2025 Trade Deadline

[Terminator]

[Terminator]

I thought this one was pretty interesting from Passan.

[Laika]

Nimalla has been so bad the last month that maybe they do dump him for a boring guy 

[Laika]

Boob Itch is my dude though 

[Terminator]

2 minutes ago, Laika said:

Nimalla has been so bad the last month that maybe they do dump him for a boring guy 

I would probably prefer to move him over Yeasavage.

Nimmala has got a looooong way to go and there are a bunch of outcomes from him where we don't regret trading him.

Keller is signed through 2028 and Bednar through 2026.

[Pendleton]

Edward Cabrera 

[jaysblue]

21 minutes ago, Terminator said:

Is Ricardo Rincon available?

[glory]

I don’t mind trading Nimmala but not for Mitch Keller.

[Terminator]

Nimmala is overrated on this board. He's a 50 FV and ranked around #50 overall on Top 100 lists.

I'm not suggesting we give him away but everyone might want to get used to the idea that he could very well be traded this deadline for less than what you think.

Mitch Keller is on pace for 3.5 WAR this year and has 3 more years of control after this. Trading Nimmala for him would be a no brainer IMO.

[Laika]

I don't agree 

A 50 FV prospect is worth something like $25M to $30M in NPV 

Keller is owed 17, 18, 21 over the next 3 years 

His 2026 and 2027 ZiPS are for 2.0 and 1.7 WAR; assume 1.4 for 2028

That's 5.1 WAR across 3 years for $56M which is about $11M per win 

I don't think he's worth $30M in surplus value on that contract. His contract might actually be a fair free agent deal right now. Consider what guys like Kikuchi and Pivetta and Flaherty just got. 

He's worth a premium that is equal to whatever it is worth this year to help with a playoff race + his surplus value remaining in 2025. 

I'm not willing to burn Nimmala for this. I would burn certain other top 10 Jays prospects but probably not a top 100 mlb type. 

I mean he's a perfectly cromulent replacement for Bassitt for 2026 on but that's not the priority here at the deadline. He doesn't move the "win the World Series" needle a whole lot does he? This is a RHP with a 95 Stuff+. 

 

[Laika]

I mean, you do a trade like that if you are pretty sure the prospect sucks and you want to get bail on him. 

Toronto has done this before though. 

[RobinThicc]

Nimmala++ for a top of the rotation arm.

[John_Havok]

37 minutes ago, RobinThicc said:

Nimmala++ for a top of the rotation arm.

Depending on the team they might want Yesavage ++

And it all depends if the ace is a rental or not. Rental acquisition costs are not what they used to be

[Terminator]

4 hours ago, Laika said:

I don't agree 

A 50 FV prospect is worth something like $25M to $30M in NPV 

Keller is owed 17, 18, 21 over the next 3 years 

His 2026 and 2027 ZiPS are for 2.0 and 1.7 WAR; assume 1.4 for 2028

That's 5.1 WAR across 3 years for $56M which is about $11M per win 

I don't think he's worth $30M in surplus value on that contract. His contract might actually be a fair free agent deal right now. Consider what guys like Kikuchi and Pivetta and Flaherty just got. 

He's worth a premium that is equal to whatever it is worth this year to help with a playoff race + his surplus value remaining in 2025. 

I'm not willing to burn Nimmala for this. I would burn certain other top 10 Jays prospects but probably not a top 100 mlb type. 

I mean he's a perfectly cromulent replacement for Bassitt for 2026 on but that's not the priority here at the deadline. He doesn't move the "win the World Series" needle a whole lot does he? This is a RHP with a 95 Stuff+. 

 

Kikuchi and Flaherty didn’t get big free-agent deals, but both returned 50 FV prospects plus extras at last year’s deadline. Same with Jason Adam, who’s a decent comp for Bednar.

