General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2025)

[glory]

The offense (assuming May Jays is reasonably sustainable) and bullpen should be able to keep the team in games but it's hard to envision the rotation holding up with 3 SP's, 1 dud (Francis), and 1 question mark (Scherzer, Lauer, etc). The team has gotten a nice break with Barger and Lukes both turning into something (Barger in particular). Now they really need one of those on the SP side as well. They have to hope they can keep their heads above water long enough to make a trade at the deadline for a SP. Barger turning into a competent 3B (for now) and Rodriguez (for now) looking like a potential late inning relief option does give them a bit more clarity on what they need if they are still in the race in July. 

[jaysblue]

20 hours ago, glory said:

The offense (assuming May Jays is reasonably sustainable) and bullpen should be able to keep the team in games but it's hard to envision the rotation holding up with 3 SP's, 1 dud (Francis), and 1 question mark (Scherzer, Lauer, etc). The team has gotten a nice break with Barger and Lukes both turning into something (Barger in particular). Now they really need one of those on the SP side as well. They have to hope they can keep their heads above water long enough to make a trade at the deadline for a SP. Barger turning into a competent 3B (for now) and Rodriguez (for now) looking like a potential late inning relief option does give them a bit more clarity on what they need if they are still in the race in July. 

Have been really impressed with both Barger and Luke, along with Yariel in the pen.

Love Barger's arm at the hot corner and hope he can start hitting some out of the park. Potential is there. As for Lukes, what more can you ask for! Seems like he can be a very reliable fourth OF/platoon bat. As for Yariel, he looks comfortable now out of the pen and in high leverage spots. Looks like an extra weapon down in that pen behind Hoffman and Yimi (let's hope he comes back soon). 

Right now, I think the Jays needs are another big bat along with another mid-rotation starter. Can't rely on Scherzer remaining healthy even after he returns from the IL and like you said Francis might need to get sent down to AAA to work on a few things. Lauer has done a decent job as rotation depth and could probably stick as a No. 5 starter, but yeah would like another arm in the rotation which right now is kind of running on fumes. 

[gruber9292]

The last thing this franchise needs is to just be hovering at a final wild card spot with Shatkins still in control. Given that the teams in the Central and the West have vastly improved, the chances are slim that we nab a wild card spot. New management should have been already in place to start the year, this way the outlook and changes that have to be made can be made objectively without bias. Rogers put us in this horrible situation and like I've been saying for the past three years, we won't be better moving forward until Shatkins is gone. Unfortunately, it seems like the only way to get rid of them is for the fans to lose interest and have their bottom line slashed. Ed Rogers is a sucker while Shatkins are laughing all the way to the bank. 

[BB17]

1 hour ago, gruber9292 said:

The last thing this franchise needs is to just be hovering at a final wild card spot with Shatkins still in control. Given that the teams in the Central and the West have vastly improved, the chances are slim that we nab a wild card spot. New management should have been already in place to start the year, this way the outlook and changes that have to be made can be made objectively without bias. Rogers put us in this horrible situation and like I've been saying for the past three years, we won't be better moving forward until Shatkins is gone. Unfortunately, it seems like the only way to get rid of them is for the fans to lose interest and have their bottom line slashed. Ed Rogers is a sucker while Shatkins are laughing all the way to the bank. 

The team does seem to be stuck in the middle. Given the luxury tax penalties for multiple years in a row above the tax it would seem to be a waste to keep paying into the tax for an 85 win/50% playoff team. The last thing the team needs is to keep spending into the tax with mediocre rosters and then be hamstrung 2 years  from now once they have an actual playoff roster.

[Brownie19]

Heiny to the IL with a conky and Josh Walker DFA'd?

[jaysblue]

8 hours ago, Brownie19 said:

Heiny to the IL with a conky and Josh Walker DFA'd?

Liked Josh Walker damn. Think there was something there with his arm. 

[glory]

12 hours ago, jaysblue said:

Have been really impressed with both Barger and Luke, along with Yariel in the pen.

Love Barger's arm at the hot corner and hope he can start hitting some out of the park. Potential is there. As for Lukes, what more can you ask for! Seems like he can be a very reliable fourth OF/platoon bat. As for Yariel, he looks comfortable now out of the pen and in high leverage spots. Looks like an extra weapon down in that pen behind Hoffman and Yimi (let's hope he comes back soon). 

Right now, I think the Jays needs are another big bat along with another mid-rotation starter. Can't rely on Scherzer remaining healthy even after he returns from the IL and like you said Francis might need to get sent down to AAA to work on a few things. Lauer has done a decent job as rotation depth and could probably stick as a No. 5 starter, but yeah would like another arm in the rotation which right now is kind of running on fumes. 

