Article: So That’s Why the Blue Jays Didn’t Extend Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

[Barrelsandbombs]

2 minutes ago, John_Havok said:

We already know Vlad is dumb. If the leak is seen as dumb, chances are it came from Vlad. 

To me it doesn't really matter where the leak came from, the fact is Vlad was asking for a premium FA price tag that vastly overvalues his contributions on the field, when he wasn't a free agent and there was only 1 bidder. If he has a monster season and ends up getting 500m in FA, so be it, there's no reason to hand it to him prior to that though. 

I don't see the leak as dumb, I actually think it was a smart leak from the team side.

[Brownie19]

57 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Given the numbers, I also think this came from the organization. It makes the most sense.

I'm not following this logic (not just yours, but others too).

We started with the David Ortiz comment on $585M, then we heard Vlad's camp say their "counter" didn't reach $600M, which suggested his initial offer did and made the Ortiz $585M number seem legit.

Then we heard the Jays offered about $500M with deferrals and the present day value was between $400M and $450M.  I think most intelligent fans would say "Vlad's asking for way too much and the Jays offer was quite reasonable".

After all of this, there's a new leak that Vlad's "real" number is $500M without deferrals.  

If we think the team leaked this, then are we suggesting Vlad has come back to the team, post "deadline" and told them that $500M is his number?  Or, perhaps, do we think the Ortiz # was too high and Vlad's actual counter offer to the Jays was $500M?

We think the team wants to leak this to show fans the 2 sides aren't far apart?  Doesn't this also potentially paint a picture that the Jays FO was too cheap to add like $5M AAV to get the deal done?  Couldn't it also break some form of mutual trust/respect with Vlad?  I guess maybe it could help with his marketability this year - as I could see fans turning on him if he's viewed as a greedy, delusional c*nt.

It seems more likely to me that Vlad's camp leaked it to show he truly wants to stay in Toronto and that he's willing to negotiate a compromise.  The timing just seems odd.  Like he didn't think the Jays would hold their ground and let the deadline pass without a deal or something and now he wants to negotiate further...

Am I missing something?

We'll probably never really know what's correct.  It's a pretty bizarre situation. 

 

 

[Delete_My_Account_Thanks]

Bottom line is Shatkins has botched the Vlad and Bo situation for years now.

 

All of the blame lays on them.  Can't blame the player for having a high asking price when they walk him straight to free agency

[Spanky99]

19 hours ago, Terminator said:

https://nypost.com/2025/03/11/sports/blue-jays-contract-offer-to-vladimir-guerrero-jr-revealed/

Vlad turned down 500 mil (400-450 present day value).

He's absolutely nuts if true. It's going to be hard for him to get much more than that, but there are plenty of scenarios where he gets hundreds of millions less.

Wow.

[Brownie19]

32 minutes ago, Delete_My_Account_Thanks said:

Bottom line is Shatkins has botched the Vlad and Bo situation for years now.

 

All of the blame lays on them.  Can't blame the player for having a high asking price when they walk him straight to free agency

I know you are and nothing anyone says will change your mind, but you shouldn't be so firm in this position.

[Vancouverite]

36 minutes ago, Delete_My_Account_Thanks said:

Bottom line is Shatkins has botched the Vlad and Bo situation for years now.

 

All of the blame lays on them.  Can't blame the player for having a high asking price when they walk him straight to free agency

If Vlad wants 500M+ than they sure didn't botch anything

let someone else pay for a first baseman

[Vancouverite]

23 minutes ago, Spanky99 said:

Wow.

Jays should trade him if they can get some young MLB ready guys. 

He thinks way too high of himself. he'll also sign a new contract that most likely nose-dive his performance and by age 30 he'll be Prince Fielder

[Eat My Shatkins]

Please, for the love of christ, delete his account. Thanks

[rydermike]

Am I missing something. Vlad wanted 500M present value. Wouldn't a 585/15 yr no deferral deal be something like 500 present value? Because even thought there's no deffered money, money is still in later years still have a lower present value. So couldn't the various ideas floating around (ie Ortiz's numbers) all be in agreement? 

[Brownie19]

17 minutes ago, rydermike said:

Am I missing something. Vlad wanted 500M present value. Wouldn't a 585/15 yr no deferral deal be something like 500 present value? Because even thought there's no deffered money, money is still in later years still have a lower present value. So couldn't the various ideas floating around (ie Ortiz's numbers) all be in agreement? 

