Key22

JimCanuck - perhaps a better way to view the pen instead of each individual reliever, as you correctly note - small sample size - is to look at the total number of innings the pen pitches and build a "pen." A team's pen in total inning might be worth two full starting pitchers as they throw around 400 innings per year. So rather than looking at one guy maybe it is wiser to have the money spread around across the pen. I'd far rather have 7 solid guys than rely on one shut down guy. I have not checked but does Robertson earn more in a year by himself than our best 7 relievers combined? But with around 400+ innings of relief looking at the team then as 5 starters and a relief core that is 2/7th of the combined innings I think you want to build as good a pen as you can. When KC touts a 77-1 record when leading after 6 - that is "ridiculous" on the one hand but surely the stats guys have some information on this. If two teams were leading in the 6th 78 times and one team loses 1 game and the other team loses 15 games - then the pen is worth a differential of plus 14. There is probably a stats that takes the average across the league of wins/losses when leading after 6 - the more you win against the average is wins above average pen (WAAP).

Looks like the 4 best relievers are off the free agent market with Miller a Yank, Robertson to the White Sox, Gregerson in Houston and Neshek about to sign in Houseton. Jays apparently interested in Kyle (am I still in the big leagues) Farnsworth - LOL.

We have upgraded but we've also detracted so we're not winning the off season. Sign Neshek and Gregerson and find an everyday 2B who can both field and hit and booyah we win the off season.

Scherzer to Boston?

Cecil WHIP 1.369 & 1.4 WAR (A hit is a hit and a walk is a walk). Santiago Castillo 0.857 WHIP and 2.0 WAR (Santiago was much better on the road) Jean Machi 0.950 WHIP 1.5WAR (Machi pitched the same on the road or at home) So pitchers park or not didn't matter to either one. I'll give you ROMO - he stunk on the road - and had a 0.3WAR - But he was good in the second half toward the end like Cecil facing AAAA scrubs. Cecil's 4.6BB/9 is pretty terrible and he is saved by the fact that he strikes people out. Castillo and Machi don't put up sick strikeout numbers but nor do they walk people. Like I said - I have no issue if the Jays want to make Cecil the closer - I said that in August. I wanted them to give him the job to try out to see if he could do it. But he's not a sure thing given his first half stunk. I hope his second half is the real deal. I remember when Morrow had that Elite second half. He was going to be the next Verlander/Scherzer.

Sanchez is the number 5 starter apparently. Depth is guys after the number 5 guy. Many on this board think Sanchez will walk everyone and will be terrible. I'm never thrilled when rookies are in the rotation nor am I thrilled by a rotation that lacks an ace and a number two. But I do like Sanchez and Norris in terms of upside - I just figured that if the Jays are supposedly all in - don't go halfway and stop. I would rather make the playoffs and then have a team capable of winning when we get there - but I suppose making it is the first step.

BTS show me some numbers. Thee S/F relievers with whips unger 1. Cecil a Whip of nearly 1.4 (which is pretty terrible). He was good late I'll give him that and I am quite happy with Cecil as a lefty set-up guy and I like Loup. Both very very solid relievers - but there is a reason the Yankees have Miller and Betances and are apparently going to a 4th year on Robertson - and they can afford all the advanced metrics guys too. Maybe they have more advanced advanced metrics than fanboys on forums. When the Yankees finish ahead of us next year with a pathetic offense but those three guys coming in then tell me the pen isn't important. KC had a 77-1 record in 2014 when leading after six innings. I'll grant you that the Yankees have way more money to piss down the drain than we do - but it's not rocket science to figure that not giving up runs for 3 innings every night is more desirable than getting shelled. People want Gregerson - 11 save opportunities - 8 blown saves. Yup he's a find. A real winner that one - when the game is on the line he loses 8 times in 11 tries. Yup - give him 6 million.

I realize there are many different avenues to win but you need to look at the whole thing - great pitching shuts down great hitting in the playoffs. Hitting over the course of the year is great at pounding other team's Dana Eveland's but even when the Jays were "great" other teams shut them completely down when there was an ace on the other team's hill pitching well. So if you want to try and win with a horrible bullpen that's fine - show me some examples that in the majority of cases teams make the playoffs and proceed to win them with horrible pens. San Fran was the lone cited example and it turns out the three back end guys were elite all season and in the playoffs. All three were much better than anyone we had. If you want to argue that there are other ways to win - such as the rotation - fine - but our rotation is pretty mediocre. No ace - no number 2 and not much depth. Estrada, Redmond - yikes.

