General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2025)

[HomeRunHomer]

Ya I don't see how how a team won't take a chance on him.  His 3 starts in September were trending better.  Even with s*** velocity, a 1.149 WHIP and 9.8 S09 is worth something.  Obviously sample size issues but he must have pissed people off.

 

[Laika]

I don't think so.

His MiLB numbers are horrible this year, he's 28 next year, he has s***** stuff now, he would require a 40 man spot and an arbitration price tag of like $2.2M which could pay for a few minor league free agents.

It's not that complicated. Moving on from dudes when they are cooked is a skill.

[Terminator]

If he was a model teammate who would take his new role as a AAA depth starter seriously then he would have been worth keeping.

But he'd be a malcontent and a distraction. So the 40-man spot and 2.2 mil is worth more and is where you start getting into middle reliever/bench player money.

Phil Maton, Mike Tauchman, Shawn Armstrong, Brooks Raley, and a ton of other guys all signed for less money than that.

Good move in ripping off the band-aid now.

 

[Laika]

A 2025 pro scouting report on Manoah would be 30 and 40 grades across the board and a FV that is not MLB relevant. Org guy projection

[Spanky__99]

1 hour ago, Laika said:

A 2025 pro scouting report on Manoah would be 30 and 40 grades across the board and a FV that is not MLB relevant. Org guy projection

Baseball. 101... yet I think he shouldn't have been Designated, time will tell.

 

[Jesusindashed]

More UMP BS unreal

[Jesusindashed]

Hes getting all the close calls 

[Masterbather]

I still like our chances to win the East. We still have the advantage.

Tomorrow is the key, gotta win that game.

The series against Tampa sets up decently for us.

The offense cannot stay dormant forever.

[Brownie19]

51 minutes ago, Masterbather said:

I still like our chances to win the East. We still have the advantage.

Tomorrow is the key, gotta win that game.

The series against Tampa sets up decently for us.

The offense cannot stay dormant forever.

Look at you representing the optimistic fan!  Well done.

[Jonn]

Each team has 4 games left. Just gotta match what the Yankees do and we win the East. They made it as difficult as they possibly can but just gotta find a way to win tomorrow.

[Stangstag]

Just now, Jonn said:

Each team has 4 games left. Just gotta match what the Yankees do and we win the East. They made it as difficult as they possibly can but just gotta find a way to win tomorrow.

Its gonna be tight

[jaysthebest]

Lol Varland is starting tomorrow  as an opener. Thank God we wasted Berrios today.

[Laika]

7 hours ago, jaysthebest said:

Lol Varland is starting tomorrow  as an opener. Thank God we wasted Berrios today.

Are you implying that you'd rather see Berrios start? You want to throw this game too? 

[Laika]

Lauer should be good to go so I am guessing he gets most of the innings after Varland

So it was really a choice of Lauer over Berrios. Perhaps some insight into the playoff roster pecking order there. If they have to use Scherzer or Lauer in a playoff game, it might make sense to have an opener like Varland ahead of them. That extra 2%. 

[Olerud363.354]

I haven't posted on the new board yet.    I wasn't the most positive poster on the previous iterations of this group so figured no reason to bring negativity to this new and better place, especially since the season was going so well until the last week.    

The Vlad/Bo iteration of the Blue Jays has not only NOT won a play off game, but have not one an important series second half of September (unless you count winning a series against the Yankees in 2020 to secure the Covid playoff spot).  Everyone loves to think the 2021 team would have gone on a deep playoff run, but conveniently forget the reason they didn't go on a playoff run was because they lost late September series to Tampa Bay and NY Yankees.   

For those of us who positivity doesn't come easily it feels like the goose is cooked and the Bo/Vlad Blue Jays will not ever get past the wild card round or even win a playoff game.  However In the spirit of this new board, that is a more polite and positive place I would like to bring up some positive outcomes that could happen the next week.  

1.  Good chance the end is quick.  Lose 4-1 or something to Crochet Tuesday and 5-2 Wednesday.  That just seems too obvious.  So likely the fates have worse in store, like getting to Crochet, leading 5-1 than Hoffman gives up a grand slam.  However if the obvious quick end happens it will be less painful than a big blown lead. 

2.  Next weeks games might be at Fenway.     This will spare more pain in person. 

3.  If at Rogers Center tickets might be cheap.

4.  Can look forward to the offseason and being mentioned in the last 3 teams in on Munetaka Murakami before he signs with the Yankees.

