 9 is fine when you only give up 4 hits. The key is to take WHIP - Walks plus hits. You can live with a guy who walks 5 and gives up 5 hits - that's better than a guy who walks 3 but gives up 7 hits as all hits are not singles but all walks are equal to a single. The kid is still young but he sure as hell didn't look like a Kelvin Escobar who also had electric stuff but appeared not to know where the ball was going. Sanchez made an adjustment in the minors apparently came up here and gave up 14 hits in 33 innings and walked 9 and struck out 27 - a 0.697 WHIP and while it is a very small sample size that is still utterly ridiculous un-hittable ELITE numbers. Remember also that he pitched 24 games - it's not like he came in and walked 6 like Kyle Drabek. It means that in 24 games he pretty much had his command and control each and every time out. Every pitcher is going to stink it up but Sanchez did the job more often than not 24 times and he did it in the AL East with a crappy defensive team. Further 5 out of the 9 walks came against Baltimore. He was also making an adjustment from starter to the pen which means less days rest. In games he had 3 days of rest or more he had 13 K's against 2 walks in 13.2 innings. I just didn't see a guy on the mound that looked like a guy struggling with command or control issues. He hit the glove and batters were looking foolish out there. When I saw him spring he looked looked pretty dreadful - complete polar opposite from Spring to August. Sanchez hasn't even filled out - he looks like a 15 year old string bean out there. With MB and Russel Martin and another year on frame bloody hell. He deserves a long long look in spring training - doesn't work you got Estrada as a back-up.

I'm more of a what have you done for me lately type over what a guy did two years ago in the minors. How was Sanchez's last 15 appearances in the minors coupled with his MLB showing? Kids make adjustments. Surrounding him with guys like MB and Russel Martin with an MLB team behind him can allow him to make some strides. He has far greater value as a top of the rotation pitcher than any position out of the bullpen. So they have to do everything they possibly can to make him stick to the rotation. Just as Cinci did with Chapman - if and ONLY if it doesn't work do you stick him in the pen. The Jays will likely find enough bodies to fill out the pen. What is K-Rod asking? Sub 1 WHIP(better than career average last year), more than a K per inning more than 4-1 K-BB rate. He's a Boris client but he only made $3.2 million last year - 44 saves and is only 33 (Jan 7). The saves number merely adds to the credibility factor for Rogers that the Jays signed an "established closer" but his peripherals were solid enough for the metrics guys to be happy as well - depending on the price.

Aniston over Cox simply because Aniston had the girl next door attainability factor and a dash of cuteness over just sexy. It might be good to be a Mormon so you don't have to choose either - just take both. My girl from the era was Kristin Kreuk - good enough for Superman god enough for me. And she has the added bonus of being Canadian. http://1280x1024desktopwallpapers.jennifer-morrison-pics.com/images/Wallpaper/female-celeb-faces/kristin-kreuk/kristin-kreuk7.jpg

I agree with trying to trade Navarro but I also think you need to improve the team - otherwise don't bother. $5 million for one year is not exactly difficult to eat since all the good free agents are off the board or won't come to TO anyway. Navarro can hit and he hits better than Smoak who is currently the 1B/DH on the team. Navarro was rated 2.1 oWAR and +0.9dWar so perhaps not as bad behind the plate as some are saying - in fact he has ranked on the plus side of the dWar side every year since 2006. He also hit left or right handers equally well. $5million for a DH who is a .700OPS kind of guy with 12 homers and 22 doubles and hits .270 and is a little better than a league average defensive catcher is not a bad guy to have around. I'd keep him unless I can get something in the pen that will DEFINITELY replace what we currently have or would be the equivalent of one of the set-up guys - a guy as good as Loup or Cecil or a notch down that is better than anyone else we have in the pen. Further, when you want to give Russel Martin a day off from Catching you can have Martin DH, EE can play first base, Navarro catches. This is a better scenario than anything involving Josh Thole. And without an Ace or a number 2 starter and a near worst MLB bullpen - we're going to need all the damn offense we can get.

Ev'rybody's talkin' 'bout David Ortizism, CC Sabathiaism, David Wellsism, Babe Ruthism, Pablo Sandovalsm, Tony Gwynismism This-ism, that-ism, ism ism ism All we are saying is give fat a chance All we are saying is give fat a chance

I suppose Delabar makes a lot of sense - I mean paying $3million for a free agent who had a terrible year but is a lightning in a bottle due to previous greatness is risky - and few have the upside in terms of filthy stuff that Delabar exhibited and is near league minimum. If that guy bounces back to his best then the guys is bloody sick. Fingers crossed! Wilton Lopez 2012 shows up and it's not as horrible as it could be. Fingers crossed. This team unfortunately has a LOT of fingers crossed - probably why we have three catchers.

C'mon they doled out $82 million - they can't sign everyone. And not everyone will come here - I wish people would actually think about this. I am going to take less money to live in a place I like any day especially when 2 million is enough to set me up for life. Anything over that is gravy. The free agents we get are either Canadian (and we still had to offer 1 more year than anyone else) or we get PED users or whatever scrap heap is left in the bin when 29 other teams pass. The Jays budget and ability to sign players will likely give us the one option you all know you want --- you betcha - He is JAPANEEEEESE - yes you know you can't live without those dance routines - It's Muni Kawasaki! A great pen, A great rotation, A great defense - baaaa - An on field dancing mascot - Priceless.