BTS - what I am looking for is not a one year thing. 20 years and looking say at both teams that made the finals. That's 40 clubs and a percentage. Yes there will be an outlier but statistics is about playing the odds not the odd fluke. If the Phillies had had Ward instead of Mitch the Wild Thing Williams chances are there would have been a game 7 and Carter may not have even come to the plate in the 9th. And of the teams that did win without a good pen was it because they had ridiculous starting pitching like one guy who wins three games. See if we had Schilling and Johnson in their prime and I knew they were big time big game shut down pitchers (like Bumgarner was this year) then the pen might not matter - but does anyone here really see Dickey or Beurhle going 9 innings against the best teams in must win games. Hutchison and a sophomore in Stroman and a rookie in Sanchez? The pen is magnified when your rotation lacks complete game stoppers. San Fran had Romo and Castillo and Machi - ALL THREE had a season WHIP under 1 which is shut down stopper material. Castillo had a .177 average against - that's pretty elite from the bullpen. 23 saves and a 1.70 ERA. 4 saves in the postseason with a 0.68 WHIP and .083 avg against. If that's a bad 1,2,3 at the end of their pen then our pen is little league quality.

Are there any articles about Bullpens not being important? Ease my mind on this. Maybe say - over the last 20 years which WS teams didn't have a shut down closer and set-up guy. Since we have neither - I'd kind of like to know which teams won a WS with a pen of scrap heap finds.

I guess I needed a sarcasm sign.

Cole Hamels, Chase Utley (2B) and Papelbon. Adds 10 WAR to the team and $50m to the payroll. Trade Reyes and some prospects back - Reyes is to offset a contact). Sign Lowrie for SS. Sign Grilli, Neshak Romo. SS and 2B solved. Ace - solved, closer solved. Waiting for one of those "Johnson, Reyes, MB" mega trades.

I just read an article about the teams who made the playoffs. In 2013 the 6 best team ERA were the teams that made the playoffs - in the other league it was 5 and the other team was 7th. Team ERA consistently shows who makes the playoffs and who does not assuming the runs scored is not completely rubbish. The Jays probably have more than enough offense to win a world series. Is the team ERA going to be top 6? IMO and considering at least recent history of ERA to playoff contention it better be. Shi noted "Six of the top 10 big-league teams in bullpen ERA reached the post-season, and the three playoff clubs with the worst relief corps (St. Louis 18th, Dodgers 22nd, Detroit 27th) were eliminated in no small part because of that." Virtually all statistics need a large sample size. Baseball is wonderful for this predicting wins based on player stats but it is quite useless in a short series of small sample sizes. This is where macro level stats (season long) get traded for micro (single game/series) inning to inning performance. We have all seen line-ups with a bunch of hitters who are all 3+ war performers and big time mashers go up against a Cliff Lee or a Roy Halladay and get 1 hit or no hit. We have seen teams with second rate relievers get pounded for 6 runs late in must win playoff games. There are also a host of non statistical reasons why a shut down closer can help a team. A it takes the pressure of the starter and the offense. You score 2 runs in the 8th for a 6-4 lead and you know you have Mariano Rivera coming in. Now you can head to the plate less tense - maybe you score another 3. If you have some mediocre bum warming up you grip that bat a little tighter and you try to pop the 3 run bomb(which wind up as a pop up) instead of hitting the ball the other way to score 1 and keep the line moving because hey you got Rivera and the game is over. How do you track the "value" this has to a ball club? From the pitching side, when I pitched and knew my closer was available that day - it allowed me to pitch to contact - ahh get int trouble with 5-1 lead I had a guy who came in and mowed people down. If he's not there and the other guys were gas cans I knew that 4 runs could disappear real fast - forces you to pitch to the corners - walk more and could screw up your game - eat more pitches etc. Jays fans always talk about how unimportant relievers are - but the only time we've ever won jack s*** was when our bullpen was the envy of all baseball. Well/Ward/Henke/Timlin and yes Jimmey Key. I know a win is a win and a loss is a loss - but as a player it always sucked worse to lose late leads - when you're always playing tense late because you know that even a 3 run lead isn't safe. It's wearing on players over the long haul.

