Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2026)

[max silver]

1 hour ago, G-Snarls said:

Could Josh Smith already be that? 

Maybe but I don't know how durable his results against right handed pitching will prove to be. His .296 xwOBA against RHP doesn't lead to a lot of confidence as primary platoon option vs more of a utility player who can play vs more favorable matchups.

[Laika]

21 minutes ago, Olerud363.354 said:

 

Something about the analyist just seems off.  Guys like Sean Keys.  Happen all the time.  Like every year a Jays prospect hits .300 .420 .600 in the upper minors with great power and exit velocities.  Remember Rowdy Tellez and Spencer Horwitz?   I do.  And they were a level below in different ways. 

Why would the source of this be Baseball America top 100 lists? Bad list bro. 

[Olerud363.354]

40 minutes ago, Laika said:

Why would the source of this be Baseball America top 100 lists? Bad list bro. 

I didn't claim it as a good list.  I said I have many Claude's going and they can show whatever I want.   It's great p-hacking these days.  Get lots of answer choose the one you like best. 

Starting point.  Despite hitting .300 .420 .600 in the minors, something no other Blue Jays hitting prospect has done except maybe Delgado and Guerrero everyone thinks Keys sucks... so lets give Claude some prompts and prove it. 

[Laika]

2 minutes ago, Olerud363.354 said:

I didn't claim it as a good list.  I said I have many Claude's going and they can show whatever I want.   It's great p-hacking these days.  Get lots of answer choose the one you like best. 

Starting point.  Despite hitting .300 .420 .600 in the minors, something no other Blue Jays hitting prospect has done except maybe Delgado and Guerrero everyone thinks Keys sucks... so lets give Claude some prompts and prove it. 

He hit 

.256

.387

.492

 

You must remember this his extremely good minor league 2026 was sandwiched by a less good (but still solid) 2025 and a bad tiny MLB sample. 

[Olerud363.354]

On 10/8/2026 at 1:23 PM, Olerud363.354 said:

Weird that he is not worth much.  He has good 2026 stats and good exit velocities.  The .200 average in Vancouver was a bit of a fluke probably (people were pointing out his good exit Vs before his breakout).

On the other hand his lifetime stats are .250 .380 .490 or so... which is the kind of typical aaaa line that doesn't translate well when you knock off the typical 30 points of batting average guys lose off their minor league stats.   And I think the career minor league stats are always important. 

So it kind of depends how you weight his last year.... like if he did this 2 years and a lifetime 1.000 minor league OPS he'd have to be a valuable trade chip. 

Bro.  I pointed that out from the beginning.  I got another f***ing Claude now using up all my precious tokens on another Sean Keys analysis, the tokens that I should be using to make predictions on the 10 year treasury yield which is behaving like a meme stock lately... but now I am wasting my time and my Claude's time on this (to be fair not all 20 are working on Sean Keys right now)

[Brownie19]

2 minutes ago, Olerud363.354 said:

Bro.  I pointed that out from the beginning.  I got another f***ing Claude now using up all my precious tokens on another Sean Keys analysis, the tokens that I should be using to make predictions on the 10 year treasury yield which is behaving like a meme stock lately... but now I am wasting my time and my Claude's time on this (to be fair not all 20 are working on Sean Keys right now)

Can you ask Claude to clarify what point you're trying to make?  

[G-Snarls]

1 hour ago, max silver said:

Maybe but I don't know how durable his results against right handed pitching will prove to be. His .296 xwOBA against RHP doesn't lead to a lot of confidence as primary platoon option vs more of a utility player who can play vs more favorable matchups.

Yeah. 

Now we've got what we got at catcher, first base, shortstop and third.  Those positions are taken.  

The only real places for offensive upgrades are at second base and the outfield 

And maybe DH.  At some point you have to decide if Santander is likely back and  productive.  I can't see them going after an all DH player though. Unless spring training actually happens on time and you know that Santander isn't good to go. Maybe you add an unsigned veteran then on a 1 year deal. 

