Key22

What is the time frame of Tulo's injury - anyone know how serious it is? With him and Travis being glass - would trying to sign a Zack Cozart make sense? Chances are he would wind up being a full time starter at one of those positions.

Yes I didn't see that we had an option on Smoak for 2019 - so obviously we don't need to look to extend him. Jays seem to be looking to go for it in 2018 with the Estrada signing or as desperation to eat some innings. With them spending money it does appear they will go for it. My only concern there is losing JD for nothing. He should be able to NET the jays at least 1 or 2 top 50 prospects in the game and another 1-2 in the 51-150 range. You wait to the deadline - you get middling players. Or you back the truck up and let the money bags fall at his feet. Stroman, Happ, Estrada, Sanchez does look pretty good when healthy. Could the Jays afford to sign an Ace, maybe a Cozart at shortstop/2B and one upper tier OF? Assuming better health next year they could be in contention.

The way the Jay's management speaks they seem to be thinking 2018 is possible for contention which means no Donaldson trade. The worst thing this team can do is to let him walk for nothing. So if they think we're in contention for 2018 they should also think they will be in contention for 2019-20-21-22 etc. So let's assume they will look to sign JD - are there any other contracts vs age comparisons that can be made? Some have noted that positional players don't do all that well compared to the likes of a Kershaw. Would a $150m/6 years be able to get it done - way too high for the Jays to stomach or too low for market value? And then if you are going to make this kind of commitment it probably can't be done in isolation - you should probably then try to resign Justin Smoak to a 4-6 year $20million offer per year as well in order to keep a rather potent 3(Donaldson)-4(Smoak)-5(Morales) in the heart of the order. But then if you do that - you probably have to go further - the Jays would likely have to find someone to lead off with Travis/Pearce/Martin in the number 2 hole while the others bat 6-7. Pillar bats 9th. Tulo (or Barney or FA like Cozart) 8th. The money they were going to put to Bautista ($20m) could be used for Smoak/Donaldson. The money is there.

With 2017 a bit of a train wreck. We head to 2018 with a new budget and some players coming off the books. So what should the Jays be doing this off season? I will assume that Jose Bautista will not be resigned which should free up $20 million. Estrada and his $13 million also technically comes off the books though apparently they are discussing an extension. Some other minor role players off the books. Unfortunately we have an untradeable albatross in the $20 million per year injury prone Tulo. So it appears to me we have holes in the outfield, middle infield, starting rotation. *Can the Jays trade for help without trading any key prospects? *Can the Jays compete financially to land free agents that will actually help us? *Do the Jays have high quality MLB level prospects ready to fill in the missing pieces? ** Do the Jays try and extend Josh Donaldson, JA Happ, and/or Justin Smoak? So I suppose it's a "what should they do?" versus "what do you think they will actually do?"

They are cheap - I am fine if you trade them as well - but both pitchers have done a decent job - they are controlled for the next few years. The point I made which you choose to ignore is to go young. Basically trade everyone who is over the age of 28.

This is not a good baseball team. We have no legit ace - an Ace is a guy who can and should on most nights throw 7-9 innings of 2 run baseball with several shut-outs over the season. We have no such pitcher. Heading into the playoffs you probably should have at least 2 preferably 3 such pitchers - a terrific closer and 2-3 other pretty elite bullpen arms. Then a team that can score runs without hitting homers - because you are up against elite pitchers from the other team who typically don't give up many home runs. Oh and you probably should be good defensively so you are not giving runs away. Big home run hitting teams can muscle their way into the playoffs because they beat up on lousy teams and lousy pitchers. So the Jays can get into the playoffs with that and an abnormally healthy year and "good" overall pitching as they have done the last 2 years. This team could get hot and win 13/15 and get back in it but I maintain even if they make the playoffs they would get bounced by a Cleveland so what is the point. If, hypothetically, they trade all the one year contract guys: Liriano, Estrada, Bautista (who is a one year contract guy since the Jays won't pick up his remaining years), Smith for prospects. If you are already going to trade off those pieces you are basically killing your chance for 2017. The question is then 2018 and you have an offense that is no better than 2017 and a pitching staff that is considerably worse. So you have to sign pricey free agents. And what are you going to land with the above players in trade - certainly no first tier prospects. Probably nothing that will truly help you. If Estrada had been pitching well - maybe quite a decent haul but at this point you'll get a triple a Ryan Goins (maybe not even that) for him. The guys you can actually get something for JD, Osuna, Happ are supposed to be guys to help you win in 2018. SO if you trade any of them you may as well go full or at least half rebuild. You keep Tulo and Martin (because both are untradeable anyway so you have to keep them) and you build around Stroman, Sanchez, Biagini in the rotation (assuming you think Biagini is just going through some rookie starter ups and downs) and Osuna, Tepera, Leone in the pen. Perhaps you make a trade like JD and Happ or (Estrada and Liriano) to Houston for Alex Bregman and four of their top 10 prospects and 2 of their prospects from 11-20. Pay Liriano's remaining salary. Something of a blockbuster. Houston is going for it. They want a starter and adding a number three hitter and MVP on a relatively cheap salary they retain for next season would have to be enticing. I mean unless anyone here truly believes we can afford to give JD an 8year $200million deal? We're losing him anyway. Of course if Houston sees Bregman as the next JD we won't be able to land him. In the now though JD is a much better player and if you are going for it in the now - then they may be able to stomach it. I have no problem trading anyone to New York or Boston - that issue should be a non issue. Get the best package you can regardless.

