Around Baseball 2026

[John_Havok]

2 hours ago, Nexii said:

Revenue sharing already looks pretty significant in MLB? Something like 200M per team, is that really true?

It seems the issue is teams not spending their revenue sharing. They should lose every dollar that they don't spend on salaries, IMO. If they did I'm not sure you'd really even need a luxury tax. 

 

There are a few grievances right now from the PA against some owners, which is probably why some of the typically lower spending trams have dropped some cash on signings this offseason.

And with the obvious lockout coming up, it never hurts to get public opinion on the owner's  side. A few ridiculous overspends by teams that can do it always sends the casuals in to a frenzy of "why do these players think theyre worth so much" 

[jaysblue]

Ha-seong Kim is made of glass. 

Kim underwent surgery Sunday to repair a torn tendon in his right middle finger and is facing an estimated recovery timeline of 4-to-5 months.

Kim inked a one-year, $20 million contract with Atlanta in December, but he'll now be unavailable for the start of the upcoming campaign after recently sustaining the injury after he slipped on ice while back home in his native South Korea, per Mark Bowman of MLB.com. The 30-year-old was limited to 48 games for Tampa Bay and Atlanta last season due to injuries, and his 2026 is also off to an unfortunate start. Based on the initial timeline, Kim shouldn't be expected to make his season debut until at least mid-May but could be out longer, potentially leaving Mauricio Dubon or Nacho Alvarez to fill in at shortstop for much of the first half.

[Stangstag]

Yeah that’s an insane injury and recovery time lol. What a guy 

[Jays24]

8 minutes ago, jaysblue said:

Ha-seong Kim is made of glass. 

Kim underwent surgery Sunday to repair a torn tendon in his right middle finger and is facing an estimated recovery timeline of 4-to-5 months.

Kim inked a one-year, $20 million contract with Atlanta in December, but he'll now be unavailable for the start of the upcoming campaign after recently sustaining the injury after he slipped on ice while back home in his native South Korea, per Mark Bowman of MLB.com. The 30-year-old was limited to 48 games for Tampa Bay and Atlanta last season due to injuries, and his 2026 is also off to an unfortunate start. Based on the initial timeline, Kim shouldn't be expected to make his season debut until at least mid-May but could be out longer, potentially leaving Mauricio Dubon or Nacho Alvarez to fill in at shortstop for much of the first half.

Ive had the same finger tendon injury 5 times man.  Its such a ***** to fully recover from.  

[Jays24]

Report: Yankees won't engage in bidding war for Bellinger
https://thescore.com/mlb/news/3458825

As ridiculous as it sounds, the Yankees final offer is 5/160... any interest in beating that offer?  He would slot in pretty damn well in the 2 spot but you got no idea what version youre getting lol.  

[Abomination]

1 hour ago, Jays24 said:

Report: Yankees won't engage in bidding war for Bellinger
https://thescore.com/mlb/news/3458825

As ridiculous as it sounds, the Yankees final offer is 5/160... any interest in beating that offer?  He would slot in pretty damn well in the 2 spot but you got no idea what version youre getting lol.  

I really hate Bellinger's splits last year. It could be a case of there being little choice though. He did hit well at RC in a limited sample size, fwiw.

[Stangstag]

2 hours ago, Jays24 said:

Report: Yankees won't engage in bidding war for Bellinger
https://thescore.com/mlb/news/3458825

As ridiculous as it sounds, the Yankees final offer is 5/160... any interest in beating that offer?  He would slot in pretty damn well in the 2 spot but you got no idea what version youre getting lol.  

I think i’d do it. Helps solidify the OF for next year with CF being in question. Gives us a better bat to stick in the top half of the lineup.

His 2025 numbers were pretty similar to his career norms (minus his terrible 2021 and MVP 2019)

[Stangstag]

Do something like 7/200 with an opt-out after year 2. Probably come out ahead and get out of his decline years in that scenario lol.

