Blue Jays sign Cody Ponce to 3 year deal

[Eat My Shatkins]

1 hour ago, Joltin Joe said:

Has any other Korean star jumped to MLB and been successful?

Eric Lauer was in the KBO in 2024. He wasn't nearly as successful in the KBO as Ponce, joined the Jays in 2025 and had a 1.4 fWAR season for us. 

Ponce has a 2.2 fWAR projection.

[BTS]

1 hour ago, Joltin Joe said:

Has any other Korean star jumped to MLB and been successful?

Ryu

Seung-hwan Oh

Jung Ho Kang (until the DUIs)

Eric Thames hit after coming back 

Merrill Kelly

Miles Mikolas

Colby Lewis

[Pendleton]

8 minutes ago, BTS said:

Ryu

Seung-hwan Oh

Jung Ho Kang (until the DUIs)

Eric Thames hit after coming back 

Merrill Kelly

Miles Mikolas

Colby Lewis

Kelly is sort of quietly one of the better SP options remaining on the FA market. He's getting up there in age but was still a top 30ish SP in the bigs last year and had produced 3+ wins in three of the last four seasons (injured in 2024). 

[Eat My Shatkins]

Starters on the 40 man opening day 2025:

Gausman

Bassitt

Berrios

Sherzer

Francis

Lucas

Bloss

Macko

 

Jays starters on the 40 man right now:

Gausman

Cease

Bieber

Yesavage

Berrios

Ponce

Lauer

Bloss

Tiedemann

Francis

Macko

Estrada

Bastardo

[jmomcc]

19 minutes ago, Eat My Shatkins said:

Starters on the 40 man opening day 2025:

Gausman

Bassitt

Berrios

Sherzer

Francis

Lucas

Bloss

Macko

 

Jays starters on the 40 man right now:

Gausman

Cease

Bieber

Yesavage

Berrios

Ponce

Lauer

Bloss

Tiedemann

Francis

Macko

Estrada

Bastardo

I would guess bastardo is relief. Estrada is very tradeable/cuttable.

[Eat My Shatkins]

26 minutes ago, jmomcc said:

I would guess bastardo is relief. Estrada is very tradeable/cuttable.

Just pointing out the massive improvement in starting pitching depth from the start of the 2025 season.

To think they ended up winning 94 games and going to game 7 of the world series starting out with that weak of SP depth, just imagine what they might do in 2026 if they can get Bo back and/or sign Tucker now that they have improved the stable of staring pitching that much in 9 months.

And yes, it's going to spill over into the bullpen as well, where they started out the 2025 season with guys like Green, Swanson, Barnes and Dick Lovelady as bullpen options.

[Brownie19]

10 hours ago, jaysblue said:

Nah, not even close IMO. If the Jays also resign Bo or sign Tucker or trade for Marte + sign a top reliever like Diaz then sure. 

Still think the 2005/2006 offseason was up there: signing Burnett, Ryan, Bengie, and trading for Glaus/Overbay. Considering the Jays prior to that didn't spend any money and never were real big FA players. Also, even though a lot of the moves never worked out, it was exciting trading for Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, Josh Johnson and RA Dickey prior to the 2013 season. The offseason prior to 2015 trading for JD and signing Martin was exciting as well. 

The offseason before 2022 was exciting as well: trading for Chapman and signing Gausman. 

I certainly remember that 2005/06 offseason.  I made the effort to go to the dome on opening day and 50,000 people were screaming "we want BJs".  It was definitely an exciting offseason - primarily because they Jays hadn't been very aggressive in previous years.

I also remember pulling over on the side of the road when the Marlins deal was made.  I was in shock.

But - I think you're understating the excitement that comes from building after a simply remarkable season.  The 2005 and 2012 were not good years.  The was no hype or expectation for the team.  Those signings/trades simply meant we might not stink the next year, whereas these signings increase the likelihood we can make another run at the WS title.  

It's like we're in the 2015-16 offseason again - only this time, we're adding baby.

[Orgfiller]

3 hours ago, BTS said:

Ryu

Seung-hwan Oh

Jung Ho Kang (until the DUIs)

Eric Thames hit after coming back 

Merrill Kelly

Miles Mikolas

Colby Lewis

Ha-Seong Kim

Jung Hoo Le

both guys who have had success despite some injuries

Erick Fedde had a 3.4 WAR season after coming back from the KBO

[Laika]

I am not sure there is a usable KBO comp for Ponce

Kelly and Fedde and Ryu and Chris Flexen were all command dudes who came over. Kelly didn't even dominate in the KBO. Fedde did but with a K-BB% about 6 points under Ponce's 2025. I mean Ryu when he first started in MLB would have had good stuff of course, but not an arsenal like Ponce at all. 

