JAYS PLAYOFF TRACKER

[Olerud363.354]

1 hour ago, Laika said:

The Chicago Cleveland series is huge. 

White Sox sweep is the best case scenario 

Cleveland sweep is probably the second best. 

White Sox winning 2 is also acceptable. 

Cleveland winning 2 is extremely problematic for me

Cleveland wins 2, Toronto wins 2 is fine.  .5 back of the White Sox, 1 back of Cleveland.   Need to gain 1 game on one, or 1.5 on the other.   9 games to go.

Once again though Toronto in a must win situation or the seasons ends.  If we get behind 2-0 tonight I'm turning if off, rage posting, watching Dark Matter and not checking any baseball related news for 72 hours.

At 72 hours I'll look at X with no reading glasses so I can barely read it, and try to sense the vibes.  If I don't sense positive vibes I'm out until Wednesday September 30th, at which I'll flip channels to get a sense who is in WC.

If we get ahead 2-0 I'm all in and will be glued to the TV, X (with reading glasses on) and this fine message board 24/7 for a few weeks. 

[Laika]

4 minutes ago, Olerud363.354 said:

Cleveland wins 2, Toronto wins 2 is fine.  .5 back of the White Sox, 1 back of Cleveland.   Need to gain 1 game on one, or 1.5 on the other.   9 games to go.

Once again though Toronto in a must win situation or the seasons ends.  If we get behind 2-0 tonight I'm turning if off, rage posting, watching Dark Matter and not checking any baseball related news for 72 hours.

At 72 hours I'll look at X with no reading glasses so I can barely read it, and try to sense the vibes.  If I don't sense positive vibes I'm out until Wednesday September 30th, at which I'll flip channels to get a sense who is in WC.

If we get ahead 2-0 I'm all in and will be glued to the TV, X (with reading glasses on) and this fine message board 24/7 for a few weeks. 

Technically Toronto controls their own destiny 

I stole this from Twitter 

Toronto is 1 game back of CLE and 1.5 back of CHI 

CLE and CHI will distribute three losses amongst themselves in this coming series 

So if Toronto wins every remaining game, they will 100% make the playoffs 

Obviously they will not win every game but it's still nice to know and from that starting point you can think about all of the other scenarios 

[Laika]

Fangraphs says this is what happens from now on:

• Guardians go 6-6 and end up 82-80
• White Sox go 6-7 and end up 82-80
• Jays go 6-6 and end up 81-81
• Astros go 6-6 and end up 81-81
• Rangers go 6-6 and end up 80-82 

Basically, the AL West and the ALC and the 3 WC are up for grabs but nobody wants them. Whichever teams can go on a mini-run will take those spots. Mini-run meaning going like 8-4, lol. 

The Astros would win the division with 81 wins which is f***ing amazing, I love baseball 

[Masterbather]

17 minutes ago, Laika said:

Fangraphs says this is what happens from now on:

• Guardians go 6-6 and end up 82-80
• White Sox go 6-7 and end up 82-80
• Jays go 6-6 and end up 81-81
• Astros go 6-6 and end up 81-81
• Rangers go 6-6 and end up 80-82 

Basically, the AL West and the ALC and the 3 WC are up for grabs but nobody wants them. Whichever teams can go on a mini-run will take those spots. Mini-run meaning going like 8-4, lol. 

The Astros would win the division with 81 wins which is f***ing amazing, I love baseball 

So fangraphs is basically predicting everyone will go .500, which basically means they just flipped a coin on everything and have as much clue as any of us do.

Next time they should get monkeys to throw darts at a dart board. At least it would be more interesting.

[Olerud363.354]

[Olerud363.354]

8 minutes ago, Masterbather said:

So fangraphs is basically predicting everyone will go .500, which basically means they just flipped a coin on everything and have as much clue as any of us do.

Next time they should get monkeys to throw darts at a dart board. At least it would be more interesting.

That's how this s*** works.   All these teams are .500 they will go .500 the rest of the way is the best guess.

It can't predict the exact, only the mean.    It's not darts.   It's that these .500 teams have conveyed no info to us, other than they are .500. 

[Masterbather]

1 minute ago, Olerud363.354 said:

That's how this s*** works.   All these teams are .500 they will go .500 the rest of the way is the best guess.

It can't predict the exact, only the mean.    It's not darts.   It's that these .500 teams have conveyed no info to us, other than they are .500. 

Predicting .500 teams will go .500, brilliant. Darts would be more fun.

We're down to 12 game samples, darts have about as much chance predicting what will happen as previous performance does.

 

[Laika]

21 minutes ago, Masterbather said:

So fangraphs is basically predicting everyone will go .500, which basically means they just flipped a coin on everything and have as much clue as any of us do.

Next time they should get monkeys to throw darts at a dart board. At least it would be more interesting.

I mean yeah it's useless info but still funny 

 

The correct way to do projections from here on would be to examine all of the pitching matchups, probably. That will swing things far more than aggregate team talent. You can adjust a coin flip game into a 70-30 thing if there is a big SP tilt. Someone could go game to game and make more granular projections. Similar to playoff matchup analysis. 

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/probables-grid

One interesting thing on Toronto's opponent grid is that they may not face another tough LHSP... this year? 

Toronto vs LHP = 85 wRC+ 

vs RHP = 100 wRC+ 

Detroit looks like all RHSP.
Texas looks like two RHSP then Cody Bradford, who is just a 4 inning soft tosser I think. 
Baltimore looks like two RHSP then Povich who is not that good (this could be adjusted)