Blue Jays (Cease) vs Brewers (Patrick): 4/15/26, 7:40pm

[Brock Beauchamp]

Well, that was a wild one last night.

	FRI	SAT	SUN	MON	TUE	TOT
Tyler Rogers	0	0	7	0	17	24
Tommy Nance	10	0	8	0	0	18
Spencer Miles	0	43	0	0	0	43
Mason Fluharty	0	0	13	0	14	27
Louis Varland	23	0	16	0	19	58
Joe Mantiply	15	0	21	0	0	36
Jeff Hoffman	0	0	12	0	32	44
Braydon Fisher	32	0	0	0	17	49

[mphenhef]

Let's hope for a deep game from Cease  and a blowout for us or Thursday could be dicey.

[Spanky__99]

20 minutes ago, mphenhef said:

Let's hope for a deep game from Cease  and a blowout for us or Thursday could be dicey.

Same could be said for the Brewers... GO JAYS GO!!!

[Terminator]

2 hours ago, Spanky__99 said:

Same could be said for the Brewers... GO JAYS GO!!!

Yeah we've got a shot to bury the Brewers here. Their bullpen is mid and Patrick doesn't pitch very deep into games, even when he's clicking he can't go past 5. 

If Cease can give us 6 strong it will set us up well for tomorrow. 

[Spanky__99]

10 minutes ago, Terminator said:

Yeah we've got a shot to bury the Brewers here. Their bullpen is mid and Patrick doesn't pitch very deep into games, even when he's clicking he can't go past 5. 

If Cease can give us 6 strong it will set us up well for tomorrow. 

And I'd take Corbin over a rookie scuffling to get by 3.2 innings per outing tomorrow. Easy peasy!

[Laika]

Some more fodder for the crowd that wants Jeff Hoffman to be the SETUP MAN and Gus Varland's brother to be the CLOSER.

Fangraphs shows you various Leverage Index stats under the Win Probability tab. 

gmLI is the average Leverage Index when the pitcher entered the game. 

Varland is #1 on the team now. 

So, considering the season as a whole, Varland has been used at higher leverage than Hoffman. Of course that is tainted by last night, where Varland came in during a MAX LEVERAGE situation that Hoffman made. But still. 

#	Name	Team	WPA	-WPA	+WPA	RE24	REW	pLI	inLI	gmLI	exLI	Pulls	WPA/LI	Clutch	SD	MD
1	Louis Varland	TOR	0.53	-0.87	1.40	5.27	0.55	1.69	1.50	1.98	1.29	8	0.34	-0.02	4	1
2	Jeff Hoffman	TOR	-1.02	-2.29	1.27	-1.95	-0.20	2.31	1.73	1.73	4.52	2	-0.25	-0.19	2	3
3	Mason Fluharty	TOR	0.21	-0.42	0.64	2.62	0.27	1.51	0.98	1.41	1.57	8	0.13	0.01	2	1
4	Braydon Fisher	TOR	0.26	-0.32	0.59	2.99	0.31	0.66	0.76	1.23	0.77	5	0.03	0.36	4	2
5	Tyler Rogers	TOR	0.47	-0.37	0.85	3.84	0.40	1.42	1.24	1.17	2.09	8	0.40	-0.06	3	0
6	Spencer Miles	TOR	0.24	-0.29	0.52	2.48	0.26	0.66	0.61	0.95	0.27	2	0.25	0.11	1	1
7	Tommy Nance	TOR	-0.27	-0.53	0.26	-4.39	-0.46	0.80	0.61	0.71	1.00	7	-0.14	-0.20	0	1

 

And yes, exLI is the average LI when exiting the game and yes Hoffman's 4.52 is hilarious right now

[Governator]

I already picked up Varland in fantasy. His time is near.

[Terminator]

If all we are doing is moving Hoffman to set up and Varland to CL we are just rearranging the deck chairs. 

Would need to move Hoffman to low leverage for this to make any meaningful difference. I don't think it's quite that dire yet. Hoffman's BABIP is over .500 right now. 

[Governator]

5 minutes ago, Terminator said:

If all we are doing is moving Hoffman to set up and Varland to CL we are just rearranging the deck chairs. 

Would need to move Hoffman to low leverage for this to make any meaningful difference. I don't think it's quite that dire yet. Hoffman's BABIP is over .500 right now. 

Let him figure it out in lower leverage or until he stops putting multiple runners on every outing. It's not necessarily about the 9th, I'd rather at least have the option of Varland available if Hoffman is imploding.

