Key22

I think the Jays would do better by keeping Sanchez and signing Torii Hunter (17 homers last year and a .765 OPS) 2.7 and 2.2 oWAR and a little bit negative in CF but in LF that could jump to be league average or better. He's 39 and still performs well and might even be worth a 2 year deal where most teams will only offer him one. 2/28 might out bid the field. Torii's body looks to hold out at 39 and 2 years over Melky at 4-5years at 32. I mean Torii was an all-star in 2013 at 37 years old. He also has the "playoff experience" that AA seems to be considering. A good stop gap measure.

I don't get it - 98mph with heavy movement and he threw secondary pitches on the corners and was getting soft groundballs in numbers. Many a hard thrower have serious control problems at the start of their careers - Randy Johnson walked 6 a game for the first 4 years of his career and led the league in walks three years in a row. He turned out pretty good and I think the GM who trades him for Jay Bruce would be lynched by his fans. Not saying Sanchez will be the next Johnson but 98mph with movement and secondary stuff 33 innings (27ks) and he gave up 14 hits 65.9% ground ball rate (albeit a very small sample size). Minor league numbers - well minor league umpires and poor "pitch framing catchers" don't help the walks - cause if those catchers were any good at pitch framing they'd make $82 million over 5 years!!! Not saying he's untradeable but 22 year olds throwing 97-99mph with movement and getting guys to pound the ball into the ground or strike-out who walked 5 per 9 (Johnson was in the 6-7 per game many years at the MLB level) can get away with it when no one can hit them. Sanchez is better than Johnson on the walk front early on so far. I remember everyone wanting to trade Halladay because in his first two years he walked 4.8 and 5.6 per 9. He was an overrated bum who was most definitely going to be a complete bust. Worse Halladay only struck out 4.9 and 5.9 per nine over those 2 years and gave up way more hits than innings pitched and had over 1.57 and 2.2 WHIP. Halladay STUNK in the majors at 22/23. Sanchez at 22 made batters look foolish out there. If they get his control in check - he could be one sick guy. Then again we went down a similar road with Kyle Drabek -97mph with sick movement and no control. High risk - potentially massive reward. Trade that potential high reward for a negative WAR outfielder with mediocre OBP who hits homers - Colby Rasmus but with worse defense. And to have to pay him over $12 million. The conversation would start with prospects not in our top 20

I think this is nonsense. Dickey is a pitcher - not exactly a heavy influence with the players. Dickey throws a knuckleball - what exactly can he do to influence other pitchers? Howarth talks about intensity but Dickey has that - the effort is very clearly there like Halladay. Maybe he's not buddy buddy with everyone but the results are there - 200 innings of solid number 3 starter results is fine. Especially on the money we're paying him. I'd be fine trading Dickey now - if they can get a younger solid pitcher. But being pissed because the manager takes you out - I WANT guys who want the ball. I liked David Wells when he yelled at Cito -- I don;t want the guys on the mound who don't give a rat's ass.

You know vesting options are something to look into. Most vesting options are based on games and innings played. If you are paying a guy because you think he will perform then adding one lousy year via a vesting option doesn't exactly kill you. If Martin performs well he will be the starting catcher - and if he performs for 4 years then he gets another. What's the downside? If he stinks it up in his age 35 season he won't be starting and the option doesn't vest making it a 4 year deal. If he is performing well at 35 chances are he will for one more year.

yes I have interest in the Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders. Unfortunately, they only have interest in handing me a restraining order.

The thing to remember is that the GM lists FA's in an order of preference. If the GM feels the team needs a bat - he tries to fill the holes. Maybe Martin is the first choice but maybe no amount of money will get him to want to play here so you go to the next guy on the list. Not to mention that the Jays are on everyone's no trade list like Kendrick. The problem is that the Jays need to probably land 4 star caliber players one of which should be a legit shut down ace. I don't see the point of putting together a team that makes the playoffs only to get swept. They need a shut-out capable shut down ace(preferably 2). Someone to replace Jansen, a 2b, a CF, a LF, a C, a DH, and a 3B no made of glass. The team is bleeding at too many positions and the payroll is too limited to fix them all. The ship is the Titanic.