You also have to decide if you think Bateman is good enough to be your everyday center fielder or not. And if so makes it all the more important to get some more offense at the corners.  Some of that could be Barger. But either way at LEAST one corner outfield acquisition is obviously essential. 

[Eat My Shatkins]

Suzuki seems like a perfect fit for the Jays on a 3 year deal. Aren't he and Okamoto close?

Ideally you'd love to snag a 2B as well, like Lowe or Arraez, but if they were to get Suzuki having 2B manned by some combo of Clement/Smith/McAdoo would be alright I think.

Between Barger/Keys/Santander/Lukes DH and RF should be covered as well, although admittedly that is a lot of question marks.

Still hoping the Jays go out and get Kwan. He's getting too expensive for the G's and gives insurance against Bateman being a flash in the pan.

 

[Eat My Shatkins]

The 2026 Jays season still makes my eye twitch. So many new acquisitions or guys put in new roles just excelled and they still came up short.

Cease was our best starter, Cy Young level of a season

Varland got moved to the closer role and was one of the best in MLB

Okamoto was our best position player with 3 fWAR

Bateman came over and put up 1.9 fWAR in 181 PA's

Hopefully they keep performing in future seasons but it's realistic that we may never see seasons that good from any of those guys again. To have all those things go as well as they did and not even be a 500 team is pretty frustrating.

[glory]

2 hours ago, John_Havok said:

I went through the league too and really found nothing thats even close. 

Some teams have contracts theyd like to move sure, but like you said, the chances of Seattle taking on more money that J-Rod is owed is probably a non-starter. 

Atlanta... they just don't need Vlad, so while there might be a way to work the money between the two teams, they don't need a 1B/DH.

Thats not to mention the NTCs that are all pretty much standard in these deals that adds another layer of complexity.

Lets just face it, the Jays will likely have Vlad on the team until the end of his career. They better figure out how to get him to get back to being a star

 

The other thing is that Rogers is very optics-driven. The Jays best shot at trading Vlad would be if he put up a top-3 MVP level season in the next 2-3 years. No guarantee that another team would take him with 10 years left on his contract but if he put up like a 160-170 wRC+, then it would certainly increase the chances. But in that scenario, optics-driven Rogers would want no part of trading their franchise player coming off an MVP level season because of whatever PR hit they'd be destined to take from it. So they can't trade him now when he sucks and they won't trade him later if he ever bounces back.

Vlad is either DFA'd some time in the next 13 years if he sucks bad enough, or he simply plays out the contract. I don't think there's another option. 

[G-Snarls]

42 minutes ago, Eat My Shatkins said:

The 2026 Jays season still makes my eye twitch. So many new acquisitions or guys put in new roles just excelled and they still came up short.

Cease was our best starter, Cy Young level of a season

Varland got moved to the closer role and was one of the best in MLB

Okamoto was our best position player with 3 fWAR

Bateman came over and put up 1.9 fWAR in 181 PA's

Hopefully they keep performing in future seasons but it's realistic that we may never see seasons that good from any of those guys again. To have all those things go as well as they did and not even be a 500 team is pretty frustrating.

[max silver]

3 hours ago, Eat My Shatkins said:

Suzuki seems like a perfect fit for the Jays on a 3 year deal. Aren't he and Okamoto close?

Ideally you'd love to snag a 2B as well, like Lowe or Arraez, but if they were to get Suzuki having 2B manned by some combo of Clement/Smith/McAdoo would be alright I think.

Between Barger/Keys/Santander/Lukes DH and RF should be covered as well, although admittedly that is a lot of question marks.

Still hoping the Jays go out and get Kwan. He's getting too expensive for the G's and gives insurance against Bateman being a flash in the pan.

 

3 years for Suzuki feels light given how terrible the free agent market is this offseason. 

[Olerud363.354]

5 hours ago, Brownie19 said:

Can you ask Claude to clarify what point you're trying to make?  

I think you guys are wrong about Keys.  His .220 average in Vancouver was fluky, and his overall minor league numbers weighed down because of it.  He'll be a great DH/1B for a few years. 