Yeah the rotation isn’t going to last 162 as is. Scherzer might be cooked, and Manoah is coming back from TJS with no guarantee he’s going to be good when healthy. I’m not sure there is help on the way internally any time soon, If the offense was consistently good then they might be able to work around it, but they look great one week and 2024 levels the following week, so I have no idea what to expect from the bats. Probably closer to average offensively, which won’t be enough. They need to be the May offense more consistently to have a shot.

I’ve said before this team either needs to go on a real run or fall way out of it. Being around .500 and within 4-5 games of a playoff spot with a lame duck front office is not ideal. 

[MikeM2]

We finally got some internal development and this is the year Ross strikes out on all his mlb transactions, of course 

[Orgfiller]

2 hours ago, MikeM2 said:

We finally got some internal development and this is the year Ross strikes out on all his mlb transactions, of course 

We calling Yimi and Hoffman dud signings now? Hoffman has elite peripherals across the board, he's just been unlucky with HR/FB luck. Even with his s***** splitter his xERA and xFIP are both extremely good, the K/BB is excellent. Yimi's shoulder could certainly be a concern although at least he had no blowups before he got injured.

[Laika]

1 hour ago, Orgfiller said:

We calling Yimi and Hoffman dud signings now? Hoffman has elite peripherals across the board, he's just been unlucky with HR/FB luck. Even with his s***** splitter his xERA and xFIP are both extremely good, the K/BB is excellent. Yimi's shoulder could certainly be a concern although at least he had no blowups before he got injured.

okay but Santander Scherzer Gimenez have -0.5 WAR combined for like $49M AAV and Spencer Horwitz 

imagine if he didn't whiff on all three of those. 

could have just paid Gleyber Torres but nooooo defense fetish got in the way 

admittedly a lot of the other FA hitters are flopping and Alonso/Soto/Bregman never wanted to come here so hard to criticize the Santander whiff 

Toronto should sue Max Scherzer 

[max silver]

26 minutes ago, Laika said:

okay but Santander Scherzer Gimenez have -0.5 WAR combined for like $49M AAV and Spencer Horwitz 

imagine if he didn't whiff on all three of those. 

could have just paid Gleyber Torres but nooooo defense fetish got in the way 

admittedly a lot of the other FA hitters are flopping and Alonso/Soto/Bregman never wanted to come here so hard to criticize the Santander whiff 

Toronto should sue Max Scherzer 

Both of Santander and Giminez are bound to have much better numbers by the end of the season. I know you're trolling at least a little bit here but I know you're better than to make any kind of definitive determinations on a 3-5 year deal only 2 months into the first season.

[Orgfiller]

35 minutes ago, Laika said:

okay but Santander Scherzer Gimenez have -0.5 WAR combined for like $49M AAV and Spencer Horwitz 

imagine if he didn't whiff on all three of those. 

could have just paid Gleyber Torres but nooooo defense fetish got in the way 

admittedly a lot of the other FA hitters are flopping and Alonso/Soto/Bregman never wanted to come here so hard to criticize the Santander whiff 

Toronto should sue Max Scherzer 

Yeah of course, I will say I was being somewhat pedantic since he mentioned he whiffed on all the MLB transactions from this offseason. Santander and Scherzer have been clear big negatives, no question about it. Scherzer in particular does seem like he totally scammed us.

Gimenez I'm still willing to give a pass on, because he's some batted ball luck correction away from being a very positive contributor on the team. The defense and baserunning has been as advertised, and if his actual wOBA matched his .320 xwOBA figure he would be looking like a core piece.

[Laika]

12 minutes ago, max silver said:

Both of Santander and Giminez are bound to have much better numbers by the end of the season. I know you're trolling at least a little bit here but I know you're better than to make any kind of definitive determinations on a 3-5 year deal only 2 months into the first season.

You have to be more nimble than this, Max. Adjust your perceptions when new information arrives. 

How much would Scherzer, Gimenez, and Santander attract on the open market today? 

A lot less than they are making! 

[max silver]

7 minutes ago, Laika said:

You have to be more nimble than this, Max. Adjust your perceptions when new information arrives. 

How much would Scherzer, Gimenez, and Santander attract on the open market today? 

A lot less than they are making! 

That would be a great point if free agents signed based on mid season performance metrics instead of their end of season numbers.

[MikeM2]

2 hours ago, Orgfiller said:

We calling Yimi and Hoffman dud signings now? Hoffman has elite peripherals across the board, he's just been unlucky with HR/FB luck. Even with his s***** splitter his xERA and xFIP are both extremely good, the K/BB is excellent. Yimi's shoulder could certainly be a concern although at least he had no blowups before he got injured.

Santander Gimenez Green Scherzer. Usually Ross would hit at least 2 out of 4 of those.

[Terminator]

Gimenez's xStats are fine and if he were getting the expected results he'd be on his way to a 4 WAR season, perhaps even with the injury.