[Brownie19]

31 minutes ago, Stangstag said:

Do something like 7/200 with an opt-out after year 2. Probably come out ahead and get out of his decline years in that scenario lol.

I'd rather go 3 years $1 10M with an opt out after year 2.

Belly certainly wasn't my 1st choice, but I do see the fit and the only reason he wasn't viewed as a really good fit is because just a reflection of how good Tucker and Bo are.  If they weren't FA's this year, I suspect Belly would have looked quite attractive.

I think it would be a surprise if he signed in Toronto, but I wouldn't be against adding him.  That would be an awesome way to rap up the offseason.

[L54]

I want no part of Bellinger. You are assuming all the risk for a guy who will probably never have another season as good as last year

Cant make a dumb move because you missed out on Bo and Tucker. I think most would agree Santander felt like a dumb move last year, sort of a desperation one. This would feel the same except Bellinger could really burn you 

[Stangstag]

15 minutes ago, L54 said:

I want no part of Bellinger. You are assuming all the risk for a guy who will probably never have another season as good as last year

Cant make a dumb move because you missed out on Bo and Tucker. I think most would agree Santander felt like a dumb move last year, sort of a desperation one. This would feel the same except Bellinger could really burn you 

10 years for Tucker is riskier than 6-7 for Bellinger. This is a literal former MVP we are talking about. I understand he doesn’t seem to be that player anymore, but I firmly believe his abysmal 2021 season was due to the shoulder injury.

And I don’t think Santander was a stupid move, he’s exactly the type of bat we needed last year. He can still be that power bat we need this year.

Bellinger would give us a CF for 2027 which we currently dont have. In this instance you probably let Varsho walk unless his market craters.

[glory]

7 hours ago, Stangstag said:

10 years for Tucker is riskier than 6-7 for Bellinger. This is a literal former MVP we are talking about. I understand he doesn’t seem to be that player anymore, but I firmly believe his abysmal 2021 season was due to the shoulder injury.

And I don’t think Santander was a stupid move, he’s exactly the type of bat we needed last year. He can still be that power bat we need this year.

Bellinger would give us a CF for 2027 which we currently dont have. In this instance you probably let Varsho walk unless his market craters.

Bellinger being able to play CF is really the only reason it might make sense. The Jays will need a CF after 2026. They have no one in the minors who looks like a realistic 2027 CF option, and there isn’t a CF FA option that looks appealing either. Not sure I’d want Belli for the contract that he is looking for as there is a lot of risk in his profile and performance. His skill set is exactly what the Jays like, though, and if a CF does emerge then moving Bellinger to LF/RF is always an option. You’d have to hope that he’s a 120 wRC+ or better bat for a few years. 
 

[Laika]

Bellinger might not be a starting quality defensive CF right now, let alone in 2027. I don't think him covering CF would be much of a consideration 

[Eat My Shatkins]

Not sure why we're too worried about adding an OFer right now.

There are no more Tuckers to chase after that I can see.

Three of the Jays bench guys can play the OF and so can their DH in a pinch. They also have Loperido and Clase on the 40 man, and let's not forget about Schreck who may arrive in 2026.

I'm hoping they can work out an extension with Varsho, but that might be tough since he's a Boras guy and the OF market next off season is razor thin.

[Jimcanuck]

Framber over Belly easy

[glory]

1 hour ago, Laika said:

Bellinger might not be a starting quality defensive CF right now, let alone in 2027. I don't think him covering CF would be much of a consideration 

If they don't think he can be a starting caliber CF for even a couple of years then it would be a hard pass. 

[Laika]

4 minutes ago, glory said:

If they don't think he can be a starting caliber CF for even a couple of years then it would be a hard pass. 

It would kind of be repeating the same mistake they made with Springer... playing a fringe CF in CF after 30. 

We saw how patrolling CF as he aged affected Springer negatively, for a long time. Offense down + injury risk up. Maybe even got in his head a bit in terms of what kind of player he should be, how he should train etc. 