Not sure we have seen a guy just out-STUFF the KBO and then try to come over. At least not a starter. 

[Olerud363.354]

1 hour ago, Brownie19 said:

But - I think you're understating the excitement that comes from building after a simply remarkable season.  The 2005 and 2012 were not good years. 

Both those years they were trying to win and there was tonne's of excitement.   Won 80 in 2005 and the expectation was to win 95 and contend in 2006.  And they should have.  

The 2006 Blue Jays were missing 70-90 runs.  

What is the greatest OPS of all Blue Jays teams?  2006 .811

They scored a pedestrian (for 2006) 800 runs and should have had 900.  They had better statistics then the 2015 team but 90 less runs.  

90 runs.  Gone.  Into the ether.  The fates are cruel.  This is why I think I'm not as torn up over game 7 2025 World Series as others.  The f***ing fates have lots of ways to screw you.  Some late, some random, some mysterious.  

90 f***ing missing runs.  Gone because the fates f***ed us for 162 games in weird mysterious ways.  

The 2013 team also was expected to win, and it became apparent they wouldn't 15 games in.  That sucked too.  You had tickets for a mid June game and were excited to see Dickey, Johnson, the track team (Jose Reyes and friends), Bautista and EE going for 80+ homeruns.... and it was gone April 15th and had to suffer through John Farrell getting the golden season instead. 

[sliderguy35]

i know there's a lot of excitement from the twitter bros about ponce, but think i'm lower on him than most. yes, the average fastball velo is up to 95.5 MPH (which is good!) but when you look under the hood at the release height / shape data, it's a lot less impressive of a pitch.

the induced vertical break on his fastball in the KBO was 17 inches which is above the ML average (15.8 inches for a right handed starting pitcher). however the ball in the KBO (as well as NPB & below AAA) is slightly different from the ball that is used in MLB, which often inflates pitch shape. realistically, when using a MLB ball, he'll probably be right around league average

the kicker of it all is his release height. because ponce is a big guy with mediocre extension, he throws from a 6.3 ft release height which is well above the ML average (5.8 ft). 4 seamers with a flatter approach angles perform the best, but an above average release height with mediocre raw movement means that the approach angle on the fastball isn't what you want. 

usually, high release point guys who's fastballs perform well usually do so through outlier horizontal movement, outlier velocity, or a combination of the 2 (think dylan cease or cole ragans). ponce's velocity is up, but it's only about 1 mph harder than the average right handed starting pitcher, compared to right handed guys with similar release heights like dylan cease or robert suarez who are living in the upper 90s. it's just not a pitch that a starter would be able to throw 40% of the time and expect good results against ML hitters.

that's not to say i'm completely out on him, i think the new changeup is going to be a legitimate ++ pitch. averaging only 2 inches of vertical break from that high of a release point at 88 MPH is going to set stuff models on fire. if he's able to raise his velocity in relief and consistently live in the 96-98 mph range with his fastball combined with that changeup, he's going to be a pretty electric reliever (the cutter & curveball are both pretty mediocre imo).

i just don't see him as a starter unless they:

• drastically increase the sinker usage to the point where both it and the 4 seam fastball are hovering in the 20-25% range
• get to close to 30% changeup usage (really depthy change-ups are platoon neutral)
• ditch the cutter and bring back his old gyro slider (another pitch that would play really well from a high release point, think 2023 kevin ginkel)

and i don't have a ton of faith in the organization to make big sweeping changes to a guy's arsenal like that.

ultimately i do like the deal because of the roster flexibility / injury protection it provides. without any changes, he's probably giving you what berrios would over 130-140 innings for $9M less & if you can't find a berrios trade, he could be a legitimate bullpen guy. i just think people need to pump the brakes on him being anything better than a 5th starter unless they make some changes.

