Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2026)

[Omar]

49 minutes ago, glory said:

Ross Atkins walking into those trade discussions:

 

They say that about Kwan every year.

[Omar]

3 hours ago, Laika said:

 

Betts at 2b for the career WAR?  They should plug Altuve in there.

 

 

[glory]

22 minutes ago, Omar said:

They say that about Kwan every year.

MLBTR arb projection for him in 2027 is $11.3M. I think it finally happens this winter (not necessarily to the Jays but in general). 

[Spanky__99]

4 hours ago, Laika said:

I just asked Claude to pull every "top 10 1B prospect" from mlb.com for 2011 through 2024

77 unique players
14 have 10+ career WAR. But a few of them aren't actually 1B in MLB and got a lot of that value from playing 3B or 2B or OF. Bellinger, Muncy, Yelich, McMahon. Not sure why they were all bucketed as 1B! Scouts are smart. 
The mean career WAR is only 6.5 but it is inflated by the handful of stars at the top 

The median career WAR is 1.0 from this cohort.

I think the median career "top 10 1B prospect" WAR being 1.0 says everything you need to know 

And technically Mr. Keys doesn't even belong to this group. He's never been ranked there. But he's probably as deserving as many so I think it's still fair to lump him here. 

Old Friend Spencer Horwitz is 28th best on this list all time, and counting. Here is THE GRAVEYARD (2 WAR or less, career). 

 

Jake Bauers

Jake Bauers, 3.6 fWAR last season baby! My baby Bautista, lol...

[Spanky__99]

4 hours ago, Laika said:

Is the RHP'ing career WAR skewed with Ohtani's Offensive production? It has to be right?

 

 

[Spanky__99]

1 hour ago, glory said:

Ross Atkins walking into those trade discussions:

Damn, I laughed hard.

[Brownie19]

Blue Jays Centre (@bluejayscentre) • Instagram reel

WWW.INSTAGRAM.COM

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2,120 likes, 70 comments - bluejayscentre on October 9, 2026: "Gold glove defender that couldn’t see btw #mlb | #bluejays".

Nobody thought to check his f*cking eyes?  Fire everyone! LOL

 

[John_Havok]

57 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

Blue Jays Centre (@bluejayscentre) • Instagram reel

WWW.INSTAGRAM.COM

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2,120 likes, 70 comments - bluejayscentre on October 9, 2026: "Gold glove defender that couldn’t see btw #mlb | #bluejays".

Nobody thought to check his f*cking eyes?  Fire everyone! LOL

 

Right? Like, is this not a basic thing they would be checking every spring training as a matter of the normal physical checks?

Remember Danny Jansen who finally decided to get prescription glasses and found he could actually hit again? Dude thought his slightly blurry vision was just due to fatigue. 

[Jays24]

1 hour ago, Brownie19 said:

Blue Jays Centre (@bluejayscentre) • Instagram reel

WWW.INSTAGRAM.COM

---

2,120 likes, 70 comments - bluejayscentre on October 9, 2026: "Gold glove defender that couldn’t see btw #mlb | #bluejays".

Nobody thought to check his f*cking eyes?  Fire everyone! LOL

 

I know youre not serious but aren't you the "they always know more than you" guy so everyone should never speak out? Lol

[max silver]

1 hour ago, John_Havok said:

Right? Like, is this not a basic thing they would be checking every spring training as a matter of the normal physical checks?

Remember Danny Jansen who finally decided to get prescription glasses and found he could actually hit again? Dude thought his slightly blurry vision was just due to fatigue. 

I've seen plenty of online images with Vlad wearing glasses so I think chances are better than not that he was wearing contact lenses in game.

[John_Havok]

1 hour ago, max silver said:

I've seen plenty of online images with Vlad wearing glasses so I think chances are better than not that he was wearing contact lenses in game.

I would hope so. Though the optics aren't great. 

 

 

 

Yup. 

 

 

I went there. 

[jaysblue]

Blue Jays trade idea involving Vladdy (probably never happening, but hear me out haha). Sorry for the long read.

