Can Blue Jays’ High-Priced Core Bounce Back?

The Jays are committed to a high-priced core, with long-term deals for Vladimir Guerrero Jr., José Berríos, Andrés Giménez, Anthony Santander, and Alejandro Kirk. Most of these deals extend until at least 2029. Next year alone, this group will collectively earn approximately $114 million. Factor in about another $30 million for Dylan Cease, alongside the cost of filling out the rest of the roster, and the Jays will quickly find themselves closing in on the Competitive Balance Tax threshold, estimated to be around $250 million in 2027.

Long-term deals are always risky (Vernon Wells, anyone?), but these ones still have merit.

Even though he is in a down year relative to expectations, Guerrero’s massive extension was not solely about his year-to-year production. It solidified the franchise’s commitment to winning. It also served as a signal to the rest of Major League Baseball that ownership will spend and that Toronto is a destination. You can make an argument that subsequent major acquisitions, including trades and signings for Shane Bieber, Cease, and Kazuma Okamoto, were all a result of Guerrero's deal.

With a new collective bargaining agreement coming somewhere down the road, time will tell if these deals are reasonable or restrictive. Collectively, they don’t completely handcuff the team from trades or signing big-name free agents over the next few seasons, but they will undoubtedly make the front office a little more hesitant to keep spending.

Over his career, Guerrero has been an absolute gamer. Even before signing his mega-extension, he averaged 157 games per season over a three-year stretch, proving that his durability matches his star power.

The same cannot be easily said for the rest of the core. Key elements of the roster have faced significant stints on the injured list over the past two seasons, testing the team’s depth. Significant injuries, like the ones to Berríos and Santander, are often covered under insurance that most teams carry, especially for large contracts. While it stinks for fans, it stings for insurance companies that are footing some or all of the base salary while the player is off. The contracts might be covered, but it doesn’t mean the team is free to spend that money somewhere else.

Giménez was sidelined early last season and only appeared in 107 games. He has been looking a bit more mobile, especially on the bases leading up to the All-Star break, but beforehand had complained of hamstring and quad discomfort, and it showed in his hesitancy to advance on the basepaths.

Big contracts are all about return. Guerrero has shown he can be an MVP-calibre player.

When healthy, Berríos is a consistent starter who can rack up innings. Berríos produced a 3.65 ERA in 2023 across 189.2 innings and followed that with a 3.60 ERA in 2024 over 192.1 innings. Those back-to-back seasons reinforced his reputation as one of baseball's most durable starting pitchers. Even in 2025, when his ERA rose to 4.17, he still logged 166 innings in 31 appearances.

However, that trademark durability took a major hit. After undergoing full Tommy John surgery in May, Berríos will miss the rest of this year and likely won't return to the Blue Jays' rotation until the second half of next season.

Catchers seem to age faster than other players, but Kirk provides a lot of tools, and his average salary is commensurate with comparable catchers.

The outliers on the list of bigger contracts are Giménez and Santander. Giménez earned his contract with the Guardians by hitting .297 with an OPS of .837 in 2022. He had a 7.4 Baseball Reference Win Above Replacement (bWAR) that season. His bWAR has dropped in each of the last three seasons. According to Baseball Reference, Giménez's WAR has been on a steady decline: 5.0 in 2023, 4.0 in 2024, and 1.1 in 2025. This season, it sits at 0.6.

Baseball Savant still rates him highly with an 8 Fielding Run Value (96th percentile) and 10 Outs Above Average (99th percentile), but his offensive metrics remain among the weakest in the league, hence his precarious WAR.

JoJo Parker and Arjun Nimmala are making waves at the top of the team’s prospect rankings, but they aren’t expected to make the bigs until 2028 at the earliest.

Josh Kasevich is biding his time in Buffalo right now as a shortstop and third baseman. Based on estimations, he could make the jump at any point if there is an injury.

Regardless, there isn’t really a market for a weak-hitting, exceptional-fielding middle infielder with a big contract. Most likely, the Jays ride Giménez for a few more seasons then don’t pick up his option in 2030.

Santander is another matter. He has played a total of 54 regular season games and five in the postseason with the Jays since signing. Prior to becoming a Jay, he had averaged more than 153 games in the previous three seasons with the Orioles.

With George Springer’s contract expiring after this season, and if he gets healthy, Santander is probably the team’s DH moving forward. His contract runs until 2029 with a player opt-out and a team option, but neither is expected to be exercised. That contract, five years at $92.5 million, is the one that isn’t looking so great these days.

Every dollar committed to a single player impacts flexibility elsewhere on the roster. Every long-term deal carries the possibility of surplus value or dead money. Over the next three seasons, the success or failure of Toronto's payroll strategy will depend on whether these players produce at or near their peak levels.

The broader challenge facing the Jays is not any individual contract. It is the cumulative effect of all of them. Guerrero, Berríos, Giménez, Santander, and Kirk represent a massive percentage of the club's financial obligations moving forward.

With Daulton Varsho, Kevin Gausman, and Springer’s contracts expiring after this season, there is some financial relief on the horizon for the front office. Looking to the immediate future, the Jays will be looking for a couple of starters, a middle-order bat, and will possibly look to extend some younger players or someone like Ernie Clement, who will be eligible for arbitration for two more years.

Having a core of high-paid players isn’t a big issue unless they don’t play to a baseline expectation. When they underperform, it means the organization needs to find value elsewhere in the system, and that carries its own risk.

The parade of players that have been keeping the team afloat this season is an indication that the Jays are waiting for their core to return to form. A slew of moves before the trade deadline could indicate their patience is running thin.