Maybe they're thinking soccer - the name has Caché

Jays signed Wilton Lopez. Didn't you guys get the memo - AA landed his set-up/closer already. Rob Rasmussan and Jeff Francis will be the LOOGYs And we got Liam Hendriks and Estrada for the right side AA said we were getting two relievers - And man he got us FOUR - count them FOUR. SO what is everyone worried about? Remember "Volatile Pens" The guy with the 2.50 ERA for 6 years in a row is volatile - so we can safely ignore Francis and his 9.00+ ERA last year - it's all just fluke with bull pens. Beeston said the payroll will go up - but you guys forgot to ask an important question - "Does payroll mean Canadian or US dollars?" Payroll will go way up in CAD.

I don't have a problem with the Jays saying let's get Saunders, Smoak, Estrada and a draft pick and ($8million) - for Melky, Lind, and Happ ($28 million). But the on field talent of the latter is arguably superior to the former. It's not $20 million better however. Nevertheless, I wish AA and the Jays money holders would decide if we're going to be in or we're going to be out. A team with 25th worst bullpen is going to have a tough time making the playoffs in the AL East. And that was 25th with Graveman, McGowan, Sanchez, Santos, and Jansen (Sanchez is now penciled into the rotation). So a 25th place bullpen lost all those guys and replaced them with - zilch. And none of the remaining free agents seem all that helpful. Ie - they could resign Jansen and they'd still be worse than they were last year. 2b is still a pile of poo CF is questionable albeit liveable (can have one black hole spot in the order) 1B is questionable if Smoak is the first baseman. Still no Ace and still no number 2 starter I like the Donaldson move - getting a stud with 4 years of control - like Martin - pricey but influencial. You got EE and Bautista under two nice years of cost control. Maybe the Jays have 3-4 studs in the minors ready to be elite shut down pen arms by April - but for the love of all that is holy - someone tell me WHO they are? Because you knwo the Jays' luck - Cecil's arm will blow up on day one and be out for the year - then what?

Awesome post - I see nothing twisted in your logic on these boards. I listened to the "expert" babbling on Fan590 about Dickey not being a clubhouse guy and being an island unto himself blah blah - so what? So was Roy Halladay. I would say AA's plan of getting other teams clubhouse rejects didn't exactly work very well - yes you can get superior talent for a bit less cash but you still have to weigh how much of a drag they are in the room with what they put on the field. I think most athletes are competitive and want to win. With Lawrie's faults a desire to win wasn't one of things lacking in his make-up. Even Bautista's tirades at umpires, while annoying, is clearly drawn from a desire to win the game. Dave Steib was always flipping out at umps, the other team, his own teammates. I'll take that over the Alex Rios/Colby Rasmus types. Chemistry in hockey is about knowing what you're teammate is going to do before they do - knowing how the goalie is going to play the puck on a dump in - knowing where your winger will be in XYZ situation. Baseball is far more individual. Is the payer purely about stacking their numbers OR will they deliberately hit the ball the other way to the second baseman to drive a run in. Will they realize the situation and stay at second to be driven home or will they selfishly try to steal 3rd with two outs because they have 19 on the year and some agent told them 20 is the magic number for a better contract in the off season. The Jays have not upgraded on paper as a team overall (better D at the expense of offense perhaps) - so if that doesn't change - we'll see perhaps how much chemistry has an influence. We landed Donaldson and Martin who are deemed leaders of their clubhouses along with Saunders (who only had trouble with their GM and it sounds like a small thing). The Jays got rid of Rasmus (benched and La Russa utterly despised - didn't see anyone crying over Rasmus going or Yunel Escobar). Lind was deemed as soft. Still more talent has left than what has been added. We lose a big hitting lefty DH, a 4 WAR CF when healthy, a number 2 hitter (the best ovrall perhaps last year in Melky) a young possibly top 5 3B when healthy in Lawrie with big defensive skills, a solid closer in CJ, a solid reliever in DM and two MLB ready relievers swing men in Graveman/Nolin and a solid 5th starter in Happ. Overall - pretty big downgrade in on field talent. So we'll see about chemistry overcoming LOFT. We had the 25th worst bullpen ERA last year - nothing has been added to fix that - the pen is vastly WORSE than it was in September and it's asking a lot to believe that Sanchez (or Estrada) will be an upgrade to Happ.

As an aside to draft pick compensation - is there any particular reason for not changing to draft pick trading? Would this not make for more excitement for fans at the trade deadline. Jeff Blair noted on the fan 590 that the Jays' brass should not have publicly stated that they have a 5 year policy on signing players - have the policy - fine but stating it publicly ruins the fan base's "hope" that you will land the big fish. I mean plenty of teams don;t sign guys to 7 year deals - so all of those teams without a guy on the book for more than 5 years may have a similar internal policy. Draft pick trading in Hockey is quite entertaining as you watch teams trade a player plus their own pick to another team to get a higher spot on the list. They could do away with sandwich picks and for that matter compensation picks. The players union would be on board with that and the teams should be on board with it because it is more in line with capitalism of deciding your own fate rather than the socialism model of being compensated by the league because you're too cheap to pay your free agent.

Still a lot of offseason left but Blue Jays Banter wonders if we are a better team now than in September. http://www.bluejaysplus.com/blue-jays-offense-better/#sthash.4aWYJsn4.dpbs

So 16 pages later - have we actually signed this guy or what? Looks like a lot of talk for a guy who will wind up with another team.