Blue Jays (Corbin) vs Yankees (Weathers): 5/18/26, 7:05pm

[Brock Beauchamp]

Alright, so now the Jays visit the Bronx. What are your expectations for this series?

	WED	THU	FRI	SAT	SUN	TOT
Yariel Rodríguez	0	0	0	0	14	14
Tyler Rogers	14	0	0	11	20	45
Spencer Miles	0	0	0	56	0	56
Mason Fluharty	2	0	0	0	0	2
Louis Varland	23	0	0	26	0	49
Joe Mantiply	0	0	14	0	21	35
Jeff Hoffman	18	0	23	0	0	41
Braydon Fisher	0	0	10	20	0	30

[Olerud363.354]

12 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

What are your expectations for this series?

We have the team with the most homers and the most walks in the AL, against the team with the least walks. 

This is a mis-match on paper.  

Some may argue the Jays are the 2014/2015/ Kansas City Royals.  If so they are doing it in reverse, last year they were the 2015 Kansas City Royals and just missed.

This year they are the 2014 Kansas City Royals.  A scrappy team with no walks and no power and no probable path to anything, the only road open right now is the Royals 2014 path.   They make the playoffs with 83 wins or something and a bunch of fluky things happen. 

Predictions from the different modeling approaches.  

Jays Center Hive Mind - Jays win series 3-1 on their way to Kansas City 2014 style World Series appearance.

Olerud363 - Bill James is not dumb.  Walks and power are important.  Yankees win series 3-1. 

Michael Kay - Justice will be served, In the end the righteous come out on top.  Yankees sweep with 44 - 9 run differential.

Fangraphs - Yankees are better team.   Likely win series 3-1.  

 

 

[Terminator]

• Corbin vs. Weathers
• Cease vs. Warren
• Yesavage vs. ScHitler
• Miles (PP) vs. Rodon

[Laika]

Jays will sweep

[james jones]

Would be lucky to split the series.

[Terminator]

• Game 1: I’m kind of worried about Corbin tonight. He's got 2 K's through his last two starts combined. But the Yanks have a lot of lefty bats so hopefully that helps him get through 5.
• Game 2 & 3: Solid pitching matchups.
• Game 4: I actually like a Jays bullpen game against Rodon but it will be important for the previous starters to eat some innings to make sure they are fresh for that game.

So tonight is probably our toughest pitching matchup, but we are catching the Yankees at a good time since they’ve lost 7 of their last 9 and the Mets taxed their bullpen pretty hard the last couple games.

On the flip side, our pitching is really starting to settle in. Our bats broke out at about this time last year, so hopefully they follow suit this year and the Jays take 3 of these games.

 

 

[Olerud363.354]

16 minutes ago, Laika said:

Jays will sweep

Updated with new modeling from Jays Center and predicted run differentials

Predictions for Toronto Blue Jays (a.k.a. 2014 Kansas City Royals) vs New York Yankees (a.k.a. 1961 New York Yankees (Judge/Rice > Mantle/Maris)

Jays Center: Jays sweep.  11-5 run differential

Michael Kay: Yankees sweep.  44-5 run differential

Olerud363: Yankees 3-1 25-14 run differential

Fangraphs: Yankees 3-1 21-14 run differential

 

[Olerud363.354]

Toronto Blue Jays a.k.a. 2014 Kansas City Royals

2014 Kansas Royals had Eric Hosmer - 2026 Toronto Blue Jays have Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 

Explain the difference???  You can't!

[Laika]

1 hour ago, Terminator said:

• Corbin vs. Weathers
• Cease vs. Warren
• Yesavage vs. ScHitler
• Miles (PP) vs. Rodon

Corbin and Weathers are both left-handed so this is a toss up.

Cease >>>>>>>> Warren 

Schlitter is pitching well but the Jays know how to hit him

Rodon is a fat sweaty mess who just came off the IL and Miles will be a mystery for the Yanks 

[hanton]

Yankees have a slg+ of 111, 2nd overall

TOR 96, 23rd overall

 

what happened to our power Pop (lol)?

[Omar]

I will take a split this series as a victory. 

[james jones]

1 hour ago, hanton said:

Yankees have a slg+ of 111, 2nd overall

TOR 96, 23rd overall

 

what happened to our power Pop (lol)?

Our big bats in Springer and Vlad have a nightmare offensive season.

[Terminator]

Cannot wait to watch Yesavage vs. Ben Rice in Game 3

Rice couldn't tell you the difference between Yesavage's splitter and his own a$$hole lmao

[Jays24]

Waiting to see the Yankees fans reaction to his ABs lol

[Terminator]

1 hour ago, hanton said:

Yankees have a slg+ of 111, 2nd overall

TOR 96, 23rd overall

 

what happened to our power Pop (lol)?

Last year on May 18 we had a SLG+ of 94.

We just have a bunch of slow starters in the lineup who can't handle cold Spring weather. 

Lucky for us the weather is HOT in NYY and I expect the bats to follow. Vlad (aka the King of New York) especially.

[glory]

1 hour ago, hanton said:

Yankees have a slg+ of 111, 2nd overall

TOR 96, 23rd overall

 

what happened to our power Pop (lol)?

Realistically, the biggest issues are Vlad and Springer. 