If the Jays wanted to move on from Vladdy, it wouldn’t be easy. That 14-year, $500M deal is pretty much immovable right now unless they’re taking back some expensive contracts themselves, probably involving a player coming off a rough season.

I read the other day that the Phillies are looking to shake things up and could be open to moving Bryce Harper and Trea Turner. So, what about a deal built around those two for Vladdy?

Harper has roughly five years and $126M left, while Turner has seven years and around $190M remaining. Vladdy will be 28 next season, with another 13 years and roughly $460M owed to him. Using those numbers, that’s about $316M going one way and $460M going the other. Ridiculous amounts of money either way haha.

From the Phillies’ perspective, they’d be swapping two players entering their mid-30s for a much younger bat who should still have his prime years ahead of him. Instead of paying for Harper’s and Turner’s decline years right now, they’d be pushing that concern further down the road with Vladdy. Obviously, the back end of his deal could get ugly, but if they can get him back to being the hitter we know he’s capable of being, they could have a monster bat in the middle of their lineup for years.

They’d also lower their combined AAV, potentially giving them room to pursue another bat. Maybe they circle back to Bo, put him at shortstop and reunite him with Vladdy.

For the Jays, the main appeal would be getting out from under that 13-year commitment. Harper would be off the books after five seasons and Turner after seven, shortening the whole thing by six years. They’d be taking on more money annually in the meantime, but there’s at least a baseball argument for doing it, too.

Harper can still be an elite bat when healthy and would give the lineup some much-needed power from the left side. Turner would be the bigger concern after the season he just had, but the Jays have room at either second or short. If he bounces back and Harper stays healthy, those two could help them contend over the next couple of seasons.

Of course, the obvious risk is that both decline and the Jays end up paying around $50M a year for two aging players while Vladdy figures it out in Philadelphia. Getting out of the longer contract only looks good if the players coming back still have something left.

Maybe the Jays would have to eat some money or add something else to make the difference in total dollars work. I’m not saying it’s a straight-up swap that either team jumps at, but I can see some motivation on both sides. Philly gets younger and bets on Vladdy’s upside. Toronto takes on the more immediate age risk but gets a much earlier end date on the money owed.

Probably never happens, but would you consider it?

[jaysblue]

On 10/10/2026 at 11:14 AM, John_Havok said:

Right? Like, is this not a basic thing they would be checking every spring training as a matter of the normal physical checks?

Remember Danny Jansen who finally decided to get prescription glasses and found he could actually hit again? Dude thought his slightly blurry vision was just due to fatigue. 

Conspiracy theorists online think it's a fake story, only to cover up as a reason why Vladdy struggled so much this season, since it was part of the script that the Blue Jays weren't going to make the Postseason, so Vladdy had to have an awful season offensively lol. 

[John_Havok]

1 hour ago, jaysblue said:

Blue Jays trade idea involving Vladdy (probably never happening, but hear me out haha). Sorry for the long read.

If the Jays wanted to move on from Vladdy, it wouldn’t be easy. That 14-year, $500M deal is pretty much immovable right now unless they’re taking back some expensive contracts themselves, probably involving a player coming off a rough season.

I read the other day that the Phillies are looking to shake things up and could be open to moving Bryce Harper and Trea Turner. So, what about a deal built around those two for Vladdy?

Harper has roughly five years and $126M left, while Turner has seven years and around $190M remaining. Vladdy will be 28 next season, with another 13 years and roughly $460M owed to him. Using those numbers, that’s about $316M going one way and $460M going the other. Ridiculous amounts of money either way haha.

From the Phillies’ perspective, they’d be swapping two players entering their mid-30s for a much younger bat who should still have his prime years ahead of him. Instead of paying for Harper’s and Turner’s decline years right now, they’d be pushing that concern further down the road with Vladdy. Obviously, the back end of his deal could get ugly, but if they can get him back to being the hitter we know he’s capable of being, they could have a monster bat in the middle of their lineup for years.

They’d also lower their combined AAV, potentially giving them room to pursue another bat. Maybe they circle back to Bo, put him at shortstop and reunite him with Vladdy.