Of course you are correct - as it sits now it is Melky and Happ >>>> Saunders + nothing. In order for this to be a net win to the team we need to see what replaces the "nothing." In (Donaldson, Saunders, Martin, Travis, Estrada, Smoak). Out (Lawrie, Melky, Lind, Rasmus, Janssen, Happ, Gose, Santos, Morrow, Graveman, Nolin, McGowan, Bareto). I guess I am still not seeing a hugely upgraded team. We gain the big bat with Donaldson but lose a bat in CF and lose with Lind and lose with Melky. Gibbons says Saunders is a bottom third hitter so we lose a number 2 hitter for a number 7 hitter. I am waiting on the pitching because without upgrades to the rotation and the pen everything else is naval gazing. Not convinced we have a true number 2 starter let alone a number one, and the only pen arms I have confidence in are Cecil and Loup. The rest are swing man guys. I don't see the Jays landing Lester, Scherzer, Shields, Miller, or Robertson and thus I will be curious to see how AA will land us a starting pitcher better than anyone we currently have (and we need) and 3-4 bullpen arms the equal of our two lefties (and an actual shut down closer). This is the AL East - second rate filler isn't good enough - relying on a rooking like Sanchez to step in and be a closer or an ace is asking a bit much. The AL East - kind of like the Untouchables - They bring a knife we bring a gun - they bring a gun we bring a tank. That's the way this goes and you know the Yankees are going to get one of Miller/Robertson AND one of Lester/Scherzer if not all 4. (apparently word is they can spend $500 million on payroll and still make money - even with the luxury tax) - Pitching wins. Matching them with K-Rod or some number 4 starter is laughable. Jays gotta move the needle to $170-$180 million if they really want to do it this year. They gotta be the ones who sign one of Lester/Scherzer and one of Miller/Robertson - and even then they'd still need 2 other relief arms. Lay the gauntlet down and dig in.

This is a good trade in and of itself but some things to consider thus far. JA Happ was a serviceable 160 inning 5th starter. Melky was a very solid 2 hole hitter with a bit below average defense. Saunders has the best upside and is cheaper but Saunders did cost us Happ and it means we won;t sign Melky - so essentially we lose Melky AND Happ for Saunders. So yes Saunders replaces Melky but Happ is now a pretty big hit to the rotation and/or depth and also loses a trade chip. Being realistic - the elite free agents won't sign here without an overpay. My earlier note of Robertson/Miller was mainly due to the fact that while closers are overrated in terms of war - they're not in games where you need to win "that game." Ie do you want to make it to the playoffs or do you actually want a good chance to win once you are there. There's a pretty big difference between Robertson and Miller striking out guys at over 13K per 9 and Casey Janssen at 5.5 K/9. You tend to be playing the best teams with the better hitters in low scoring games and with bases loaded 1 out do you want Miller and his 15k/9 coming in or the much more hittable Janssen/most middle relievers. Ideally we would sign a quality starter and one of Miller or Robertson - I am not so sure a 4 year deal is so bad for a closer. After 2 years they'll be easy enough to trade assuming they don't get hurt but you could sign Lester and 3 pitches into opening day his arm could explode. So those are the risks. Team needs a closer and at least 2 other shut down relievers at least as good as Loup. More-so if we have a rotation banking on Stroman to be the Ace and Sanchez to be some kind of savior.

With Pitching which would you guys do for about the same money 5 years of Lester for $26 million per OR 7 years Scherzer at $28 million per. Instant shut down Ace of the staff. OR Both Andrew Miller and David Robertson for a combined 5 years $26 million. Set-up and Closer tandem would be the best in baseball with Cecil and Loup as a pretty lethal 7th inning tandem.

Unloading Navarro + could land us a rather useful LF or 2B or set-up guy - who needs a switch hitting catcher? Then see what 2B/LF/BP depth those tams have.

He's worth a shot on a rebound but the contract should be incentive laden. It's not a bad idea to sign these guys as back-up options. Boston picked up Francisco from waivers as a fall back if they did not land the Panda - once they got the Panda they dropped Francisco. I don't see why the Jays should not do the same. Justin Smoak is kind of our fall-back if they can't land a DH or 1B bat. And guys we're not even at the Winter meetings - would not be surprised to see AA pull off one of those 10 player trades again. Maybe target a LF/CF, 2B, SP, in one big move. It is AA after all. He likes to purge the farm every now and again.

Assuming that Graveman and Nolin can both be #4 or #5 starters of solid quality and Lawrie turs into a top five 3B on Defense and is a 20 homer .750ish OPS hitter it's hard to say they got fleeced. The A's fill 3 spots on the roster for dirt cheap. Bareto is a hefty prospect bat. Donaldson is the best player in the deal and the Jays win it simply because Graveman and Nolin are kind of easy guys to replace and Bareto as good as he is - well Travis Snider was ranked as the number 7 best prospect in baseball that mashed. You never know. Beane fills the roster and in that park may flip the pitchers later for something else. AA gets a star player and a middle of the order bat for 4 years. Graveman and Nolin are well down the depth chart for pitching in Toronto and Bareto is maybe an A-chip prospect but the Jays will add A-Chip prospects again and again. So it's Brett Lawrie (and three replaceable parts) for Donaldson. There's no way you can't do this trade if you're AA. But the Jays still seem to me to have the same holes they had in September: 2B LF CF Closer Bullpen Ace Lot's of time left and lots of trade chips left. Indeed, Jay Bruce or Brandon Moss as left handed bats look more attractive on the trade front now than it did before because of the big right handed bats we have. if Jay Bruce 2014 was an aberration based on his injury he could be a buy low opportunity. Moss is a little below average defensively but has big left handed pop if the Jays don't want to spend the money on Melky.

