Jays acquire Jose Soriano

[Pendleton]

Just don't trade him to the Dodgers

[BTS]

3 hours ago, Brownie19 said:

It's annoyance, not arrogance. I see it often where people talk about starters being 3/4 guys when they're actually Top 40 in all of baseball. 3 WAR starters are hard to come by.

It's a pet peeve thing.  You just happened to say it.  It's not directed at you.

I think we might be talking about two slightly different things. You can live with 3 WAR as your second-best SP over the course of the regular season and make the playoffs, absolutely. But a guy who gets to that 3 WAR over a full season of starts might not be a very great #2 in a playoff rotation. For example, I'd rather start Nick Pivetta, Nate Eovaldi, Logan Henderson, Gerrit Cole, probably Trey Yesavage etc... in a playoff game than Soriano and none of those guys are touching 3 WAR this season. Blake Snell is the obvious example of a guy who probably isn't giving you 3 WAR but you're fine with him as your SP2 come playoff time if he's healthy. 

[Pendleton]

 

[Brownie19]

5 hours ago, BTS said:

I think we might be talking about two slightly different things. You can live with 3 WAR as your second-best SP over the course of the regular season and make the playoffs, absolutely. But a guy who gets to that 3 WAR over a full season of starts might not be a very great #2 in a playoff rotation. For example, I'd rather start Nick Pivetta, Nate Eovaldi, Logan Henderson, Gerrit Cole, probably Trey Yesavage etc... in a playoff game than Soriano and none of those guys are touching 3 WAR this season. Blake Snell is the obvious example of a guy who probably isn't giving you 3 WAR but you're fine with him as your SP2 come playoff time if he's healthy. 

I know what you're saying. There would be more starters with 3+ WAR if they can stay healthy.

[Spanky__99]

Pretty decent page, man... lots of RED!
 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/jose-soriano-667755?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

[Spanky__99]

13 hours ago, jaysblue said:

Yeah Detmers would have been real nice to slot right behind Cease. Would have also been nice to have a southpaw in this rotation, and Detmers comes with more upside. 

But yeah, not complaining about Soriano, still a solid arm. 

Why's that, more upside? Because he's a LHP, I don't get what you mean? I think Soriano's a far better fit with this team and our defense, and I say this whilst a big fan of Detmers? 

[jaysblue]

21 minutes ago, Spanky__99 said:

Why's that, more upside? Because he's a LHP, I don't get what you mean? I think Soriano's a far better fit with this team and our defense, and I say this whilst a big fan of Detmers? 

Just look at the numbers already this season between Detmers and Soriano.

Detmers already about 1 full fWAR above Soriano in the same amount of innings this season. Detmers also comes with a better K/9 (10.44), BB/9 (2.74) and FIP (3.35) over Soriano (9.29), (4.17), and (3.79). 

Regardless, I'm also happy with acquiring Soriano and like I said previously, if he could lower the BB/9 here and pitching under Pete Walker, he could move to the next level and perhaps be a 4+ WAR arm for the Jays. 

I just think Detmers comes with more upside - like's he's capable of possibly putting up a Jesus Luzardo 2025 type season (5+ WAR season) with his stuff and strikeout ability. 

 

[BTS]

8 hours ago, Brownie19 said:

I know what you're saying. There would be more starters with 3+ WAR if they can stay healthy.

Kind of, but not just that. WAR isn’t the best indicator of how a guy will slot into a playoff rotation because it’s a complied stat and in the playoffs you just want the guys with the best arms.

Like Chris Bassitt was 47th in SP WAR last year. A clear #2! But really he wasn’t one of Toronto’s 3 or even 4 best starters come playoff time in the context of “who are our best pitchers in an individual game”

[jaysblue]

22 minutes ago, BTS said:

Kind of, but not just that. WAR isn’t the best indicator of how a guy will slot into a playoff rotation because it’s a complied stat and in the playoffs you just want the guys with the best arms.