Might as well not trade him because we won't get anything from him anyway.  Won't be a 8 WAR guy obviously, but kind of Adam Lind like / Josh Naylor   useful piece.  3 or 4 WAR for a contender. 

[Olerud363.354]

If he doesn't fit this roster should be able to flip him for the 2b equivalent.  

When I say 3-4 WAR type obviously I don't mean year after year until he's 40.  These types may not be useful off-peak.  

So the Sean Keys 2b version, some guy who can put up 2-4 WAR a year in his 26-28 window.    Brendan Donavan type maybe.  Or maybe not.   I don't know.  Maybe Donavan types are way more valuable.   

[rydermike]

 

 

[Jays24]

8 minutes ago, rydermike said:

 

 

Could we make this work positionally with Okamoto/Vlad? Maybe rotate them 3 through 1B/3B/DH?

[max silver]

2 hours ago, Jays24 said:

Could we make this work positionally with Okamoto/Vlad? Maybe rotate them 3 through 1B/3B/DH?

I'd love for the club to acquire Suzuki and Sato and go all in on Japanese sluggers. I've seen it suggested that Sato may be athletic enough to play some outfield in the future. 

[Eat My Shatkins]

I wonder if Sato could play 2B if they signed him?

He did play a little RF in the KBO last season.

[Jays24]

2 hours ago, max silver said:

I'd love for the club to acquire Suzuki and Sato and go all in on Japanese sluggers. I've seen it suggested that Sato may be athletic enough to play some outfield in the future. 

Would be great to land those 2 but i think we would only go after 1 of them since we sadly still gotta account for Santandar. 

We gotta strike the right balance between upgrading our offense while not punting on defense completely.  One OFer and a 2nd baseman (hopefully Bo with the Mets eating a portion of his salary). 

[Eat My Shatkins]

The Jays should not account for Santander in any way, shape or form.

If he gives us anything next season it'll be purely an unexpected bonus.

[jaysblue]

1 hour ago, Eat My Shatkins said:

The Jays should not account for Santander in any way, shape or form.

If he gives us anything next season it'll be purely an unexpected bonus.

Agreed. Santander shouldn’t really factor into the Jays’ plans going into the season.

If he’s healthy, he’ll find his way into the lineup naturally when guys need days off or injuries start piling up. I’m not worried about finding at-bats for him.

If he can actually stay healthy, I could easily see him getting around 300 ABs over the course of the season without the Jays having to reserve an everyday role for him.

[jaysblue]

9 hours ago, max silver said:

I'd love for the club to acquire Suzuki and Sato and go all in on Japanese sluggers. I've seen it suggested that Sato may be athletic enough to play some outfield in the future. 

Sato would be the younger option with more offensive upside, while Suzuki is more of the veteran with the higher floor and a proven MLB bat.

I’d love either one, and obviously both would be even better, but I doubt that happens. You have to figure other big-spending teams like the Dodgers and Yankees will be heavily involved on Sato as well.

I do like the idea of the Jays continuing to target top Japanese hitters and pitchers, though. Hopefully Toronto can become more of a destination for Japanese players, especially after the success Okamoto has had here. There’s a business angle to it too. Building a stronger presence in the Japanese market could be valuable for the organization, so continuing down that path would make a lot of sense.

[jaysblue]

On 10/13/2026 at 2:56 PM, Eat My Shatkins said:

The 2026 Jays season still makes my eye twitch. So many new acquisitions or guys put in new roles just excelled and they still came up short.

Cease was our best starter, Cy Young level of a season

Varland got moved to the closer role and was one of the best in MLB

Okamoto was our best position player with 3 fWAR

Bateman came over and put up 1.9 fWAR in 181 PA's

Hopefully they keep performing in future seasons but it's realistic that we may never see seasons that good from any of those guys again. To have all those things go as well as they did and not even be a 500 team is pretty frustrating.

You might get some regression from all of those guys, but I don’t think it would be anything drastic.