Okamoto: .215 ISO, 116 wRC+
Varsho: .170 ISO, 115 wRC+
Gimenez: .159 ISO, 82 wRC+
Clement: .107 ISO, 94 wRC+
Straw: .127 ISO, 119 wRC+
Valenzuela: .188 ISO, 107 wRC+
Sanchez: .148 ISO, 94 wRC+

Aside from Valenzuela who has no previous track record, all of the above performances seem pretty reasonable from an expectation standpoint (Straw is likely just noise based on sample size but his wOBA and xwOBA is almost identical so no luck involved). Gimenez likely stinks offensively and you hope he ends up closer to league average than what he was last season. Clement is hitting pretty much like he always has. 

Then you get to Vlad and Springer, and it's a mess. A combined 9-10 WAR in 2025 and we might be lucky to get half of that this year. Even if Springer's low years (2023-24), his xwOBA showed that he was significantly underperforming. Not the case this season. He's been legitimately bad and given his age that may not be a shock. The lack of Kirk and too much damn Heineman is another big issue that hopefully resolves itself soon.

If Vlad gets hot (he likely will) and Springer at least creeps closer to league average (maybe, he's looked bad so far, age isn;'t on his side), then we might see the numbers start to normalize as a whole. 

[mphenhef]

51 minutes ago, Terminator said:

Cannot wait to watch Yesavage vs. Ben Rice in Game 3

Rice couldn't tell you the difference between Yesavage's splitter and his own a$$hole lmao

Me too.  I have been wondering if he hasn't faced good splitters this season or figured it out.

 

Trey vs Schlittler will be fun too!

 

[John_Havok]

I'm not overly optimistic on today's game as the Yankees hitters historically have crushed Corbin, Jays hitters have very few total ABs against Weathers (15 for the entire roster combined) and they tend to not do well against guys they haven't seen much of. 

The key against Weathers is getting to his fastball, since it sucks. he throws both a 4 seam and a sinker around 95, but both of them get crushed. Change is about average, it's his slider and sweeper that are his bread and butter pitches for limiting damage. 

Key on the fastball and you'll have a good day. Swing at his breakers, you won't. 

Sweeper - 50% whiff rate. Slider - 40% whiff rate

4seam - 22% whiff rate, Sinker 10% whiff rate. 

[G-Snarls]

1 hour ago, glory said:

Realistically, the biggest issues are Vlad and Springer. 

Okamoto: .215 ISO, 116 wRC+
Varsho: .170 ISO, 115 wRC+
Gimenez: .159 ISO, 82 wRC+
Clement: .107 ISO, 94 wRC+
Straw: .127 ISO, 119 wRC+
Valenzuela: .188 ISO, 107 wRC+
Sanchez: .148 ISO, 94 wRC+

Aside from Valenzuela who has no previous track record, all of the above performances seem pretty reasonable from an expectation standpoint (Straw is likely just noise based on sample size but his wOBA and xwOBA is almost identical so no luck involved). Gimenez likely stinks offensively and you hope he ends up closer to league average than what he was last season. Clement is hitting pretty much like he always has. 

Then you get to Vlad and Springer, and it's a mess. A combined 9-10 WAR in 2025 and we might be lucky to get half of that this year. Even if Springer's low years (2023-24), his xwOBA showed that he was significantly underperforming. Not the case this season. He's been legitimately bad and given his age that may not be a shock. The lack of Kirk and too much damn Heineman is another big issue that hopefully resolves itself soon.

If Vlad gets hot (he likely will) and Springer at least creeps closer to league average (maybe, he's looked bad so far, age isn;'t on his side), then we might see the numbers start to normalize as a whole. 

Agree all around

I'm worried about Springer.  He just might be in full decline/injured beyond good recovery for the season. 

OTOH I'm more annoyed with Vladdy than I am worried about him because I know he's so much better than this...

[Waylanderz]

Let's Go Blue Jays!

[jaysblue]

Have to at least split the series or take 3 of 4. This can be a big turning point in the season. 

[Terminator]

 

[Olerud363.354]

47 minutes ago, G-Snarls said:

Vladdy than I am worried about him because I know he's so much better than this...

I still think he is beat up or hands aren't right.   Exit Vs still seem down, homer yesterday was 105 mph 365 feet.   After the game he made an odd comment yesterday about his slump not being over until he hits one where he can just stand at the plate and watch it.   

He should be hitting a few balls over 112 every week... until I see that not convinced he's right. 

[John_Havok]

1 minute ago, Olerud363.354 said:

I still think he is beat up or hands aren't right.   Exit Vs still seem down, homer yesterday was 105 mph 365 feet.   After the game he made an odd comment yesterday about his slump not being over until he hits one where he can just stand at the plate and watch it.   

He should be hitting a few balls over 112 every week... until I see that not convinced he's right. 

I agree with you. He's nursing some kind of injury for sure. My guess is something core-related

[Laika]

That's such a horrendous lineup I can't even laugh about it 

Lenyn Sosa fails his audition and is the cleanup hitter!? I get that there are no great options but surely Ernie should flip him 

[Omar]

Prediction: The boos tonight will wake Vladdy up.  

[james jones]

Js should stop doing lefty righty stuff.

No way Sosa is in the lineup, let alone batting cleanup.

[Spanky__99]

LETS GO BIRDS A SPLIT AT WORST, ANYTHING MORE IS GRAVY... GO JAYS GO!!!

 

[glory]

Pinango against LHP in the minors:

2026: .951 OPS, 29 PA
2025: .736 OPS, 92 PA
2024: .762 OPS, 117 PA

At one point last season JS pinch hit IKF for Barger late in a game, so clearly his idea of analytics are "RHB vs LHP = best way to go", but I really see no reason why Pinango can't start against a LHP when f'n Sosa is the alternative, nevermind how bad DS has been.

[Terminator]

Sosa has 99 plate appearances with 0 BBs lol