5.  This new board does seem much more civil with petty rivalries kept at bay.  Some of us from the old board would find perverse humor in a Seattle/Boston ALCS. 

6.  Bo is likely gone so if it is indeed a "Bo/Vlad Blue Jays never win a playoff game curse" that is over.  

7.  We are all positive people so if the Red Sox convince Bo to DH, and he wins the batting title and the world series for them Paul Molitor style, we will still cheer and be happy that Bo finally won a playoff game. 

8.  The bar is low to save the season.  If the Jays actually won like a single playoff game.  Like game 2 of the ALWC 8-5 but lost the series then it would be like winning the World Series.  The 'can't win a playoff game' monkey would be off their backs and everyone would have positive vibes going into the off-season. 

 

 

[Brownie19]

2 hours ago, Laika said:

Are you implying that you'd rather see Berrios start? You want to throw this game too? 

Exactly - who TF wants Berrios on the mound in anything but a blowout?  

[Brock Beauchamp]

6 minutes ago, Olerud363.354 said:

I haven't posted on the new board yet.    I wasn't the most positive poster on the previous iterations of this group so figured no reason to bring negativity to this new and better place, especially since the season was going so well until the last week.    

The Vlad/Bo iteration of the Blue Jays has not only NOT won a play off game, but have not one an important series second half of September (unless you count winning a series against the Yankees in 2020 to secure the Covid playoff spot).  Everyone loves to think the 2021 team would have gone on a deep playoff run, but conveniently forget the reason they didn't go on a playoff run was because they lost late September series to Tampa Bay and NY Yankees.   

For those of us who positivity doesn't come easily it feels like the goose is cooked and the Bo/Vlad Blue Jays will not ever get past the wild card round or even win a playoff game.  However In the spirit of this new board, that is a more polite and positive place I would like to bring up some positive outcomes that could happen the next week.  

1.  Good chance the end is quick.  Lose 4-1 or something to Crochet Tuesday and 5-2 Wednesday.  That just seems too obvious.  So likely the fates have worse in store, like getting to Crochet, leading 5-1 than Hoffman gives up a grand slam.  However if the obvious quick end happens it will be less painful than a big blown lead. 

2.  Next weeks games might be at Fenway.     This will spare more pain in person. 

3.  If at Rogers Center tickets might be cheap.

4.  Can look forward to the offseason and being mentioned in the last 3 teams in on Munetaka Murakami before he signs with the Yankees.

5.  This new board does seem much more civil with petty rivalries kept at bay.  Some of us from the old board would find perverse humor in a Seattle/Boston ALCS. 

6.  Bo is likely gone so if it is indeed a "Bo/Vlad Blue Jays never win a playoff game curse" that is over.  

7.  We are all positive people so if the Red Sox convince Bo to DH, and he wins the batting title and the world series for them Paul Molitor style, we will still cheer and be happy that Bo finally won a playoff game. 

8.  The bar is low to save the season.  If the Jays actually won like a single playoff game.  Like game 2 of the ALWC 8-5 but lost the series then it would be like winning the World Series.  The 'can't win a playoff game' monkey would be off their backs and everyone would have positive vibes going into the off-season. 

Welcome back, even if it's under suboptimal conditions. If you'd like your original account back, I can help get that sorted for you, just private message me.

[Brownie19]

Jays playoff tickets are now on sale if anyone cares.

[Stangstag]

32 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

Jays playoff tickets are now on sale if anyone cares.

Seems the ALDS is much more in-demand than the WC series. Makes sense. I bought tix for a potential WC game 3 since i know im downtown that day. And at that point the Jays will have had to win at least 1 game lol.

[Laika]

The sober truth might be that the Blue Jays just don't have good enough pitching to win from here on. 

Since August 1st, Toronto has a 98 Stuff+ and 98 Location+ as a staff. 

That's 24th out of all MLB teams (Pitching+). Their xERA is just as bad.

It wasn't much better earlier in the year. And the rank is the same since Sept 1st. 

If the playoffs began today, the Blue Jays 713 Runs Against would be the highest of all playoff teams. The only wild card contender with more runs against is Arizona. 

The pitching staff is probably worse than the Chicago White Sox for perspective (722 RA with a horrendous defense). 

The only teams that are *obviously worse* than Toronto at pitching this year are the Rockies, Nats, Angels, Marlins, Athletics, and DBacks. 

