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Posted

What defines a casual? Somebody that has watched the last ten years and is frustrated with zero playoffs wins? Squandering years of all-star talent? Maybe it is because they created such a bright future loaded with talent and payroll flexibility.

 

Posted
2 minutes ago, Chopi said:

What defines a casual? Somebody that has watched the last ten years and is frustrated with zero playoffs wins? Squandering years of all-star talent? Maybe it is because they created such a bright future loaded with talent and payroll flexibility.

 

Anybody who doesn’t worship the computer 

Half this place is at minimum satisfied with the job itchy and scratchy have done 

Community Moderator
Posted
13 minutes ago, Vladdywagon said:

How is it a no-lose?  Do you realize how annoying that is to hear as a die hard Jays fan who wants them replaced?

I've personally wanted management change since the 2022 off season, and trust me, there's been no "winning" for me.  The past 2 seasons have been brutal to slog through and this one would be even worse if ownership didn't bail out Shatkins by letting them jack the payroll to the moon.

I hardly feel that this season is "no-lose" for fans like me.  On the contrary, it's extremely frustrating.

But hey I can do the same spin that you did and say it's a no-lose for the fans of the front office who won't admit they were wrong.  If they win, they get to gloat.  If the team loses and Atkins gets fired they don't have to pretend to like him anymore.

It really is win-win for the Atkins fans

 

I'm not sure there are really fans of the front office. I think the closest you'll find is people who think Shapiro is good at what he's supposed to and are ambivalent about Ross Atkins. 

But yeah - I mostly agree with your last paragraph. It feels like this is coming to a head one way or another. The team probably isn't good enough to make the playoffs so he probably gets fired. On the off chance the team wins 90+ and goes on a bit of a run, maybe he gets to stick around, but if that happens a bunch of the things he did have probably worked out and the team would have won 89+ for the 4th time in 5 years, so maybe it wouldn't actually be the end of the world. 

Posted

Imagine winning 89+ games in 4 of 5 years and still having fans waste time creating and circulating petitions to fire them because they haven't won playoff games/series where the favoured team wins 55% of the time (almost a coin flip).

Probably a slim chance we win 89+ this year, but who knows.  

Very high probably Atkins is gone after this year.  Then we'll get to watch the same people who hate Aktins complain about the new GM.  It will be swell.

Posted
9 hours ago, max silver said:

Fans would have run AA out of town well before he eventually built a competitive team.

There was a huge fire AA thread, it was just as lame as the Shatkins s***, imo, both have done good jobs, but they've ultimately failed to this point, flags fly forever... Pat Gillick needs a shrine at the dome, lol.

 

Posted
8 hours ago, Vladdywagon said:

Imagine claiming the team won 89+ games in 4 of 5 years when in fact they've won 89+ games just 3 out of the last 8 while finishing above 3rd in the division once in those 8 years.

The first sentence is a perfect illustration of the illogical types of post that you regularly feature. You are using an 8 year sample size for the current front office when they've been in charge of the team for the last 9 years. It's perfectly fine and even probably reasonable to give the credit for the bulk of the 2016 success to AA as that was a team that he built. Having said that it also stands to reason that he should receive the blame for the next 3 seasons as well as those years were a direct result of the team that he built crumbling to dust and an eventual rebuild being forced upon the new front office.

Quote

Imagine being impressed with a front office missing the playoffs 4 out of the last 8 years while running franchise record payrolls almost every year when nearly half the teams make the playoffs anyways.

There is literally nobody on this board that is "impressed" with the current front office. The overall tenor of the comments tends to range from those who are disappointed with how things unfolded and are ready to see wholesale changes, and those like yourself who are downright angry at the front office. There you are again with using an 8 year sample, when the actual team that was built by the current group has largely been in place for the last 5 years alone. The payroll didn't even reach luxury tax levels until last season. In the previous years it settled more in the top 10 range, which is the same identical range that AA's teams were featured in as well. The "franchise record payrolls" sounds impressive at the surface, but even at the current levels it's only a top 5 payroll in MLB. The Blue Jays ran the highest payroll in the sport back in the early 90's, which is a far bigger deal that simply being in the top 5.

Quote

And imagine zero playoff wins in that same time frame.

This is a point where I am more disappointed that the players largely didn't perform on the field when it counted. I believe that there was sufficient talent to have success in the playoffs if the team played up to their capabilities when the games counted. There were some questionable decisions by the manager mixed in with a failure of the hitters in particular to plate any runs in the short wild card samples. MLB playoffs are notorious for being a crapshoot. Look no further than the Braves for evidence of this. I believe they have been MLB's second best regular season team over the last 3 years and they have a single win to show for it in the playoffs. 

Quote

And then imagine that front office talks down to the average fan of the team after crapping on the previous guy who actually did the thing (win a division titles and turn them into a major market team again)

I've literally never felt talked down to a single time by the current front office group. I could listen to Mark Shapiro speaks for hours as I find him to be very articulate and appreciate his passion. Atkins speaks like an AI that was implanted in a robot at times, but I don't find I particularly have any issues understanding the message.