For the Jays, the main appeal would be getting out from under that 13-year commitment. Harper would be off the books after five seasons and Turner after seven, shortening the whole thing by six years. They’d be taking on more money annually in the meantime, but there’s at least a baseball argument for doing it, too.

Harper can still be an elite bat when healthy and would give the lineup some much-needed power from the left side. Turner would be the bigger concern after the season he just had, but the Jays have room at either second or short. If he bounces back and Harper stays healthy, those two could help them contend over the next couple of seasons.

Of course, the obvious risk is that both decline and the Jays end up paying around $50M a year for two aging players while Vladdy figures it out in Philadelphia. Getting out of the longer contract only looks good if the players coming back still have something left.

Maybe the Jays would have to eat some money or add something else to make the difference in total dollars work. I’m not saying it’s a straight-up swap that either team jumps at, but I can see some motivation on both sides. Philly gets younger and bets on Vladdy’s upside. Toronto takes on the more immediate age risk but gets a much earlier end date on the money owed.

Probably never happens, but would you consider it?

I would not. 

Id rather take the upside chance that Vlad, at his age, figures it out over the next 5ish seasons and get at least some value out of the mega deal. 

Taking the other two on onstead....yes it would be shorter pain but more costly. The upside really isnt there. You know the cliff is directly ahead already for Harper and Turner its just a matter of how steep the fall is.

With Vlad, at least theres still a chance he puts up a few 5 fWAR seasons.

[max silver]

22 hours ago, John_Havok said:

I would not. 

Id rather take the upside chance that Vlad, at his age, figures it out over the next 5ish seasons and get at least some value out of the mega deal. 

Taking the other two on onstead....yes it would be shorter pain but more costly. The upside really isnt there. You know the cliff is directly ahead already for Harper and Turner its just a matter of how steep the fall is.

With Vlad, at least theres still a chance he puts up a few 5 fWAR seasons.

I wouldn't make this trade either. I think it's just trading one potential problem for two of them. Turner may already been in the midst of a steep decline on both sides of the ball although I wouldn't rule a bounceback season with the bat. I wouldn't want to trade for the 34+ age seasons for two aging players earning a combined $52 million AAV for the next 6-7 years as that would lessen the roster flexibility and lead to two expensive aging veterans vs only one that hopefully won't happen until later on. One thing I wonder about is whether Edward Rogers would sign off on a deal like this as he was likely directly involved in the hostage style "negotiation" where Vlad held the organization to the fire. 

[max silver]

On 10/11/2026 at 9:08 AM, jaysblue said:

Blue Jays trade idea involving Vladdy (probably never happening, but hear me out haha). Sorry for the long read.

If the Jays wanted to move on from Vladdy, it wouldn’t be easy. That 14-year, $500M deal is pretty much immovable right now unless they’re taking back some expensive contracts themselves, probably involving a player coming off a rough season.

I read the other day that the Phillies are looking to shake things up and could be open to moving Bryce Harper and Trea Turner. So, what about a deal built around those two for Vladdy?

Harper has roughly five years and $126M left, while Turner has seven years and around $190M remaining. Vladdy will be 28 next season, with another 13 years and roughly $460M owed to him. Using those numbers, that’s about $316M going one way and $460M going the other. Ridiculous amounts of money either way haha.

From the Phillies’ perspective, they’d be swapping two players entering their mid-30s for a much younger bat who should still have his prime years ahead of him. Instead of paying for Harper’s and Turner’s decline years right now, they’d be pushing that concern further down the road with Vladdy. Obviously, the back end of his deal could get ugly, but if they can get him back to being the hitter we know he’s capable of being, they could have a monster bat in the middle of their lineup for years.

They’d also lower their combined AAV, potentially giving them room to pursue another bat. Maybe they circle back to Bo, put him at shortstop and reunite him with Vladdy.

For the Jays, the main appeal would be getting out from under that 13-year commitment. Harper would be off the books after five seasons and Turner after seven, shortening the whole thing by six years. They’d be taking on more money annually in the meantime, but there’s at least a baseball argument for doing it, too.

Harper can still be an elite bat when healthy and would give the lineup some much-needed power from the left side. Turner would be the bigger concern after the season he just had, but the Jays have room at either second or short. If he bounces back and Harper stays healthy, those two could help them contend over the next couple of seasons.

