Key22

If the Yankees don't think Santana or Jiminez are any goo d why would the Jays? The Yankees can generally scout. In AA's interview on the fan 590 pay close attention to some of the things he said regarding to talking to "all the free agent pitcher's agents". He talked about make-up being a factor in their budgeting. The FA pitchers have make-up issues. He also claims there are available pitchers via trade - who will be around in spring training or later and will likely still be available. Of course these could be AAAA scrubs.

On the other hand it would be cool to have the Yankees give him $23million a year for 7 years and have a guy who ends up getting lit up night after night after night. The Yankees are in the lead on Tanaka now probably - at least in terms of money. They apparently have $39 million in cap space (and it's not really a cap anyway).

Dodgers and Kershaw Rosenthal reports that the two sides were close on a seven-year, $210MM extension last season before the Dodgers backed off and adds that early in the negotiation process, a 10-year, $250MM contract and a 12-year, $300MM pact were discussed. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/ My 7 year offer idea to the similarly aged Tanaka with a 7 year vesting option is looking eerily less crazy than it appeared - the going rates seem to be going up if LAD is/was are entertaining 12 year guaranteed contracts for a pitcher. Kershaw and Tanaka in the same rotation. Ryu, Grienke, Haren rounding out the rotation with Beckett/Billingsly as insurance 6th starters. This would be a pretty sick rotation.

Vancouver is consistently ranked as one of the three best places int he world to live. Weather is one thing - but there are numerous other factors that go into the decision process. Seattle to me is the closest U.S. city like it and Portland is wonderful and not terribly far away. Less pollution - 6 homicides in Vancouver in all of 2013. One of the better education systems private or public in the world. The weather isn't cold for long - mild snow for 3 weeks big deal. It's never humid. You can jog in Stanly park and head up the mountain to go skiing later in the day. Huge multi-cultural city ideal for Asians. There's only one tiny little problem - there's no team! So if the Blue Jays want to court such a player I maintain they have to try and sell him on the whole country and push BC - it's only 4 hours away get him a fishing lodge in Nimmo Bay (the stars go there) and it costs something like $5000 a night http://www.nimmobay.com/ plus another $4000 a day for helicopter and fishing lessons etc. The whole of Canada trumps pretty much any place on earth and the Jays PR guys can do a lot to sell the country to a foreign born player. I think Seattle has a real shot if they can land Tanaka - Their rotation would be pretty stacked and if they can add some meat around Cano somehow they could contend in a year or two. That park would be nice for his numbers as well. Plus he'd be close to BC. It's weird cause some of the scouting reports seem to suggest he'd be better than Darvish others say equal others a tier down. 94-98mph and best splittler and wipe-out slider sounds filthy to me. Just hope he doesn't land in our division if it's not with us.

I like the bottom 6 lottery idea of who gets the first overall pick. I don't follow basketball or football. I think the draft is entertaining and I think it has begun to get a lot of attention over the last decade so I think it has to stay. Not a fan of the convoluted draft pool money. Pay these clowns coming up hard numbers - first round get picks get $1 mill, round 2 $900K round 3 $800K. Everyone past round 10 gets $50k. Done simple. (the numbers are an example - make them higher but it forces teams to actually select talent at each round. None of this "he'll be a tough signs nonsense" and we'll have to take scrubs in rounds 2-10 to use that bonus pool money for the top guy. Right now it's a farce. The above would then lend quite well to draft pick trading because the last place teams can trade for 1st and 2nd round pics without worrying that they won't have the cash to sign them and be forced to take "easy signs" which means "lesser talents" because they can't afford the best talent. A draft is SUPPOSED to help weaker teams inject talent into their organization not let the best players fall to NYY or Boston with their 28th pick or 30th pick. The Union won't like the above but for that concession you give them a bigger money maker for the players and agents by doing the following: Expand the The Luxury tax threshold to $210 million while making the minimum payroll $70million. This would more than offset the draft signings - agents happy. Players union should be happy. Increase salaries to all minor league players and have a better minor league pension plan (or one at all if there is none) based on Minor league playing time not just major league playing time. If you go over the $210 million threshold then for every dollar you pay another $5. So if the Yankees go over by $1million - they pay $5million to the league. If they go over by by $10 million they pay $50million to league. They can do this for 2 years only - a third year and the penalty triples to $15million to for each $1million they go over. The penalty tax will be distributed to all other major league baseball teams and will be divided amongst the in game workers (peanut vendors, Ice-Cream vendors, beer pourers, security guards - NOT the owners) - or it can boost the Minor league pension fund. Teams that fall under $70 million Err I got no ideas here. They're probably bad teams and if you take draft picks they save money. I suppose you could say 2 infraction you have to sell the club.