I get what you're saying - you want to have some innings eaters who are reliable so we don't have to rush the kids. But I think that you have to move MB if you can. He's got 1 year left - if he has a good season the Jays qualify him - $15.5 million do we do it? We need to if we want a draft pick. With my proposals (and there would be teams out there who would probably seriously consider both packages and trade 4-5 high ceiling prospects our way). Remember we would be offloading 70 million in payroll. You can buy a lot of Estrada 150 inning types for 70 million. We would take a step back for a year or two - perhaps finish last in the division next year BUT we'd have a pretty solid young team. When AA picked up Smoak I kind of thought he was going to trade the team. Smoak is a guy you pick up to play until a kid is ready. Estrada and Happ and Redmond and Jenkins are all a bunch of long reliever 5th starter types to fill the spot until the high ceiling stud is ready.

I wish this GM would bite the bullet and realize we're not close enough to compete - BUT that we have some young core pieces that look pretty good - I saw Pompey only once when he had that ridiculous game where he was making spectacular caches and hitting triples and I know you can't base it on one game but he sure looked like a 5 tool player to me. The Jays trade Lind the OPS machine against RHP and replace him with a place holder and a 5th starter. Wouldn't it make more sense to build the team around Sanchez, Stroman, Pompey, Pentacost and some of the other young pitchers and then make a big Marlins like trade to teams looking to get back in and who can trade us some up an coming positional talent to go with the pitching. Something like Bautista and Beurhle to Texas. MB's contract is a bit high but in a package with Bautista whose contract is very low for what he brings the two contracts together are offset. I'd have to think a lot of teams would like a number 3 soft number 2 starter and an elite RF bat number 3-4 hitter. A follow up trade of EE/Reyes and Dickey(and Thole) would also be attractive because EE's and Dickey's low contracts for what they do would offset Reyes. The other team could move Reyes to left, second or third (or just live with the defense as the Yankees always did) and get an elite bat and #3 innings eating starter. This would clear 70 million and bring in some young pieces. Bring in young SS, 2B, and a couple of power bats. In a couple years we could be KC but with more money

Is there a 2009 listing of what Boston, Baltimore, Tampa Bay, and the Yankees did for a comparison. When we say JP did a good job - I don't exactly see a stud in the list and he didn't sign Paxton so drafting and not signing to me is an indication that they didn't know what they were doing - they should know generally what it will take to the sign the player. Drafting a number 4 starter and a lefty specialist are nice but where is the stud core position player?

I like Casey and I like guys with excellent command and control over flamethrowers who have no idea where the ball is going. But in today's whacko baseball world some team will offer him something like $30/3 and that's kind of hard for a team like the Jays with other more pressing needs. Brett Cecil probably steps in to close and his K numbers look pretty sick. Maybe Delabar finds the command. Ideally you like an established closer if for no other reason to give the players some confidence. I know people grumble about the closer stats and blah blah blah but when a team has a 1 run lead and you turn the game over to Mariano Rivera - it feels a lot better than handing it over to some mediocrity that can only get mediocrities out. The closer is a big deal when you look at single game scenarios like in the playoffs. 7th game up by 1 bases loaded 1 out. You play the percentage you want the guy who is an absolute shut down strikeout machine versus Chris Redmond. But the Jays don't have the money to be worrying about playoff situations - the Jays are now the team with the longest stretch of years without a playoff birth in Major League baseball - so that makes us the worst franchise in baseball because the ONLY thing that matters is the playoffs. The money CJ will cost needs to go elsewhere. To cover the increased salary of Ricky Romero. Too many holes. CF will be worse. BP is worse without CJ. Everyone is going to be another year older (thus worse). DO we have money? Do we have prospects to trade?

Buck Showalter. Pay him triple to come here.

All the money needs to be put to starting pitchers as close to number 1s as is humanly possible. And land a full time 2B. Navarro is "good enough" to win with if you don't have huge gaping holes at other key positions. A solid catcher a solid second baseman - don;t have to be all stars - average defense and average bat is fine if you have a Roy Halladay, Roger Clemense, Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux in their prime on the mound. On good days those guys could win with a little league team behind them. When you give up 8 runs a LOT then blaming the catcher's pitch framing or Reyes who averages 1 error every 15 games is placing blame where it doesn't much matter. We have no top of the rotation starters.