[Laika]

At present, the Jays project like this:

LF 1.9 fWAR
CF 2.2 fWAR (you can add half a win though as they have Varsho with negative defense) 
RF 2.6 fWAR

The team could improve the LF and RF projections by just benching Santander, as well, since a Lukes/Schneider platoon projects better than him but FGDC has Santander getting 567 PA. 

Bellinger's projections range from 2.1 to 3.0 fWAR (OOPSY to FGDC).

Kyle Tucker has a composite projection of around 4.5 fWAR, about 2 full wins above Bellinger. 

You can sign Kyle Tucker and then bank that notable improvement and figure out the roster shakedown later. But signing Bellinger doesn't make sense - it is quite an inefficient use of resources. You are getting a 0.5 win upgrade MAYBE and then dealing with an awkward personnel issue where Santander is in a timeshare with someone and isn't even given a true chance to rebound, or you are benching Barger, or you are platooning Okamoto from day 1 so you can play Barger. 

The SP project like this: 

Cease 187 IP    3.8 WAR
Gausman 185 IP    2.8 WAR
Bieber 143 IP    2.3 WAR
Yesavage 137 IP    2.1 WAR
Ponce 129 IP    2.1 WAR
Berrios 111 IP    1.2 WAR

Does Framber Valdez' 3.7 WAR projection move the needle much more for Toronto? It could make sense. SP depth charts are much more fluid and there are obvious risks on this chart (Bieber, injury; Ponce, performance; Berrios, injury and performance). 

Yesavage had what, 139 total innings last year including the playoffs? They probably want to play it safe with him so we might not see much more than 150. Gausman at 35 has to be considered a huge injury risk even if he is the type to pitch through anything and pending free agency will incentivize him to do so. Berrios is kind of a complete write off for me, I would just expect slop innings since the dude's stuff is completely gone. 

[John_Havok]

14 hours ago, Jays24 said:

Ive had the same finger tendon injury 5 times man.  Its such a ***** to fully recover from.  

Have you tried going lefty for a month or so? Give the right side a break

[John_Havok]

10 hours ago, L54 said:

I want no part of Bellinger. You are assuming all the risk for a guy who will probably never have another season as good as last year

Cant make a dumb move because you missed out on Bo and Tucker. I think most would agree Santander felt like a dumb move last year, sort of a desperation one. This would feel the same except Bellinger could really burn you 

I dont think Santander was a dumb or desperation move at all. They got a guy who averaged 30+ HRs over the previous 3 years for CBT hit of 13.7m.  Injury killed him last year. s*** happens. 

[Jays24]

2 hours ago, John_Havok said:

I dont think Santander was a dumb or desperation move at all. They got a guy who averaged 30+ HRs over the previous 3 years for CBT hit of 13.7m.  Injury killed him last year. s*** happens. 

Santandar is on a very good deal for what we expected his production to be.  Lets hope he can stay healthy this year.

[Stangstag]

5 hours ago, Laika said:

Bellinger might not be a starting quality defensive CF right now, let alone in 2027. I don't think him covering CF would be much of a consideration 

If he can’t play CF then you don’t sign him. That’s really the only key factor here IMO. Im not sure how his defense grades out at the moment 

[Brownie19]

I get the argument that Belly may not be a sizable upgrade over current starters; however, I think people are undervaluing what he could bring.

Without another impact bat, I believe there's a lot more pressure put on Santander to rebound and for Okamoto to hit the ground running.  If either or both of those things don't happen, then it will add even more pressure on the secondary pieces like Kirk, Barger, Clement and even Springer to repeat.  We have to consider that a lot of things "went right" last year.  Is that because of Popkins is some messiah?  Some will say yes, and maybe it is to some extent, but my gut says we can't plan on that happening again.

Over the past 3 years, Belly's wRC+ has been 123 over 1781 PA's.  Just for comparison, over the same span, Bo's is 116.  Do I believe Bo will be a better hitter moving forward (based on age and ability)?  Yes I do, but Belly isn't some pushover and there's a reasonable probability he remains a 120-125 wRC+ bat, with solid defense and base running (his sprint speed hasn't dropped much at all over the past 4 years) for the next 3-4 years.  People have concerns that Belly's stats are inflated by Yankee Stadium - and yes they are to some extent, but he was still very good with the Cubs (his 2023 was better than his 2025 season).