Born in Toronto lived there - lived in BC. If it wasn't about money and I had my choice I would EASILY choose BC in a second. Tanaka is going to be a hugely wealthy man no matter where he goes but his wife is correct - given the choice Seattle, LAD, LAA, San Francisco, San Diego in a second over a places like NYY or disaster areas like Pittsburgh, Detroit or Cleveland. Toronto and maybe Boston I'd consider on the east coast and Miami if the owner wasn't a clueless git. Still the Tanakas will be able to afford homes in every major city they play in if they so wish. The Mrs. can live in Seattle while Tanaka can play in NY. When the Yankees give him the 8 year $192million I think the "I want to live on the west coast" argument will wash away and be recognized as a ply to get more money. Or they're genuine in which case the west coast is far more desirable IMO.

We have only one chance - that Tanaka has a grandparent who was in Nagasaki or Hiroshima during WWII and didn't have family in Canada who were put into internment camps AND AA is willing to go 7 years at $18million per season and we throw in a Hello Kitty Car for his girlfriend/wife/him if he's the sort.

The vesting option can deal with your concern - "must not finish the final year o the disable list" - further the Jays take out an insurance policy on injury so if he blows his arm up insurance pays not the Jays. And yes he'll be in decline but plenty of pitchers have been pitching effectively at 38-40. I'd rather not offer such a contract to the guy but people here seem to want miracles. They don;t want to trade Sanchez or Stroman - which means we can't land a starting pitcher with enough talent to help us. People complain about the free agent market - but want a fragile arm waiting to explode guy in Garza. There's not much of a choice. Tanaka is the choice it seems as a guy who could be Darvish like a number 2 not an ace and apparently at least $100,000,000 has been offered by the Cubs. It's going to take AA "blowing him away" I think in dollars and years that Jays fans aren't going to like either. It's a seller's market and the Jays are going to have to obscenely overpay be it money or talent. I'd rather the money since we have plenty of room under the luxury tax and Rogers could spend if they wanted to.

Okay so let's say team ABC signs a pitcher for 7/$119 and at the end of that contract the pitcher has won 2 Cy Young awards and/or finished in the top 5 in CY Young Voting in five of 7 years and in the top 10 in the other two. The pitcher has pitched at least 170 innings in each season. That would be a high value contract and a great bargain relative to the market. Fast forward to 2021 - you have this same player now on the FA market at the age of 32 where salaries will be much much higher than they are now. Such a terrific constantly top 5 pitcher would likely net a 7/210 million contract - Look at Sabathia/Lee/King Felix/Halladay as examples of guys all/were making at least $20million per season. Beurhle is close for heaven sake. Jays fans would be ranting - sign him - open the wallet blah blah blah. For the proposed option to kick in the guy has to pitch to pretty elite levels and if he pitches to pretty elite levels then the vesting option would be a bargain because we'd be paying $17million per for a guy who on the open market could be fetching $25m plus. In fact the motivation to sign such a deal would NOT be high for the player. If he doesn't pitch well the vesting option doesn't kick in - and if he is elite then he's going to be vastly underpaid in 2021. Doesn;t matter now - The Yankees have $20million plus off the books and a $151 million payroll - they can easily spend $20 million+ per on this guy and give him 10 years if they want to.

This was a facetious example - however it is a smart play to force the competition to pay more than they want to. If you know the Yankees are going to sign the guy as the Jays organization you would much rather them sign him for an 8 year at $22 million per than 5 years at $15 million per. Since Tanaka isn't going to come here as we're not a "preferred city" I see no reason why it can't get out (a leak) to the other teams and the media that the Jays are "preparing an offer" of $20million per for 8 years - force the Dodgers, NYY etc to pay through the nose to reduce their ability to stay under the luxury tax threshold. It doesn't need to be a formal offer - just needs to get out what the Jays are "looking to do" and then drive the guy's price up. At this point when you have a top free agent who is NOT coming here - you want to do the next best thing you can keep him away from division rivals OR make them pay large to get him.

Chappy Is a $119/7 year contract franchise suicide?