Quote

while failing to deliver on their promises on "waves" of home grown talent

The farm system experienced a definite lull in recent seasons as they've been typically churning out one major league player in most recent seasons. I think there is actually a wave of talent in the upper level of the minors right now, but unfortunately the best of these guys have realistic ceilings of potentially good major league players vs potential stars.

Quote

after crapping on the previous guy who actually did the thing

We have a rumor that Shapiro was displeased with AA for selling the farm at the trade deadline. I have little doubt this rumor was worded in an especially salacious fashion to make it appear as though Shapiro was threatening to drop kick Alex from the top rope vs simply voicing his displeasure.

Quote

(win a division titles and turn them into a major market team again)

Nobody can take away the accomplishment from AA of winning the AL East division title, but take a deeper look at the state of the division at the time and it loses quite a bit of the lustre. The Blue Jays won the division with a whopping total of 93 wins. The second place team Yankees won all of 87 wins that season, and the third place Orioles only managed a paltry 81 wins. Contrast that with the meatgrinder that the 2020-2023 Blue Jays team competed within, when it required a minimum 99 win full season pace to take the division. AA's team would have finished second place at best in those seasons. Even in the 2024 when the division took a step back would have seen the 2015 team place second assuming the same end of season records.

Quote

And then imagine that same front office builds a team projected for 82 wins and a 38% chance of making the playoffs while running a 280 million dollar payroll, with an even bleaker looking future.

Let's imagine a little bit more, imagine 90% of the fan base wants them gone and can't stand them, yet they still have jobs.

The imagination is a wonderful thing.  But I don't have to imagine because it's all actually happening.

Not all projection systems are in agreement. Pecota for instance projects the team to win 85 games with a 46% chance at the playoffs. The Yankees by comparison are projected by this system to win 89 games, so there stands to be serious competition for the division this season as the teams in the division are very closely matched in overall talent. I don't know why people act like the fact that the team has a lot of available payroll is a bad thing. That will eventually allow the team to accelerate a future rebuild if one is required. It's far from a given that the current window is going to slam shut, and this will largely depend on whether Vlad is retained at the end of the season.

Posted
15 minutes ago, Laika said:

Starting a controversial thread and then reporting multiple posts in it that come at you 

= great way to annoy the mods
= great way to quickly achieve boy who cried wolf status 
= great way to get yourself some warnings for baiting/spamming 

*golf claps* 

This is a good point. If you know a thread is going to piss people off, don't be surprised when it does exactly that.

One aspect posters often overlook is the "beating the dead horse" aspect of a conversation and this applies to almost everybody at one point or another. If you're a staunch supporter/hater of literally anybody involved with the team, the more you repeat those same points across the site, the more people get irritated and punch back. Everybody knows how you feel, everybody knows your position. At some point, it's best to just talk about other things for awhile.

This only magnifies if you drag that pet peeve into every topic you post or create additional threads about it. Take a breath before hitting that submit button and think "have I already made this point a bunch of times in the past few days?"

Posted
36 minutes ago, max silver said:

The first sentence is a perfect illustration of the illogical types of post that you regularly feature. You are using an 8 year sample size for the current front office when they've been in charge of the team for the last 9 years. It's perfectly fine and even probably reasonable to give the credit for the bulk of the 2016 success to AA as that was a team that he built. Having said that it also stands to reason that he should receive the blame for the next 3 seasons as well as those years were a direct result of the team that he built crumbling to dust and an eventual rebuild being forced upon the new front office.

There is literally nobody on this board that is "impressed" with the current front office. The overall tenor of the comments tends to range from those who are disappointed with how things unfolded and are ready to see wholesale changes, and those like yourself who are downright angry at the front office. There you are again with using an 8 year sample, when the actual team that was built by the current group has largely been in place for the last 5 years alone. The payroll didn't even reach luxury tax levels until last season. In the previous years it settled more in the top 10 range, which is the same identical range that AA's teams were featured in as well. The "franchise record payrolls" sounds impressive at the surface, but even at the current levels it's only a top 5 payroll in MLB. The Blue Jays ran the highest payroll in the sport back in the early 90's, which is a far bigger deal that simply being in the top 5.

This is a point where I am more disappointed that the players largely didn't perform on the field when it counted. I believe that there was sufficient talent to have success in the playoffs if the team played up to their capabilities when the games counted. There were some questionable decisions by the manager mixed in with a failure of the hitters in particular to plate any runs in the short wild card samples. MLB playoffs are notorious for being a crapshoot. Look no further than the Braves for evidence of this. I believe they have been MLB's second best regular season team over the last 3 years and they have a single win to show for it in the playoffs. 

I've literally never felt talked down to a single time by the current front office group. I could listen to Mark Shapiro speaks for hours as I find him to be very articulate and appreciate his passion. Atkins speaks like an AI that was implanted in a robot at times, but I don't find I particularly have any issues understanding the message.

The farm system experienced a definite lull in recent seasons as they've been typically churning out one major league player in most recent seasons. I think there is actually a wave of talent in the upper level of the minors right now, but unfortunately the best of these guys have realistic ceilings of potentially good major league players vs potential stars.