Okay now AA must counter - Scherzer 7 years 180million and John Lester 7 years $162 million. C'mon Rogers - go crazy just for fun. It's only money - put the Rogers bills up 10%.

So the question is "would we rather have Ramirez or Reyes at this point going forward?" 3 years at $70million (including $4million buyout) or 5 years at $90million of Ramirez? The career .873 OPS of Ramirez looks pretty good to me - and you can always dump him in left or make him a DH. Reyes is hopeless defensively - although he might actually be decent in left given he has a strong arm. Indeed, the Jays should look for a premier defensive gamer shortstop and move Reyes to left sooner than later - Reyes can be our Ricky Henderson.

And before the minors - Albert Pujols drafted in the 13th round - every team passed on him 12 times including St. Louis. I go by what I actually saw - Sanchez looked to have the best stuff (along with Stroman) that this club has seen in while. I remember lots of people wanting to dump Stroman too for all sorts of reasons from delivery to height to lack of pitches. Another poster talked about asset management - totally agree - if you can buy a $12 million free agent that costs no draft pick or prospects why on earth would you TRADE arguably your best pitching prospect for a guy who puts up the SAME numbers and also costs $12 million but who came off a dreadful year? The other team wanting to get rid of him and who see the player every single day are hardly banking on the upside now are they? If other teams see Sanchez the way some fans (arm-chair GMs) see him then they won;t be giving us anything of worth in return - if he is a disaster with control with a bad delivery who will always get hurt then what exactly are we going to get for him? Nada. So we may as well keep him and hope he's a stud or hope his value rises to get something valuable in return.

NJH Every player to me is tradeable so I am not dead set on keeping the guy - still the times I saw him actually pitch spring training and with the Jays it was a pretty dramatic improvement in delivery, command and consistency. One thing about the reliever role that is a plus is seeing the guy over several outings over several days. Sanchez looked pretty filthy virtually every time out there. I didn't see an alarming number of walks or for that matter an alarming number of times he even missed the glove. Drabek was all over the map. I just don't see why people are so ready to dump 98mh flamethrowers with decent off speed offerings at the age of 22. Sure if you are using him in a package to land the next 5-6 years of control Mike Trout in CF fine - great - bye bye Sanchez, BUT not for $12.5 million mediocre defensive .750OPS bats in a non premium position like the corner outfield spots - not when free agents with similar numbers and money cost you nothing. It's been a fairly standard trait over the decades that power arms struggle with command and control and many improve - not all of them that is true but I want to see him pitch with an MLB defense behind him and Russel Martin catching him before I trade that kind of arm. He exhibited no control or command problems on the MLB club and being 22 perhaps he learned some things - made some adjustments. Maybe he winds up being an 2-3 BB per nine and 7-9K guy. Even if he's a 4-5 BB guy if he doesn;t give up hits he can still be a solid AJ Happ kind of #4. I gotta think he has more upside that Happ.

I think the big thing to consider with all the free agents is who is willing to actually come here. We landed the Canadian free agent but it STILL took the extra year that no one else would give him. So we can barely attract Canadians let alone Americans. Every time any of us reads about a trade target with a limited no trade clause - Toronto seems to be on every single one of them - so that would be true if they were free agents - anybody except Toronto and a few other places. I agree with you - try to land the free agents who don't cost prospects or draft picks. But we always have to overpay in years and dollars. Fine for the first three years but at the end it's going to look a bit ugly - though Martin is okay because other teams would offer him 4 years. Getting rid of Rasmus, Gose, and Lind - (deer in headlights sort of players) is virtually addition by subtraction. I think Hunter is the answer in left if he's willing to come to Toronto. Aoki is 33 in January and he was a negative defensive value in left and has no power. Andy Dirks is better defensively and is 4 years younger with more bat potential.

Religious stupidity gets free reign to say and do whatever it wants but you know logic, reasons, and umm facts, have to be quashed because they are "militant." I had to laugh when Richard Dawkins was called an Atheist Militant. Yes he says "I don't believe and neither should you and here's why." And that is militant? Evolution is a fact. The term theory in science should not be viewed as lay persons use the term. Lay people. I have a theory that if I buy Jennifer Lawrence Purdy's chocolates that she will marry me. Yup that's my "theory." Evolution in science is as strong as the theory (law) of Gravity. If Curt is looking for the missing link he can look at newspapers to see the monkey who was in charge of the United States before Obama - after all apes know about 2000 words in English which is about right. And Curt - you know that thing in your lower back called a TAIL BONE - that's where a tail used to go. :-)