The ridiculous contract offer is to get other teams to pay more. After all LA said they won't be outbid - so offering Tanaka a massive contract is a way to get our competition to blow more money making it harder for them to fill other needs down the road. What's the problem? As for my rolling Vesting idea - the player has to meet pitching success criteria. So if you give the guy a 7 year /$119 million contract that is $17 million a season. Do any of you think he will get less than this? Would you sign Tanaka for 7/$119 given that he's 25. I think most teams would strongly consider this and deem it a figure that it will likely take to get him. But the Jays are last place and less attractive place to play etc etc etc so the Jays have to do more. I'm not exactly sure why the vesting option scares you off. For a vesting option to kick in the player has to perform. It's a second contract based on the performance of the first contract. If Tanaka doesn't perform then the second contract does not vest. There is far less risk to the Jays. If the player meets the vesting criteria of innings pitched and CY young award finishing in the top 5 or whatever then you will have a player who is 32 year old who finished in the CY young voting top 5 in most of the years and pitched an average of say at least 170ip and in 2021 you would essentially be signing an elite 32 year old CY Young Caliber pitcher a 7/$119 million contract which in 2021 will likely be equal to a 7 year $84 million in today's money. That would be a bargain. Sure at the end of the contract he's be 39 - look at how Kuroda is doing and tell me he's not worth $17million relative to the market. If Tanaka stinks - then we're done with him after 7 - the contract doesn't vest and we're safe. Take out insurance on his arm for injury so it doesn't hit payroll. The only way the Jays land him is by being creative - something AA used to do.

Yeah who wouldn't want to live in a city that has no electricity for two weeks and a crack head right wing whack job (I wanna be George W Bush) mayor? 4 months of -10 and 4 months of brutal humidity and a last place team. Or you can live in LA with the movie stars, beaches filled with 5'11 leggy big boobed blond models. Nothing against our Canadian girls but when they're wearing parkas half the year - well I'm not sure what Canada can offer him. I hope he goes to the Cubs or some NL team. Like I say - the only way we land him is with some serious PR convincing him how good Toronto is - but they should try and sell him on Canada over just Toronto - Vancouver, PEI - give him homes in different provinces - be a national here over just a city hero etc. And we probably have to offer him my earlier suggested 7 year contract with a 7 year vesting option (or three 5 year deals rolling over that vest to another 5 and vests again to another 5 basically giving him a 15 year deal if he hits IP minimums)- kinda similar to what we gave Dave Stieb but updated for modern times. I'd have no problem if he were a sure ace - if LA and Chicago with their scouts thinks he worth "not being outbid" then they think he's a true ACE. I'd offer the 15 year contract - if for no other reason that it will force the other clubs to spend a lot lot more money and years on him. AA should publicly offer a 15 year $375 million contract - forcing other clubs to pay more. Reducing luxury tax space of the Yankees or other teams has value. Baseball isn't a fair playing field like other sports - so play the REAL Game AA which is all about money. Bill Maher http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vb9JMno7g7Y