It's not all that common to find a good offensive shortstop who is also top shelf defensively. You kind of choose one or the other. Yunel isn't liked in the clubhouse in Tampa and when we trade him not one word by anyone was spoken that he'd be missed. That's three teams in a row that don't like the guy. His value was strictly defense. He has no speed on the bases and hits for a low average and seemed to be a walking ground out/DP candidate. Reyes gives you something at the top of the order at least. Although the price is far too high when he's not in the MVP running. Reyes brings an excellent stolen base percentage to the table and I'll cut him some slack for the bad ankle injury the turf etc. The salary is the issue. If he were making $11 million you'd have less problems with what he brings to the team. But the bigger problem is what do you replace him with? The team can't even get an everyday second baseman and shortstop is even harder. The Jays won a world series with Manny Lee at short. I just don't see how the Jays would be able to move Reyes. If he has to move to second I doubt anyone would pay $20million a year. His stolen base percentage is good but 26 steals isn't elite - he's not a 50-70 SB guy. If he went to the OF you'd hope he could play center field where his numbers seem more suitable. But what would be his range? You'd think pretty good because he can run and he'd probably have an above average CF arm as well. a ~.300 10 homer 30 SB guy in CF would be okay if he plays above average defense as well. Who plays short?

The word in New York is that Travis is unlikely to stick at catcher and they are considering a move to LF due to his history of concussions. His numbers as a left fielder if they do move him to LF would have to see an adjustment. How good is his offense if LF becomes his position? Navarro is a guy you'd like as a solid back up catcher. Trouble is the Jays have a lot of guys who are good back up type players - unfortunately we have them as regulars. And no soup (err playoffs) for us as a result.

Melky, Rasmus, Lind could all be gone next season. Mayberry is the insurance policy depending on whoever is not retained and could be the starting LF or back-up outfielder or DH. Jays can;t sign free agents so they will have to find some scrap off the garbage dump and hope somebody is lightning in the ole bottle. That's the Jays for ya - always hoping someone will fluke into actually turning out to be a good player. Fingers crossed and a lot of hope.

Jaysfan It is important to note that the teams over the last 2 years that made the playoffs had top 5-7 pitching staffs. The teams with great pitching that missed had league worst offense or very near league worst offense in terms of runs scored. Ciny is an exception to this but an exception isn't a rule. The Jays offense is good enough that a top 5 team ERA would put them in the playoffs. Stacking the offense doesn't work against elite pitching. The Jays could probably trade for pitching but as we saw at the deadline - to get John Lester you have to trade Cespedes. Or in our case we would have to trade Jose Bautista or EE. Unfortunately, chicks dig the home run - so that's probably not happening. We can't sign FA's because we don't seem to have the money or the will to give 5 year deals to pitchers. We don't want to trade the young pitchers because they look pretty darn good at this point. Further we don;t have the depth in the farm to make multiple trades. So what can we do? Ride out another season with the same lot into the land of mediocrity. Or take steps back and unload Dickey, Buehrle, Baustista, Encarnacion, Reyes and trade these 5 guys to bolster the minors. I have no problem with a young hungry team - add a few veteran innings eaters to the rotation as stop gaps and a couple of pen guys and go with the youth.

My question is how do we get a top 5 in team ERA AL Rotation - cause that's pretty much the starting point to have a decent chance at making the playoffs. With Jansen gone and Dickey and Buehrle getting ever older and neither guy do you really want to see in a one game or three game playoff, where is the pitching coming from? It would be a lot to expect to have Sanchez, Stroman, Norris all become top of the rotation guys who could push Dickey and Buerhle to the 4-5 spots. (And that's what is needed). So the money has to come from somewhere. Rasmus, Melky, Lind, Jansen, Happ money and assuming we add $15million can we land a 1 and 2 type starting pitcher? Stroman and Hutchison might be 3 and 6 with Sanchez and Norris (QUALITY depth is critical) around for injury. This team really needs an 8 inning shut down Roy Halladay type to stop losing streaks.

Three year window - this is only year two - so we're going to watch the same disaster next year. He'll sign one $4 million bat and $3million reliever to replace Jansen. Line-up will be Reyes (SS) Kawasaki (2B) Bautista (RF) Encarnacion (1B/DH) Navarro © Lawrie (3B) Pillar (LF) Bat (1B/DH) Maybe Lind resigned for cheap Gose (CF) Cecil will be the closer.

The team needs some pitching - get that and everything else falls into place. Forget all the leader BS. Lead by throwing shutouts.