Just shows how steep the deadline premium is. Teams gave up 50/45 FV packages for rentals who then signed one-year deals in free agency.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ranking-the-prospects-traded-at-the-2024-deadline/

I’m also higher on Keller than ZiPS 2026/2027, which I don’t think are updated yet. He’s putting up 3.2, 2.2, and ~3.6 WAR from 2023–2025.

Three years, $56M for ages 30–32 is a solid deal but I suppose it's not great given where prices have been.

And perhaps Kikuchi and Flaherty were perceived to be #2/3-like starters in the playoffs whereas Keller is more #3/4? But still, I think his contract carries a little bit of value to make it close.

So you guys are probably right in that Keller would not be worth Nimmala on his own, but toss in 1.5 years of Bednar and I’m definitely in.

[Angrioter]

Hector Gomez 

SOURCE: The #BlueJays have interest in Edward Cabrera and Jacob DeGrom if he becomes available

[John_Havok]

24 minutes ago, Angrioter said:

Hector Gomez 

SOURCE: The #BlueJays have interest in Edward Cabrera and Jacob DeGrom if he becomes available

In other news, water is wet. 

Give us some real dirt !

[glory]

17 hours ago, Laika said:

I don't agree 

A 50 FV prospect is worth something like $25M to $30M in NPV 

Keller is owed 17, 18, 21 over the next 3 years 

His 2026 and 2027 ZiPS are for 2.0 and 1.7 WAR; assume 1.4 for 2028

That's 5.1 WAR across 3 years for $56M which is about $11M per win 

I don't think he's worth $30M in surplus value on that contract. His contract might actually be a fair free agent deal right now. Consider what guys like Kikuchi and Pivetta and Flaherty just got. 

He's worth a premium that is equal to whatever it is worth this year to help with a playoff race + his surplus value remaining in 2025. 

I'm not willing to burn Nimmala for this. I would burn certain other top 10 Jays prospects but probably not a top 100 mlb type. 

I mean he's a perfectly cromulent replacement for Bassitt for 2026 on but that's not the priority here at the deadline. He doesn't move the "win the World Series" needle a whole lot does he? This is a RHP with a 95 Stuff+. 

 

Yeah I don't mind Keller as a 2026-28 rotation option, or even a 2025 rotation option considering Scherzer's spotty health, but if you're trading Nimmala, then it should be for someone with higher upside and/or more cost friendliness. As mentioned you wouldn't be trading for an arb eligible player or someone on a team friendly deal, you'd be taking on what is essentially a FA level contract. Surplus value potential simply isn't there, and I'm not sure it raises the upside of the 2025 team that much since he's very similar to the existing top 4 in the rotation. You could certainly rationalize Nimmala for Keller, especially since Nimmala could conceivably become a bust, but I would hope they aim a bit higher. Or trade other/lesser prospects for Keller.

[John_Havok]

17 hours ago, Laika said:

I don't agree 

A 50 FV prospect is worth something like $25M to $30M in NPV 

Keller is owed 17, 18, 21 over the next 3 years 

His 2026 and 2027 ZiPS are for 2.0 and 1.7 WAR; assume 1.4 for 2028

That's 5.1 WAR across 3 years for $56M which is about $11M per win 

I don't think he's worth $30M in surplus value on that contract. His contract might actually be a fair free agent deal right now. Consider what guys like Kikuchi and Pivetta and Flaherty just got. 

He's worth a premium that is equal to whatever it is worth this year to help with a playoff race + his surplus value remaining in 2025. 

I'm not willing to burn Nimmala for this. I would burn certain other top 10 Jays prospects but probably not a top 100 mlb type. 

I mean he's a perfectly cromulent replacement for Bassitt for 2026 on but that's not the priority here at the deadline. He doesn't move the "win the World Series" needle a whole lot does he? This is a RHP with a 95 Stuff+. 

 

Evaluating the trade in a vacuum...sure.

Counterpoint is where the Jays are on the win curve and those extra few win increases mean a lot more. 