[thatoneguy]

20 minutes ago, sliderguy35 said:

i know there's a lot of excitement from the twitter bros about ponce, but think i'm lower on him than most. yes, the average fastball velo is up to 95.5 MPH (which is good!) but when you look under the hood at the release height / shape data, it's a lot less impressive of a pitch.

the induced vertical break on his fastball in the KBO was 17 inches which is above the ML average (15.8 inches for a right handed starting pitcher). however the ball in the KBO (as well as NPB & below AAA) is slightly different from the ball that is used in MLB, which often inflates pitch shape. realistically, when using a MLB ball, he'll probably be right around league average

the kicker of it all is his release height. because ponce is a big guy with mediocre extension, he throws from a 6.3 ft release height which is well above the ML average (5.8 ft). 4 seamers with a flatter approach angles perform the best, but an above average release height with mediocre raw movement means that the approach angle on the fastball isn't what you want. 

usually, high release point guys who's fastballs perform well usually do so through outlier horizontal movement, outlier velocity, or a combination of the 2 (think dylan cease or cole ragans). ponce's velocity is up, but it's only about 1 mph harder than the average right handed starting pitcher, compared to right handed guys with similar release heights like dylan cease or robert suarez who are living in the upper 90s. it's just not a pitch that a starter would be able to throw 40% of the time and expect good results against ML hitters.

that's not to say i'm completely out on him, i think the new changeup is going to be a legitimate ++ pitch. averaging only 2 inches of vertical break from that high of a release point at 88 MPH is going to set stuff models on fire. if he's able to raise his velocity in relief and consistently live in the 96-98 mph range with his fastball combined with that changeup, he's going to be a pretty electric reliever (the cutter & curveball are both pretty mediocre imo).

i just don't see him as a starter unless they:

• drastically increase the sinker usage to the point where both it and the 4 seam fastball are hovering in the 20-25% range
• get to close to 30% changeup usage (really depthy change-ups are platoon neutral)
• ditch the cutter and bring back his old gyro slider (another pitch that would play really well from a high release point, think 2023 kevin ginkel)

and i don't have a ton of faith in the organization to make big sweeping changes to a guy's arsenal like that.

ultimately i do like the deal because of the roster flexibility / injury protection it provides. without any changes, he's probably giving you what berrios would over 130-140 innings for $9M less & if you can't find a berrios trade, he could be a legitimate bullpen guy. i just think people need to pump the brakes on him being anything better than a 5th starter unless they make some changes.

Are you a pitching coach? Because you should be.

[Brownie19]

@sliderguy35 - you're telling me the baseball used at AA and below is different than the ball used at AAA and the ML level?  Why on earth would they do that?  Also

 

[Orgfiller]

14 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

@sliderguy35 - you're telling me the baseball used at AA and below is different than the ball used at AAA and the ML level?  Why on earth would they do that?  Also

 

I know the league has tested pre-tacked baseballs in lower levels, along with additional ABS testing and whatnot. I remember when evaluating certain guys in AA in the past two(?) seasons you had to take some results with a grain of salt because of the differences in gameplay as a result of these tested changes.

[Vancouverite]

58 minutes ago, sliderguy35 said:

i know there's a lot of excitement from the twitter bros about ponce, but think i'm lower on him than most. yes, the average fastball velo is up to 95.5 MPH (which is good!) but when you look under the hood at the release height / shape data, it's a lot less impressive of a pitch.

the induced vertical break on his fastball in the KBO was 17 inches which is above the ML average (15.8 inches for a right handed starting pitcher). however the ball in the KBO (as well as NPB & below AAA) is slightly different from the ball that is used in MLB, which often inflates pitch shape. realistically, when using a MLB ball, he'll probably be right around league average

the kicker of it all is his release height. because ponce is a big guy with mediocre extension, he throws from a 6.3 ft release height which is well above the ML average (5.8 ft). 4 seamers with a flatter approach angles perform the best, but an above average release height with mediocre raw movement means that the approach angle on the fastball isn't what you want. 

usually, high release point guys who's fastballs perform well usually do so through outlier horizontal movement, outlier velocity, or a combination of the 2 (think dylan cease or cole ragans). ponce's velocity is up, but it's only about 1 mph harder than the average right handed starting pitcher, compared to right handed guys with similar release heights like dylan cease or robert suarez who are living in the upper 90s. it's just not a pitch that a starter would be able to throw 40% of the time and expect good results against ML hitters.

that's not to say i'm completely out on him, i think the new changeup is going to be a legitimate ++ pitch. averaging only 2 inches of vertical break from that high of a release point at 88 MPH is going to set stuff models on fire. if he's able to raise his velocity in relief and consistently live in the 96-98 mph range with his fastball combined with that changeup, he's going to be a pretty electric reliever (the cutter & curveball are both pretty mediocre imo).

i just don't see him as a starter unless they:

• drastically increase the sinker usage to the point where both it and the 4 seam fastball are hovering in the 20-25% range
• get to close to 30% changeup usage (really depthy change-ups are platoon neutral)
• ditch the cutter and bring back his old gyro slider (another pitch that would play really well from a high release point, think 2023 kevin ginkel)

and i don't have a ton of faith in the organization to make big sweeping changes to a guy's arsenal like that.

ultimately i do like the deal because of the roster flexibility / injury protection it provides. without any changes, he's probably giving you what berrios would over 130-140 innings for $9M less & if you can't find a berrios trade, he could be a legitimate bullpen guy. i just think people need to pump the brakes on him being anything better than a 5th starter unless they make some changes.