[Jonn]

9 minutes ago, Terminator said:

If all we are doing is moving Hoffman to set up and Varland to CL we are just rearranging the deck chairs. 

Would need to move Hoffman to low leverage for this to make any meaningful difference. I don't think it's quite that dire yet. Hoffman's BABIP is over .500 right now. 

You can move Hoffman to 8th or do it based on match ups. Might be a situation where you want Rogers to come in and get a ground ball. Or you want Hoffman to come in get a strikeout.

When you need to finish a game and you have Varland you use him. There will be some nights the real save situation comes earlier. It doesn’t have to be perfect handoff I think its better when the situation in more fluid based on matchups.

[Laika]

Nathan Lukes is leading off LMAO what the fruck 

[Terminator]

 

[Laika]

It's really not a good lineup without Barger and Springer and Kirk 

Pretty groooooooossssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssss

[Jays24]

Just dont get why Schneider hates his fellow Schneider.  DS needs to be playing as much as possible. 

[Orgfiller]

16 minutes ago, Terminator said:

 

Lukes who is struggling mightily leading off, Sosa included to lengthen the lineup - I can buy this, except - at the expense of Davis Schneider starting.

Puzzling lineup with the table setters being Lukes who currently sucks and is not a high OBP guy even when he wasn't, and Varsho who at his best is still not cracking a .300 OBP.

[Jonn]

I guess they are hoping they can spark Lukes and perhaps they plan to bring in Davis for him anyway so having him in the leadoff spot could set up a better lineup situation later.

[HomeRunHomer]

They must really hate Schneider at second base.  

[glory]

We have to hope JS still has the “make puzzling lineup decisions that work every time” magic from last season. This is the unfortunate part of a journeyman minor leaguer like Lukes having an ok season during a “team of destiny” run. The amount of rope he’s going to get this season will be very, very long. Little literally had to blow like 3 games in a week in order to get demoted.

[HomeRunHomer]

2 singles and 1 walk on the year and now he is batting 1st. LMAO.

[Masterbather]

While I want Davis to play pretty much everyday and have wanted that since last season, I haven't given up on Lukes being an effective player for us. Let's hope he gets going. 

[Omar]

3 hours ago, Laika said:

And yes, exLI is the average LI when exiting the game and yes Hoffman's 4.52 is hilarious right now

So Hoff comes in during a high leverage moment (gmLI), shits the bed, and leaves it even higher leverage (ExLI) for the next guy!  At the same time his wpa/LI (-0.25) is the the worst on the team so it doesn't matter when you bring him in(high or low leverage), he is going to help your team lose, right?

[Terminator]

On Schneider vs. Lukes today: Patrick really sucks against lefties and it's a huge question mark for him moving forward if he wants to start.

I only know this because I own him in a deep fantasy league and have read everything available on him. He just doesn't have an effective pitch against lefties.

So with all the injuries, I think it makes sense to stack our lefties at the top of the lineup against him.

He doesn't have great stamina and almost never goes through the lineup a 3rd time. This configuration basically guarantees that he's done after 2 times through.

 

 

 

 

[jaysblue]

2 hours ago, Terminator said:

If all we are doing is moving Hoffman to set up and Varland to CL we are just rearranging the deck chairs. 

Would need to move Hoffman to low leverage for this to make any meaningful difference. I don't think it's quite that dire yet. Hoffman's BABIP is over .500 right now. 

Some guys just don't perform in the closers role. 

Hoffman was elite as a setup guy with the Phillies in 2023 and 2024. I don't see why he can't transition back to that role and have success as a 7th/8th inning guy for us. The numbers are a strong contrast when he was with the Phillies versus his time with the Jays. 

[ComeTogether]

2 hours ago, Terminator said:

 

Is this the first time Okamoto is DH?

[Jonn]

2 minutes ago, ComeTogether said:

Is this the first time Okamoto is DH?

Yes. All his starts have have been at 3B. He’s also played 2 innings at 1B to sub in for Vlad.

[ComeTogether]

8 minutes ago, Jonn said:

Yes. All his starts have have been at 3B. He’s also played 2 innings at 1B to sub in for Vlad.

Thx. 

Good to make a change.  Let him watch one from the bench.  With Springer out, DH is fine.

[DownSouthBlueJay]

Lukes lead-off? Maybe I'm ignorant but I thought you're supposed to put struggling hitters lower in the line-up

[The_DH]

I gotta admit, when Springer went down I thought Schneider would pick up some at-bats.  Good things seem to happen when he hits.  Now we're starting a scrub???

[Omar]

[neverbeenhere]

Let's go !!!