Taters looks horrible though. I guess we just have to pray that he gets hot after a slow start like he did last year. Idk how much of his struggles is due to him DH'ing so much this year, but his stats take a nosedive whenever he isn't out in the field. That's not ideal for a guy who should be a DH.

Scherzer is looking like a big whiff.

[Laika]

2 hours ago, max silver said:

That would be a great point if free agents signed based on mid season performance metrics instead of their end of season numbers.

Values go up and down. In this case, they have gone way down! Oops, Ross! 

[Laika]

In other Blue Jays Free Agent News

It looks like Spooner Turnbull is getting starts in Dunedin and getting destroyed 

[Terminator]

9 minutes ago, Laika said:

Values go up and down. In this case, they have gone way down! Oops, Ross! 

Taters has been so bad that he's materially revised his projections downward about a full WAR moving forward. 2.8 WAR player now seen as a 1.9 WAR player. Not good!

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/anthony-santander/14551/stats?position=OF

[Terminator]

11 minutes ago, Laika said:

In other Blue Jays Free Agent News

It looks like Spooner Turnbull is getting starts in Dunedin and getting destroyed 

His last one was bad but I fully expect him to rebound against the Clearwater Threshers tonight. 

[Laika]

35 minutes ago, Terminator said:

Taters has been so bad that he's materially revised his projections downward about a full WAR moving forward. 2.8 WAR player now seen as a 1.9 WAR player. Not good!

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/anthony-santander/14551/stats?position=OF

careful man, you are evaluating a player based on "mid season performance metrics" you might want to check with max first this may not be kosher 

[Pendleton]

1 hour ago, Terminator said:

His last one was bad but I fully expect him to rebound against the Clearwater Threshers tonight. 

 

 

[Terminator]

2 minutes ago, Pendleton said:

 

 

If Turnbull sucks again vs. a bunch of teenagers then our pitching depth is officially shot and so is any hope of the big league team contending

So I guess you could say that tonight's game in Clearwater is a must-win for the Dunedin Blue Jays

[max silver]

58 minutes ago, Laika said:

careful man, you are evaluating a player based on "mid season performance metrics" you might want to check with max first this may not be kosher 

I made the mistake of believing you were smarter than the typical Reddit poster. I'll be sure to adjust my expectations moving forward. Santander has nearly 2000 plate appearances over 3 seasons where he was a potent slugger, but of course just like the typical Reddit poster you apply a massive dose of recency bias and only count what's happened in a Blue Jay uniform, while pretending like the rest of the player's history has ceased to exist. 

[max silver]

1 hour ago, Terminator said:

Taters has been so bad that he's materially revised his projections downward about a full WAR moving forward. 2.8 WAR player now seen as a 1.9 WAR player. Not good!

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/anthony-santander/14551/stats?position=OF

A good chunk of that is based on a reduction in his defensive projections. He's been very bad in right field so far this season, but the offensive projections are pretty similar to his 2022/2023 numbers which was probably a more realistic expectation vs the career season from 2024. He's hit much better when in the field which creates a bit of a conundrum given the poor metrics in right field, but his small sample of innings in left field are solid enough so that could be a better place to park him in the field.

[Laika]

16 minutes ago, max silver said:

I made the mistake of believing you were smarter than the typical Reddit poster. I'll be sure to adjust my expectations moving forward. Santander has nearly 2000 plate appearances over 3 seasons where he was a potent slugger, but of course just like the typical Reddit poster you apply a massive dose of recency bias and only count what's happened in a Blue Jay uniform, while pretending like the rest of the player's history has ceased to exist. 

As explained, the projection systems are already downgrading him. It's not just recency bias - it's placing his player profile and age into a complex analysis system which can be either Steamer or ZiPS or my huge brain.

If you just want to look at the last 2000 PA and trust the man, you are basically as smart as the "let's sign Kris Bryant" era Colorado Rockies 

[max silver]

1 minute ago, Laika said:

As explained, the projection systems are already downgrading him. It's not just recency bias - it's placing his player profile and age into a complex analysis system which can be either Steamer or ZiPS or my huge brain.

If you just want to look at the last 2000 PA and trust the man, you are basically as smart as the "let's sign Kris Bryant" era Colorado Rockies 

The projection systems downgraded him for the rest of the season, but to numbers largely in line with what he did in 2022/2023. It's not like he's been projected to be a below average bat for the rest of his career. That will largely depend on what he does for the rest of the season, and will fluctuate accordingly based on his performance metrics as the season progresses. 

[Spanky__99]

My huge brain got me laughing out loud... 😅

[hanton]

Ask yourself why we don't have hitters that do nice things like this

 

[Terminator]

4 hours ago, Terminator said:

If Turnbull sucks again vs. a bunch of teenagers then our pitching depth is officially shot and so is any hope of the big league team contending

So I guess you could say that tonight's game in Clearwater is a must-win for the Dunedin Blue Jays

Breath a sigh of relief. Turnbull threw 4+ innings strong.