The Jays have had the old Leafs mindset of adding some vets to not great teams and then they wonder why they don't win. Start fresh fee up the dollars and take a year or two back to become a perennial contender with a steady diet of farm system talent - it would be nice to get lucky like the Yankees with Sanchez and Judge (or hire better scouts). The problem is AA did such a great job of getting rid of Vernon Wells an untradeable albatross but then he gave us Tulo - and untradeable albatross. The team has to somehow get rid of this guy - trade him and $15million or something and just use Goins at short. If you get a great offer for JD pounce on it. Everything must go. Fire sale now. The team is old.Everyone on last year contracts - thanks but goodbye. Pillar - thanks but goodbye - if someone offers us something special goodbye - let's fact it - he's a defensive only outfielder. He is not an OBP guy so at best on a very good team he would be a 9-hole hitter. The older he gets the worse his Defense and speed. A lot of teams do sort of like this kind of player - but if you can land some sort of Carlos Delgado in double A or something - goodbye. Full rebuild - Create the farm system the envy of all of baseball and watch them all come up and blow the league away. This team has no shot at winning - even if we make into the playoffs - we'd be killed. I knew it the last two years. We don't have the the type of team that can beat A pitchers on their game - you have to be able to be situational hitters - we don't have that. If someone offers us something big for Smoak - you have to trade him as well. Sell high on him because you know our luck with Michael Saunders. I really want to see this team targeting Paul Molitor, Jose Altuve and Wade Boggs kinds of hitters. High OBP, Smart hitters, situational hitters, guys who can run (not necessarily steal) - Guys who can work pitchers and counts. Easier said than done I suppose. And go after the flamethrowers - the 100mph guys in drafts and trades - more chances to get Aces with these guys and if they have off games with secondary stuff - they can often beat you with the fastball. And if you trade everyone - we finish near last and get better draft picks - stating the obvious I know but screw the average fans - so what if attendance is 14000 a game - your payroll will go down to $40 million so you don't need 40,000 a game.

Yes on the first page and post of "signings" there is green, red and black for players that have been signed or will not sign (Red). Just wondering what the black meant. But looking at it it appears to just mean a player not signed and is not known to be willing to sign.

What does Black mean? Justin Dillon signed for $5,000 is that a typo? Or does he just suck and they want to create financial space. If so - the Jays can draft me every year at Number 10 for $4,000!

Probably old news but Jim Callis says Jays had the fifth best overall draft in baseball. http://m.mlb.com/news/article/236553468/twins-used-no-1-pick-to-have-best-2017-draft/

Hey we're in a battle with KC for the first overall draft pick next year - if we're going to lose this division and not make the playoffs - at the very least lose BIIIIG and get the first pick overall. Worked out for the Leafs pretty well as they seem like a nice young team going forward. This team sure could use a bunch of young talented players - I'd keep the young starters and "Be a Genie" who has been a Genie and as soon as the vets get hot and peak someone's interest unload. Trade Estrada, Happ and Liriano Trade the entire positional player unit if possible. Sooner the better to ensure we finish dead last. I want to see Latos and Lawrence as #3 and #4. Fans are gone anyway this year - may as well dump the salaries. JD, JB, Smoak (trade him while he's hot), Martin, Tulo, Pillar, Travis, Morales (no point in a pricey dh for an AL east last place team), barney, Goins, Pearce - the lot. Re-sign Kuwasaki to play short and be the number 3 hitter! I want that first round draft pick. Let's not wait 30-40 more games to figure out that this team is terrible. Unload now. Save cash for next year or the year after. Give some of our guys an opportunity to win a WS too. Be willing to trade within the division.

Looking back the Halladay Trade, AA was under the gun with few teams available to deal and Halladay demanding a contender. He landed: Travis d'Arnaud, Kyle Drabek and Michael Taylor. He spun Taylor into Wallace and then into Gose and then into Travis. So essentially Travis d'Arnaud, Kyle Drabek and Devon Travis But playing GM with our hindsight - what should we have asked for for Halladay - knowing that Drabek was a complete bust and Taylor had a grand total of 37 games over 4 years. Big name prospects. D'Arnaud has been solid when he plays but so far seems made of glass. The guys on the board who follow the drafts closely will know better than I, but I am curious if the Jays could have snagged say four guys from the Phillies A team back then and if there are any studs playing today rather than us taking the bigger name prospects like Drabek and Taylor?

He's a better offensive player than Smoak. He can probably be a better first baseman and a back up at second and third. That alone should make him a consideration. Depends on how the regulars feel about him. Is he more of a headache than he's worth?