Yeah he should stick around on the ballot for a few years 473 homers is a lot. It's too bad really - if he could have 2-3 more excellent years he'd probably have made it. Defense and running isn't a factor for their consideration of first base types so that won't hurt him at all. For First baseman they're going to look at his offense. His .900OPS should merit consideration. He is 50th all time in RBI and 31st all time in Home Runs. On another site Delgado was broken down as follows and seems to be a pretty fair analysis of his chances - he's actually better than I thought he was. As I've said many times on this board, I do not agree at all with the "if X is in, then Y needs to be in" line of logic because if you took the worst player in the HOF and let in everyone better than him, there would be hundreds and hundreds of players in the Hall, if not thousands. So let's take a look and see where Delgado stands: First, let's take a quick look at Delgado's numbers. His batting line is currently .280/.383/.547/.930 with 472 HRs and an OPS+ of 138. He has never won the MVP award, though he's had some nice showings in the voting for that award, finishing second in 2003, fourth in 2000, sixth in 2005, ninth in 2008, and he appeared on the ballot in three other years. Now, let's compare him to the other players of his era: Of players with at least 5,000 PA between 1990 and 2009 he stands 20th in OPS+. The three guys immediately above him are Todd Helton, Larry Walker, and Ken Griffey Jr. while the three guys below him are Brian Giles, David Ortiz, and Rafael Palmeiro. Among 1B with 5,000 PA in that time span, he is 7th, behind Albert Pujols, Mark McGwire, Jeff Bagwell, Jim Thome, Jason Giambi, and Todd Helton. He's eigth in that time span if you include Frank Thomas as a 1B instead of a DH. There are currently eight first basemen who have been ELECTED to the Hall of Fame by the baseball writers, and that's what we're really talking about here. They are: Lou Gehrig (179 OPS+), Jimmie Foxx (163), Hank Greenberg (158), Willie McCovey (147), Bill Terry (136), Eddie Murray (129), George Sisler (124), and Tony Perez (122). If you go based on OPS+, that would place Delgado 5th out of 9 elected 1B, which is pretty comfortably in the middle. hat being said, there are many first basemen who are currently playing or who recently retired who are likely to make the HOF and who were better than Carlos Delgado, including Albert Pujols, Frank Thomas, Jeff Bagwell, Todd Helton, and perhaps Mark McGwire eventually. Assuming they all get in through the writers, that would put Delgado at 10th out of 14, meaning he'd be better than four out of the fourteen elected first basemen in that scenario. So, basically I think he's borderline. He certainly wouldn't be the worst first baseman (or even the worst writer-elected first basman) in the HoF, but he definitely wouldn't be among the best. He's helped by the fact that his peak was very strong (154 OPS+ with a line of .295/.413/.585/.998 in the six year period between 1998 and 2003), including a monster 2000, when he had a line of .344/.470/.664/1.134 with 41 HRs. He's hurt, in my view, by the fact that he's never really been that good of a defensive player. Also, when it comes to the reality of the situation (whether the writers are going to vote him in), the fact that he only was selected to two All-Star games will hurt him." http://forums.nyyfans.com/showthread.php/117452-Is-Carlos-Delgado-a-Hall-of-Famer Where I disagree with the author is in the fact that so what if there are 10 guys in the era that are ALL outstanding - I don;t believe in the notion that you have to be in the best 1-2 during the time that you played - if you're the 8th best and you're better than 40 guys in the last 50 years who got in then so be it. In other words I don't believe in grading on the old bell curve system. John goes to University and scores 95% - that's an A+ but on the bell curve John is stuck in a classroom with 10 Einsteins who get 100% - John fails the course because there needs to be an F and 95% was unfortunately the lowest mark in the class. Likewise - in a class full of Gumps the guy who scores 60% gets and A+ because everyone else did worse. No. And he did this without Peds in a Ped era. In other words - unlike many of the cheaters who had better numbers - Delgado didn't cheat. That has to count for something I should think - if A-Roid gets in - something is wrong IMO.

Well it's kind of about looking at other teams - If the Jays send say 5 scouts and the all come back and say 1-2 starter - and 15 other teams make a big bid then there is arguably a lot of consensus in and out of the organization about the player. Fastball is 92-98mph and apparently has the best splitter in the world and he has excellent control. a 4-1 K/BB ratio and he's 25 - 6'2 205. I think there is pretty large consensus around the game that he is likely better than Garza (injury prone), Santana (mediocre and wants $20million a year) and Jiminez (wants at least $14m a year). The latter two to come to Toronto it will take at least a 5 year $15m per year signing. If Tanaka is much better (which is what the "experts" are saying then $17 and 7 for a guy a lot younger makes more sense to me. I don;t really care if we don;t get him but if NYY, Bos, BAL, TB gets him - then teams that are already much better than us get a lot stronger while we sign a second string catcher as our front line catcher. And using Darvish as a reference isn't a terrible idea - Tanaka doesn't need to be THAT good to still be worth it. Darvish - 209 IP 277 strikeouts 1.07 WHIP. The guy is an ace. Let's not miss the boat again because it may not be a team in another division that gets him - it might be Boston or NYY. And let's say NYY gets Tanaka. And let's say Tanaka is indeed much better than the big 3 free agents. We are already behind NYY after their upgrades. So we counter and sign Garza. Great. We still improved a lot LESS than they improved. Therefore we're worse before pitch one of the season. In order to win you have to upgrade more than teams you're trying to catch. That simple. And everyone on here blathering about Stroman - the guy is 5'9 and the odds are extremely slim this guy is going to hold up for 200 innings a year as a mainstream top of the rotation starting pitcher - the guy he gets compared to is Tom Gordon - (hardly an ace). It's teams like us who play the ole "lightning in a bottle" or hope to beat the odds maybe he can be called up in August kind of guys.