Either you really know your s*** and you've worked in baseball/scouting in some sort of capacity, or your full of s***.

Dont mean that in a bad way just that how did you even come up with this? Im honestly curious and intrigued to learn about your background 

[Brownie19]

20 minutes ago, Orgfiller said:

I know the league has tested pre-tacked baseballs in lower levels, along with additional ABS testing and whatnot. I remember when evaluating certain guys in AA in the past two(?) seasons you had to take some results with a grain of salt because of the differences in gameplay as a result of these tested changes.

I read it as the ball size is slightly different - like it is in the KBO and NPB.  I guess pre-tacked baseball could also change the pitch shape?

Either way - I really respect sliderguy's opinion, so this is a wet blanket on our excitement.

 

[Olerud363.354]

1 hour ago, sliderguy35 said:

i just think people need to pump the brakes on him being anything better than a 5th starter unless they make some changes.

I am curious why you think they wouldn't make these changes?  I am a complete outsider but I assume they are tracking performance on every pitch and adjusting from start to start.  So if the data says make some changes I would hope they would. 

Seems like in some of your other posts you are hinting that the Jays have some limitations on the coaching side.   The game is so data intensive these days, and teams are using AI now to make best use of data, so if there is something that would help, and it is public enough that people are discussing it on message boards... well the team would have to know about it, and it would only be human stubbornness that would prevent good strategies from being used. 

[Joltin Joe]

8 hours ago, Eat My Shatkins said:

Eric Lauer was in the KBO in 2024. He wasn't nearly as successful in the KBO as Ponce, joined the Jays in 2025 and had a 1.4 fWAR season for us. 

Ponce has a 2.2 fWAR projection.

Lauer probably led to Ponce signing

[Joltin Joe]

8 hours ago, Eat My Shatkins said:

Eric Lauer was in the KBO in 2024. He wasn't nearly as successful in the KBO as Ponce, joined the Jays in 2025 and had a 1.4 fWAR season for us. 

Ponce has a 2.2 fWAR projection.

Lauer probably led to Ponce signing

[Stangstag]

11 minutes ago, Joltin Joe said:

Lauer probably led to Ponce signing

I actually think Ryu did it, he was teammates with Ponce last year in Korea

[sliderguy35]

1 hour ago, Olerud363.354 said:

I am curious why you think they wouldn't make these changes?  I am a complete outsider but I assume they are tracking performance on every pitch and adjusting from start to start.  So if the data says make some changes I would hope they would. 

Seems like in some of your other posts you are hinting that the Jays have some limitations on the coaching side.   The game is so data intensive these days, and teams are using AI now to make best use of data, so if there is something that would help, and it is public enough that people are discussing it on message boards... well the team would have to know about it, and it would only be human stubbornness that would prevent good strategies from being used. 

knowing about / analyzing what changes should be made based on publicly available information vs. the process of actually taking action to communicate to the players and make these changes are completely different. 

i can tell you based on what we know of approach angles that a sinker and a slider with more depth would be better for ponce, but i wouldn't know what the correct seam orientations, grip pressure, mental cues, etc that are unique to each player would be needed to actually teach someone how to throw effective ML versions those pitches. not to mention whether the guy would feel comfortable throwing them for strikes, or how difficult it would be to communicate this to a guy who just had one of the best pitching seasons of all time in the KBO & get him to completely buy in on these changes. 

the teams that are good at making these kinds of arsenal changes for guys have an organizational culture that not only empowers players to have an understanding of what changes are most effective from a data perspective, but also coaching staffs with the ability to easily teach these changes to guys and communicate well enough to get them to buy in. i'm sure that any analyst in the blue jays org that actually looked at the numbers probably came to the same conclusion that i did, but there's so much more to the process than just the data side. 

1 hour ago, Brownie19 said:

I read it as the ball size is slightly different - like it is in the KBO and NPB.  I guess pre-tacked baseball could also change the pitch shape?

Either way - I really respect sliderguy's opinion, so this is a wet blanket on our excitement.

iirc in the minor leagues its because the seams are raised and the ball is a bit tackier naturally. there's a really good lance brozdowski video about this that i'll edit into this post later

[Spanky__99]

22 minutes ago, Stangstag said:

I actually think Ryu did it, he was teammates with Ponce last year in Korea

Actually, it's Ryu's former interpreter Bryan Lee, he's working in our international scouting department in Korea, he's been a part of the Lauer/Moon and now Ponce signings.