Of course, the obvious risk is that both decline and the Jays end up paying around $50M a year for two aging players while Vladdy figures it out in Philadelphia. Getting out of the longer contract only looks good if the players coming back still have something left.

Maybe the Jays would have to eat some money or add something else to make the difference in total dollars work. I’m not saying it’s a straight-up swap that either team jumps at, but I can see some motivation on both sides. Philly gets younger and bets on Vladdy’s upside. Toronto takes on the more immediate age risk but gets a much earlier end date on the money owed.

Probably never happens, but would you consider it?

With the rumblings out of New York that Lindor and Soto aren't getting along I wonder if Lindor may eventually become available through trade and whether the Blue Jays front office would still be interested in acquiring him. I believe a good deal of his tough 2026 season was due to injury and he played at about a 4 win full season pace over the final 3 months of the season. There are plenty of complicating factors including the fact that Lindor has a full no trade clause and has stated that he intends to finish his contract in New York. 

[Goldbug109]

On 2/9/2026 at 6:38 AM, Olerud363.354 said:

I don't think anyone wanted him released, more just speculating whether he could get released if his arb salary got way above his value.   

His WAR was tracking Cody Bellingers who went from a very similar start as compared to Vlad to having no value, but a huge arbitration salary and got released.  People also mentioned Jayson Heyward, even Vernon Wells who went from MVP candidate level to useless year to year.

Interestingly both Vlad and Bellinger turned it around and are probably tracking to have similar careers in terms of total WAR.  

The arb system rewards a combination of counting stats and seniority.  After Vlad 6 WAR 2021, he got 8 millioin, after his 1 WAR 2023 he got almost 20 million.     People were just speculating what would happen if his arb salary was once again way more than his value...  He had a great 2024 so we didn't arrive to that scenario. 

 

I would jump on any deal to get rid of Guerrero. He has a serious attitude problem, won’t accept demotion or make adjustments. Even his ‘good years’ were hardly worth 36 million/ year. And he’s a 1st baseman that can’t get the ball out of the infield. It’s really embarrassing and makes the FO look bad especially when attracting future talent. Taking on two bad contracts that expire earlier is a no brainer to me. If the contract is insured in case of injury, I’d force him in left field and hope that his knee blows out so that he can be DLed in perpuity.

[John_Havok]

4 hours ago, Goldbug109 said:

I would jump on any deal to get rid of Guerrero. He has a serious attitude problem, won’t accept demotion or make adjustments. Even his ‘good years’ were hardly worth 36 million/ year. And he’s a 1st baseman that can’t get the ball out of the infield. It’s really embarrassing and makes the FO look bad especially when attracting future talent. Taking on two bad contracts that expire earlier is a no brainer to me. If the contract is insured in case of injury, I’d force him in left field and hope that his knee blows out so that he can be DLed in perpuity.

This thought process is full of emotional baggage. 

Harper and Turner may be shorter, but youre also running the very real risk of trading 1 bad contract for 2, that cost 50% more. 

The age difference and career upside remaining is also heavily skewed against the 2 vs the 1.

If theres a 1 for 1 bad contract trade to be had where age is closer and the other deal shorter, sure.... explore the deal but theres no team out there taking Vlad as is unless you bail them out, which is contrary to the goal of trading Vlad which is to bail the Jays out. 

[jaysblue]

9 hours ago, John_Havok said:

If theres a 1 for 1 bad contract trade to be had where age is closer and the other deal shorter, sure.... explore the deal but theres no team out there taking Vlad as is unless you bail them out, which is contrary to the goal of trading Vlad which is to bail the Jays out. 

I was trying to think of a comparable player with a bad contract who could make sense in a Vladdy trade, but couldn’t really come up with anyone.