The Hall of fame is a bit useless. Comparing players in different eras is problematic because you don't know how they would do in a different era. In today's era with all the video footage and high tech replay is it possible that perhaps a pitcher who was a hall of famer in the 1940s get lit up in year two if something was discovered from an opposing team in the guy's delivery - theoretically goes from Hall of Famer to the scrap pile in 3 years. So you probably should look at the individual's era and see what their numbers were like against the competition at the time. So if you took Jack's number over his time pitching against league average at his time and you say well - Jack would make his eras top 5 starting pitchers - then he should be given serious consideration (as well as the other 4). Sort of how they do the compensation - you say -- the top X percent of a given era (the player's time in the show) with certain minimum qualifiers like IP or something. I liked Jack but I honestly think the ONLY reason he gets this much consideration is for his game 7 win. Without that game - he'd probably be off the ballot.

So here is the Ninja plan. $119/7 year contract ($17million a season - we have to go $17/7 IMO just to talk to the guy). PLUS $1 million bonus for a top 5 Cy Young finish in each year and $500k for all-star selection and $500k for 180 innings. If this is met the contract would be $19million a season up to a possible $133/7. Then there is a 7 year vesting option that is basically a rollover of the first contract. If he throws 1190 innings (170 average per year) and finishes in the top 10 in Cy Young in 5 of the first 7 years then the second $119/7 year contract automatically kicks in with the same bonus. Further a $4 million vesting bonus will be awarded. Total contract if he meets all bonus markers would be $270 million over 14 years. Given his size shape and age - it would take him to 39 years old. The last three years might be ugly but there are plenty of geezers out there having no trouble (Colon, Kuroda, Dickey). It's a bit risky but there is the escape at 7 years and let's face it if the option vests he would be one terrific pitcher being a continual Cy young vote getter. A possible $270 million/14 years is the way it would read in the press. Tough to turn down.

What is the definition of cheap? The guys is kind of another Mark Beurhle which is not bad actually but if we sign him we're probably going to have the lowest pitching speed staff in baseball - 3 guys who rarely if ever hit 88mph! Then again the jump to Delabar/Santos/Jansen is much greater. If you just look at his numbers - I mean really who cares if the guy throws 12 miles an hour underhand if he can get people out? The guy is actually pretty good - very possible to get 170-190 innings of solid pitching from the guy and if he's undervalued then it's not a bad signing. A Tanaka/Maholm off-season would be a pretty nice haul. Dickey Tanaka Beurhle Morrow Maholm Happ/Hutchison/Rogers (as long men spot starters) Loup (LOOGY) Cecil (Lefty set-up man) Delabar/Santos (righty set-up) Jansen (Closer) Granted Happ arguably would fill this role but he hasn't cracked 160 innings since 2009 (and then only 166). Besides Morrow will probably break by June so we'll need the extra arms.

Sorry guys being in Hong Kong I am not able to post quickly to questions. The article (who knows where it is) - looked at pitchers in general segments - the top 20 a cross section in the middle of the league and bottom of the barrel - in general the pitchers considered to be elite had the lowest WHIP - the middle all had much higher WHIPS but much better than the dregs at the bottom of the league. While defense contributes to hits allowed - it contributes to ALL pitchers on a pitching staff - a line drive 8 feet over the shortstops head into the gap is going to be a hit no matter who the defense is. Looking at WHIP over several years - you can say look at just the WHIP of a Roy Halladay VS Gustavo Chacin and while with the same defense you know which one is the better pitcher. I've liked the WHIP stat since I saw it. And while it somewhat indicates ERA - ERA isn't a completely useless stat. Over time and for starting pitchers that stat still tells you a general class the pitcher is in. The teams with the top 5 ERA all made the NL post season and 5/7 in the AL made it. What I want in a pitcher is a guy who doesn't walk people and doesn't give up hits and preferably doesn't give up a bunch of runs. WHIP and ERA cover this. And sure pitcher X with a horrible team may have a few more hits against because his shortstop is Izturas while pitcher Y has Ozzie Smith but that's part of the fun - when Roy Halladay is posting 1.05 WHIPs and putting up low ERAs and winning 18-20 games while losing 10 on a team that STUNK like the Jays for a decade - it's a bit more impressive than some guy in a pitchers park with defensive wizards and juggernaut offenses.