Do I think the Jays are f*cked if they don't sign Belly or trade for another impact bat?  No, I do not.  I like our team Barry and we always have the option to add in-season.  But - do I think they should just dismiss Belly altogether - especially if they conclude he can't play a passable CF in 2026 or 2027?  I do not.  I'd make sure I know what Belly's cost is and would seriously consider if they could find a way to add him to this team.  Again, for me - if he's willing to take a short term deal like Bo - I'd be all over that.

Belly on a long term deal scares the crap out of me - but we need to adapt to the new MLB.  These short term, high AAV contracts remove a ton of the risk.  If the Jays and stomach paying the high AAV - it's a great way to add talent without that long term risk.

 

[Bob_Gratton]

I am no sold on Santander ``come back of the year`` because he's injury prone, and 44 HR is an anomaly for him, 25 HR will be more realistic if he stay fully healthy. So we will saw few other guys in LF (Straw, Okamoto, Schneider) but unless Barger struggle, Bellinger won't be a big upgrade in RF. The best way to improve lineup will be to trade for a good 2B or LF if Santander still no 100% healthy. Atkins can also sign Framber Valdez, even if we still have Bieber, anyway Shane will end up on injury list and he only agreed return coz he was injured. With Gausman, Cease, Valdez, Yesevage, Pounce, we will have the best SP group in American league. Add Donovan , make few trades to reduce payroll, then roster will be greatly improved.

[Bob_Gratton]

1 minute ago, Bob_Gratton said:

I am no sold on Santander ``come back of the year`` because he's injury prone, and 44 HR is an anomaly for him, 25 HR will be more realistic if he stay fully healthy. So we will saw few other guys in LF (Straw, Okamoto, Schneider) but unless Barger struggle, Bellinger won't be a big upgrade in RF. The best way to improve lineup will be to trade for a good 2B or LF if Santander still no 100% healthy. Atkins can also sign Framber Valdez, even if we still have Bieber, anyway Shane will end up on injury list and he only agreed return coz he was injured. With Gausman, Cease, Valdez, Yesevage, Pounce, we will have the best SP group in American league. Add Donovan , make few trades to reduce payroll, then roster will be greatly improved.

We can also enter in Peralta derby, but this will cost too much prospects and assets, and between empty the farm for Peralta or get Valdez in free agency, the choice is easy to make.

[L54]

Holy I woke up the Santander Fan Club last night by saying I don’t want Cody Bellinger 

[Stangstag]

10 minutes ago, L54 said:

Holy I woke up the Santander Fan Club last night by saying I don’t want Cody Bellinger 

Loll. To be fair you also took a shot at Santander saying he was a panic signing, hence the defense posts

[Spanky__99]

17 minutes ago, L54 said:

Holy I woke up the Santander Fan Club last night by saying I don’t want Cody Bellinger 

 

*People’s opinions 

A lot of people are making good points and explaining how they feel and there is a lot of differing view points. Some think Santander and co are a top 5 offense still, others are skeptical 

I prefer a board that has people active and posting, as opposed to 12 guys just gargling $/WAR calculations from steamer projections*

🙄

[L54]

2 hours ago, Stangstag said:

Loll. To be fair you also took a shot at Santander saying he was a panic signing, hence the defense posts

The fit is still weird and it’s a one dimensional guy but hopefully he pops 40 bombs 

[L54]

2 hours ago, Spanky__99 said:

 

*People’s opinions 

A lot of people are making good points and explaining how they feel and there is a lot of differing view points. Some think Santander and co are a top 5 offense still, others are skeptical 

I prefer a board that has people active and posting, as opposed to 12 guys just gargling $/WAR calculations from steamer projections*

🙄

Awww is little red upset that somebody said something mean to him