I think the missing info is whether the $585M Ortiz number included deferrals or not.  I think Ortiz said Vlad was worth the $585M and Vlad's said he wants present day value money, so I think when Vlad says his counter offer didn't reach $600M and you see Ortiz suggest $585M, you assume that's present day value.

[Vancouverite]

54 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

I think the missing info is whether the $585M Ortiz number included deferrals or not.  I think Ortiz said Vlad was worth the $585M and Vlad's said he wants present day value money, so I think when Vlad says his counter offer didn't reach $600M and you see Ortiz suggest $585M, you assume that's present day value.

but the value of money in PV all depends on what you think inflation is going to be over the span of the payments.

if he wants 500M PV to be paid out over 15 years that would mean 615M at 3% interest/inflation.

if there's more deferrals that has this paid out over 20 or 25 years than it'll be even more.

regardless, 500M Present Value is INSANE! he's a no-baserunning, no D, out of-shape first baseman for crying out loud.

you're better off signing 2 Santander types on short-term deals every 4 years!

[Laika]

I think "present value" is being misused and just means $500M CBA value (in other words, equal to $500M with no deferrals) 

[Brownie19]

45 minutes ago, Laika said:

I think "present value" is being misused and just means $500M CBA value (in other words, equal to $500M with no deferrals) 

100%.  At least that's how I'm interpreting it.

[Laika]

My guess...

Toronto offered close to 500m with deferrals and CBA / luxury tax value between 400 and 450m while Vlad wanted 585m with CBA value of just over 500m. So they were 85m apart in real dollars and somewhere between 50m and 100m apart in CBA / "present value" dollars.

To assume the worst of both sides... Jays offered $400m max in CBA value while Vlad asked for well north of $500m in CBA value but ewould have taken $500m in CBA value or is now leaking/expressing that as his worst acceptable deal.

I mean he's a nut, his agent is wacked, and you could say that Toronto is even a bit insane for offering what they did. Really dumb situation and the Vlad side is greedy as hell and this should leave a sour taste in fans mouths. 

[Eat My Shatkins]

29 minutes ago, Laika said:

My guess...

Toronto offered close to 500m with deferrals and CBA / luxury tax value between 400 and 450m while Vlad wanted 585m with CBA value of just over 500m. So they were 85m apart in real dollars and somewhere between 50m and 100m apart in CBA / "present value" dollars.

To assume the worst of both sides... Jays offered $400m max in CBA value while Vlad asked for well north of $500m in CBA value but ewould have taken $500m in CBA value or is now leaking/expressing that as his worst acceptable deal.

I mean he's a nut, his agent is wacked, and you could say that Toronto is even a bit insane for offering what they did. Really dumb situation and the Vlad side is greedy as hell and this should leave a sour taste in fans mouths. 

It has certainly left a sour taste in fans mouths, but unfortunately I think the majority of casual fans are (and will be) blaming the front office, and not the mentally challenged 1B who vastly over rates himself.

[RobinThicc]

lol at Vlad betting on himself

[BB17]

Jays should just offer 50M in bonsuses, like 5-10M extra for MVP, Silver slugger etc... If Vladdy really thinks he's worth that, then he has a chance to make that but you gotta actually perform.

Jays probably wanted to offer like 400 and then stretched it 450 as a take or leave it offer. There's something to be said for the power of walking away in a negotiation and I can't blame the Jays. I really have a hard time seeing Vladdy getting even 450 in Free agency.

[Delete_My_Account_Thanks]

10 hours ago, Laika said:

My guess...

Toronto offered close to 500m with deferrals and CBA / luxury tax value between 400 and 450m while Vlad wanted 585m with CBA value of just over 500m. So they were 85m apart in real dollars and somewhere between 50m and 100m apart in CBA / "present value" dollars.

To assume the worst of both sides... Jays offered $400m max in CBA value while Vlad asked for well north of $500m in CBA value but ewould have taken $500m in CBA value or is now leaking/expressing that as his worst acceptable deal.

I mean he's a nut, his agent is wacked, and you could say that Toronto is even a bit insane for offering what they did. Really dumb situation and the Vlad side is greedy as hell and this should leave a sour taste in fans mouths. 

Come on man.  I get railed on for being one sided but what is this?