Should the Jays not sign at least three more capable starters? I ask because let's say the Jays are 15 games out by trade deadline. There is no qualifying offer system anymore. So it would stand to reason that you would want to get something in trade for any player in the last year or two of their contract. That means Liriano, Estrada and possibly Happ would or should all be traded at the deadline. You then need someone to competently start games for the rest of the year. This would also mean trading Grilli, Howell, Smith from the pen, Jose and JD

Cecil lost a ton of velocity for awhile too so maybe converting to own he can regain it and be effective. But apparently he is a clubhouse cancer. Same reason they dumped Valencia. We'll see.

I wish Jose could keep his cool with umps and other players but I can't fault the guy's passion. He desperately wants to win and he seems like he'll do anything he can to win. I'll take that over some guys just in it for the money. Jose and JD are all out all the time. Morales is supposed to be absolutely great in the clubhouse as well. The team is looking pretty good.

Screw baseball - he hit his home run with her. He got plenty of money out of baseball and can retire in his early 30s - not too shabby.

Ahh - thanks John - forgot about that. Morales then. Even without considering the pick though - Morales still might be the better overall bat if there is an expected gain from going from all pitcher parks through his career to the hitter friendly Skydome (I will always call it the Skydome damn it).

A better question might be would you rather have Trumbo at 3/$33 (and 3 years at $1.5m) or Morales at 3/$33m?

if the Jays fall way out of it they will have the excuse to blow it up. After all they also offered EE more than anyone else in baseball so they can't be blamed for being cheap. Estrada in final year so he is easy to trade if pitching well. You could get a nice haul at the deadline - some playoff team will like a 1-2 starter and a guy who has proven to be a shut down player in the playoffs. Who knows you might even be able to dump some salaries like Tulo and Martin. Liriano in final year too - if he bounces back you can land something for him. The White Sox seem to have it right - start to try and rebuild. And Morales is okay - he was projected to get a two year $26 million contract. Big deal - we gave him 1 more at $5 million basically. It's a meh signing - a DH switch hitter with some interesting stats like hard contact etc and now finally in a 'hitter's park." Supposed to be a good clubhouse guy as well - so all around he's not a terrible player for the money.

I see Atkins implying that EE is not in their sights due to the fact that they already signed Smoak but this to me just doesn't fly because as you suggest - they can dump Smoak in a trade to get someone else's mediocre contract. It's not like Smoak is untradeable - he offers still some upside - he is decent at first, decent power and cheap. Plenty of cheap teams can use him. And such teams probably have an overpaid guy but perhaps at a more serviceable position that we can use - perhaps a back-up catcher or outfielder. I would try to offer EE 3/66m with two 1/23 team/vesting options. He get paid - if he performs he gets the additional years - if he doesn't then he becomes a free agent again. EE is worth the effort to try and do something here. He is worth moving the deck chairs around a bit. This team was borderline playoff bound. I am not exactly sure how removing JB, EE, Cecil, and having Pearce and Morales as the replacements exactly makes us better. We don't have the ability to trade for talent and other than EE who exactly replaces the production?

The WAR guys will say this is an atrocious sign since he only offers 1.1 WAR and he is by far the best reliever in baseball. My question is this - every team in baseball has analytics guys on the payroll and they all understand WAR. So what is it that these teams know that the heavy analytics fans don't know. There has to be something we're missing - perhaps relievers need a different metric or something. They must know something if they are spending this much on a closer.

The problem with Saunders is that he completely fails the eye test - he was looking like Colabello out there at the end of the season and his year end hitting was utterly atrocious. Sure maybe you take a flyer on him for 1 year $3 million or something but where do you put him? His second half numbers (last 58 games) .178 /.282/.357 -1.7dWAR There are a lot of corner outfielders out there

The problem is if we signed Moreland - we'd be stuck with his useless ass as well as Smoak. Two dung heaps. So we'd be spending at least $10 million a year for two pretty terrible players to cover first base. I so hope this doesn't happen.

It does also depend on how Shatkins views these prospects since they're not Shatkins chosen prospects. Teams value people differently. I believe it was LA's GM who noted when dealing with a club about trading a vet that he said something along the lines that Tampa asked for the "right prospects" and not the "name prospects [ie the ones on top prospect lists] - and the deal didn't get done as a result. I am sure they talk to every club on every player that could help them. Maybe you look at Adam Eaton - younger controllable and good too. So the team no doubt weighs things like - hey if we're going to trade 3-4 of our top prospects do we want a guy who is financially cheaper for 5-6 years or a guy who costs more money for 2? Or you look at older free agents like Fowler who if you have to go 5 years for a speed game guy at 33-35 - this is not so appealing. Is he a Tony Fernandez kind of bat at 37 and still able to make an all star team with his .427OBP. Or will he drop off in a big way. I did like the article on the platoon advantages - rather than playing those guys who are streaky you can play the hot hand - so having a Pearce and another like player or a Fowler who is fairly consistent all year. Guys who don't strikeout - that can be useful when making an out. With an excellent rotation - and a bunch of above average bats - add some relief and it should be a contending club. If I were going to trade a lot of prospects I'd probably want at least 4 years of control coming back. Like a Josh Donaldson (and look what we gave up for that).