I know the offense has been the focus for the last week but the team is top 10 in runs for the year, since August 1st, and mid-pack since September 1st. 

I guess for the playoffs we just... hope the other team lines out a lot? Get lucky? Hope the opposing SP has a blister?

 

[Omar]

In their last 7 games, the Blue Jays have scored one run or less 6 times.  

The best starting pitching in the world couldn't have helped this team down the stretch.

[Laika]

7 minutes ago, Omar said:

In their last 7 games, the Blue Jays have scored one run or less 6 times.  

The best starting pitching in the world couldn't have helped this team down the stretch.

Some of that is suckage. Some of it is randomness.

Sept 23rd, lose 4-1, outhit 9-3
Jays had a .292 xBA vs Boston's .246 xBA!

Sept 18th, lose 4-0
Had just 4 hits on a .289 xBA!

Sept 17th, lose 2-1
Had just 4 hits on a .258 xBA! Kirk 3 run homer robbed. 

I mean MOST of it is the hitters sucking but there have been a few unlucky games and that makes the bad stretch into a brutal stretch. 

[Jimcanuck]

Luck is balancing out, too bad its now

[glory]

I'm just not sure why they didn't use Berrios for 4 innings last night after Scherzer. If you knew the next day was going to be a bullpen game where you needed everyone, then I don't get why you'd use Little down 4-0 and then Nance in the 9th. Oh well. 

[max silver]

3 hours ago, Laika said:

Some of that is suckage. Some of it is randomness.

Sept 23rd, lose 4-1, outhit 9-3
Jays had a .292 xBA vs Boston's .246 xBA!

Sept 18th, lose 4-0
Had just 4 hits on a .289 xBA!

Sept 17th, lose 2-1
Had just 4 hits on a .258 xBA! Kirk 3 run homer robbed. 

I mean MOST of it is the hitters sucking but there have been a few unlucky games and that makes the bad stretch into a brutal stretch. 

You can apply the same kind of thinking to individual slumps as well. I've looked at the underlying numbers of players at times and more often than not when a player hits a deep slump the expected statistics aren't nearly as bad as the results would lead you to expect.

[Jonn]

Berrios with a phantom IL stint. Think that’s the end of his Blue Jays career. His body language last night was very telling. It will likely result in the Jays eating a lot of money to send him elsewhere.

[max silver]

21 minutes ago, Jonn said:

Berrios with a phantom IL stint. Think that’s the end of his Blue Jays career. His body language last night was very telling. It will likely result in the Jays eating a lot of money to send him elsewhere.

Why would you assume this is a phantom IL stint? It was mentioned that Berrios has been dealing with this for awhile and his stuff is down to a large degree in recent months compared to the start of the season. 

[Laika]

19 minutes ago, Jonn said:

Berrios with a phantom IL stint. Think that’s the end of his Blue Jays career. His body language last night was very telling. It will likely result in the Jays eating a lot of money to send him elsewhere.

I dunno man. 

What if he actually has elbow inflammation? This could be bullish news. Some kind of surgery, rest, or rehab combo and he might have some useful starts left on this contract. 

Dude touched 97 and sat 94 for his entire career, including 2023 and 2024. This year he started off without any of that top end velo and lost like 2 mph over the year. If you look closely at the below chart this velo drop off may have started at the end of 2024. 

Nobody is going to want him. Toronto could not eat enough money to make any trade make sense. Unless there is a 1 for 1 bad contract swap for some other player owed a similar amount of dead money. 

Only hope is that he might have the kind of injury that can actually be corrected. Does he need elbow surgery? Not the worst thing in the world if he does. He was projecting to be an SP6 quality guy anyway. 

[Spanky__99]

2 minutes ago, max silver said:

Why would you assume this is a phantom IL stint? It was mentioned that Berrios has been dealing with this for awhile and his stuff is down to a large degree in recent months compared to the start of the season. 

Agreed, it would explain his 2nd half.

[glory]

It is suspicious timing right before a bullpen game putting a pitcher they won't use again on the IL for a fresh arm, but if it's a legit elbow injury, then might actually be a good thing as weird as that is to say. As mentioned above, Berrios' velo and stuff has declined badly this season, and there's no chance in hell that he's opting out of 2/48 after next season, so if an injury is causing the red flags in his profile then at least there's hope for some kind of turnaround. If he was healthy and the same guy with just diminished stuff and velocity, then it would be 3 more years of Tanner Roark on a big money contract.