[Spanky__99]

18 minutes ago, sliderguy35 said:

there's a really good lance brozdowski video about this that i'll edit into this post later

I was checking out his substack earlier, this guy is fascinating.

[Laika]

From his blog... 

Hey Lance. Who would you rough comp be for Ponce given his arsenal/traits/projected command etc?

 

Lance Brozdowski

 

Oddly tough to find a comp for him that matches what we think the 4S might regress to with the MLB ball. It lines up with some relievers like Hunter Gaddis and Julian Merryweather. Kick-change comp is roughly similar to Clay Holmes with less arm-side (again, just we few high-release guys throwing kick-ch with sub 10” arm-side). Maybe Taj Bradley is kind of an interesting comp? Taj just carries his 4S much better, but similar CH-first approach, trying to figure out breaker shape.

I think if the Blue Jays got a 4-4.20 ERA over 130ish innings they’d be pretty happy. Slightly better than Nick Martinez / Michael Lorenzen types (who are both CH to righty guys pretty heavily).

 

[Laika]

3/$30m is just SP5 or "good reliever" money anyway so he doesn't need to do much to be worth it 

[Brownie19]

3 minutes ago, Laika said:

3/$30m is just SP5 or "good reliever" money anyway so he doesn't need to do much to be worth it 

That's true - but I have to think they believe they can unlock more value out of him.  Otherwise - why be so aggressive to sign him?

[Laika]

16 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

That's true - but I have to think they believe they can unlock more value out of him.  Otherwise - why be so aggressive to sign him?

Of course

By his Fangraphs projection alone he's worth 2.3, 1.8, 1.3 WAR so about $23M, $18M and $13M or $54M in the next three years. You take some of that off for the league translation risk on that projection but it is easy to see the potential value. 

tbh with that velo and changeup the potential for a 3 win pitcher is pretty clear and obvious 

[Vancouverite]

On 12/2/2025 at 7:46 PM, DonJays said:

Guasmen, cease and Bieber should comfortably be a very good top 3. Lots of upside in the 4/5 spots w Trey and Ponce and then you have lauer, Beerios and Francis. I don’t consider this high risk at all. A very high floor and a high ceiling compared to almost any other rotation. 

You most likely are right. Im just trying to temper my expectation. Generally the teams with the "best anything" tag in the offseason doesn't end materializing, unless its defense. That's the beauty of baseball its so unpredictable.

I'll feel better about it in May once Gausman shows no drop in velocity or stuff entering his age 35 season and Bieber showing he's healthy 

That's really my concern that if Biebs and Gausman are not on it next year, than we'd have to rely heavily on 2 guys (Ponce and Yesavage) that haven't proven themselves over a course of a full season in the MLB which is a grind and takes a toll on pitchers

[jmomcc]

On 12/3/2025 at 12:12 PM, sliderguy35 said:

knowing about / analyzing what changes should be made based on publicly available information vs. the process of actually taking action to communicate to the players and make these changes are completely different. 

i can tell you based on what we know of approach angles that a sinker and a slider with more depth would be better for ponce, but i wouldn't know what the correct seam orientations, grip pressure, mental cues, etc that are unique to each player would be needed to actually teach someone how to throw effective ML versions those pitches. not to mention whether the guy would feel comfortable throwing them for strikes, or how difficult it would be to communicate this to a guy who just had one of the best pitching seasons of all time in the KBO & get him to completely buy in on these changes. 

the teams that are good at making these kinds of arsenal changes for guys have an organizational culture that not only empowers players to have an understanding of what changes are most effective from a data perspective, but also coaching staffs with the ability to easily teach these changes to guys and communicate well enough to get them to buy in. i'm sure that any analyst in the blue jays org that actually looked at the numbers probably came to the same conclusion that i did, but there's so much more to the process than just the data side. 

iirc in the minor leagues its because the seams are raised and the ball is a bit tackier naturally. there's a really good lance brozdowski video about this that i'll edit into this post later

Could we overhaul the minor league side and keep pete walker as a finisher. So, change prospects at least if not major league signings? 
 

No matter how much we spend we aren't going to be dodgers north unless we can develop like them. 

 

[Spanky__99]

2 hours ago, jmomcc said:

Could we overhaul the minor league side and keep pete walker as a finisher. So, change prospects at least if not major league signings? 
 

No matter how much we spend we aren't going to be dodgers north unless we can develop like them. 

 

*sighs*