Like Chris Bassitt was 47th in SP WAR last year. A clear #2! But really he wasn’t one of Toronto’s 3 or even 4 best starters come playoff time in the context of “who are our best pitchers in an individual game”

Very well said! 

Soriano is a great arm to have during the regular season in terms of giving a team quality innings and durability over 162. He's still alright being your #3 or #4 starter during the Postseason. Like you mentioned with Bassitt - he was great to have over the course of a 162 game season because those innings and durability are important. Though Bassitt was hardly relied on during the Postseason, only out of the bullpen, where he actually was very effective. Did we want him starting a Game 2 of a Postseason series though?

In a 5 or 7-game series, I think you still need another pitcher that is close to Cease's caliber when you battle a team like the Yankees, or Dodgers, or anyone for that matter. Maybe Yesavage steps up into a #2 or even Soriano takes his game to another level next season, who knows. 

 

[Laika]

Why are we comparing Soriano with Chris Bassitt? 

lmfao he's more like a Framber Valdez than anything. Slots into virtually any playoff rotation 

[Bob_Gratton]

7 hours ago, jaysblue said:

Just look at the numbers already this season between Detmers and Soriano.

Detmers already about 1 full fWAR above Soriano in the same amount of innings this season. Detmers also comes with a better K/9 (10.44), BB/9 (2.74) and FIP (3.35) over Soriano (9.29), (4.17), and (3.79). 

Regardless, I'm also happy with acquiring Soriano and like I said previously, if he could lower the BB/9 here and pitching under Pete Walker, he could move to the next level and perhaps be a 4+ WAR arm for the Jays. 

I just think Detmers comes with more upside - like's he's capable of possibly putting up a Jesus Luzardo 2025 type season (5+ WAR season) with his stuff and strikeout ability. 

 

Detmers will have cost more than Nimmala, coz the Cubs offered their #2, #13 and #18 prospects, so Atkins wouild have needed to add Tiedemann and Arias. By the way Cubs changed their mind, and traded Rojas for Holmes instead. They didn't liked the medicals info, so it's why trade didn't happened.

[Laika]

Not sure Detmers would have been a better target anyway 

He's a better strikeout pitcher and is outperforming by K-BB and therefore FIP right now but he has historic gas can tendencies 

[Brownie19]

1 hour ago, jaysblue said:

Very well said! 

Soriano is a great arm to have during the regular season in terms of giving a team quality innings and durability over 162. He's still alright being your #3 or #4 starter during the Postseason. Like you mentioned with Bassitt - he was great to have over the course of a 162 game season because those innings and durability are important. Though Bassitt was hardly relied on during the Postseason, only out of the bullpen, where he actually was very effective. Did we want him starting a Game 2 of a Postseason series though?

In a 5 or 7-game series, I think you still need another pitcher that is close to Cease's caliber when you battle a team like the Yankees, or Dodgers, or anyone for that matter. Maybe Yesavage steps up into a #2 or even Soriano takes his game to another level next season, who knows. 

No offense, but you've moved the goal posts.  Now he's a #3/4 during the postseason.  Got it.  I think it's reasonable to refer to him as a great #3.  If he's our #4 in the playoffs, then we're laughing.

His career xFIP is better than Cease's for context.

[Laika]

Jose Soriano has a 102 career Location+ (105 in 2026) yet a 10.8% BB rate in his career.

So he is above average at commanding his pitches, but markedly below average at avoiding walks.

It seems counterintuitive until you read up on what Location+ is.

Location+ is NOT about throwing strikes. At least not directly. 

Location+ is about putting your pitches in the "right" locations in certain counts. What matters to the model is pitch type and where it lands. Movement and velo are not part of the model. The main factors are pitch type, count, and handedness. 

Example: Throwing a slider and missing down and away on an 0-2 count right on right is a good result for Location+

Example: Throwing a fastball down the middle in a 0-2 count is a poor result for Location+ 

Expect to see a guy who doesn't like to give in and "just misses" the zone a lot due to the movement on his pitches. 