Even if the Mariners wanted to shake things up, there isn’t an obvious fit. I doubt they’d move J-Rod for Vladdy given how much money Vlad is still owed. I did read this piece discussing concerns about Julio and whether he’ll become the star they were expecting: https://sodomojo.com/it-s-too-soon-to-fret-over-mariners-upcoming-240m-julio-rodriguez-decision

If their contracts were similar, I could see the argument for a one-for-one swap. Both teams would be betting on a change of scenery getting more out of the player coming back. But that roughly $460M remaining on Vlad’s deal is the big deterrent.

Maybe there’s something with the Braves, but I doubt they’d have the payroll room or willingness to take on that contract. Acuna is making next to nothing relative to his talent and is much closer to free agency, so I can’t see that making sense for Atlanta. Austin Riley might be someone they’d consider moving, but he looks pretty cooked himself.

[Olerud363.354]

On 10/9/2026 at 2:02 PM, Laika said:

But the tools are not otherworldly, at all. 

And these guys come up all the time.

Doesn't seem like these guys come up all the time.  When was the last time Jays had a guy like this?  Josh Phelps?  Adam Lind ?  Who am I missing?  Keys has better secondary skills then both.  

We can get anything we want with this stuff now.  My Claude has Carlos Delgado as a Keys comparable.   

Laika is the smartest guy on the board no doubt...  but in the age of Claude the playing field is more even.  Especially for those like me, long term unemployed, who has had time to learn all the tmux keyboard short cuts and have 20 Claude';s going at once and can switch real fast, have all of them approaching the problem from different angles, and choose which one I like best.  

I like this one.  To be fair I actually didn't choose the best Sean keys analysis out of all 20.   This is one of the better ones, 

[Olerud363.354]

I am not even sure what we are arguing bout to be honest. 

I think the conversation started because people are like flip Sean Keys for a similar guy who has positional fit.

But then it's like 'Sean Keys sucks because all 1b prospects suck'

Then it's like '2b prospect suck too'

OK.  So great.  Trade Sean Keys for a platoon partner for Ernie Clement.  If a fit exists I mean.  I don't know if in the year 2026 some team that needs a 1b fill-in has a platoon 2b to give us.  Like maybe a match exists maybe it doesn't.  I don't know. 

[bluejaysinternNo5]

30 minutes ago, Olerud363.354 said:

all the tmux keyboard short cuts

I never expected an Olerud / Linux crossover but I suppose I should have 

[Brownie19]

34 minutes ago, Olerud363.354 said:

I am not even sure what we are arguing bout to be honest. 

I think the conversation started because people are like flip Sean Keys for a similar guy who has positional fit.

But then it's like 'Sean Keys sucks because all 1b prospects suck'

Then it's like '2b prospect suck too'

OK.  So great.  Trade Sean Keys for a platoon partner for Ernie Clement.  If a fit exists I mean.  I don't know if in the year 2026 some team that needs a 1b fill-in has a platoon 2b to give us.  Like maybe a match exists maybe it doesn't.  I don't know. 

Someone suggested we trade him for a long term solution at 2nd base and said don't f*ck it up like the Varsho deal.

We simply suggested that Keys doesn't have a ton of trade value and that trading him for some 2nd baseman who becomes a franchise cornerstone isn't overly realistic.

That's it.  It's not that complicated.

[Laika]

25 minutes ago, Olerud363.354 said:

I am not even sure what we are arguing bout to be honest. 

I think the conversation started because people are like flip Sean Keys for a similar guy who has positional fit.

But then it's like 'Sean Keys sucks because all 1b prospects suck'

Then it's like '2b prospect suck too'

OK.  So great.  Trade Sean Keys for a platoon partner for Ernie Clement.  If a fit exists I mean.  I don't know if in the year 2026 some team that needs a 1b fill-in has a platoon 2b to give us.  Like maybe a match exists maybe it doesn't.  I don't know. 

Well the core of the line of discussion here is just "Sean Keys isn't worth much in the trade market."

I ended up producing a short list of crummy 2B prospects or former prospects and offering them as possible trade targets.  

All 1B prospects do not literally suck but they suck as a heuristic and the hyperbole displays why Keys has no trade value

Your sample helps prove the point

Half of those players (or more) just sucked.
Some of the good ones had more defensive utility, quite obviously. 
Delgado sneaks into the sample with his age 22 year and had way better hitting tools.