Last year the top five teams in the NL that made the playoffs ranked in the top 5 in team ERA. In the AL all the teams that made the playoffs were top 7. This Year the top six teams are (P=currently in the playoffs if season ended now) 1- Seattle (4th worst in the league in runs scored but still in the WC hunt) 2- Oakland (P) 3 -Tampa (second Last in the league in run scored) 4 - LAA (P) 5 - Baltimore (P) 6 - KC (P) 4 of the top 6 pitching staffs are IN the playoffs if it ended now and if Tampa and Seattle were even competent at scoring runs they'd be there too). NL 1 - Washington (P) 2 - San Diego (Last in the NL in run scored) 3 - Atlanta (1.5 games back in WC) 4 - LAD (P) 5 - San Fran (.5 GB of WC) 6 - Cincinatti (a bit of an outlier 6 in pitching and 10th in runs scored) St. Louis is 14 in runs scored and 9th in pitching and are in it 2 are in and 2 are right there. AA has been correct in drafting pitching but until the Jays have a top 6 pitching staff the team isn't going anywhere. If Dickey and Buerhle were our number 4-5 starters and we had three guys in the realm of King Felix, Price and Darvish - then we could live with Gose in CF and Kawasaki at 2nd and Valencia at third. Pitching wins and until we get some - we're bottom feeders.

Yeah - Cecil is likely going to be our closer next year when Jansen leaves. Uggh - next season is going to be tough to watch. Gose as the everyday center field, Pillar in left when Melky gets a 5 year $75million offer from someone else and still no one at second and an aging Reyes at short.

Yeah admit it - you guys want to go down on that -

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Actually since the trades AA has been back to his pre-trade senses. After the trades and the Jays had an ATROCIOUS year last year - he did not compound the issue by spending more or making big trades. Nope. The Jays crapped the bed and in the offseason he dumped JPA and signed Navarro. No assets traded and no long term contracts added. Which makes me wonder how much Beeston was involved. Beeston to AA "Make trades - I'm retiring soon and want a winner - do it!" Umm it's not a good idea becau..." - "No we need to fill seats - make a blockbuster - Get Dickey - he won the Cy Young - get Reyes he has an MVP." AA "umm but..." Then the Jays stunk out the joint. Let's not pick up JJ (fans complain that they should have signed him). JJ is out for the year with his new team (arm trouble). AA = looking good on that one. This year trade deadline. Jays are in it. But AA knows the reality - sees through the numbers and says to himself - the club isn't a contender. Need at least 5 players of star caliber ability to make a serious run. A Bad GM would trade Sanchez, Stroman, Norris and 5 other top 10 Jays prospects and get a couple of guys (an Ace and a bat) and we'd still suck. And then we'd suck going into the offseason with no prospects in the system. AA did a Pat Gillick - Stand Pat Gillick as he was called. We have Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde in the front office. All is not lost in the land of AA. Skip the trade and before and after he was on track to build a system. The farm looks to be quite respectable again and some shrewd trades for younger up and comers would be my choice. See Cherington. Guy goes out and gets a Cuban bat knowing that the FA hitting market is going to be thin and costly. Sign a guy who could be a stud for $10m per. Then use the money to land some pitching. Thinking ahead a year down the line. This offseason - the Jays should make some major trades. Build the team around Sanchez, Norris, Stroman, Hutchison and everyone over the age of 30 except Navarro and MB should be dealt. MB can eat innings and mentor and probably won't net as much given his salary but if you can get one top 50 prospect for him - you do it. Bautista and EE can net you large returns - big right handed power bats on reasonable contracts is difficult to find.

Whether some like it or not the Jays are not a pure sabermetric team and they still believe in things like leadoff hitters and speed and stealing etc which is why Reyes is a lot better player than Yunel Escobar. Escobar has had sub .700 OPS the last two years and again this year. He can't steal bases - 31 total in seven years and he has no power. He is the better defender but Reyes is better in every other aspect of the game and can actually be a useful part of the batting order. And he's not a PR problem. You'll notice when Escobar was traded there wasn't a word by anyone that he was going to be missed. All of the problems and issues go away if you can pitch. We win today because Stroman was excellent and the pen held. Pitching makes you look good. It's why Detroit and Oakland have gone all in on their pitching. I am pleased by what could be in Stroman, Hutchison, and Sanchez. That looks like it could be awfully powerful as soon as next year and you add Dickey, MB and Happ and you can trot out a good 5 man rotation with a pretty balanced offense. And who knows maybe they sign someone on top. Use the money from dumping Rasmus, Lind and Morrow for an Ace like Lester or whatever and you have something. This team is kinda like the 91 Jays - closing in on something but a few pieces away from running away with it.