Cease, at worst, should still be a mid-3 WAR starter, and he’s consistently been around the 4-WAR range throughout his career.

Varland probably won’t be quite as lights-out as he was this season, but I’d still expect him to be a very good reliever and capable of giving you 2+ WAR out of the bullpen.

Okamoto is the one I could actually see staying around the same level or even improving. The power is legitimate, and I don’t see why he couldn’t replicate his 2026 season. The worst-case scenario would probably be the strikeouts really piling up and his average dropping closer to the Mendoza Line, which is always a possibility with that type of power hitter.

Bateman is the bigger unknown because he still needs to prove it over a full season. I’d probably set expectations somewhere around 2–3 WAR over a full year. Anything beyond that would be a bonus.

[max silver]

7 hours ago, jaysblue said:

Sato would be the younger option with more offensive upside, while Suzuki is more of the veteran with the higher floor and a proven MLB bat.

I’d love either one, and obviously both would be even better, but I doubt that happens. You have to figure other big-spending teams like the Dodgers and Yankees will be heavily involved on Sato as well.

I do like the idea of the Jays continuing to target top Japanese hitters and pitchers, though. Hopefully Toronto can become more of a destination for Japanese players, especially after the success Okamoto has had here. There’s a business angle to it too. Building a stronger presence in the Japanese market could be valuable for the organization, so continuing down that path would make a lot of sense.

I do see early rumblings that the Blue Jays intend to be very aggressive in the Suzuki market this offseason. I think he's a perfect fit for the roster as he can be inserted into a starting role in right field and hit near the top of the lineup as well. I expect there to be quite a bit of competition for his services given how bereft of talent the free agent market is this offseason so fingers crossed the front office can get a deal done.

[max silver]

15 hours ago, Jays24 said:

Would be great to land those 2 but i think we would only go after 1 of them since we sadly still gotta account for Santandar. 

We gotta strike the right balance between upgrading our offense while not punting on defense completely.  One OFer and a 2nd baseman (hopefully Bo with the Mets eating a portion of his salary). 

Yeah my post was half in jest as there does need to be playing time available for Barger and/or Santander next season in case of sufficient health and performance. It remains to be seen how Barger returns from Tommy John but I did some light research and 90% of position players make it back to MLB afterwards. Recent examples such as Bryce Harper and Corey Seager saw their arm strength eventually fully return to normal so hopefully Barger maintains most of the outfield cannon as that was his strongest defensive attribute.

I have a really hard time seeing this front office being willing to trade for Bo as they were perfectly willing to let him go in free agency due to not agreeing on his relative contract value. I don't have a feel for what the dysfunctional Mets plan to do this offseason but I have a really hard time envisioning them finding a willing trade partner to take on Bichette's inflated contract even if they eat a portion of the cost.

[philly30]

33 years ago today, largest combined score in World Series History, 15-14 Jays Over Phillies

[Super Jays]

34 minutes ago, philly30 said:

33 years ago today, largest combined score in World Series History, 15-14 Jays Over Phillies

That was the game where Todd Stottlemyre had the bloody chin right?  I never got to see the endings of the weekday World Series games because I was a kid and had to go to bed.  I remember being very happy when I found out they won this game and game 2 of the 92 series the next morning.

[Eat My Shatkins]

One year ago today.

 

[philly30]

4 hours ago, Super Jays said:

That was the game where Todd Stottlemyre had the bloody chin right?  I never got to see the endings of the weekday World Series games because I was a kid and had to go to bed.  I remember being very happy when I found out they won this game and game 2 of the 92 series the next morning.

Yes that was the game

[Stangstag]

17 hours ago, jaysblue said:

Agreed. Santander shouldn’t really factor into the Jays’ plans going into the season.

If he’s healthy, he’ll find his way into the lineup naturally when guys need days off or injuries start piling up. I’m not worried about finding at-bats for him.

If he can actually stay healthy, I could easily see him getting around 300 ABs over the course of the season without the Jays having to reserve an everyday role for him.

If he’s healthy he’s playing everyday or almost that.

Don’t kid yourself