The thing is, why give up solid assets now for a starter that doesnt really nove the needle this season, and is only a replacement for Bassitt for the next few? Figure that out in the offseason. Right now the Jays need top end rotation leader that shoves.

Bedard? Yes f***in' please. 

[Brownie19]

I say we cash in on the helium Khal Stephen has right now.

Stephen, Roden and Schreck should draw interest around the league.

[Laika]

30 minutes ago, John_Havok said:

Evaluating the trade in a vacuum...sure.

Counterpoint is where the Jays are on the win curve and those extra few win increases mean a lot more. 

The thing is, why give up solid assets now for a starter that doesnt really nove the needle this season, and is only a replacement for Bassitt for the next few? Figure that out in the offseason. Right now the Jays need top end rotation leader that shoves.

Bedard? Yes f***in' please. 

Erik Bedard?

His Stuff+ is way down recently. I heard he was throwing 76. 

[Stangstag]

On 7/8/2025 at 6:58 PM, Laika said:

Nimalla has been so bad the last month that maybe they do dump him for a boring guy 

Prospects are fickle, we need to take advantage of this shot at a deep postseason run this year 

[Stangstag]

19 hours ago, Terminator said:

Nimmala is overrated on this board. He's a 50 FV and ranked around #50 overall on Top 100 lists.

I'm not suggesting we give him away but everyone might want to get used to the idea that he could very well be traded this deadline for less than what you think.

Mitch Keller is on pace for 3.5 WAR this year and has 3 more years of control after this. Trading Nimmala for him would be a no brainer IMO.

Keller seems like exactly the type of guy this FO would be after. Can also see Alcantara too, though he’s not pitching very well so far

[Stangstag]

14 hours ago, Angrioter said:

Hector Gomez 

SOURCE: The #BlueJays have interest in Edward Cabrera and Jacob DeGrom if he becomes available

No shot the Jays go after Degrom IMO, way too high risk with multiple years left.

[jaysblue]

1 minute ago, Stangstag said:

No shot the Jays go after Degrom IMO, way too high risk with multiple years left.

deGrom actually makes a huge difference this season if he's added to the rotation. Just got to pray he stays healthy lol. 

If the Jays add deGrom, they instantly become World Series contenders IMO. It would feel really good to have deGrom start two games in a DS or CS series. 

[jaysblue]

Ross Atkins at the trade deadline:

[Terminator]

What kind of contract would DeGrom sign in the offseason? 

[jaysblue]

6 minutes ago, Terminator said:

What kind of contract would DeGrom sign in the offseason? 

You would think based off the season he's had thus far, he could easily get $100M over 3 years if he were a FA. Maybe even more on a shorter term deal. 

So $37M AAV for him over the next three seasons isn't that bad. Jays are one the few teams who can take on that kind of salary. 

Other notes:

• 2028 Club Option: $20M (contains no buyout)
  625 Innings Pitched or 1 Top 5 Cy Young: $30M
  725 Innings Pitched or 3 Top 5 Cy Youngs: $37M
• 2028 Becomes a $37M Player Option if:
  160+ IP + Top 5 Cy Young + Healthy in 2027

[Stangstag]

28 minutes ago, jaysblue said:

deGrom actually makes a huge difference this season if he's added to the rotation. Just got to pray he stays healthy lol. 

If the Jays add deGrom, they instantly become World Series contenders IMO. It would feel really good to have deGrom start two games in a DS or CS series. 

Degrom + Scherzer in the same rotation is potentially catastrophic lol

[Stangstag]

Degrom would be disgusting to have in a playoff rotation, I just don’t trust his arm to stay healthy at all

[Brownie19]

4 minutes ago, Stangstag said:

Degrom would be disgusting to have in a playoff rotation, I just don’t trust his arm to stay healthy at all

Nor should you, or anyone else.  He's the ultimate wildcard.