[Governator]

I initially thought they were likely 150m+ apart and never going to come to an agreement.  This deal seems more plausible reading all the leaked info.  The Jays are obviously serious about re-signing him and if they are willing to risk up to 500m on him (deferred or not), the deal should get done plain and simple regardless of who you want to blame right now.

[Brock Beauchamp]

17 hours ago, Laika said:

I think "present value" is being misused and just means $500M CBA value (in other words, equal to $500M with no deferrals) 

Yes, this. It’s usually shorthand for “no deferrals” or “deferred money in today’s dollars”. 

[Terminator]

7 hours ago, Delete_My_Account_Thanks said:

Come on man.  I get railed on for being one sided but what is this?

railed on = the new tarred and feathered?

[Terminator]

Quote

Recent information made public has not come from the Blue Jays’ front office, a group that’s always been tight-lipped and kept a small circle on major contract negotiations, but everyone involved is still left to deal with this ongoing story in their own ways.

https://www.mlb.com/bluejays/news/vladimir-guerrero-jr-focused-on-winning-during-contract-year

It seems like Vlad wants the extension, he's just trying to get the Jays to come up more.

[Laika]

8 minutes ago, Terminator said:

https://www.mlb.com/bluejays/news/vladimir-guerrero-jr-focused-on-winning-during-contract-year

It seems like Vlad wants the extension, he's just trying to get the Jays to come up more.

First he asked Ortiz to leak $585m

Then he himself said he asked for "less than $600m"

Now he had his guys leak his $500m desire to the public 

In a week, we will hear that he might have accepted $450m guaranteed if Toronto offered it 

How low will we go?
 

[Brock Beauchamp]

5 minutes ago, Laika said:

First he asked Ortiz to leak $585m

Then he himself said he asked for "less than $600m"

Now he had his guys leak his $500m desire to the public 

In a week, we will hear that he might have accepted $450m guaranteed if Toronto offered it 

How low will we go?

[Brock Beauchamp]

15 minutes ago, Terminator said:

https://www.mlb.com/bluejays/news/vladimir-guerrero-jr-focused-on-winning-during-contract-year

It seems like Vlad wants the extension, he's just trying to get the Jays to come up more.

When does this become funny? Are we there yet?

[Delete_My_Account_Thanks]

13 minutes ago, Laika said:

First he asked Ortiz to leak $585m

Then he himself said he asked for "less than $600m"

Now he had his guys leak his $500m desire to the public 

In a week, we will hear that he might have accepted $450m guaranteed if Toronto offered it 

How low will we go?
 

Negotiation leaks are part of the process. Starting high and adjusting isn’t a sign of desperation — it’s just how things work. If Vlad’s camp is shifting from $585M rumors to $500M or potentially $450M, that’s not ‘going low,’ it’s being realistic. Flexibility in contract talks is smart business, not weakness

[Terminator]

21 minutes ago, Laika said:

First he asked Ortiz to leak $585m

Then he himself said he asked for "less than $600m"

Now he had his guys leak his $500m desire to the public 

In a week, we will hear that he might have accepted $450m guaranteed if Toronto offered it 

How low will we go?
 

He's going to take whatever the Jays final offer is right before the season starts.

[Laika]

I agree. He would be smart to lower his sights and accept a reasonable amount of money. 

I think we can all agree that if the rumours are true the Jays are already willing to offer a more than reasonable contract to him. 

Vlad's imposed negotiation deadline may have backfired on him. 

[Delete_My_Account_Thanks]

51 minutes ago, Laika said:

I agree. He would be smart to lower his sights and accept a reasonable amount of money. 

I think we can all agree that if the rumours are true the Jays are already willing to offer a more than reasonable contract to him. 

Vlad's imposed negotiation deadline may have backfired on him. 

Why would he need to lower his sights? 

$500M isn’t as far-fetched as people think. He’s still just 25 (for 3 more days) has shown MVP potential and his elite exit velocity metrics show that his power is sustainable. Players who combine age, production, and upside like Vlad are rare — and teams pay a premium for that.  If it's not the Jays then someone else will.

Add in the fact that he’s durable (playing 150+ games in three straight seasons) and has already proven he can thrive in a major market, (while being THE FACE of the franchise) and you’re looking at someone who can anchor our lineup for a decade. With the way the market’s trending, $500M to extend for our franchise cornerstone isn’t unreasonable at all.

[Delete_My_Account_Thanks]

57 minutes ago, Terminator said:

He's going to take whatever the Jays final offer is right before the season starts.

Maybe?  We'll see I guess.