It is proven to be a reliable number walks plus hits per innings pitched. ERA is somewhat related to team defense, parks - so are hits allowed to an extent. Good WHIP tends to equal good WAR and there was an article illustrating just that. So while I could have found their WAR it was easier to get the WHIP stat so I used that. Pitchers who walk few and give up few hits per innings are generally good pitchers. Pitchers who walk a lot of people and give up a lot of hits tend to stink. What is interesting is that our rotation is somewhat comparable to NYY - also a reason they didn't make the playoffs either. I've noted before that team ERA is critical - in the NL the top 5 teams in ERA were the teams that made the playoffs - in the AL the 5 teams that made the playoffs were all in the top 7. KC scored so few runs was why they didn't make it. When I put up the comparison it is actually nice to see that our top two are quite comparable with the top two of the other teams - it's at least respectable 1-2. Where we get beaten is 3-5 and it is pretty clear that the superior WHIPs of the 3-5 pitchers in Boston helped lead them to a top 7 team ERA while we were 12th. Lowering hits and lowering walks = lowering runs against. Granted WHIP doesn't fully appreciate the type of hits - Dickey and Beurhle seem to give up a lot of home runs.

Even if we do I question whether it will be enough. Our pen is probably on par with Bos/NYY - if Santos and Jansen ar eboth healthy and perform and Delabar/Cecil do pretty much what they did last year we have a pretty great pen. I think it's really simple with the success teams have in relation to team era which is largely the result of the rotations. If you get list the Bos/NYY/TB rotations and stack them up against our 5 what do you have. For instance if Kuroda is New York's number 3 starter but he would be deemed our ace then they're going to beat us. If Lackey is Bos' number 3 and he's be our number 2 we're in trouble. Dickey is our Ace. Where does Dickey slot into the Bos/TB and NYY rotations - would he be their number 3? If so we're done because AA would then have to go out and get someone who betters Dickey and arguably can stand up against Price/Sebathia. Out of the top four rotation spots if we don't have the ace to match their ace's then we would probably have to better them in the number 2,3,4 slots in the rotation as number 5s typically get less starts. This is because Bos/NYY will probably outscore us. NYY (general projectable numbers based on last 3-5 years) C. Sabathia (210IP 1.25) H. Kuroda (200 IP 1.15 WHIP) I. Nova (~150IP 1.4 WHIP) D. Phelps ( 90IP 1.4 WHIP) A. Warren (80 IP 1.4 WHIP) Not a great rotation as it sits - but Pineda may come back. BOS Starting Rotation J. Lester (210 IP 1.3 WHIP) J. Lackey (170 IP 1.3 WHIP) C. Buchholz (140IP 1.2 WHIP) J. Peavy (150IP 1.15 WHIP) R. Dempster (140 IP 1.4 WHIP) TOR Dickey (220 IP 1.25 WHIP) Beurlhe (200 IP 1.35 WHIP) Morrow (120 IP 1.35 WHIP) Happ (100 IP 1.45 WHIP) Rogers (130 IP 1.4 WHIP) It's not as bad as people think but it's also nowhere near as good as Boston.

Anyone else think the Jay's will essentially stand pat? The team has holes in the rotation, catcher, second base and possibly left field. It's not completely different than what happened before the 2013 season though. Last year we were not sure about Melky in left. Izturas and Boni were going to be a platoon at 2nd base. JPA was going to be poor. The rotation had an injury prone Johnson and Morrow and a "hopeful to rebound Romero". This year we have an injury prone Morrow and no expectation on Romero to ever come back. And a lot of mediocre fillers in place of the number 2 starter hopeful in Johnson. I still think the team needs to be a top 5 ERA to have a chance at the playoffs. Can Morrow Dickey Beurhle Happ Hutchison et al. Produce an ERA that exceeds Bos, TBAY, BAL, NYY - if the answer is no then we're not making the playoffs - NYY and BOS should outscore us. If they also have better pitching we're done. We're in win now mode - so rather than talking about number 3 starters and what makes a number 3 starter and innings pitched - and howmuch money so and so will cost and giving up draft picks - it's REALLY about having a rotation and pen that betters Bos, NYY, Bal, TB. You have to pitch better than them if you want to make the playoffs - we'll probably score enough runs if the team is healthy. Does a Dickey, Beurhle, Morrow, ?, ? rotation get it done in the AL EAST?