It is completely possible that Keys has a Lucas Duda career. Up and down for a few years and then puts together a good season or two around age 28-30. There is no denying it. I guess it's also theoretically possible for him to become a fringe OF and have something closer to Aubrey Huff career. 

[Olerud363.354]

8 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

We simply suggested that Keys doesn't have a ton of trade value and that trading him for some 2nd baseman who becomes a franchise cornerstone isn't overly realistic.

But 2b according to data and Claude also suck, so should be a no-brainer to trade him for the 2b equivalent of himself, who ever that is, as long as the other team want the next Jason Giambi so we can get the next Joe Panik,. 

[G-Snarls]

50 minutes ago, Olerud363.354 said:

OK.  So great.  Trade Sean Keys for a platoon partner for Ernie Clement.  If a fit exists I mean.  I don't know if in the year 2026 some team that needs a 1b fill-in has a platoon 2b to give us.  Like maybe a match exists maybe it doesn't.  I don't know. 

Could Josh Smith already be that? 

[Olerud363.354]

Anyway I give up.  No one will ever trade us even the next Joe Panik or Cavan Biggio for Keys.   

Keys is just like Rowdy Tellez except with way better stats but probably even worse.  

He is just like Cavan Biggio except hits the ball hard.  Howevew he will fail in ways Biggio can't imagine. 

He is just like Ben Rice except like if Ben Rice was a total failure even worse that Cavan Biggio. 

Release him now and open up a 40 man roster spot for the next Lenyn Sosa who has 5% the walk rate, 90% the hard hit rate of Keys. 

 

[Brownie19]

35 minutes ago, Olerud363.354 said:

But 2b according to data and Claude also suck, so should be a no-brainer to trade him for the 2b equivalent of himself, who ever that is, as long as the other team want the next Jason Giambi so we can get the next Joe Panik,. 

Yes - exactly, young 2nd base prospects also suck.  So how the F is Sean Keys going to land us the franchise's next keystone mainstay who's not an embarrassment like Varsho was?  

Are you trying to help us prove the point?

[Olerud363.354]

14 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

Yes - exactly, young 2nd base prospects also suck.  So how the F is Sean Keys going to land us the franchise's next keystone mainstay who's not an embarrassment like Varsho was?  

Are you trying to help us prove the point?

 

Something about the analyist just seems off.  Guys like Sean Keys.  Happen all the time.  Like every year a Jays prospect hits .300 .420 .600 in the upper minors with great power and exit velocities.  Remember Rowdy Tellez and Spencer Horwitz?   I do.  And they were a level below in different ways. 

[John_Havok]

5 hours ago, jaysblue said:

I was trying to think of a comparable player with a bad contract who could make sense in a Vladdy trade, but couldn’t really come up with anyone.

Even if the Mariners wanted to shake things up, there isn’t an obvious fit. I doubt they’d move J-Rod for Vladdy given how much money Vlad is still owed. I did read this piece discussing concerns about Julio and whether he’ll become the star they were expecting: https://sodomojo.com/it-s-too-soon-to-fret-over-mariners-upcoming-240m-julio-rodriguez-decision

If their contracts were similar, I could see the argument for a one-for-one swap. Both teams would be betting on a change of scenery getting more out of the player coming back. But that roughly $460M remaining on Vlad’s deal is the big deterrent.

Maybe there’s something with the Braves, but I doubt they’d have the payroll room or willingness to take on that contract. Acuna is making next to nothing relative to his talent and is much closer to free agency, so I can’t see that making sense for Atlanta. Austin Riley might be someone they’d consider moving, but he looks pretty cooked himself.

I went through the league too and really found nothing thats even close. 

Some teams have contracts theyd like to move sure, but like you said, the chances of Seattle taking on more money that J-Rod is owed is probably a non-starter. 

Atlanta... they just don't need Vlad, so while there might be a way to work the money between the two teams, they don't need a 1B/DH.

Thats not to mention the NTCs that are all pretty much standard in these deals that adds another layer of complexity.

Lets just face it, the Jays will likely have Vlad on the team until the end of his career. They better figure out how to get him to get back to being a star