We have a rumor that Shapiro was displeased with AA for selling the farm at the trade deadline. I have little doubt this rumor was worded in an especially salacious fashion to make it appear as though Shapiro was threatening to drop kick Alex from the top rope vs simply voicing his displeasure.

Nobody can take away the accomplishment from AA of winning the AL East division title, but take a deeper look at the state of the division at the time and it loses quite a bit of the lustre. The Blue Jays won the division with a whopping total of 93 wins. The second place team Yankees won all of 87 wins that season, and the third place Orioles only managed a paltry 81 wins. Contrast that with the meatgrinder that the 2020-2023 Blue Jays team competed within, when it required a minimum 99 win full season pace to take the division. AA's team would have finished second place at best in those seasons. Even in the 2024 when the division took a step back would have seen the 2015 team place second assuming the same end of season records.

Not all projection systems are in agreement. Pecota for instance projects the team to win 85 games with a 46% chance at the playoffs. The Yankees by comparison are projected by this system to win 89 games, so there stands to be serious competition for the division this season as the teams in the division are very closely matched in overall talent. I don't know why people act like the fact that the team has a lot of available payroll is a bad thing. That will eventually allow the team to accelerate a future rebuild if one is required. It's far from a given that the current window is going to slam shut, and this will largely depend on whether Vlad is retained at the end of the season.

Wow!

Posted
11 hours ago, Chopi said:

What defines a casual? Somebody that has watched the last ten years and is frustrated with zero playoffs wins? Squandering years of all-star talent? Maybe it is because they created such a bright future loaded with talent and payroll flexibility.

 

The primary issue that held the team back was the lack of performance when it mattered from the all star talent on the roster. If you examine the 4 year period in the current window from 2021-2024 peaked the club enjoyed peak combined performance from their two young cornerstone players once, and had one season where the duo was basically acceptable. The other two seasons saw a really disappointing combined contribution.

Bo and Vlad Combined FWAR

2021 11.2 FWAR

2022 8.1 FWAR

2023 5.2 FWAR

2024 5.8 FWAR

Imagine how much better the 2022 and 2023 teams could have been if both of Bo and Vlad performed up to their capabilities. 2023 in particular was a massive disappointment, and that team very well may have been challenging for the division instead of squeaking into a wild card series if the supposed core didn't disappoint to such a large degree.

Posted
2 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

This is a good point. If you know a thread is going to piss people off, don't be surprised when it does exactly that.

One aspect posters often overlook is the "beating the dead horse" aspect of a conversation and this applies to almost everybody at one point or another. If you're a staunch supporter/hater of literally anybody involved with the team, the more you repeat those same points across the site, the more people get irritated and punch back. Everybody knows how you feel, everybody knows your position. At some point, it's best to just talk about other things for awhile.

This only magnifies if you drag that pet peeve into every topic you post or create additional threads about it. Take a breath before hitting that submit button and think "have I already made this point a bunch of times in the past few days?"

It's really just attention seeking behavior. 

Posted
16 hours ago, BTS said:

This season is basically no-lose for the people who really want Atkins gone. Either the team makes the playoffs of he's fired. I'm betting on fired. 

Many thought Atkins would get fired after the Berrios fiasco when the organization looked like a joke. 

Then many thought both Atkins and Shapiro would get fired when we finished 5th worst or whatever it was in the MLB.

At this point, I'll be more shocked if they ever get fired lol.  

Posted
22 minutes ago, Jays24 said:

Many thought Atkins would get fired after the Berrios fiasco when the organization looked like a joke. 

Then many thought both Atkins and Shapiro would get fired when he finished 5th worst or whatever it was in the MLB.

At this point, I'll be more shocked if they ever get fired lol.  

Shapiro won't, Atkins not so much, but as you've said he's come along for 2 more years than expected. 

Posted
28 minutes ago, Spanky99 said:

Shapiro won't, Atkins not so much, but as you've said he's come along for 2 more years than expected. 

Shapiro tied himself to Atkins as soon as he didn't fire him the past 2 years. 

I'm honestly surprised they didn't mortgage whatever we do have in the farm to help win this season since it truly feels like an "all-in" year with so many years question marks after the year.  Maybe it's still coming or maybe he's scared to do it after scolding AA for it when he took over lol.  

Posted
1 minute ago, Jays24 said:

Shapiro tied himself to Atkins as soon as he didn't fire him the past 2 years. 

I'm honestly surprised they didn't mortgage whatever we do have in the farm to help win this season since it truly feels like an "all-in" year with so many years question marks after the year.  Maybe it's still coming or maybe he's scared to do it after scolding AA for it when he took over lol.  

This FO haven't acted like any type of lame duck fallacy that some folks bring up, it doesn't make any sense to me. Where have they shown this viewpoint, can someone remind me?

Posted
1 minute ago, Spanky99 said:

This FO haven't acted like any type of lame duck fallacy that some folks bring up, it doesn't make any sense to me. Where have they shown this viewpoint, can someone remind me?

Ya thats why I said orignally I'd be more shocked if they were actually fired.  Nothing about what they've done has shown they're fighting for their jobs.  

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