I think the Jays already have their 2,3,4,5 starters - what they need at this point is a number one or number 2. That doesn't exist on he free agent market. Jiminez is really the only FA that COULD be lightning in the ole bottle - he did win a Cy Young and he has big stuff - but he also can't find the plate. Kind of hard to give up a draft pick and also $15m per season for 4-5 years it will take to get him - remember we have to pay more money and more years to land free agents. What AA doesn't seem to get when he says things like - The Jays are willing to give a higher AAS is that he ALSO must give them more years. The only pitcher truly worth spending on is Tanaka - someone else will post the $20 and offer at least a 7 year 105m (125m with the posting fee). And many of those teams can offer him something else as well - being on a winner.

There are clearly no guarantees with pitching - two years in a row we lost 60% of our rotation. This is why we're last. Everyone blames Gibbons but when you lost Johnson and Morrow for the year, Romero implodes and Happ gets hit in the face, Dickey hurts his Neck in the first start of the year and can;t throw the knuckleball properly (and it's really his only pitch) And Buerhle kinda starts slow, JPA seems to turn into the worst catcher in history, Lawrie can't hit his way out of a paper bag, you lose you starting shortstop and lead-off hitter for 3 months and your leftfielder is playing like a 60 year old man and second base is a black hole of poop I found it kinda silly that "It's all Gibbons" Now I agree - it all looks better going into next season in terms of depth - Drabek, Hutchison, Happ, Rogers, Morrow should hopefully all be back and healthy. Add in McGowan as a possible starter and Santos to the pen and things look not bad. Add in Stroman who may be ready and it's pretty bright. I am looking at the team from a "in now" perspective which is where the Jay's brass seemed to me to decide to be in from last off season. So in that light If you are TRULY serious I don't think you can go into the season with minor league pitchers, injury prone pitchers beyond the 4-5 spots in the rotation. I think the Jays need two durable 200 inning kind of starters to go along with Dickey and Beurhle who are about as good as those two. Then you can slot in the 8 pitchers or so like Morrow/Happ for the 5th spot. To me this gives the team a huge breather - maybe you get lucky and Morrow stays healthy and pitches like the 1 hit guy we're all hoping is in there - cause it's in there. But unlike Verlander you can't "expect" it - what you have to expect is that he's going to blow his arm out in the first 10 starts. Drabek has had 2 TJS and it's highly unlikely that he will ever pitch in MLB again - maybe but I believe the history of 2 TJS pitchers isn't spectacular. The thing with all this is you're always paying for someone's past work. I mean Stroman could come up and be a shut down Ace, Hutchison could be a solid number 3 Marcum like starter - Dickey could win the Cy Young, Romero could come back and throw 190+ innings of sub 3.00ERA. But in win now mode I just think it's crazy to expect anything like that to happen. Three years in a row losing 3/5 of the rotation for most or all of the season I want to say just can't happen - but then it did 2 years in a row. Maybe we can rely on depth this time.

For the Jays to make the playoffs they need to have a top 5 pitching staff in team ERA and they need to finish ahead of at least 3 AL East teams. Assuming the bullpen is as good as it was last year and Dickey and Beuhrle are as good as they are last year - I am not sure how ONE starter is going to improve us from something like 12th to 4th. This team needs a rotation that is better than all or all but one of NY, BOS, TB, and BAL. A rotation of Tanaka, Dickey, Beuhrle, (Morrow for 10 starts until his arm blows up), Happ and Rogers. Where does that rank exactly? Even with Tanaka it's not enough. Out of Tanaka, Garza, Santana, Jiminez the Jays would need TWO of those to have a credible starting rotation and Morrow slotting in the fifth spot with Happ the long man to step in when Morrow is gone by the 110 innings pitched mark. Maybe Hutchison - but maybe not and he ain't coming back after TJS to give us 200 innings. Garza is nice an all but also injury prone and would be my dead last pick out of the four. And the only guy everyone is high on is Tanaka but reports are he doesn't miss bats and won't against MLB hitters. He'll likely be a number 3. $20million a year for a number 3 seems high to me and we already have such a pitcher in Beuhrle. Jiminez is an ex CY Young winner with big K numbers but also walks everyone and Santana - uggh I'd rather the guitar player to do the anthems each game. I'd stand pat - do nothing and wait till next year - by then Stroman will be entrenched in the rotation, Beurhle and Dickey will probably still be fine - their stuf doesn;t kill their arms. Maybe Hutchison has bounced back and that leaves one spot to get one pitcher.