This actually sort of fits the Dylan Cease mold. 100 career Location+ but has always been more like 25th percentile in BB avoidance. Soriano more extreme. 

Freddy Peralta is another example from around the league. Blake Snell.

BUT these guys are all strikeout chasers, whereas Soriano is a groundball factory. It's weird, historically. Groundball guys traditionally are zone pounders. How often do you see a guy who can get groundballs at an extreme rate but chooses to nibble? Groundball guys "give in" on purpose all the time. 

Guys since 1990 with minimum 400 IP, predominantly starters, who have a GB% of 55 or higher and a K% of 20% or higher: 

Cristopher Sanchez, Framber Valdez, Jose Soriano, Logan Webb. That is the whole list. 

The "just missed" or DNQ list includes guys like Stroman, Brandon Webb, Justin Masterson, Clay Holmes (mostly RP), Zack Britton (RP). 

 

I don't know what to conclude other than to say he is a pretty unique pitcher, a rare breed, and I feel like there are a few different paths to development - could he better if he leans into his whiff capabilities (off speed arsenal) and throws less fastballs, which would cause K-BB expansion but GB% reduction, OR would he be better served to lean more towards GB tendencies and reduce the walks? 

You sort of get the sense that he is trying to be everything and it may not be the best plan for him. Not that he has been bad. But he could be better. Who are you? 

[Pendleton]

42 minutes ago, Laika said:

Jose Soriano has a 102 career Location+ (105 in 2026) yet a 10.8% BB rate in his career.

So he is above average at commanding his pitches, but markedly below average at avoiding walks.

It seems counterintuitive until you read up on what Location+ is.

Location+ is NOT about throwing strikes. At least not directly. 

Location+ is about putting your pitches in the "right" locations in certain counts. What matters to the model is pitch type and where it lands. Movement and velo are not part of the model. The main factors are pitch type, count, and handedness. 

Example: Throwing a slider and missing down and away on an 0-2 count right on right is a good result for Location+

Example: Throwing a fastball down the middle in a 0-2 count is a poor result for Location+ 

Expect to see a guy who doesn't like to give in and "just misses" the zone a lot due to the movement on his pitches. 

This actually sort of fits the Dylan Cease mold. 100 career Location+ but has always been more like 25th percentile in BB avoidance. Soriano more extreme. 

Freddy Peralta is another example from around the league. Blake Snell.

BUT these guys are all strikeout chasers, whereas Soriano is a groundball factory. It's weird, historically. Groundball guys traditionally are zone pounders. How often do you see a guy who can get groundballs at an extreme rate but chooses to nibble? Groundball guys "give in" on purpose all the time. 

Guys since 1990 with minimum 400 IP, predominantly starters, who have a GB% of 55 or higher and a K% of 20% or higher: 

Cristopher Sanchez, Framber Valdez, Jose Soriano, Logan Webb. That is the whole list. 

The "just missed" or DNQ list includes guys like Stroman, Brandon Webb, Justin Masterson, Clay Holmes (mostly RP), Zack Britton (RP). 

 

I don't know what to conclude other than to say he is a pretty unique pitcher, a rare breed, and I feel like there are a few different paths to development - could he better if he leans into his whiff capabilities (off speed arsenal) and throws less fastballs, which would cause K-BB expansion but GB% reduction, OR would he be better served to lean more towards GB tendencies and reduce the walks? 

You sort of get the sense that he is trying to be everything and it may not be the best plan for him. Not that he has been bad. But he could be better. Who are you? 

I believe I read that his GB rate has fallen since he started throwing the splitter and became less reliant on his sinker, but he's still a heavy ground ball pitcher throwing those two over half the time combined. The 90+ MPH splitter is still a fairly new weapon for him, must be a nightmare to time when it's played off the hard sinker